Another "who would you vote for in this scenario"

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Revised linguistic stats: Now (this is a rough estimate based on a mathematical average of all provinces and non-mathematical weight of each province) French 79% / English 21%.

Arcadie
French 92%
English 8%

Côtes-du-Nord
French 98%
English 2%

LeGran
French 95%
English 5%

Lorient
French 90%
English 10%

Mont-Neuville
French 96%
English 4%

Presque Isle
French 62%
English 37%
Others (Caribbean and West African languages) 1%

Richelieu
French 67%
English 32%
Others (Caribbean and West African languages) 1%

Saint-André
French 95%
English 5%

Valjean
French 71%
English 29%

Victoria
English 56%
French 44%

Wellington
English 71%
French 29%

Revised map:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Socialist union

Why not Labour?

Good question... I hesitated a lot, I wanted to vote for labour because it's more socially liberal, but when I read their political matrix, I saw there was no great difference. And labour is too moderate on economical issues.

I'm unhappy that you didn't made a major party who was clearly progressive on both issues.

[Hash]

Socialist union

Why not Labour?

SU is more socially liberal, isn't it ? Economical issues are important but I can't bear social conservatism.

No one party is more socially liberal than the other, actually. Both parties have important social liberal factions, but both also have important socially conservative factions. Therefore both are practically neutral. Neither party took a stance on the defeated 2008 gay marriage referendum. Labour officially supports euthanasia now, while the Socialists are neutral.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Socialist union

Why not Labour?

SU is more socially liberal, isn't it ? Economical issues are important but I can't bear social conservatism.

No one party is more socially liberal than the other, actually. Both parties have important social liberal factions, but both also have important socially conservative factions. Therefore both are practically neutral. Neither party took a stance on the defeated 2008 gay marriage referendum. Labour officially supports euthanasia now, while the Socialists are neutral.

Sorry, I was wrong. I corrected my post as soon as possible.

[Hash]

I'm unhappy that you didn't made a major party who was clearly progressive on both issues.

It's not like social issues are that big of an issue. Abortion is legal since 1966, and attempts to repeal the Abortion Act under a Conservative government failed epically. Civil unions are legal since the '90's, though gay marriage is still an issue. Really, the only two issues are gay marriage and euthanasia (which will probably be legalized soon).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm unhappy that you didn't made a major party who was clearly progressive on both issues.

It's not like social issues are that big of an issue. Abortion is legal since 1966, and attempts to repeal the Abortion Act under a Conservative government failed epically. Civil unions are legal since the '90's, though gay marriage is still an issue. Really, the only two issues are gay marriage and euthanasia (which will probably be legalized soon).

So, another good reason to vote for SU. It's clearly more close to my political views on economical issues.

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Provincial legislatures

Arcadie
UDC 50.32% / 18
Tories 21.12% / 7
Labour 19.74% / 7
Greenies 4.53% / 1
Radical 2.11% / 1
Socialist 2.07%
Others 0.11%

Côtes-du-Nord
Socialist 59.7% / 14
Labour 22.42% / 8
Tories 13.45% / 1
UDC 2.45%
Greenies 1.11%
Rads 0.65%
Others 0.22%

LeGran
Socialist 42.12% / 14
Tories 25.81% / 10
Labour 25.43% / 8
UDC 3.21%
Greenies 2.55%
Rads 0.64%
Others 0.24%

Lorient
Tories 38.65% / 7
UDC 28.43% / 4
Labour 28.2% / 4
Greenies 2.84%
Socialist 1.12%
Rads 0.76%

Mont-Neuville
Labour 29.14% / 6
Tories 25.63% / 4
Socialist 22.11% / 2
UDC 21.35% / 2
Greenies 1.32%
Others 0.34%
Rads 0.11%

Presque Isle
Labour 43.22% / 8
Socialist 23.46% / 3
Tories 21.75% / 2
UDC 6.34% / 1
Others 3.55%
Greenies 1.54%
Rads 0.14%

Richelieu
Labour 27.64% / 23
Tories 24.29% / 20
UDC 18.75% / 12
Socialist 17.54% / 11
Greenies 10.35% / 3
Rads 1.11%
Others 0.32%

Saint-André
Tories 53.22% / 15
Labour 24.53% / 6
UDC 16.52% / 5
Socialist 3.2%
Greenies 2.21%
Rads 0.32%

Valjean
Labour 31.12% / 11
Tories 27.65% / 7
UDC 26.63% / 5
Greenies 7.86% / 1
Socialist 5.41%
Rads 0.68%
Others 0.65%

Victoria
Tories 45.74% / 13
Labour 36.86% / 9
Greenies 6.54% / 1
UDC 6.43% / 1
Others 0.32%
Socialist 1.11%

Wellington
Tories 53.23% / 7
Labour 28.81% / 4
Greenies 10.34% / 1
Others 4.32%
UDC 2.34%
Socialist 0.98%

[TeePee4Prez]

Radicals

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Antillia Project Wiki!

[Smid]

That Wiki is really great!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

That Wiki is really great!

Agreed.  If I knew how, I'd create one for Aedicula.

[Smid]

Bumping, because I miss this.

[Hash]

Bumping, because I miss this.

Sure. I doubt anyone cares, but I care, so that's one person. Anyways, here are some facts on constituencies:

First off, Arcadie.



1 (Saint-Jacques-de-l'Arcadie) Held by the Conservatives since 1968, it is a traditionalist conservative constituency and a base of the Christian right in Arcadie. It differs from other rural constituencies in the province not only by its political colour but also its social conservatism and isolationist tendencies. There is some remnants of UDC support in isolated farming communities and Labour is getting stronger with the suburban growth of Charlesville to the south.

2 (Saint-Jacques Ouest) The riding is similar to the 1st constituency, although it is even more solidly Conservative due to the lack of significant suburban communities, although the south of the constituencies are part of the greater agglomeration of Charlesville. And those exurbs vote Conservative, not Labour.

3 (Rivière Blanche) Large rural constituency dominated by moderate Catholic herders and farmers in the high plateaus of Arcadie. Remains loyal to the UDC due to the strong implantation of centrist political dynasties in the whole of the region (although the constituency is far from being as socially liberal as the UDC is nationally).

4 (Valmont) New district created in 2000 due to the suburban sprawl of Richelieu in the south. Most of the constituency, or atleast the south, are now residential exurbs of Richelieu. These communities are socially liberal and economically conservative. The Conservatives are gaining relatively rapidly in these communities and also in rural communities.

5 (Arcadie Sud) A constituency almost identical to 3 (Rivière Blanche). Though not much herding in the plateaus, but a lot more farming and an old dairy industry. Increasingly influenced by the next-door Conservative dairyland in Lorient (more later).

6 (Les Collines de l'Arcadie) A vast constituency which is still somewhat ideologically coherent. The south of the constituency is similar to constituency 3 or 5, and is still dominated by centrist family dynasties. The northern fringe of the constituency includes very de-Christianized secular working-class suburbs of Charlesville which are something like 50-60% Labour. The community of Saint-Marc-de-l'Arcadie in the centre of the constituency is an old industrial town (very devoutly Catholic, mind you) but has become an important retirement community in the beautiful rolling hills of the areas.

7 (Vallées) Used to be a farming constituency similar to Arcadie Sud but has become the outer suburbs of very liberal Fort Rochier and there is also a significant retired population, which gives the Conservative Party a sizable share of the vote. It also includes the exurbs of Charlesville.

8 (Fort Rochier-Nord) The constituency of Radical leader Charles A. Freycinet, which he wins as the sole candidate of the centre-right coalition. The bulk of the Radical vote comes from the suburbs of Fort Rochier and also the remnants of a once-thriving agricultural sector (which would vote Conservative if they could). Labour is a strong party, and it is also the Socialist's strongest Arcadian constituency (not saying much, the Socialists are worth 1-2% in Arcadie). Labour is strong in the old secular mining constituencies in the west along the border with Mont-Neuville.

9 (La Grange) A sociologically diverse suburban constituency of Charlesville held by the Conservatives since the UDC's 2004 rout. The outer areas of the constituency are socially conservative and much older than the provincial average age and most precincts there gave the Conservative candidate 50-60% of the vote. The areas closest to downtown Charlesville (some of which are actually part of the City of Charlesville) are Labour strongholds, due partly to industry and also to the implantation of the General Union of Antillian Workers (UGTA), the trade union closest to the Labour Party.

10 (Charlesville Nord-Ouest) Old affluent suburban community of Charlesville which is economically conservative. Unlike La Grange, there is little Labour support but more UDC support (they held the seat until 2004) in the very wealthy socially liberal areas.

11 (Fort Rochier Ouest) A diverse suburban constituency of Fort Rochier divided between liberal suburbanites who vote UDC and poorer working-class areas which are quite solidly Labour. The Greens are an emerging force in the constituency, which is home to the Provincial College, a very liberal college. The Greens' seat in the provincial legislature is part of the constituency nationally.

12 (Fort Rochier Centre) The metropolitan constituency of Fort Rochier, a city with a large student and middle-class public function/services (or any white-collar job, basically) population, the UDC has kept its lock on the votes of the liberal students and wealthy adult population.

13 (Fort Rochier Est) The constituency is the narrowest of the 3 urban Fort Rochier seats, although it is held by the UDC (albeith by a 1% margin in 2008, 1.3% in 2004 and 2.9% in 2000). The constituency is quite diverse, including old manufacturing villages (very anti-clerical, solidly Labour) but also newer affluent suburban developments.

14 (Charlesville-Les Plaines) Charlesville-Les Plaines is one of the country's most affluent constituencies and is also home to the University of Antillia in Charlesville, which provides a voter base for the local UDC, which is socially liberal.

15 (Charlesville Nord) Charlesville Nord is an old manufacturing area and one of the birthplace of the UGTA, meaning that the poor and, since recently, ethnically diverse, constituency is one of Labour's safest seats in the country.

16 (Charlesville Centre) Once a wealthy city core, the constituency has suffered a loss of its wealthy population to the western and eastern suburbs and has become a relatively poor inner city area riddled by high crime, poverty and recent immigration. This has turned this once safe-UDC seat into a solid Labour seat.

17 (Charlesville Sud) Of Labour's three Arcadian seats, this one is the only one which can be classified as a marginal. It is quite diverse, divided between the 'old' rich who have lived in the area since independence and work in the city's various industry and college graduates and progressive 'yuppies' (styled as the 'new' rich). The former voted Conservative or UDC, the latter vote Labour. In recent years, Labour has often emerged on top thanks to the right's division between Conservative and UDC.

[pogo stick]

None fit my views.

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Côtes-du-Nord



1 (Le Marseau) A solidly Socialist constituency which still has some iron and coal mines in operation to this day. Only the Conservatives are also relevant, in small farming villages on plateaus in the south and west.

2 (Sainte-Claire-des-Mines) A relatively solid Socialist constituency also dominated by old iron and coal mines, so of which are still in operation. The Conservatives have gradually being building up strength in the constituency, along the coast which has seen the implantation of Valjean retirees. There is also some Conservative and UDC support in isolated farming communities in the south.

3 (Villefranche-les-Mines) One of the country's most solid Socialist seat, it is dominated by either mines or old manufacturing factories.

4 (Le Cœur) Le Cœur is also a solid Socialist constituency, laying entirely in the coalfield of northern Antillie.

5 (Côte Saint-Antoine) Of the three northern coalfield constituencies, Côte Saint-Antoine is the most marginal one, though still a slam dunk for Socialists every election. Some old mines have starting closing, and have been replaced by wealthy coastal communities populated by retirees from Port-Audemer or Valjean.

6 (Port-Audemer Sud) Port-Audemer Sud is a suburban constituency of the provincial capital, Port-Audemer. The constituency is home to poor suburban communities dominated by heavy industrial infrastructure and manufacturing. However, two trade unions are well implanted: the Labour Party's UGTA and the Socialist-led Union of Antillian Workers (UTA). There is also some Conservative support in small fishing and farming communities on the low-lying coastal lands.

7 (Port-Audemer Centre) An entirely urban constituency, it is the wealthiest constituency in the province. It is dominated by public servants, service workers but very few manual workers or miners. Therefore, the seat is relatively solidly Labour, though the Socialists have managed to make inroads due partly to the important harbour but also due  to various road projects and construction grants made to local industrialists by the Socialist provincial government. There is some Conservative support in the wealthiest areas of the city (mainly the inner core) and Green support comes from these same areas but also the College of the Côtes-du-Nord campus.

[Smid]

I saw you uploaded the LeGran map. Bumping this back onto the front page.

[Hash]

I saw you uploaded the LeGran map. Bumping this back onto the front page.

Yeah, I should post the stuff on LeGran tonight, if I'm not dead by then.

[Smid]

I've been trying to estimate 2008 vote levels in Arcadie based on your descriptions, the map of the Presidential results, while aiming to get similar averages to the provincial results you posted. It's pretty tough. I'll try emailing it to you next week.

[Marokai Backbeat]

For what it's worth I'd probably be a Socialist leaning Labour/Socialist swing voter.

[Hash]

I've been trying to estimate 2008 vote levels in Arcadie based on your descriptions, the map of the Presidential results, while aiming to get similar averages to the provincial results you posted. It's pretty tough. I'll try emailing it to you next week.

Wow, thanks. If you ever need any help on anything calculating that, please PM me. I should be able to help out.

LeGran



1 (Saint-Antoine) This long and thin constituency along the northern coast includes the industrial exurbs and old light manufacturing centres around Bras-sur-Mer. To the north, the constituency enters the Coal Country of LeGran. Socialist support is strong throughout, though Labour held the seat representing the area until 1992.

2 (Mines-Atlantique) A relatively solid Socialist constituency covering part of the Coal Country, with small isolated herding higher up in the mountains. There is limited Conservative support in small, new affluent coastal retirement communities. 

3 (Côte du Charbon) One of the most solid Socialist constituencies in the country, the second constituency is entirely located in the Coal Country. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives have constituency organizations in this area.

4 (Saint-Justin) A solid Socialist constituency which covers the southern portion of the old Coal Country, though it includes some farms in the valleys. The constituency is universally Socialist, though there is some Labour support in service-oriented towns.

5 (Mont LeGran) A sparsely populated constituency covering some old isolated coal mining villages as well as poor isolated farms and villages. There is a lot of protest voting in this very poor and 'forgotten' constituency, most of it is Socialist. After four years in government, the Socialists suffered a large swing against them (benefiting the Conservative and, ironically, the Greens, who polled 4.5%) in 2008.

6 (Vallée-des-Lys) A marginal constituency held by the Socialists since 2004, it can be split in two distinctive areas: the urbanized west of the constituency, dominated by old working-class manufacturing centres and the rural east, dominated by herding and light agriculture. The rural areas are Conservative, but low turnout in these economically-depressed rural areas (also 'forgotten', like Mont LeGran's rural areas) allowed the Socialists to win in 2004.

7 (Autain) A three-way marginal constituency similar to the sixth constituency, it follows a similar political divide. However, Labour is strong in Autain, a lower middle-class suburb of Bras-sur-Mer with an important immigrant population (from North Africa) and a lot of social housing units. The Socialists are stronger in the older white working-class areas and the Conservatives dominate the isolated rural eastern swathes.

8 (Autain-La Côte) Another marginal constituency between Conservatives and Socialist, Autain-La Côte is split between the affluent coastal suburbs of Bras-sur-Mer and its Victorian-style sumptuous mansions on one hand, and the city of Autain, which leans Socialist, on the other. This constituency is less diverse than the seventh, since it includes only the old white working-class areas of Autain.

9 (Bordeaux) The only Labour held seat in the province, the ninth includes the lower middle-class suburb of Bordeaux, which, unlike its neighbors, is not an old manufacturing centre and rather populated by people who commute to work in Bras-sur-Mer, a lot working for the provincial government. It also includes a large Algerian community and a lot of social housing.

10 (Marleux) Marleux is one of the poorest constituencies in the country, including the old working-class town of Marleux. The constituency is dominated by large factories, smaller light manufacturing centres and crime-ridden run-down apartment blocks. The constituency also has a significant black Caribbean population (17% English-speaking), which generally vote Socialist or Labour.

11 (Bras-sur-Mer Centre) Bras-sur-Mer is a bourgeois enclave in proletarian country, and has been since the 1950s as a lot of poorer inhabitants moved into the suburbs (Marleux and Autain) with the growth of heavy dirty industry there. The city of Bras-sur-Mer is known for its high housing prices and its exorbitant cost of living, so it is largely populated by affluent urbanites. The constituency votes Conservative, but a lot is a personal vote for its MP since the area is more and more socially liberal - voting for gay marriage in 2008.

12 (Bras-sur-Mer Nord) The twelfth includes the remaining industrial areas of the legal city of Bras-sur-Mer. Similar in demographics to Marleux, it is a solid Socialist seat. There is, however, significant gentrification in the prized coastal areas, where old shipping infrastructure is being replaced by condos.

13 (Saint-Emilien) A marginal constituency similar to the seventh constituency, though it is far more rural and farming is still a large industry. It does include some exurban industrial areas, mostly light industry related to agriculture. The rest of the constituency is isolated, conservative with herding and farming as main industries.

14 (La Côte Sud) A largely rural, socially conservative and agricultural area covered mostly by small independent farms and parcels of land used for herding. Along the coast, there are also small fishing communities. A universally Conservative seat, though the area elected a UDC MP in 1964.

15 (Plantations) The fifteenth is an isolated - and isolationist - rural conservative seat located up in the mountains similar in demographics and politics to the fourteenth constituency. It is dotted with small farming communities and isolated herding villages. It is also almost universally Conservative.

16 (LeGran Sud) The sixteenth remains largely similar to its neighbors, though it has seen some demographic evolution. There has been some urban growth in the valley in the south of the constituency, with the implantation of retirees or people seeking a countryside life in an idyllic landscape. The rest remains agricultural, with farmers or fishermen. The seat is solidly Conservative, though the implants in their valley are known for their 'awkward' social liberalism and environmentalism. The Greens and UDC both polled well here in 2004 and 2008.

Note: In LeGran, immigrants vote Labour while in Richelieu they vote Socialist. That's because the LeGran Socialist machine used to be quite nativist and white working-class, while in Richelieu, the Socialist machine is newer and less dominated by white working-class interests.