FL: Bense Declines Senate Run

[Moooooo]

Florida House Speaker Allan Bense (R) announced that he will not challenge Rep. Katherine Harris for the Republican nomination to challenge Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in 2006. Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Karl Rove, and other prominent Republicans had encouraged Bense to run because polls show Sen. Nelson easily defeating Harris.
More from the Bradenton Herald:

Republican leaders began courting Bense to run for the seat out of concern that Harris, R-Sarasota - who played a role in stopping the ballot recount in the contested 2000 presidential election - would be a lightning rod for negative sentiment from Democrats.

Harris consistently trumped Bense, who admitted he had low name recognition, in the polls. The same polls have shown Harris consistently trailing Nelson.

The White House and the National Republican Senatorial Committee viewed Bense as a strong candidate who could overcome low name recognition with the financial support of the party.

Republicans across the nation have set their sights on Nelson, who is Florida's only statewide Democrat and has job approval ratings below 50 percent.
...
While Bense's exit clears the way for Harris to receive the Republican nomination, it places additional pressure on GOP leaders to decide whether there is another available candidate with a better chance at unseating Nelson. The number of choices is waning.

U.S. Rep. Mark Foley, who has flirted with the idea of running for the Senate, has about $2 million in campaign funds, according to David Johnson, a Republican strategist and pollster with Strategic Vision LLC in Atlanta.

While Foley, R-West Palm Beach, also does not fare well against Harris in polling, his money gives him the opportunity to buy name recognition, Johnson said.

For the past several months, retired U.S. Army General Tommy Franks, the former head of U.S. Central Command, has been thrown into the mix of candidates, but he has consistently declined to show an interest in the race.

With Attorney General Charlie Crist leading among Republicans for governor in 2006, speculation could shift to Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher. A poll Johnson's company conducted in June showed Crist and Gallagher ahead of Nelson by three and four points, respectively.

But Gallagher spokesman Alberto Martinez said Wednesday that Gallagher is "100 percent committed" to becoming governor.

Johnson said the White House believes that Harris can't win the race. He also said Gov. Bush is the only name that could beat Harris in a primary. The situation will force Republican leaders to show just how much confidence they do or don't have in Harris, Johnson said.

[Sam Spade]

Harris will be the nominee, unless (and this is probably not going to happen) Gallagher wises up and sees that he is not going to beat Crist in the Governor primary.

Ane even if he does, there is still a very good chance he would lose to Harris in the Senate primary anyway.

Just imo.

[WMS]

Wow, watching the FL Reps is kinda like watching an oncoming train wreck...

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The conductors keep trying to avoid the wreck, but the momentum is carrying them off the tracks.

Wow, watching the FL Reps is kinda like watching an oncoming train wreck...

[© tweed]

From an 'advance the republican party' perspective, Jeb should run for senate as he can't run for re-election to the Governorship.  But he won't because if he loses, he can't run for president in 2008.

[Keystone Phil]

The conductors keep trying to avoid the wreck, but the momentum is carrying them off the tracks.

Wow, watching the FL Reps is kinda like watching an oncoming train wreck...

Wasn't Jeb 2002 supposed to be bad, too? How'd that go?

I know Harris isn't Ms. Popularity in Florida but I think people will be surprised. Nelson has the edge in this race but it's not much.

[Ben.]

I know Harris isn't Ms. Popularity in Florida but I think people will be surprised. Nelson has the edge in this race but it's not much.

I'd agree, Nelson has an edge but Harris has a shot, all be it a long one at beating him and she should be able to poll above 45%... but in the end its likley that she'll lose.

[WMS]

The conductors keep trying to avoid the wreck, but the momentum is carrying them off the tracks.

Wow, watching the FL Reps is kinda like watching an oncoming train wreck...

I find it amazing that the FL Reps can't find a better candidate to run in this race. *shakes head*

And no Phil, I never thought Jeb 2002 was going to lose at all - that delusion was spared me. But Harris isn't as good a candidate as Jeb, not at all. I suppose my question is, who wins the moderates in Florida, because those Mason-Dixon polls seem to indicate that Nelson is doing so at the moment, and Florida isn't conservative enough to enable a win with conservatives only.

[Keystone Phil]

The conductors keep trying to avoid the wreck, but the momentum is carrying them off the tracks.

Wow, watching the FL Reps is kinda like watching an oncoming train wreck...

I find it amazing that the FL Reps can't find a better candidate to run in this race. *shakes head*

And no Phil, I never thought Jeb 2002 was going to lose at all - that delusion was spared me. But Harris isn't as good a candidate as Jeb, not at all. I suppose my question is, who wins the moderates in Florida, because those Mason-Dixon polls seem to indicate that Nelson is doing so at the moment, and Florida isn't conservative enough to enable a win with conservatives only.

I didn't think he would lose either but he was the number 1 target of the Dems in 2002. People aren't celebrating over a Harris candidacy but she's not despised as some on the left might think. Watch Nelson bring up 2000 with Harris during the debates/commercials and I will bet people will get angry at Nelson. They wanted to move on from that fiasco years ago. Bringing it up will hurt Nelson.

[Defarge]

Look for extraordinarily high Democratic turnout in Florida next November.

[The Dowager Mod]

Nelson can feel a lot better about his chances now.

[Keystone Phil]

Look for extraordinarily high Democratic turnout in Florida next November.

Yeah how did that go last year? I thought the Dems were going win FL "again."

[The Dowager Mod]

Look for extraordinarily high Democratic turnout in Florida next November.

Yeah how did that go last year? I thought the Dems were going win FL "again."

Cruella wasn't running last year.

[Keystone Phil]

Look for extraordinarily high Democratic turnout in Florida next November.

Yeah how did that go last year? I thought the Dems were going win FL "again."

Cruella wasn't running last year.

But the most "evil" man ever elected President was.

[Moooooo]

I suppose my question is, who wins the moderates in Florida, because those Mason-Dixon polls seem to indicate that Nelson is doing so at the moment, and Florida isn't conservative enough to enable a win with conservatives only.

Exactly.  Rove knows this.  Bush knows this.  The NRSC knows this.  And that is exactly why they were recruiting bense.

[The Dowager Mod]

Look for extraordinarily high Democratic turnout in Florida next November.

Yeah how did that go last year? I thought the Dems were going win FL "again."

Cruella wasn't running last year.

But the most "evil" man ever elected President was.

I never said he was evil.
Stupid maybe.

[Alcon]

In Florida, about 40% of the population will vote for her thanks to her 2000 involvement and political affiliation.  That is a solid base to build upon, but still will be a difficult one.

This will not be a blowout.

[AuH2O]

She can make it a lot tougher than many people give her credit for. Her main weakness isn't energizing Democrats (the notion of which is pure myth) but just that she isn't a stellar candidate... limited experience, political ability, attractivess to weak partisans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nick brings up the best point: If Harris is such a great candidate, why was the national party pulling out all the stops to block her candidacy?

[WMS]

I suppose my question is, who wins the moderates in Florida, because those Mason-Dixon polls seem to indicate that Nelson is doing so at the moment, and Florida isn't conservative enough to enable a win with conservatives only.

Exactly.  Rove knows this.  Bush knows this.  The NRSC knows this.  And that is exactly why they were recruiting bense.

As others have said, this doesn't spell 'blowout', but it does make the seat safer for the Dems. This is kinda like the Chafee situation in reverse - the Dems could've had a solid victory with Langevin, but the left wing bitched about it, and now they're going to likely get Chafee again.

[Ben Meyers]

The race will be Nelson vs. Harris vs. Veteran's Party Candidate

It will either be 55-43-2 or 54-44-2.