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https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1791985932523938105

Why is NM Safe D? Also, I think NH is more likely to vote to the left of ME-AL than it is to the right of MN.

To be clear any state I think will be within 15, even if it’s 14.9 (this is roughly where I think KS ends up) gets the “likely” treatment from me

In that case, I think Safe D NJ is a little bit crazy.

Polls in all rust belt states show the race within the margin of error … so I don’t get you saying there is “no data” to back it up.

In that case why not call them toss-ups?

Also, there’s more to predicting an election then just polls, for example, fundamentals, fundraising, specials etc all favour Dems. I’m taking this into account

Is presidential approval rating not a “fundamental” now? How about voters’ opinions on the state of the economy?

GA?

Trump doing really well in Georgia which is GA, might be the reddest swing state.

People say the rust belt will be a great place to live later in the century if climate change and resource constraints really hit home, lots of water, arable land, no major natural disaster phenomena, so I think. Detroit will rise again, cities have long lives

I hope this is the case, but OTOH, what's stopping people from just moving to Columbus or Green Bay instead? The cities in the Midwest that are growing currently aren't the ex-industrial places; they're metro areas that are more like sunbelt cities except for location.

FWIW I do think redrawing the states is a good idea; there are a few too many and there are a lot with nonsensical borders. But I don't think they should be redrawn willy-nilly or to have equal population.

50 states would remain, but each of them would have as close to equal as a population as possible neglecting the need to create propositional representation in Congress.

IMO the obvious solution to this is to actually have proportional representation, not to redraw basic government entities for no reason constantly. Imagine how annoying this would be!

I think they will win at least one of them probably MI-07 since that's the part of the state where downballot Rs probably outperform Trump whereas MI-08 is more ancestrally Dem.

GA?

I think I'm finished with maps for both Trump and Biden 2020 based on the normal apportionment above but I never bothered posting them because I didn't think the community was interested.

Feel free to use this thread to post Biden districts based on normal apportionment. If you want.

Reapportionment method: 1 seat given to each state by default. 385 assigned by population using a single divisor, with fractions being round down.
All districts within states will seek to have roughly equal numbers of Biden voters relative to other districts in the same state.

You should use the actual method used by the US House to be honest, I could do the calculations for you if you're interested.

Feel free to run the calculations, I'm curious to see what would change from the numbers I've got. I'm effectively doing an apportionment method favorable to bigger states, as opposed to one favoring smaller ones, or Huntington-Hill, which is in the middle.

Alabama   5
Alaska   1
Arizona   9
Arkansas   2
California   59
Colorado   10
Connecticut   6
Delaware   2
(DC would have 2 seats if we count it)
Florida   28
Georgia   13
Hawaii   2
Idaho   2
Illinois   18
Indiana   7
Iowa   4
Kansas   3
Kentucky   4
Louisiana   5
Maine   2
Maryland   11
Massachusetts   13
Michigan   15
Minnesota   9
Mississippi   3
Missouri   7
Montana   1
Nebraska   2
Nevada   4
New Hampshire   2
New Jersey   14
New Mexico   3
New York   28
North Carolina   14
North Dakota   1
Ohio   14
Oklahoma   3
Oregon   7
Pennsylvania   18
Rhode Island   2
South Carolina   6
South Dakota   1
Tennessee   6
Texas   28
Utah   3
Vermont   1
Virginia   13
Washington   13
West Virginia   1
Wisconsin   9
Wyoming   1

I think I'm finished with maps for both Trump and Biden 2020 based on the normal apportionment above but I never bothered posting them because I didn't think the community was interested.

He might get bigger swings with some states' blacks than others. The thing to look for is where the AAs in a state are more non-college and low income, I'm not sure yet if there's an urban/rural difference. The Democratic vote is so high with them everywhere but perhaps in some states there is more vote to lose than in others.