Indonesian presidential election
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Author Topic: Indonesian presidential election  (Read 8146 times)
politicus
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« on: May 20, 2014, 11:01:36 AM »

The worlds third largest democracy will be electing a new President on July 9. The currenct one is term limited.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_presidential_election,_2014

Do we got some resident experts on Indonesia?
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politicus
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2014, 04:51:26 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2014, 06:33:55 PM by politicus »

Yesterday Jakarta governor and leading presidential candidate Joko "Jokowi" Widodo made  popular former vice president Yusuf Kalla (72) his running mate which will likely strenghten his credibility with the business comunity.

Jokowi is leading national opinion polls pretty big and is backed by Nasdem, PKB and Hanura Party and former president Megawati Sukarnoputri’s PDIP.

Meanwhile Golkar, Indonesias second-largest party, unexpectedly backed his main challenger.  Even if its party chairman and business tycoon Aburizal Bakrie said just last week he would cooperate with Jokowi's coalition.

They decided yesterday to back Jokowi's only rival for the presidency, former General Prabowo Subianto. The move comes despite signs late last week that the party was preparing to back Jokowi. Kalla is also from Golkar Party, so he might help split their vote.
 
Subianto has announced his running mate will be current economics minister Hatta Rajasa. Subianto is an ex commander in the infamous Kopassus special forces and former son-in-law of ex-dictator Suharto and has been accused of human rights abuses in East Timor in the 1980s.
 

 
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politicus
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2014, 05:48:39 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2014, 06:35:54 AM by politicus »

Thus the Suharto-Gen. can rely on the Dem.P.?

Yes.


I see we have this https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=185433.0, but it is a single post thread, so I will let this one stay.

Apparently we never discussed the parliamentary election i April.

You need 20% of the seats in parliament or 25% of the votes to field a candidate, which is why there are only two candidates, backed by such heterogeneous coalitions.
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politicus
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2014, 06:06:28 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2014, 06:41:53 PM by politicus »

Seats in parliament. Just for comparison.

1. Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle (Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan, PDI–P 109
Poulist and nationalist. Megawati Sukarnoputris party.
 
2. Party of the Functional Groups (Partai Golongan Karya, Golkar) 91
Suhartos old party.


3. Great Indonesia Movement Party (Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya, Gerindra) 73
Political vehicle of ex Generals.
 
4. Democratic Party (Partai Demokrat, PD) 61
The current Presidents party.
 

5. National Mandate Party (Partai Amanat Nasional, PAN) 49
Islamists
 

6. National Awakening Party (Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa, PKB) 47
Conservative Islamist from the influential Natdlatul Ulama movement.


7. Prosperous Justice Party (Partai Keadilan Sejahtera, PKS) 40
Islamists
 

8. United Development Party (Partai Persatuan Pembangunan, PPP) 39
Old Islamist party dating back to the Suharto era.
 

9. Nasdem Party (Partai Nasdem, Nasdem) 35
Tool of media tycoon Surya Paloh, who is ex  Golkar

10. People's Conscience Party (Partai Hati Nurani Rakyat, Hanura) 16
General Wirantos party.
 

Total 560


Subianto is from Gerindra and supported by DC and Golkar and the trade unions in KSPI.



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ericpolitico
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2014, 09:14:27 PM »

hey...I am Indonesian..nice to see this thread..=)

This elections looks very similar to 2008 us presidential elections.

The Joko "Jokowi" Widodo –Jusuf Kalla resembles Barack Obama-Joe Biden ticket in many ways. The most interesting facts are that both Jokowi and Obama (53) and Kalla and Biden (72) actually have the same age. Jokowi himself is always compared to the Barack Obama of 2008, having enjoyed an Obama-style rise from obscurity to the forefront of national politics.

Prabowo can be Hillary or McCain...former frontrunner who comes from establishment..

For now, Jokowi is still favourite..but Prabowo is closing gap...I think Jokowi will still win like Obama's margin in 2008..53-47...
Indonesians want a fresh figure like Jokowi ( like how US in 2008 wants Obama), not the old politicians from New Order remnants. Prabowo is son in law of Soeharto. But many criticizes Jokowi as inexperienced candidate and his decision to run after only serves as Governor of Jakarta for less than 2 years ( sounds familiar, Obama too inexperienced, only serves as senator for less than 3 years). Jokowi is running on the platform "CHANGE"....( aha..another similarity..)
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politicus
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2014, 06:43:22 AM »
« Edited: May 25, 2014, 06:50:08 AM by politicus »

hey...I am Indonesian..nice to see this thread..=)


The only one AFAIK, so destined to become our resident expert on the subject Smiley. Welcome to the forum!

Why do the trade unions in KSPI back Subianto? Jokowi would seem like a more labour friendly candidate.
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ericpolitico
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2014, 10:30:00 AM »

hey...I am Indonesian..nice to see this thread..=)


The only one AFAIK, so destined to become our resident expert on the subject Smiley. Welcome to the forum!

Why do the trade unions in KSPI back Subianto? Jokowi would seem like a more labour friendly candidate.

Hey thanks for the warm welcome..haha
 there are many trade union organizations..KSPI backs Prabowo, KSBSI backs Jokowi...hmm, i think both Gerindra and PDIP promises a labour friendly populist rhetoric...why KSPI endorse Prabowo? maybe because own preference or maybe the leaders has personal connection with Prabowo, and highly likely Prabowo promises them  personal benefits..haha
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2014, 11:08:26 AM »

The world's biggest Muslim democracy will vote on Wednesday.

Indonesia has 250 Mio. people, of which ca. 190 Mio. will be eligible to vote in the election.

Turnout will likely be very high, in the 80-85% range, which means about 150 Mio. people will vote (20 Mio. more than in the US presidential election).

...

Latest polls indicate that Indonesia's "Obama" is losing his once huge lead in the polls and some polls have even shown him trailing his opponent.

The "Economist" (which backs "Obama") argues that Jokowi is running mostly on his anti-corruption image and popularity as Gov. of Jakarta, while actually having a - quote - "naive and amateurish" election campaign (which makes him the total opposite of the actual Obama, who had a very skillful campaign operation). The "Economist" also notes that Jokowi lacks the charisma of the real Obama.

They still endorsed him for the election over his opponent, because of his anti-corruption policies/governing, modesty and focus on education and positive approach to foreign investors, while his opponent represents "the past".

My prediction (2-person only, excl. invalid/blank votes):

51.4% Jokowi
48.6% Prabowo

Indonesia's "Obama" barely pulls it off ... Tongue

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2014, 11:24:15 AM »

This is a real race now, but the latest Jakarta Globe poll shows that Jokowi's lead is increasing a bit again:

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2014, 11:35:20 AM »

The Jakarta Globe presents a rough guide to the issues that matter:

Prabowo/Hatta-ticket:

Economic policy: Collaborate with the private sector and foreign investors; limit foreign investment; annual GDP growth of 7 to 10 percent; reject nationalization; anti-privatization; anti-trade liberalization; infrastructure investment (railways).

Political reform: Strong state control and centralization; fight graft; 30 percent quota for women in the cabinet.

Social: Build a national identity, fight intolerance.

Education & health care: State-funded 12-year compulsory education; require graduate doctors to serve in poor areas.

Energy: Review foreign investment in energy; encourage domestic investment; biofuel research; limit exports; pursue limited protectionism.

Defense: Better pay for police, soldiers and veterans.

Foreign policy: Cooperate with both China and Japan.

Jokowi/Kalla-ticket:

Economic policy: Gradual reduction of fuel subsidy; infrastructure investment (ports and airports).

Political reform: Fight graft in judiciary and tax office.

Social: End rights abuses; investigate past rights violations; combat religious intolerance.

Education & health care: Emphasis on behavior and ethics in schools; state-funded health care for the poor.

Energy: Limit energy imports; keep mineral export ban.

Defense: Increase military spending to 1.5 percent of GDP.

Foreign policy: Expand economic and naval ties with neighbors.

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/platform-politics-presidential-candidates-stand-key-issues
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« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2014, 11:50:01 AM »

Those platforms don't sound that much different...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2014, 12:01:38 PM »


Yeah, both seem to be populist, pro-welfare, protectionist and nationalist (Prabowo probably slightly more so).

Here are more issue differences from the 3rd TV debate:

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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2014, 01:45:16 PM »

Can we stop comparing people to Barack Obama? I thought that ended with Walter Veltroni.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2014, 01:59:55 PM »

Can we stop comparing people to Barack Obama? I thought that ended with Walter Veltroni.

By his inspirational speech and clear words Xahar has become the Barack Obama of the anti-comparing-everyone-to-Barack-Obama campaign.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2014, 03:40:33 AM »

Exit Polls:

Jokowi wins by a ca. 5-point margin.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2014, 07:19:54 AM »

I have found at least 3 exit polls which have the Jokowi-Kalla ticket winning with 52-54%.

Prabowo/Hatta refuses to concede though and says "their polls have them winning".

Official results will be announced in ca. 2 weeks.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2014, 08:16:50 AM »

There are at least 8 exit polls and 4 of them have the Jokowi-Kalla ticket ahead and 4 have Prabowo/Hatta ahead:





Let's see how this turns out ... Tongue
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jaichind
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2014, 08:30:15 AM »

Markets are going to fall if Prabowo wins.  Most likely he will not.  On the other hand who ever wins the loser will most likely contest the results.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2014, 09:53:11 AM »

Woah. Talk about a close election.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2014, 01:26:15 AM »

What's the llikelihood of political violence in the case of a disputed result.
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« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2014, 01:59:22 AM »

There are at least 8 exit polls and 4 of them have the Jokowi-Kalla ticket ahead and 4 have Prabowo/Hatta ahead:





Let's see how this turns out ... Tongue

Maybe we need an exit poll of the exit polls.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2014, 10:01:59 AM »

There are now 8 quick count/exit polls which show a Jokowi-win and 4 that show a Prabowo-win.

However, this article suggests that the quick count/exit poll agencies that show a Jokowi-win have been more accurate in past elections than the agencies showing a Prabowo-win (and who are owned mostly by wealthy TV station owners which have close ties to him).

The article also says this:

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jaichind
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« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2014, 11:41:31 AM »

Just as important as to who wins is the alliance configuration in the Indonesian Parliament.  Prabowo leads seven-party pact called a "permanent coalition" including Gerindra, Golkar, Democratic Party, Crescent Star Party and three Islamic parties.  Together these parties control 353 of 560 seats in the lower house.  But this alliance is based on the assumption that Prabowo will win.  There are signs that Golkar with 91 seats might defect in part of in whole over to Jokowi if case Jokowi wins.  There are also signs that the Demokrat party of outgoing president Yudhoyo with 61 seats might do the same.  Unofficial early seems to indicate that Jokowi is ahead by 5.6% and if this translates into a victory Jokowi could then pull off a government coalition.  This scenario seems still the most likely scenario.
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jaichind
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« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2014, 01:16:59 PM »

 Kawalpemilu.org which tracks actual results from polling stations that are then uploaded to the Elections Commissions site seems to indicate that Jokowi has 52.8% vs Prabowo 47.1% so far.
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jaichind
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« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2014, 01:20:21 PM »

What's the llikelihood of political violence in the case of a disputed result.

I haven't seen much discussion of that in the media, but the only Indonesian I know was seriously concerned about the possibility when I spoke with him about the election a couple of months ago.

I guess the reason why there is fear of violence has to do with the way the campaign has been waged.  Jokowi had a large lead but the race narrowed as Prabowo's allies pushed the line that Jokowi is a crypto-Christian and a crypto-Chinese, both unlikely to be true.  But I guess for people that took these whisper campaign claims seriously the thought of a Christian and Chinese being president could be troubling and in turn leads to violence in case Jokowi wins, as it seems likely.
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