Glasgow East by-election

[afleitch]

What a scorcher of a day. This is election weather.

[Left-Wing Blogger]

What a scorcher of a day. This is election weather.

Election weather for us is certainly not scorching.

[Verily]

What a scorcher of a day. This is election weather.

Election weather for us is certainly not scorching.

It's Scotland. Scorching means it might have broken 70 F.

Polls have closed. The result is expected around 1 a.m. BST (three hours from now).

[Harry Hayfield]

Betting Exchanges at close of polls: % probablity of wins:

Labour 83% SNP 17%

[Verily]

Postal vote, as reported by Labour insiders, is 46 Lab, 42 SNP, 12 LD/Con/Other.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/2455991/Glasgow-East-by-election-polling-suggests-photo-finish.html

[Harry Hayfield]

Adam Boulton: "close" between Lab and SNP. Unlikely Lab will get anywhere near 60% of the vote. Nothing to suggest that Lab will get good news from Glasgow East even if they hold the seat. Lib Dem vs Con battle for third place.

[afleitch]

Nothing to suggest that Lab will get good news from Glasgow East even if they hold the seat.

Of course. This race should never have been at the stage to be called close

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Early rumours and leaks should be treated with caution. But, yeah, the result will be awful no matter what.

[afleitch]

Early rumours and leaks should be treated with caution. But, yeah, the result will be awful no matter what.

I'm still waiting for what I was told during the week to be right.

EDIT - Or wrong...naturally

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Edit: they won't have counted much yet (unless they do things very differently in Scotland). Early stuff tends to be based on canvassing stuff from the day and postal vote samples and so on. This is sometimes accurate, sometimes miles out.

Early rumours and leaks should be treated with caution. But, yeah, the result will be awful no matter what.

I'm still waiting for what I was told during the week to be right.

What were that [qm]

[afleitch]

Early rumours and leaks should be treated with caution. But, yeah, the result will be awful no matter what.

I'm still waiting for what I was told during the week to be right.

What were that [qm]

Nothing major.

It's about what 'our' lot were doing. All parties saturated this seat with campaigners, in particular the Tories who usually wouldn't bother their arse in a seat like this. As such we got alot of 'vocal' indications of what Tory leaners were doing. And if they are as keen as every other Tory to give Brown a bash then we will perform worse than our returns indicated.

[afleitch]

BBC report turnout of 'about 48%'

Which I'm not sure about - as it was a 48% turnout last time.

[afleitch]

Now they say 41%

People are wondering about the effect of having two Currans on the ballot.

[Хahar 🤔]

People are wondering about the effect of having two Currans on the ballot.

It'll probably hurt Labour.

[Verily]

The BBC and Guardian seem to be suggesting the SNP have won it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The BBC and Guardian seem to be suggesting the SNP have won it.

So I've seen as well. Still chinese whispers at this stage though.

Awful, awful, awful though.

[afleitch]

No one is really taking any chances here. Both parties seem pretty mute and if it is that close, then I'd expect a recount.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No one is really taking any chances here. Both parties seem pretty mute and if it is that close, then I'd expect a recount.

If they stay basically mute then we won't have a good idea of what's gone on for a while yet. Unless one side opens up for some reason. If not, nowt but chinese whispers for far too long to stay sane.

Thus, this is like certain Assembly seats in the Welsh elections last year.

[afleitch]

far too long to stay sane.

Thus, this is like certain Assembly seats in the Welsh elections last year.

In Scotland it was different. We knew Labour were 'running away with it' in Hamilton South at about 10.15 because the screens constantly updated the tally. Then everything crashed. And everyone still knew the result, they just couldn't announce it

[afleitch]

Oh come on already!



It's probably Mt Vernon holding everyone up...

For space filling purposes, Chris' parents live in Garrowhill in the seat. If the winning partywins by 2 votes I'll be on the phone....

[Verily]

Official turnout is 42.25% (!!!)

[afleitch]

Official turnout is 42.25% (!!!)

Tories take 3rd.

I am beginning to wonder if Mr Masons's base is beginning to come in now if the Tories have opened up a gap. It was Tory held until 1980 and there is still a fairly generous share there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Official turnout is 42.25% (!!!)

More evidence that we've returned to traditional by-election patterns. Interesting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even if the seat is held, Labour should launch an inquiry into this fiasco; not because it's a one-off awful result in the depths of a Midtermland coloured by less than wonderful economic news, but because it isn't (though obviously economic gloom, the general unpopularity of the government, the popular Scottish government, etc are all factors. Not enough though). This, no matter who wins, easily fits into a long pattern of appalling by-election results in Scotland in areas that shouldn't even be close, let alone lost or tottering-on-the-brink. Something, somewhere is seriously wrong, has been for at least fourty years and unless the problem is spotted and fixed ghastly Scottish by-elections will remain ever-looming... and that will be as true when we are in opposition as when we are in government. What I cannot understand is why this hasn't been done already; it's not as though Labour is so unwilling to learn from its errors elsewhere in Britain. Then again, are people even aware that something is seriously wrong [qm].

Half a rant, half a ramble. Still. Hmm.

[afleitch]

Even if the seat is held, Labour should launch an inquiry into this fiasco; not because it's a one-off awful result in the depths of a Midtermland coloured by less than wonderful economic news, but because it isn't (though obviously economic gloom, the general unpopularity of the government, the popular Scottish government, etc are all factors. Not enough though). This, no matter who wins, easily fits into a long pattern of appalling by-election results in Scotland in areas that shouldn't even be close, let alone lost or tottering-on-the-brink. Something, somewhere is seriously wrong, has been for at least fourty years and unless the problem is spotted and fixed ghastly Scottish by-elections will remain ever-looming... and that will be as true when we are in opposition as when we are in government. What I cannot understand is why this hasn't been done already; it's not as though Labour is so unwilling to learn from its errors elsewhere in Britain. Then again, are people even aware that something is seriously wrong [qm].

Half a rant, half a ramble. Still. Hmm.

You've got a point. The close ones too, like Hamilton South in '99 and even Monklands East in 1994. To almost loose John Smith's seat (The Monklands Affair aside) was pretty shocking. However this is a safe, solidly safe, Labour seat in the East End of Glasgow. I've bolded that because it's so obvious and you're well aware of that, but it highlights the extraordinary position that Labour find themselves in.

The issue for Labour in Scotland is that unlike in England they have dominated everything since the 50's. Even in years like '83 they held disproportionate power in local government and in Westminster. Historically that is Labour's success story, but it has bred two generations of un-opposed politicians. They have created the Wendy Alexanders of the world, who were bright and successful but were never challenged from the electorate and no one ever challenged them internally. Wendy is an example of a 'spoilt' politician who no-one ever said no to.

What hurts Labour is the loss of those who did know challenge, not necessarily politically but institutionally. I won't go over the top on the Smiths, Cooks, Dewars and Robertsons of the past but professionally they operated within circles whereby Labour aspirations for equality of opportunity were still an ongoing fight. Likewise for the old duffers in the unions.

But now the institutions are no longer in natural opposition to Labour. Labour itself has become institutionalised and in government it has relied on it's old self belief in the success of it's policies on poverty for example but has became detached from the organisations that exist in places like the East End. The old Labour Party and the former councillors worked closely here in the past and now they feel sidelined. (Which left them in the position of opening up communications with Iain Duncan Smith during the past few years) This is because there is opposition to some Labour policy and there was very vocal opposition to Labour's benefit plans this week (though the big talking point was Thatcher's state funeral) but

Loose David Marshall, someone who maintained these links and the fall I think is harder.

It's just that usually Labour don't last this long. In fact they never have, even taking the 8 years in power in Holyrood before they were booted, never mind the 11 in Westminster. So Labour across the UK is being exposed to something strange and unusual.