Another 'who would you vote for' scenario!

[Antonio the Sixth]

-16% !

Well, seems positive results anyways.

[Hash]

-16% !

Well, seems positive results anyways.

The Conservative administration from January to November was a trainwreck: social conservatism in a generally socially liberal country, unpopular environmental legislation, unpopular conflict abroad, complimented by scandals and a resurgent opposition.

And the Conservatives are having a hard time coming back, even after two years, due mostly to corruption in a large Conservative-governed city and them proposing neoliberal reforms and budget cuts (health care, education) in a recession. Essex isn't very neoliberal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

-16% !

Well, seems positive results anyways.

The Conservative administration from January to November was a trainwreck: social conservatism in a generally socially liberal country, unpopular environmental legislation, unpopular conflict abroad, complimented by scandals and a resurgent opposition.

And the Conservatives are having a hard time coming back, even after two years, due mostly to corruption in a large Conservative-governed city and them proposing neoliberal reforms and budget cuts (health care, education) in a recession. Essex isn't very neoliberal.

Very good. Glad to see things are going well somewhere, even if it's a fantasyland.

[HappyWarrior]

I'd be part of the English wing of the Farmer Labor Party.

[Hash]

I'd be part of the English wing of the Farmer Labor Party.

Farmer Labor

lol

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Conservative, perhaps Liberal on occasion.

[k-onmmunist]

Liberal, possibly lean Green, if the Centre are in power.

[Hash]

An overview of each party's electorate;

The Liberal Democrats have a rather wide electoral base. Their original base upon its foundation was with the non-Communist working-class and the lower middle-class. The slow demise of the Liberal Party in the late 1970s and 1980s have shifted a part of the Liberal Party's urban upper middle-class and Catholic electorate to the LibDems. Today, the LibDems are strong in working-class areas, residential middle-class areas, ethnic minorities, Catholics and Francophones.

The Conservative electorate is traditionally more suburban, English Protestant, white, and largely affluent. The Conservatives have seldom broken through with Catholics, their last major breakthrough with Francophone voters was in 2006 and the last time a plurality of Catholics voted Tory was in 1986. In the November 2007 landslide, the Conservative gains with Francophones and affluent ethnic minorities were wiped out in the LibDem's favour and a lot of their suburban liberal seats were gained by the Greens.

The Green electorate is rather two-fold. Firstly, there is the "old Green" electorate, younger liberals concentrated in cities and in suburbs. Secondly, there is the "new Green" electorate, mostly inherited from the Liberals. This new Green electorate is based in poorer rural areas, the arid deserts of southern Essex, but also in old middle-class suburbs.

The Federation of the United Left's electorate is generally, to date, left-wing yuppies in urban centres who are disappointed by the Green's centrism. These were, ironically, the same yuppies who founded the Green Party. There is growing working-class support, especially in old manufacturing areas hard hit by the recession, where voters are unhappy at the LibDem's coalition with Greens and the right-wing drift of the LibDems under Rosenfeld. Its leader and sole MP, Robert Gates, was elected in Aruba-Thorncliffe, an old suburban slum-turned-hippie left-wing area.

The Essexian Party's electorate is more rural and nationalist than the Conservative electorate, so a large part of it reflected the Conservative vote. However, it did poll well in 2006 in old working-class areas, most of that protest vote has returned to the LibDem fold or now votes FUL.

Unsurprisingly, the Farmer-Labor / Ligue Agricole vote is largely rural, where they win around 6-10% of the vote. Its leader, Aline Vasseur (LA), was elected in January 2007 in Frontenac, an old rural community where the construction of a large airport and the connected expropriation of farmers is a hot button issue.

The Essexian National Front's rapid rise has come from not-too-affluent suburban areas close to large ethnic communities, or white flight areas. Since a lot of the ENF's vote is also a former Conservative protest vote, a fair share follows the Conservative Party's vote. Unlike some far-right parties in Europe, the ENF has had little success in run-down working-class areas, most of the protest vote there is FUL.

[Hash]

I shall continue bumping this, partly to get new responses and to provide a storyline update.

New polling:

Conservative 34%
LibDem 24%
Green 23%
FUL 12%
ENF 3.5%
SDP 1.5%
FL-LA 1%
Others 1%

Background: The Conservatives had been closing the gap with the LibDems since early December, due to poorer-than-expected economic results in 2009 and a better electoral strategy. They stole the lead in mid-January with a LibDem party financing scandal and the gap widened with the announcement of a minor tax hike across the board in 2010 to bridge a growing deficit. The Conservative talk of cutting spending and slightly cutting taxes seems popular, and has resulted in them taking middle-class votes from the LibDems, while the FUL has gained from working-class discontent at LibDem-Green policies.

Disapproval rating for Rosenfeld (PM) and the LD-Green government is 57%.

In May, there are local elections in which the Conservatives are favoured to pick up a number of seats and councils. There is also a municipal election in Rutford. Rutford is a large and diverse city, which is also plurality French-speaking. Its LibDem mayor, Alain Maillet, has held office since 1998 but he faces a tough challenge from Mark Schuler, a Conservative businessman and former CFO. Both are tied at 28%.

[Bo]

Conservative, perhaps Liberal on occasion.

^^^^^^^^^^^

[Hash]

Conservative, perhaps Liberal on occasion.

^^^^^^^^^^^

You make no sense.

[Hash]

Bump again. I will add more to this.

[Хahar 🤔]

Please do.

[Hash]

Please do.

Mmmh. What should I add next?