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The prosecution has rested and i believe they have proven their case beyond a reasonable doubt (misdemeanor and/or felony, all 34 counts). This is technically the bare minimum they need to be at when they have rested.

Please note that this is not the same as I would vote to convict because:

1. The defense still has a case to present. The have the opportunity to sow reasonable doubt.
2. We haven't heard Closing Arguments. This can focus the evidence and the arguments that supports or exculpates guilt.
3. I haven't seen the demeanor of the witnesses as they were testifying. This can be key for assessing their credibility.
4. I haven't deliberated. Being challenged by your peers who have doubts is an essential part of our justice system.

Nonetheless, as an intellectual exercise, I believe the prosecution met their burden. I am convinced.

[Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians]

I missed this, from the NY Times last December. It says Russia is willing to do an armistice at current lines. If so, that's good news. It further reinforces my belief that Putin never expected much Ukrainian resistance, he has been repeatedly humiliated and already regrets the "SMO". He is looking for a way out. Given the stalemate of the current fighting, and it's cost in lives for very little if any gain, I think the U.S. and Ukraine should agree.

The continuation of the war is a fiscal and humanitarian disaster, most of all for Ukraine, which desperately needs a chance to rebuild. It is losing an entire generation of young men on top of already dire demographic problems. It cannot hold elections. It's economy is stuck in war mode. Unless you're literally Palantir/Lockheed Martin or someone who actively relishes the deaths of Ukrainians and Russians, or a pro-Russian who wants Russia to conquer more territory, there is zero benefit to this war anymore. If Russia is willing to do an armistice, we should come to the table.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html

Or you saw Putin run the exact playbook in Chechnya and know he’s full of crap and just wants a pause to rebuild and reorganize for round 2

Immediately after Russia withdraws we provide a complete security guarantee to Ukraine and send NATO troops in. If Putin wants to try a round two he can have it.

They surely can, the issue is that Democrats are banking on the polls underestimating them which is generally not a good or reliable strategy, and this question can also be asked in reverse: Why do Democrats think polls can't underestimate Republicans or be accurate?

Besides, just look downballot. Democrats are crushing it there.

Makes sense, polling wise, given the discourse and findings around non-voters going for Trump.

However, if you look at this in a vaccuum, it's objectively not good for him. The closer we get to the election, the more people *will be* tuned in - and by and large, the people who have been tuned in and are following what's going on don't like him. Sure, some people will still vote for him even once the election nears, but this says to me that once people start paying attention, things can shift very easily.

I am not surprised at all to see people who are completely disengaged or are super apathetic more prone to Trump. However, it's key for pollsters to actually find out if these people vote. If you didn't vote in 2020 (or 2022), the likelihood of you voting this year seems pretty slim.

To add on to this, this is why part of my theory is that Biden will generally hold up better in the main swing states than nationwide - the campaigns investing disproportionate resources in these states in a way makes those voters more engaged and perhaps marginally more likely to behave as such.

We sort of saw this in 2022 a bit where Democrats generally held up disproportionately well in states/races that saw a lot of investment from both sides. Almost everywhere else they collapsed.

Of course, though it definitely reduces the likelihood.

It's giving recession vibes!

Yes, and I am glad you seem happy about it. This job market is f**king terrible.

I would be careful about reading overmuch into any single poll and so on, though we can note that it's significant that figures like that can be produced.

Yeah, It's unclear if Labour really are opening up a clear lead (and a poll with the Greens on 7% and Reform 4% in Scotland is probably not going to happen in reality), but the fact it’s not just another poll bouncing around the MOE of even stevens is indicative of the slow trend towards Labour is continuing.

Perhaps an even more telling- even saddening - demonstration of how popular butker's views are. His T-shirt is now the highest selling one in the NFL store.

I think part of that is that sports in general is turning into a clique for reactionary bearded men. Even real sports like football seem to be turning into MMA or NASCAR in terms of the type of fandom it attracts.

It doesn't help that football is horribly boring to watch now because of the penalties and commercial breaks. You'd have to be pretty weird to enjoy watching two hours of commercial breaks and another hour of watching people stand around waiting for the official review of every other play.


I also forgot to mention it's extremely expensive. You'd have to be a total asshole to waste money going to a game in person at this point, and you have to have cable or premium streaming services to watch everything. It's a mess.

This is false lol . The NFL just recorded its 2nd highest average ratings ever last season so it’s just as popular as it ever was . The fact is conservatives, liberals have both attacked the nfl constantly but in reality it has done nothing to dent the NFL’s popularity .

Also it’s false to say you need cable to watch the NFL as at least 90% of NFL games are broadcast on CBS NBC or Fox all of which you only need an antenna to watch .

https://fortune.com/2024/01/10/nfl-ratings-tv-second-highest-ever-football/

The ratings may not be declining, but the types of people watching it have definitely changed. Fewer and fewer young people care about sports and, regardless of what the ratings say, a lot of people who used to watch football regularly have given up on it. Not for political reasons, but because the experience is terrible. Nonstop commercials, nonstop penalties, nonstop official reviews, and it is less accessible than it used to be. "You only need an antenna to watch." Lol.

The Superbowl had the highest viewership of anything since the Moon Landing, you don’t get those numbers without universal appeal.

Leaving aside the questionable legal, constitutional and ethical basis of such a move, the only way Trump would accept a deal like that would be if he was down 10+ points.  With see-saw election polls, it would be a simple "why take crumbs when I could have a whole loaf".  And realistically, even if Trump loses but comes close, there is a good chance for Biden to pardon him, after the election, on his own volition.  So, no it won't happen.

Azerbaijan is really making an effort to outdo its genocidal ally in the ankle-biter rankings. It's like North Korea supporting AREMA except ten times as stupid.