I'm staying on the sidelines in making predictions right now because what is presently happening to the American/world economy and what will likely happen to the American/world economy before the 2010 elections means to me that only the *most popular* DEM/GOP incumbents in the *most* red states/blue states can be termed "safe" for all intents and purposes.
I mean this with all the seriousness that it sounds of.
Your point is dully noted...this is the stance that most people are taking. This is also the stance that most independent projection agencies (Cook Political, Rothenberg, etc.) are taking judging by their race ratings - the only true toss-ups are those which are guaranteed to be open or an appointee in a battleground state (FL open, OH open, MO open, NH appointee). Other toss-ups are those with questionable situations - IL Burris (who knows how he will perform), KY Bunning (yeah.......).
Another thing is that besides the fact that the economy can dictate how the races go, there is a lot of weight on the candidates chosen.
*Kansas is mostly rated "Likely Republican", but if Kathleen Sibelius jumps in then the race jumps to toss-up.
*While unlikely, if Rendell were to jump into the race the rating would go from lean Rep to lean Dem
*blah blah blah, etc. etc. etc....you get the point.
However, it is always fun to project.
(in order of how good I feel about the projection)
NH +1 dem. I can't see how they fail to pick up this seat with a strong DEM bench.
PA +2 dem. I'm from PA (as you can see). Besides the fact that the dems have a 1.1 million (and growing) advantage in registration, people are tired of Specter. Even though 2006 was a major wave election, if we were able to vote out a strong staunch republican name like Rick Santorum, then we should have no problem voting out a bush-rubber-stamp like Arlen Specter. The fact that Rendell would put this seat as a strong-DEM pickup should be good indication that with the right man this seat is pretty certain to be a DEM pickup.
KY +3 dem. I am basing this one on my assumption that Bunning stays in. If he drops then this one is out of reach for the dems.
MO +4 dem. Carnahan is strong with the force.
OH +5 dem. Just like in 2006, with the right Democratic candidate this one could be put out of reach in a hurry.
I am going to say +6 DEM. These 5 plus either FL/KS/LA/NC go DEM. I am leaning towards LA because of the DC Madam stuff with Vitter, depends on how the DNC decides to exploit it.
On the cusp:
FL - it is a republican leaning state, but a good DEM candidate can make this open seat competitive (yes, Obama won it this past election cycle, but the right GOP candidate can put this one away. Fortunately for us dems, Jeb Bush isn't running).
KS - Sibelius would put this one in play.
NC - I am currently in North Carolina (for school) and this state is surprisingly more democratic than I expected before I came down here. You have four five areas of NC: the research triangle of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill is heavy democratic. Outer banks which center around Greenville (where I am), this area is rather democratic. The western Appalachian is heavy republican. The south-central Charlotte area is heavy democratic. And the southeast coastal area is pretty republican. With the right candidate this can be a second straight Democratic candidate. Unfortunately I have not heard anything on the news down here about the 2010 election - something needs to break for this to become competitive. All it takes is one good candidate and a good ad showing two old guys on rocking chairs talking about "What happened to the Liddy Dole I knew" and the republican candidate is cooked. I'm not sure if Burr is ineffective or if North Carolinians have as negative view of him as they did of Dole. We shall see what happens here.
LA - "DC Madam" is all I have to say. If exploited the proper way, who knows, we might have 2 DEM senators from LA.
I don't see any Democratic seats in serious danger, but there are ones on the cusp (however, unlikely to become competitive based on the news). AR would be on the cusp if Huckabee was running, but he is not. CA could be, but Governator is polling 9pts behind Boxer. DE could be competitive with Mike Castle, but it won't since he prob wont run.
HI - if Inoyue retires, it is in play.
NV - if the economy tanks, Reid could be in trouble, which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world (since I can't stand Reid)
NY-B (Gillibrand) is not in danger of switching hands, only Gillibrand herself is in danger based on how she votes. If she doesnt suit the people of NY she could be ousted pretty fast in the primary.
