What happens to the GOP if Trump loses 2024?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

See title.

[Beet]

They probably do very well in 2026, and are slight favorites in 2028.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The DS will get rid of the FILIBUSTER, raise taxes, voting rights, and all sorts are fun D programs. Rs nominated J6 Trump not Ds Haley I hate to agree with Redban was more electable

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

No lessons are learned because the GOP full embraces election fraud conspiracy theories. Trump becomes the nominee in 2028.

[TML]

As long as Trump is alive and conscious, he will still be considered the head of the party (the effects of which will filter into downballot races). The party can only move on from him if he dies or becomes incapacitated.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The only thing I can predict with any confidence is that there will be a GOP coup attempt if Trump loses.

Whether it will be a violent uprising, a well-organized political movement, or a fractionally-assed fecal fireworks display that makes their last coup attempt look skilled and clever in comparison, I have no idea. And where they go from there, I have even less of a guess.

The best plausible case is probably that we start to see something of a split between the mad Trump losers and the Republicans who actually give a damn about something beyond their Mango Messiah's most recent bout of glossolaliac incontinence. But who knows what they're actually going to do - they certainly don't. (Beyond denying reality of course - that's guaranteed. Even if Trump "wins", they'll lie about the details of the win.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only thing I can predict with any confidence is that there will be a GOP coup attempt if Trump loses.

Whether it will be a violent uprising, a well-organized political movement, or a fractionally-assed fecal fireworks display that makes their last coup attempt look skilled and clever in comparison, I have no idea. And where they go from there, I have even less of a guess.

The best plausible case is probably that we start to see something of a split between the mad Trump losers and the Republicans who actually give a damn about something beyond their Mango Messiah's most recent bout of glossolaliac incontinence. But who knows what they're actually going to do - they certainly don't. (Beyond denying reality of course - that's guaranteed. Even if Trump "wins", they'll lie about the details of the win.)

That is exactly gonna happen when Trump loses

[Progressive Pessimist]

They probably quadruple down on him and keep him as their leader until he either dies or really meaningfully ends up in prison.

[BlueSwan]

Further election denialism is a certainty

Violence to some extent seems a near certainty

What happens beyond that is very very hard to tell

[Obama24]

As long as Trump is alive and conscious, he will still be considered the head of the party (the effects of which will filter into downballot races). The party can only move on from him if he dies or becomes incapacitated.

The larger question is, does Trumpism persist in the GOP after Trump is dead?

If so, do we get a Trumpian GOP nominee in say 2032 who is not only much more competent but also more openly fascistic?

[Dan the Roman]

As long as Trump is alive and conscious, he will still be considered the head of the party (the effects of which will filter into downballot races). The party can only move on from him if he dies or becomes incapacitated.

The larger question is, does Trumpism persist in the GOP after Trump is dead?

If so, do we get a Trumpian GOP nominee in say 2032 who is not only much more competent but also more openly fascistic?

If the GOP loses in 2024 is it because of Trump or Trumpism?

I think 2024 has shades of 2012. Obama was stronger than the Democratic party and Romney was exactly the wrong person to exploit the issues of either. However the establishment and entire status quo was unpopular and the reason Romney was a poor choice is that he wanted to restore the failing status quo while Obama wanted to do little about it. The combination disguised the weakness.

There is a buildup of discontent with the status quo almost everywhere,  and the Democratic party has come to represent it. The only reason it is not an issue this year is because Trump's presence prevents the Republican Party running on a platform of being all things to all people that are not the Democratic party, which is how 2016 happens.

I know a lot of people on thus board will argue things Biden does should be popular. Student loan forgiveness, Title IX, his foriegn policy, etc but the reality is that almost every single thing he has done is enraging a major constituency, appears as an identity politics bribe, or both.  The exception is abortion but 2026 will be the first election since 2018 where "Democracy will not be on the ballot" regardless of whether Trump is alive or dead, and I expect the worst year for Democrats since 2010 or 1994. Democrats will be running on the exact same message for the third time(2022, 2024, 2026)  and if it's Democrats who in total control of the government have been steamrolling partisan legislation it will be seen as insulting rather than effective.

2028 will be closer but the Democratic party is too ideologically homogenous to be able to pivot, except with maybe someone like Fetterman, and Reoublicans are apt to find themselves with trifecta in 2029 without having to do any sort of reinvention or reflection just like 2017.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are going to lose

[progressive85]

If he narrowly loses in 2024, expect mass protests, this time not at the Capitol, but at state capitols (especially in swing states) and congressional offices.  Centralized protest in one place (like Washington, D.C.) was a horrible place to protest - national protest is effective when its spread out across the country (and of course, peaceful and non-threatening).  But we can expect mass protests.  Even if Donald Trump doesn't tell supporters directly to do anything, there will probably be enough momentum for many of them to do it anyway.

What happens from there is how the 2026 cycle will begin.  You might see a lot of new congresspeople in 2026 that participated in protests held in 2024 and 2025.  That energy is going to go into the midterm elections.

[Sir Mohamed]

They won't lean anything and will double down on election denialism, conspiracies and culture war BS. Will probably do well in 2026 and remain favored for 2028.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

They'll nominate Trump again in 2028. He'll run until he dies.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They won't lean anything and will double down on election denialism, conspiracies and culture war BS. Will probably do well in 2026 and remain favored for 2028.

Not if Gavin Newsom and Stacy Abrams are the nominated, only if Harris is nominated