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It’s possible but it’s been a while since polling underestimated Dems in a significant manner in a presidential year. The only real examples are midterms such as 06, and 22.

Also, in what world were 2010 and 2014 not red waves?
Dems lost 63 house seats and I think 7 senate seats in 2010 and like 7-8 senate seats in 2014 while the GOP was winning like 247 house seats
If that’s not a wave, idk what is.

PolitiCalc Results:

Based on your results, we project that your voting tendencies are right-wing.

Your nearest ideological personas are Classical Liberal (27%), Nationalist (26%), Conservative (26%)

Your most dominant attributes are: Communitarian (81%), Conservative (78%), Globalist (75%)

67% Privatist
72% Meritocratic
78% Conservative
81% Communitarian
61% Suspecting
50% Emotional
58% Pragmatist
61% Loyalist
75% Globalist
56% Hawk
58% Gradual
58% Conformist

So according to this poll, I'm basically a Christian Democrat who ended up being born in Canada somehow lol. Idk if I agree with some of those metrics (I really don't think I'm that conservative or communitarian), but most of them make sense.

Shaz appeal to the social conservative economically progressiv people and Yesh Atid appeal to the socially liberal economically moderate/conservative people.

Also, I think that Labor is seen as too soft on defense and zionism in general.

I thought it was a matter of minorities rather than 'economically left socially right' stuff.

It should honestly be pretty straightforward.

An attack primarily targeting civilians, with the express intention of penetrating the heart of the country and slaughtering every man, woman, and child found is clearly an act of genocide.

A direct military response to that genocidal attack is not a genocide.

What 'direct military response' would that be? Do tell.

The mindset of the country has changed too much compared to back when Labor Zionism was strong. A revival would probably require a fusion of left wing economics with firm nationalism, similar to Sahra Wagenknecht in Germany.

lol

Maki is the only chance to reignited any left-wing change in the state of Israel.

No, Urushi.

[Sweden]

Most Similar Demographics: Luxembourg
Most Similar Culture: Luxembourg
Most Similar Government: Spain
Most Similar Infrastructure: France
Most Similar Geography: Netherlands

I feel like for the most part it is just the further located a country is the less similarity it'll have basically, so it's kinda pointless, especially since overall a lot of factors here basically are related to distance (culture, language, etc).

Yeah, but like, it’s normal for neighbors to tend to be more similar to each other than to places that are very distant.

There are exceptions because of colonization - ex: Anglos influence in both USA/Canada and Australia/New Zealand, making those be quite similar to each other because British went to live in both. But it’s generally normal for you to be more similar to places that are closer to you or that you have some historical influence/relation with.

The Belgium comparisons seem about right to me, though I am not familiar with its politics to understand why the government closest association is with Spain.

Personally, I agree with almost all Brazilian comparisons. Ideologically in politics, I do feel like Argentinians are the closest to Brazilians as we’ve gone through somewhat similar things most of the time, so the Government comparison is spot on.

In infrastructure, Brazil is very regionally diversified tbh, the Southern region can be closer to Uruguay and Argentina but the Northern part lacks a lot because of Amazon and drier climate, more on par with poorer segments of LatAm, so I do believe Colombia is the perfect middle-ground standard LatAm country to be compared with.

The Dominican Republic in demographics isn’t too exact but it’s really the closest comparison as they received significant African influence as well, mixed with the Indigenous and European.  Other possible adequate comparisons besides DR imo would be Cuba and low-key Colombia too.

Geography there isn’t any other country to compare but we’re not an Andean country and Uruguay and Paraguay are too one-note on that regard, so Venezuela probably is the neighbor with closest geography, also being part of the Amazon.

Culturally is where I get hesitant, as I personally feel we are more culturally closer to Hispanic LatAm neighbors than we are to Portugal in behavioral terms, however, I understand that culture isn’t related to just that and also includes things like architecture, food, history that I can see why they would put Portugal as closest comparison as we don’t have any Luso neighbor in LatAm itself.

This is how the website describes different countries and I find it quite interesting:

USA: Canada, if it was more like Mexico
Canada: USA, if it was more like Sweden
Brazil: Colombia, if it was more like Portugal
Mexico: Colombia, if it was more like USA
Argentina: Uruguay, if it was more like Mexico
Uruguay: Argentina, if it was more like The Netherlands
Chile: Argentina, if it was more like Colombia
Venezuela: Colombia, if it was more like Cuba
Colombia: Ecuador, if it was more like Venezuela
Cuba: DR, if it was more like Belarus
DR: Panama, if it was more like Haiti
Haiti: DR, if it was more like Burundi

Notice how every country on the Americas tends to be defined as a mix of two different American countries. Exceptions are only Brazil (because we’re the only Luso-American country in the continent) and Canada + Uruguay (Highly developed countries that are both more liberal than their neighbors and have a very specific geography that distinguishes them too). Oh and it happens with Cuba and Haiti too for obvious but different reasons.

I think you CAN argue that USA is the most Latin American Anglo country, but it’s still very much an Anglo country yeah. A Mexicanized Canada is kind of perfect description actually, because it feels like this buffer mixed zone in some elements yeah.

Same thing happens within European countries, their closest comparisons are amongst two of themselves, exception being only Spain and Portugal due to their cultural similarities towards LatAm former colonies. And Switzerland and Russia, which are compared to Canada on so e level that I don’t understand.

UK: Ireland, if it was more like Denmark
Germany: Austria, if it was more like The Netherlands
Austria: Germany, if it was more like Slovakia
Netherlands: Belgium, if it was more like the UK
Belgium: Netherlands, if it was more like France
France: Belgium, if it was more like Portugal
Switzerland: Austria, if it was more like Canada
Sweden: Norway, if it was more like Finland
Italy: Spain, if it was more like Croatia
Spain: Portugal, if it was more like Chile
Portugal: Spain, if it was more like Brazil
Poland: Czechia, if it was more like Romania
Ukraine: Belarus, if it were more like Bulgaria
Russia: Belarus, if it was more like Canada
Belarus: Ukraine, if it was more like Russia (lol)

Even for places that are between different regions, the comparison they make feels apt, being a mix of those two regions:

Turkey: Azerbaijan, if it was more like Italy

And just for the sake of curiosity…

Israel: Tunisia, if it was more like Germany
Australia: New Zealand, if it was more like South Africa
South Africa: Botswana, if it was more like The Netherlands
Angola: Mozambique, if it was more like Congo
Nigeria: Ghana, if it was more like Niger
Japan: Taiwan, if it was more like the UK
South Korea: Japan, if it was more like North Korea
China: Taiwan, if it was more like North Korea
Taiwan: China, if it was more like Japan
India: Nepal, if it was more like Sri Lanka
Iran: Iraq, if it was more like Tajikistan
Morocco: Algeria, if was more like Turkey

My current prediction remains unchanged (since the frontrunner Noem killed her chances along with her dog):

Haley 60%
Stefanik 40%

Judge cleared the courtroom of press and jury to chew out Costello. He was apparently rolling his eyes at the judge and saying things like "strike it."

Gas and interest rates going down will probably matter more, as far as tangibility goes. Certainly the Biden campaign should point to this to absolve him of some of the responsibility he is seen as having.

Weren't polls accurate in 2018 and then suddenly off again in 2020?

It doesn't necessarily mean that pattern will follow.

I have heard some say "no." What is your opinion?

Not Nevada.

Lombardo was the only Republican to win statewide since 2014, and that was by little more than 1%.

If Trump wins it this year, I don't see him doing much better.