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Author Topic: Montana  (Read 9886 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« on: January 09, 2010, 06:57:31 AM »

I cannot guess why in a state that is overwhelmingly white, rural, with a lot of conservative christians (Mormons, evangelicals) located in a region which is a GOP stronghold (Wyoming gave 65% to the old guy, Idaho 61%) without many working class voters, and which in 2004 backed Bush by 59%, Obama received almost the same amount of votes that his opponent. Native Americans live in large numbers  in MT but the percentage of them in South Dakota is higher and Obama's result was better in MT.

I hope you can enlighten me Wink Thank you in advance
Because it is a state with a lot of working class voters and without Mormons.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2010, 07:01:43 AM »

Native Americans help a bit, but they don't make up a terribly large portion of the population and have low turn-out.
Much better turnout than in South Dakota or the Southwest. (Montana's State Legislature is gerrymandered to elect Natives in proportion to their numbers - some of these districts have quite small native majorities, but they all elect Natives. Now, compare South Dakota...)

Nader's success was of course partly due to the state being wholly uncompetitive in 2000 - the same thing happened in Alaska. And in Austin.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2010, 12:21:06 PM »

Which seat did Tester represent? It's possible that the seat only went Native-held in 2006. Then again, he was certainly *born* in Havre, which is in a whitewashed district neighboring a Native-majority one.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2010, 04:47:25 AM »

Which seat did Tester represent? It's possible that the seat only went Native-held in 2006. Then again, he was certainly *born* in Havre, which is in a whitewashed district neighboring a Native-majority one.

I'm not sure what his seats nor am I familiar with the Montana state Senate map, though Tester is from Chouteau County after looking it up...so probably not after all. If it includes Hill and Blaine counties than it makes sense though, you have a district where the Democrats heavily rely on the Native vote but they don't make a majority and can't elect their own. Much like blacks in all the white Democrat-held seats in Georgia and North Carolina.
Yah, the area is cut up to have a Native Senator and a White Senator:

SD 8 (HD 15 & 16), SD 16 (HD 31 & 32) and SD 21 (HD 41 & 42) are the Native Districts.

Oh, and the new Representative of HD 15 is Mr Frosty Calf Boss Ribs. Cheesy

And while I was at it, I also checked what District Tester represented: SD 15 (that area elected a Democrat? Wtf? Currently it's delegation is all-Republican again. Excluding the portion of Chouteau, and including the portion of McCone not in the district, McCain took 67% here. Also, the district is just 0.9% Native American.)
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2010, 03:13:31 PM »


I assume that ugly appendage sticking out at the east end of 16 is part of a Native gerrymander?
HD31, ie the populated parts of Fort Peck Reservation. In a sense HD32 is much more of a gerrymander, combining Rocky Boy's, Fort Belknap and a bit of Fort Peck. And of course the Senate grouping is an obvious case of gerrymandering. (The really strange district is HD15, combining the actually Native settled parts of the Flathead Rez with the southern end of Blackfeet, straddling a *quite* wild and empty bit of the Continental Divide to do so.)
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2010, 04:25:43 PM »

Isn't that area in the middle of that district basically just a national forest? Looks that way on a map.
I didn't bother to doublecheck a map before I spoke, but I'd suppose so.
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