How do we reconcile the divergences between these two? By bringing in the P&Cs. They confluence of these three tells us something about the national GE picture.
The Conservatives held onto many of these shire posts, albeit by small margins. A universal swing though would have expected more to fall. Almost all probably would if still under runoff rules, and that is the key.
The answer to the puzzle is that Labour know the environment has been and continues to remain anti-Tory rather than pro-Labour. They know voters are behaving tactically and are looking for viable options. So in rural areas, Labour are often not even getting the odd seat. Cause other parties have the monopoly on opposition. In many more places though it is Labour with the prominent position, and they outperform expectations as others gravitate to them.
In short, Labour have hit a new ceiling, much much higher than the one people saw in 2019, but one that is not of their own making.
This tells us something important about the forthcoming general election: universal swing will likely need to take a back seat. Labour are playing for a majority, know they can win a majority, and know they can win big. There is no point playing for the the 500+ result, especially if the voters in seats on the road to 500 don't see Labour as the opposition in their area. So Labour's vision is narrower, but at the same time everything within it is probably going to be won with wider margins than expected.
The seats outside their window are not of major concern. Some are going to go Lib-Dem. if rural seats fall to Labour, great, but it will probably be of crazy vote splits with the Lib-Dems and Reform. If allowed to, without a relevant Reform, the P&Cs suggest the Tories are more likely to hold their base where neither a federal Lib-Dems or Labour are truly viable - some 125ish seats. They'll collapse everywhere else. But the Reform part is key.
So is it fair to say that though the polls suggest that the election results for Conservatives would be worse even than in 1997, local election results are still hinting at a 1997-like result, which is still devastating for Tories but not as dire as they have been led to think?
