U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey

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NJ-6: Asbury Park, Long Branch, New Brunswick, Plainfield, Elizabeth, Bayonne. Pallone is the incumbent. 64.4% Obama, 63.3% Democratic average. Only 47.3% VAP White.
NJ-7: Flemington, Bridgewater, Summit, etc. Lance is the incumbent. 50.8% McCain (up from 48%), 54.3% Republican average.

I would reconfigure these 2. You're cutting through a lot of Republicans to get Ashbury Park and Long Branch, and those areas are reddening. Ashbury Park and Neptune are small enough to easily drown in the rest of Monmouth County. It would also make it much easier for a Monmouth County Republican to succeed Smith someday; we don't have many Middlesex County Republicans.

It would be much better to keep CD-6 mostly in Middlesex/Union County and pick up more minority growing areas that you left in CD-7 and CD-4.

[krazen1211]

Okay, I had some time to look at this, and here's the result:



This improves the 4th to 50.8% Obama (from 52.0%) and 50.6% Republican average (from 50.1% Democratic average), but I'm still concerned about pairing Pallone and Smith. While I think Smith would certainly be favored to win, the district is more competitive than his current district, it incorporates a lot of new territory, and if 2012 turns out to be a Democratic year, it could be trouble. Is it worth pairing Smith with a Democratic incumbent for a swing of a point and a half?

Yep. Nobody should be afraid of Pallone in any monmouth based seat....Pallone did not even win the Monmouth section in 2010 and those were his base. The Holt section of Monmouth voted very Republican also.

You got many of the fastest reddening townships in New Jersey. Comparing Corzine 2005 to 2009 you have Old Bridge (13% swing), Hazlet (18%), Manalapan (16%) Marlboro (15%), chock full of good voters.

Also, I assume you drew this with the partisan figures. Why is West Windsor/Princeton Junction in the red district while Keyport, Sayerville, etc is in the green district? West Windsor and Plainsboro share a school district and you have a very valid reason to stick the green district into Mercer County.

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I do need to put a marker down that comparing Corzine's repudiation in 2009 with past presidential results is very hard to justify for federal races, even those where Corzine ran, and even comparing it to the 2005 race, while good to show what happened in 2009, doesn't prove a town is "reddening" in the long term. Not unless you think there's not going to be any snapback against the Tea Party heights of the 2009-2010 election.

This all reminds me of how Bush increased his vote share from 2000 to 2004 by a few points, which proved that many groups and states were "trending" Republican.

If you want another example, Marlboro in particular (I have family there) is a Kerry/McCain jurisdiction. There are not many of those in the northeast. Many of the other towns in that belt either maintained or slightly increased their Republican margins between 2004 and 2008.

There is really ample data for the entire decade showing the reddening of Monmouth and Ocean County as a whole, with limited exceptions on a municipal basis.

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I was kind of pissed to find out that The Holy Land, New Brunswick is split between two districts (the 6th and 12th) even if the reason is to make both seats more Dem. The place still shouldn't be dishonored like that, just pick one district to be worthy of its holiness. Hopefully that'll happen while still keeping both seats safe Dem (not really that hard actually.)

Am I reading the map wrong or is Trenton actually in NJ-04 instead of NJ-12? If it is...why?

What is this deal about the holy land? It's a prototypical college town with lots of low income Hispanics that votes very Democrat, but its not really an oasis for the Democrats as the surrounding areas are also Democratic. It's not Bloomington, Indiana.

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If you want another example, Marlboro in particular (I have family there) is a Kerry/McCain jurisdiction. There are not many of those in the northeast. Many of the other towns in that belt either maintained or slightly increased their Republican margins between 2004 and 2008.

There is really ample data for the entire decade showing the reddening of Monmouth and Ocean County as a whole, with limited exceptions on a municipal basis.

Marlboro has a large population of older Jewish New Yorkers. The trend there mirrors what you see in NY-9 and FL-22... a massive Dem vote in 2000 because of Lieberman, with a swing toward Bush in 2004 caused by lack of Lieberman/anger over 9/11, followed by stasis or even a small swing away from Obama because many older Jewish Dems didn't identify with him. My question is, we can identify those factors, so what do they say about future presidential elections, or congressional elections of any kind? Something, certainly, for President, but not much for congress.

Let's also recall that Corzine spent bazillions of dollars in 2000 to drive up the vote totals, which didn't lead to a big winning margin for him, but helped Gore seriously overperform for a Dem in NJ, creating an artificially high benchmark. Also, George W. Bush was a uniquely bad candidate for NJ in 2000... pollution, a strong evangelical Christian religious identity, disdain for educated elites, and opposition to the northeast are not a winning combo for NJ voters.

You're positing a trend moving forward. I'm putting forth an explanation for results on a national level, and also noting a swing at the state level between 2005 and 2009. Where we differ is whether you can draw a straight line from 2005 to 2009 through 2013 showing "reddening" caused by... what factor? I say we need more data to show how the Tea Party high-water mark in 2009 (NJ) and 2010 (federal) looks now that we have divided government. Maybe it's going to be surpassed by even bigger Republican wins. However, I don't think so.

For the record, I wouldn't call it a straight line trend past 2009. Generally the Democrats will likely reclaim the lost Daggett voters in most races who could not stomach voting for Corzine. Corzine also had some nonsensical toll plan and the GSP runs straight down the shore.

Here are the congressional results for Monmouth County in district 6, in Dem percentages:

2002: 66%
2004: 66%
2006: 67%
2008: 64%

And district 12:

2002: 53%
2004: 48%
2006: 56%
2008: 51%

The bottom of course fell out in 2009 and 2010 in both districts. Not too much slippage, but not too much gains, either even as the Democrats picked up on the national vote. But Pallone was never in a million years supposed to be getting 48% in his base portion of that district. It is true that these people have voted more Democratic in our noncompetitive congressional races, but my expectation is that when many of them are moved to Chris Smith's district, that they will vote for him as well.

Primarily, these are wealthy low tax whites who have and will obviously be hit by the Democrats tax policy. Housing prices have also priced lower income and younger people out of the district, and there are large pockets around there where housing has somewhat maintained.

It's not just a 2005-2009 thing. The best Dem performance in NJ in recent times was McGreevey in 2001. He actually won both Monmouth and Ocean County (Gore almost did the same). Corzine 4 years later improved Dem performance in Bergen/Essex/Hudson (+8% in Hudson) and held steep declines in Middlesex/Monmouth/Ocean County (-5 to -8%). The exact same thing happened in 2001-2005 as 2005-2009. The Northeast held and the suburbs plummeted, with those 3 counties leading the way. The state as a whole has a reddening PVI for the same reason in generally the same areas.

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Trenton is split because Chris Smith wanted to keep his current voters even knowing that its hostile territory. There are no Republican parts of Trenton.

Generally, IMO, there are big differences between areas like MN-8, which are full of union Dems and vote for all Democrats besides that clown Oberstar, and places like MI-12, which are the havens for blacks fleeing Detroit, and places like Monmouth County which are of course, anti-tax fiscons and generally vote for most competitive Republicans nowadays. In fact, in 1990, Holmdel was the launching point for the Florio tax revolt. Specific candidates might have some impact, but generally the fundamentals here favor the Republicans and IMO will continue to do so as long as what Torie says holds true.

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I also don't think they're "anti-tax fiscons" in the sense of Republicans in most parts of the country, or even the NJ-5 sense. They're people who become anti-tax when they're paying $14,000 a year in property taxes on a house worth $400,000 that they bought for $40,000 in 1975 or $110,000 in 1984. It's worse when their kids are no longer benefiting from the good schools they used to be happy to pay for. That's going to push anyone to revolt, and has--but is well within the bounds of national Democratic policy.

Democrats nearly took control of the Texas State House on the backs of swing voters like this, pushed in the other direction. But one election favoring Republicans (2010) and those suburban Dems were wiped out.

Well, they aren't in the sense that they aren't historically consistently straight ticket GOP voters like the people in NJ-05 are ; which is partially the fault of the Whitman era GOP. But anti-tax reform guys like Kyrillios have held the legislative districts here relatively easy for a long time now.

They were always anti-tax, though. And not just with Florio in 1990; there were a lot of rejections of school budgets in Monmouth in 1991-1995 compared to the statewide norm; and this was long before the $14k property tax days.

The 2009 revolt won't of course translate upballot to the Presidency. And it won't go downballot anywhere as we hold all the Sussex to Somerset, Monmouth, and Ocean county seats. It might help Christie get 50% of the vote though.


Good point about MI-12 though. I don't think its fair over MN-08 as Dems like Dayton won that easily, but Snyder obviously cleaned up in MI-12.

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What seems to me is that if certain issues are at the forefront and there's a big anti-incumbent wave, there are parts of NJ that will swing one way or another. In 2009 and 2010, it was anti-Corzine and anti-Obama. In 2000, it was against the national Republicans and the social/industrial agenda; in 2001, it was a reaction against 8 years of Christie Whitman.

Right before she resigned, Christie Whitman was quite popular, even among Democrats.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=499

New Jersey voters approve 56 - 35 percent of the job Christine Whitman did as governor. Rating Whitman's handling of specific issues, voters say:

So was the  Difranciscom and President Bush, pre 9/11.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=510

Gov. Donald DiFrancesco's approval is over 50 percent for the first time and now stands at 54 - 17 percent, with 29 percent undecided.


Better said that 2001 was a rebalancing to the fundamental balance of the state as it existed at the time. That's why the 2001 governor's race and the 2000 Presidential race show similar performance in every county across the board, except 2: Ocean and Hudson, which were even so very close. That shows stability, not random quirks such as some dude being from Texas.

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The 2001 Governor's race was something of a fluke. DiFrancesco likely could have held the Governorship against McGreevey or at least kept it close, but he chose to resign after some scandals broke. Republicans had a terrific candidate to replace him in Bob Franks (something of a GOP hero for almost taking down Corzine), but getting him on the ballot required the GOP fudge election laws and postpone a major statewide election.

The backlash for this was large, and only compounded by the fact that Bob Franks could not successfully articulate a reason for being in the race. Despite having near universal organizational support, Franks lost the primary in a landslide to conservative upstart Bret Schundler.

Schundler was too conservative to win in New Jersey -- or, at least, that was the message successfully built by the Democratic opposition. Schundler failed to win over the GOP organization that he led a revolt against, and ultimately, he was left fending for himself as Republican Party resources went into defending GOP legislative majorities above all else. To that end, they did a good job -- Republican candidates held seats in some districts that went 2:1 for Gore a year prior. Republicans drew to a 20-20 draw in the State Senate, one of the better results they could have hoped for.

2001 had little to do with Whitman. True, Schundler's early base was those GOP voters who never approved of Whitman in the first place, but he required so much more to actually score  the Pyhrric victory.

That's true, it had very little to do with Whitman at all. B33 is the one who mentioned here in the first place.

But if is very unlikely that any GOP candidate would have won that year; they were losing in all the polls that Quinnipiac has posted for the entire 2001 cycle.

Which 66% Gore district are you referring to? The GOP held the same 16 they have now, plus 1, 2, 4, and 14. The Democrats came within a few hundred votes of winning 1, didn't run a candidate in 2, and won 4 a couple years later in 2003 despite the fact that the state already disliked McGreevey.

It is no surprise to me that the Democrats would do best in times when jobs are plentiful and tax mutiny is at its low point. On other issues they are a better fit for the state.

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This is the strongest NJ map I could draw. It also splits a lot less townships than the current map.

Monmouth county will get its own Republican when Chris Smith retires. Runyan would be very happy with Willingboro and Cherry Hill removed from his district.

Tiebreaker is a Republican, albiet a Whitman type RINO. Either way, time to merge the 4 NE districts into 3.

http://www.politickernj.com/49637/breaking-dems-and-gop-agree-farmer-13th-member

The consensus choice by Republican and Democratic members to be the 13th member of the congressional redistricting commission is John Farmer, Jr., former attorney general and counsel to the 911 commission.

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With all the Turner excitement, NJ seems to be getting overlooked. Do we see R vs. D R vs. R or D vs. D? Will they try to draw a new coalition or Hispanic influence seat?

Population losses were heaviest in the 4 northeastern Democrat districts, and the tiebreaker is a Republican. If he is half the partisan hack that Rosenthal was the answer is quite clear.

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So is Rothman in trouble with no commission allies and the recent re-ascendance of the Bergen GOP?

That is certainly a valid possibility given how he has many hispanic dominated precincts in his district.

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NyJew is right. The Orthodox move into Lakewood made it the fastest-growing city in the state and McCain's best. Also factor lots of Staten Island and North Jersey white ethnics moving in and you see not only strength for GOP state and federal candidates but also landslides for Chris Smith.

Another question is whether Pallones Monmouth leg gets swallowed, but maybe an open seat with parts of Union, Middlesex and maybe a little bit of Hudson is created for him. Also will Payne representing the lion's share of mostly Latino Elizabeth continue?

That would be an open Dem seat, but not an open seat for Pallone. Some other Democrat would claim it.

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http://pallonefornewjersey.com/


Pallone for Congress changes to this. Interesting.

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Garbage commissions has not worked out well for New Jersey where the commissions keep implementing Democratic gerrymanders.

That said, at least there is a sense of honor in that municipalities are not sliced and diced.

So all commissions draw democratic gerrymanders? Or is it that no republican gerrymander= democratic gerrymander to you? I did a democratic gerrymander in Nj and was able to make the 7th a Dem district in the north. The vra screws things up there. In the south all you gotta do is split the Camden area....doesn't work out well for the pubbies.

They seem, in practice, to have the advantage for reasons unknown, yes. Indeed, the last New Jersey legislative map engaged in a 3 way split of Jersey City and Newark despite the rules specifically stating that there must be a 2 way split.

[krazen1211]

New Jersey's commission is not non-partisan, it's got a clear partisan intent.  And it's not like Democrats wouldn't have the most seats even under a completely non-partisan map. Republicans actually get an extra seat out of New Jersey, under a fair map, they wouldn't.

Which seat would that be? Your problem is actually that the GOP holds all 3 Bush/Obama districts.

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Which seat would that be? Your problem is actually that the GOP holds all 3 Bush/Obama districts.

NJ-3 was drawn to protect Jim Saxton. Ocean County should be contained to one district.

That would be a very valid viewpoint if New Jersey was in the business of containing larger counties into 1 congressional district. As it stands, only Morris, Warren, and the 4 southern counties are.

[krazen1211]

That would be a very valid viewpoint if New Jersey was in the business of containing larger counties into 1 congressional district. As it stands, only Morris, Warren, and the 4 southern counties are.

It's not an issue of counties, which are pretty irrelevant in NJ, but having more than one district go from Delaware River to the shore when there is more justification for a north/south split.

Indeed, but such machinations do not give the Republicans an extra district. There are still 2 Democratic leaning districts in South Jersey.

Given that 3 districts must be placed south of I-195, and that I-195 should not be double crossed, you would likely end up with the same 3 congressman we have now.

Unless you split up the Camden/Camden inner suburbs.

[krazen1211]

That would be a very valid viewpoint if New Jersey was in the business of containing larger counties into 1 congressional district. As it stands, only Morris, Warren, and the 4 southern counties are.

It's not an issue of counties, which are pretty irrelevant in NJ, but having more than one district go from Delaware River to the shore when there is more justification for a north/south split.

Indeed, but such machinations do not give the Republicans an extra district. There are still 2 Democratic leaning districts in South Jersey.

Sure they give an extra Republican seat. A natural map of South Jersey would create two Democratic seats (one in Camden/Gloucester Counties and one in Burlington County), one Republican seat (most of Ocean County) and one marginal seat (Atlantic City, Cape May, outer Gloucester, etc.).

That's a pretty clear communities of interest grouping. The shore gets two districts and the Delaware Valley gets two districts, and each is very cohesive (well, except the Atlantic/Cumberland/Cape May seat, but that area is weird and doesn't fit well with anywhere else, either, so it'll have to do).

Your math is off. South Jersey is roughly 3.3 districts and you gave it 4. As it stands, we hold precisely the 2 districts one would expect even under that configuration, as well as the to be expected Monmouth County district.

I might add, your proposed configuration is highly desirable for the Republican party as you force the Atlantic City district to pick up a nice large chunk of Ocean County, at least compared to the brittain33 proposal which does not seem to do so.

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I see the VRA still being the law of the land. A fair map reflects the VRA. I do not understand the obsession with not splitting municipalities.

My map is here:

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/1196/new-jersey-redistricting-plan

For the most part there is no compelling reason to split any municipalities in any New Jersey mapping. I certainly would not do so under even a GOP gerrymander.

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Anyone think there could be a John Olver style retirement in Jersey?

If so, it will be Pallone, as some people don't like him and he could run for governor.

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Republicans have nearly as many seats as the Democrats because the voters of New Jersey chose to elect them. It simply isn't for you to decide which parties are "overrepresented," and which are not.

Indeed. The Republican candidates got more votes than  the Democratic candidates across all 13 districts in 2010.

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Republicans have nearly as many seats as the Democrats because the voters of New Jersey chose to elect them. It simply isn't for you to decide which parties are "overrepresented," and which are not.

Indeed. The Republican candidates got more votes than  the Democratic candidates across all 13 districts in 2010.

What was the average number of votes cast in Dem-held districts compared to Republican-held districts, and what accounts for the difference?

Certainly they were much lower. Albio Sires won with ~66k votes if I recall. Many Republican losers like Sipprelle got more votes; hence, the above phenomenon.

To be clear, I do not believe that such 'proportional representation' theories hold water, or that the GOP is underrepresented, or that they should have won a 7th district in 2010.

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I grew up in Pascrell's district and always thought it was the best-looking, most compact district in NJ, so I really want to see it survive.  Southern Passaic and suburban Essex is a very logical combination.

Except for the inclusion of the low income city of Paterson, yeah,

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Rothman I dont think was elected, I think he was a judge.

They say the map will be released tonight or tomorrow. I get the feeling that a tighter ship is being run here than with the legislative redistricting but some bitterness that Pascrell refuses to retire and may end up forcing the younger Rothman into a tough race.

Would not be surprising at all, as CD-8 and CD-9 are both smaller than CD-5. This would indeed be consistent with the principles of vengeance, and also consistent with the Rosenthal principles.