French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[minionofmidas]

Since I suppose we can expect Le Pen to do better than he is polling now ... the question is: which candidate will he take the most from, thus denying that candidate the runoff?

[Hash]

Well, first Le Pen needs to run- last I heard he had troubles with his 500 endorsements, due on the 16th. If he can't get them, it will be a major loss to the campaign IMO, you may hate him, but he still counts for a considerable share of the vote. If he's out, it will be interesting to see who takes the far-right votes of Le Pen... Villiers?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He'll get the signatures; he's likely just fooling around for symphathy; did it last time round as well.
IIRC one of the far left candidates is having more genuine trouble though.

[Verily]

He'll get the signatures; he's likely just fooling around for symphathy; did it last time round as well.
IIRC one of the far left candidates is having more genuine trouble though.

Besancenot is having trouble. I think a lot of PS mayors are not supporting him to make sure that Royal makes it to the second round.

[Umengus]

Things have taken another turn for the unpredictable then. Btw, why so sure that Bayrou will collapse? (serious question, not even slightly loaded or anything like that).

Bayrou has no solid basisground. New People who say to vote for him are not sure and the probability that they can change their mind is great. Secondly, the anti-system stance of bayrou is just a joke. Thirdly, this guy has no ideas behalve a government between center-right and center-left leaders. His model is the grand coalition in Germany.  And Bayrou has not the charisma for the job.

Note that Bayrou rise in poll is provoked by the bad campaign leaded by royal and Sarkozy: no strong measures, no great ideas,... The atmosphere seems to be the same that in 2002: slackness. But yesterday, sarkozy has given a new start at the campaign:

"PARIS (Reuters) - French presidential hopeful Nicolas Sarkozy was accused by his rivals of xenophobia and flirting with far-right voters on Friday after proposing to create a ministry for immigration and national identity.

The Socialist party called for him to retract the idea and centrist Francois Bayrou said he had gone too far in the latest round of mudslinging among politicians as the campaign for the April- May election intensifies.

Sarkozy, who is the interior minister for the ruling centre-right UMP party, sparked the row by proposing to create the new ministry if he is elected as part of his plan to streamline the government.

"I want a ministry of national immigration and national identity because today, the immigration portfolio is split between three different ministries," he said on Thursday.

Sarkozy has made a tough line on immigration a feature of his campaign in what has been seen as an effort to pick off votes from far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen, who stunned France in the 2002 presidential election by finishing second.

Sarkozy is just ahead of Socialist Segolene Royal in opinion polls, but a poll this week showed that centrist Francois Bayrou was snapping at their heels.

Sarkozy has responded to the emergence of Bayrou by softening his stance to woo the centrist vote but critics said his latest comments on immigration were a clear play to pick up support from the far right.

Socialist party leader Francois Hollande said the comments were a "serious flirt" with the theories of Le Pen's National Front party while Communist candidate Marie-George Buffet said the idea was "xenophobic". 
Le Pen runs on a platform of hardline immigration policies but he says he is struggling to collect the 500 mayoral signatures needed to run in the election.

Sarkozy has come to his aid, promising to fight to make sure that Le Pen is allowed to participate."

[Umengus]

He'll get the signatures; he's likely just fooling around for symphathy; did it last time round as well.
IIRC one of the far left candidates is having more genuine trouble though.

Problems for Le Pen (and besancenot) are real (like in 2002). 

[Gustaf]

So are independent candidacies impossible in France then?

[Hash]

It's been a long time since they were, as long as I can remember. If Chirac does run, which he'll say on the 12th, he'll most probably run as an independent.

On Bayrou- that guy's a joke, he's rising in the polls because Royal is bombing it.

[afleitch]

It's been a long time since they were, as long as I can remember. If Chirac does run, which he'll say on the 12th, he'll most probably run as an independent.

On Bayrou- that guy's a joke, he's rising in the polls because Royal is bombing it.

I disagree; both with your opinion of Bayrou and on why he's rising so fast Royal has actually been pretty stable in the polls these past two/three weeks, drifting between the mid to high twenties. It is Sarkozy who has seen his support dip from the low 30's to the mid twenties. Bayrou originally benefited from Royal's drift downwards, now he's teasing away support from Sarkozy with his centrist stance.

With Royal and Sarkozy now both trying to savage Bayrou (and keep this a left v right race perhaps) they are proving his point; that left and right have a stranglehold on the French political scene, both the moderate left and right and the far left and right.

[afleitch]

IFOP

Sarkozy 28%
Bayrou 23%
Royal 23%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things look to be quite open right now don't they? Anyone who makes any predictions now is official A Fool...

Btw, any figures for Le Pen and the far-lefties?

[afleitch]

Things look to be quite open right now don't they? Anyone who makes any predictions now is official A Fool...

Btw, any figures for Le Pen and the far-lefties?

Le Pen scores 13% (I wonder what happens if he genuinely fails to reach the 500 mark?) Nothing about the 'lefties'; in other polls their fluctuating support and interchangeable seems to nothing more than 'statistical noise.' I strangely 'like' Besancenot though so I hope he's able to run

[Verily]

IFOP

Sarkozy 28%
Bayrou 23%
Royal 23%

Is Bayrou ahead of Royal? Obviously it wouldn't be by a statistically significant amount, but this would still be the first poll with Bayrou in second.

Bayrou's rise might be compared to that of Chevenement in 2002, but Chevenement never came particularly close to the frontrunners; Bayrou is now among them. In any case, Chevenement was still left-wing and drew voters almost exclusively from Jospin.

In any case, Sarkozy's hardline immigration approach will draw voters to him from Le Pen and may guarantee that he makes the second round, but it will also drive the center-right further to Bayrou.

[Angel of Death]

If Bayrou is the Condorcet winner, as the polls are now consistently suggesting, then democratic fairness dictates that he should become the next President. It's as simple as that.

[Verily]

I haven't been to find that IFOP poll anywhere. Could you give a link, afleitch?

[afleitch]

I haven't been to find that IFOP poll anywhere. Could you give a link, afleitch?

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/11032007/363/sondage-francois-bayrou-rattrape-segolene-royal.html

It also says that should Le Pen fail to make the ballot we would have;

Sarkozy 34.5
Bayrou 25
Royal 24

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, the newest Ipsos poll is something like 31/25/21. Is there a site that tracks poll numbers from all companies?

[afleitch]

Btw, the newest Ipsos poll is something like 31/25/21. Is there a site that tracks poll numbers from all companies?

I use Le Monde, though they can be slow to update

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/vi/0,47-0@2-823448,54-848463,0.html

Once you are in the main 'Presidentielles' site, click on 'Sondages' and you get a nifty list of polling companies and polls for each round.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/sequence/0,2-823448,1-0,0.html

EDITl Two links as im not sure which one will work!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Merci

Some of the differences between the different polling companies are quite interesting.

[afleitch]

Merci

Some of the differences between the different polling companies are quite interesting.

True; also the high number of abstentions that seems to come with all presiential polls goin back a number of years makes things complicated. Le Pen has 'flatlined' but is a good 3, 4 points ahead of his support this time during the 2002 race. It is probably in Royals best interests for Le Pen to appear on the ballot,

Neither can Bayrou be equated with Balladur who began the campaign with around 30% and fell from then on into a tussle with Jospin for the second place spot (Jospin however rallied at the 11th hour and of course came in first - again the polls got it wrong) I don't think any of the four leading candidates are certain to go through but neither can any be ruled out.

[Silent Hunter]

Chirac's officially announced he's not running for a third term.

[Umengus]

I haven't been to find that IFOP poll anywhere. Could you give a link, afleitch?

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/11032007/363/sondage-francois-bayrou-rattrape-segolene-royal.html

It also says that should Le Pen fail to make the ballot we would have;

Sarkozy 34.5
Bayrou 25
Royal 24

Le Pen will be candidate. Thank you Sarkozy who has needed the votes of le pen for the second run.

[Umengus]

If Bayrou is the Condorcet winner, as the polls are now consistently suggesting, then democratic fairness dictates that he should become the next President. It's as simple as that.

Not sure that Bayrou would beat Sarko.

[Verily]

If Bayrou is the Condorcet winner, as the polls are now consistently suggesting, then democratic fairness dictates that he should become the next President. It's as simple as that.

Not sure that Bayrou would beat Sarko.

55-45 would be quite a margin for Sarkozy to recover.

[afleitch]

If Bayrou is the Condorcet winner, as the polls are now consistently suggesting, then democratic fairness dictates that he should become the next President. It's as simple as that.

Not sure that Bayrou would beat Sarko.

55-45 would be quite a margin for Sarkozy to recover.

And considering Sego has a hard time in the polls against Sarko if I was a Royal supporter, or more accurately 'anti-Sarko' then I'd think about voting Bayrou in the first round as he seems to be the only one able to beat Sarkozy in the second round.