Sir Peter Soulsby has resigned his seat in order to run for Mayor of Leicester. The by-election will be on the same day as that election and as the City Council elections.
Brief Profile
Since 1974 the city of Leicester has been divided like a cake into three constituencies starting in the inner city and fanning out to the suburbs. As the name indicates, Leicester South covers the southern third of the city and stretches from the city centre to the peripheral estate of Eyres Monsell. It is the most diverse constituency in one of the most diverse cities in Europe and includes posh suburbs like Aylestone, white estates, inner city decay, students (the constituency includes two universities), the proletarian Gujarati Muslim district of Spinney Hills and various humdrum residential areas that were once middle class (and white) and which are increasingly neither. But don't let the existence of Aylestone and so on district you. Leicester is a depressed industrial city and this constituency has serious problems with unemployment and related social evils.
As to which areas vote for which parties, local politics in Leicester is at best extremely complicated and voting patterns can be hard to comprehend, but it's basically true to say that Labour are strongest in the northern (that is, inner city) part of the constituency and (to a latter extent) while the Tories and LibDems are both stronger in the suburbs. The Greens won two seat in the Castle ward (covers the city centre) but have since lost both to Labour in by-elections, one of which followed the bizarre death of the incumbent. Eyres Monsell has particularly wacky local voting patterns, perhaps a consequence of its isolation.
When created it was a marginal seat, but white flight began to move it towards Labour and by 1992 it was a safe seat and so it remained until Jim Marshall (a quiet left-winger who focused on constituency issues. First elected in 1974, defeated in 1983, returned to the Commons in 1987) suddenly died in 2004. A constituency with large Muslim and student populations was perhaps not an easy defence for Labour in the aftermath of the Iraq invasion, and the seat was lost to the LibDems despite the opposition of Labour's candidate (current incumbent Sir Peter Soulsby; previously a leading local politician in Leicester who had already lost his seat on the council as a consequence of the invasion) to the war. The victorious Parmjit Singh Gill was inaccurately hailed as the LibDem's first ever non-white MP before revealing himself to be a useless dud, at which point he sank without trace. Soulsby easily beat him in 2005 and greatly increased his majority in 2010.
Before 1974 the bulk of the constituency was in Leicester South West (Leicester South East was a suburban constituency dominated by Oadby and Wigston; neither of which were in Leicester before or after local government reform), long a safe Labour seat that was lost to the Tories in a by-election at the height of the Wilson government's unpopularity. Its MP from 1950 until 1967 was Herbert Bowden, a right-winger who served as the Party's deputy Chief Whip in the 1950s and who served in the Wilson cabinet before being kicked upstairs to become the Chairman of the Independent Television Authority. A different Leicester South existed before 1950 (not sure of the exact boundaries) and fell to Labour for the first time in 1945.
Past Results
2010: Labour 45.6, LDem 26.9, Con 21.4, BNP 3.0, Green 1.6, UKIP 1.5
2005: Labour 39.4, LDem 30.6, Con 17.8, RUC 6.4, Green 3.3, Verdigris 1.4, SLP 0.7, Ind 0.5
2004: LDem 34.9, Labour 29.3, Con 19.7, RUC 12.7, SLP 0.9, six others 2.52001: Labour 54.5, Con 23.0, LDem 17.2, Green 2.9, SLP 1.6, UKIP 0.8
1997: Labour 58.0, Con 23.7, LDem 13.8, RP 2.5, SLP 1.3, ND 0.6
Majorities before 1997
Leicester South: 1992 Lab 17.7, 1987 Lab 3.4, 1983 Con 0.0, 1979 Lab 3.8, 1974O Lab 2.3, 1974F Con 3.2
Leicester South West: 1970 Con 0.3, 1967b Con 15.8, 1966 Lab 17.3, 1964 Lab 11.9, 1959 Lab 7.3, 1955 Lab 11.7, 1951 Lab 16.8, 1950 Lab 20.2
Leicester South: 1945 Lab 2.7, 1935 Con 30.0, 1931 Con 53.6, 1929 Con 4.9, 1924 Con 20.3, 1923 Lib 15.8, 1922 Con 0.4, 1918 CoCon 54.4
Labour Market Statistics
Unemployment Rate: 10.2*
JSA Claimant Count: 5.9
JSA Claiments per Vacancy Available: 3.6
Total Economically Inactive: 36.0*
Gross Weekly Pay for workers in full-time employment: £412.4 (£89.4 below GB average)
*As of June 2010. The second figure is not a misprint.
Census Statistics - 2001
Percentage White British: 57.2
Percentage Indian: 25.0
Percentage Muslim: 19.3
Percentage Hindu: 8.7
Percentage Sikh: 4.2
Percentage Student: 17.4
Percentage in Managerial Occupations: 10.5 (low)
Percentage in Professional Occupations: 14.4 (fairly high)
Percentage in Process, Plant & Machine Occupations: 13.4 (very high)
Percentage in Elementary Occupations: 14.8 (high)
Percentage employed in Manufacturing: 21.1 (high)
Percentage employed in Education: 11.1 (high)
Percentage with BA or higher: 21.4 (slightly above average)
Percentage with No Qualifications: 33.9 (high)
Percentage with Mortgage: 31.2 (low)
Percentage Social Renting: 25.8 (high)
Percentage Private Renting: 15.2 (high)
Candidates
The Labour candidate is Jonathan Ashworth, a well-connected Party insider. Ashworth is currently the Head of Party Relations to Miliband, and has previously been the Deputy Political Secretary to Brown. He is also married to Emilie Oldknow, the East Midlands Regional Director).
The Liberal Democrat candidate will be
useless former MP Parmjit Singh Gill (not surprising given that he literally owns large parts of the local party), currently a councillor for the Stoneygate ward. He has been the LibDem candidate in the constituency for a decade now. Zaffar Haq. Who was their candidate in Harborough in 2010 and Leicester West in 2005. He was also an unsuccessful candidate for the City Council (Castle ward) in 2007.
The Conservatives have nominated Jane Hunt who is a councillor in Loughborough.
The UKIP candidate is
Abhijit Pandya.The Official Monster Raving Loony Party has a candidate; Alan Hope, who is from Hampshire.
