Is Bush Collapsing?

[California Dreamer]

in the Daily Rasmussen Bush has trailed Kerry by 3 points for two days. He has gone from +4 to -3 in just over a week.

Bush's campaign is far more organised and well funded and yet they are still dropping like a stone. And this is after he and Rove attempted their 'knockout punch' with the biggest pre convention negative ad campaign in history.

With events both home and abroad working against him, the only way he can stay even is when he is outspending Kerry 4 to 1, but now that Kerry has caught up he no longer has that advantage

Lets face it...its over for Bush














Actually I think the race is still 'tied'...but this argument is just as valid as all the "Its over for Kerry" type of threads from the dittoheads.

[Siege40]

There's only three things in my mind that will change the numbers significantly.

1. Ralph Nader dies (Yay!)
2. Dick Cheney dies (or is replaced with a battleground VP) (Yay!)
3. Kerry finds and picks the 'perfect' VP. (Cough *unlikely* Cough)

Until something like that happens, it's a tie til November IMHO.

Siege

[WalterMitty]

if the election were held today, bush would win.  ive little doubt about that.

as long as iraq and national security are the top issues, bush has a good shot at winning.  sometime or another, kerry *might* want to talk about the hundred of thousands of jobs lost during the bush administration.  or maybe he wants to convince us he doesnt own an suv and many world leaders support him.  i dont know.  it's his campaign.

[The Vorlon]

in the Daily Rasmussen Bush has trailed Kerry by 3 points for two days. He has gone from +4 to -3 in just over a week.

Bush's campaign is far more organised and well funded and yet they are still dropping like a stone. And this is after he and Rove attempted their 'knockout punch' with the biggest pre convention negative ad campaign in history.

With events both home and abroad working against him, the only way he can stay even is when he is outspending Kerry 4 to 1, but now that Kerry has caught up he no longer has that advantage

Lets face it...its over for Bush














Actually I think the race is still 'tied'...but this argument is just as valid as all the "Its over for Kerry" type of threads from the dittoheads.

I have written a new game that is an advanced version of the Rasmussen Tracking poll.

It looks very similar to flipping a coin, except the coin flips once an hour, so it's 24 times as much fun as Rasmussen.

I am thinking of charging $49 for the Premium edition of the game.

What do you think...?

[Giant Saguaro]

Bush already collapsed - back in February. Kerry collapsed about a month/month and a half ago. Now they're rebuilding themselves. But I agree that the race is tied and a tracking poll released today can't be used to predict a winner 6 months from now.

Now what I think Kerry is going to have give the general electorate a reason to vote him in and do more than say, "whatever I'll do, he'll do it worse." Because that's basically what he's done.

[WalterMitty]

ive never had much faith in the tracking poll.  bush has lost steam because of the continious bad news from iraq over the last several weeks.  im surprised he hasnt fallen lower than he has.

i dont think there is any groundswell of support for kerry.  no matter how anxious people get about iraq, kerry must still convince him he would do better.  that is going to be a hard sell.

[classical liberal]

Monday during my commute I head that there were over a dozen soldiers killed this month.  This month just started this past weekend.

People will rally around Bush for a bit, then his support will die off as it always does.

[zachman]

   Iraq will collapse.I just don't see how Bush can be so stubborn about "staying the course." I wouldn't be surprised if Americans get attacked abroad. Assuming Iraq gets to this level, Bush has collapsed.

I think he has already had a slight collapse in the last month. His presidential poll numbers are in the low to mid fourties. If Kerry changes his themes on foreign policy soon, he can claim that theater of the Presidential campaign. Bush might get picked up in the midwest by the economy, but he can't go speaking about Iraq.

[California Dreamer]

Bush's 'stay the course' 'steady leadership' message is definately a big thing. He is positioning himself as someone who is rock solid, doenst change his mind, doenst change course, etc etc. He has made more a point of this than any other candidate...he has articulated no vision except 'change is bad'.

If things get better this will be a huge asset for him.

If things get worse this will be a huge liability for him.


...we will just ahve to wait and see

[Reaganfan]

I still see maybe over 300 EV's for Bush.

[Rococo4]

in the Daily Rasmussen Bush has trailed Kerry by 3 points for two days. He has gone from +4 to -3 in just over a week.

Bush's campaign is far more organised and well funded and yet they are still dropping like a stone. And this is after he and Rove attempted their 'knockout punch' with the biggest pre convention negative ad campaign in history.

With events both home and abroad working against him, the only way he can stay even is when he is outspending Kerry 4 to 1, but now that Kerry has caught up he no longer has that advantage

Lets face it...its over for Bush














Actually I think the race is still 'tied'...but this argument is just as valid as all the "Its over for Kerry" type of threads from the dittoheads.

Bush collapsing is "California Dreaming."  He is ahead in pretty much all the polls sans Rasmussen, which last week he was up in and people were predicting the demise of Kerry.  

[WalterMitty]

too many people have a fantasy of fighting a war without losing soldiers.  that would be nice....but not realistic.

[Lunar]

I am thinking of charging $49 for the Premium edition of the game.

What do you think...?

The Premium could flip a coin 105 times and give the number of heads as Kerry's percentage that day.

[??????????]

The coin flipping would be similiar to Kerrys positions on the issues. Flip the coin and see what he stands for today.

[Nym90]

But of course Bush NEVER does that...oh no. Bush never changes his position on anything for political expediency? Yeah right.

I trust "flip-floppers" a lot more than someone who never changes their position, even in the face of irrefutable evidence that they are wrong. The ability to change one's positions in the face of new evidence is a strength, not a weakness.

[ShapeShifter]

How can Bush fight the ABB movement? I mean, no one really knows Kerry yet and it is a tied race. Once he define himself, and not Bush, I think Bush is going to collapse.

[pieman]

How can Bush fight the ABB movement? I mean, no one really knows Kerry yet and it is a tied race. Once he define himself, and not Bush, I think Bush is going to collapse.

If the ABB movement is so strong, and can carry a candidate, why isn't Dean the presumptive DEM nominee? He was much more ABB than Kerry.

If you wanted to run an ABB campaign you should have nominated Dean.

 

 

[agcatter]

It will be a close election.  I've always said that.  Bush is not going to collapse.  Give it up.  Only about 8% is up for grabs this year.  With those numbers nobody "collapses".  I'm amused that when Bush gained a few points a couple of weeks ago, a thread suddenly appeared about a Kerry collapse.  Now we're hearing about a Bush collapse.  Come on guys.  It's a marathon, not a sprint.  Neither one of these candidate is going to blow the other away.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It will be a close election.  I've always said that.  Bush is not going to collapse.  Give it up.  Only about 8% is up for grabs this year.  With those numbers nobody "collapses".  I'm amused that when Bush gained a few points a couple of weeks ago, a thread suddenly appeared about a Kerry collapse.  Now we're hearing about a Bush collapse.  Come on guys.  It's a marathon, not a sprint.  Neither one of these candidate is going to blow the other away.

Good point.
Neither Bush or Kerry will collapse US-wide... they might in individual states if "issue-x" comes up... but that's different.

[ShapeShifter]

How can Bush fight the ABB movement? I mean, no one really knows Kerry yet and it is a tied race. Once he define himself, and not Bush, I think Bush is going to collapse.

If the ABB movement is so strong, and can carry a candidate, why isn't Dean the presumptive DEM nominee? He was much more ABB than Kerry.

If you wanted to run an ABB campaign you should have nominated Dean.

That is the primaries. This is the general election. Don't you realize that they elected Kerry over Dean because of the E factor? Yes, delectability. They wanted someone to beat Bush. Anyone But Bush. ABB is going to keep this race close and just might win it too.

[??????????]

ABB is a stupid reason to vote for a candidate. Good grief Hitler is ABB if he was still alive and ran for office I bet the lefty whackos would vote for him because he's ABB.

[HoopsCubs]

I still see maybe over 300 EV's for Bush.

Kerry 272 - Bush 266.  And, it's going to be your state that puts Kerry over the top!