French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why not? Bayrou himself has more than doubled his poll numbers in a very short space of time; things can change very quickly in French politics.

[Verily]

The centrists, at least, are rallying behind one candidate. Edouard Fillias, the candidate for the Alternative liberale (one of the statistical noise parties) has withdrawn and endorsed Bayrou.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/depeches/0,14-0,39-30104084@7-354,0.html

[Umengus]

CSA poll

Schivardi: 0,5 (+0,5)
Laguiller: 2% (+1)
Besancenot: 2% (-0,5)
Buffet: 2% (+1)
Bové: 2% (-1)

Royal: 26% (+1)
Voynet: 1% (=)

Bayrou: 21% (-3)

Nihous: 0,5% (=)

Sarkozy: 27% (+1)

De Villiers: 1,5% (+0,5)

Le Pen: 14% (=)

Turnout: 77% (+1)

Royal: 47% (=)
Sarkozy: 53% (=)

CSA tests Bayrou against royal and sarkozy but refuse to give results...

Comment: First poll to give bayrou losing %. Not the last, in my opinion.

My (first) prediction:

Sarkozy: 25%
Royal: 21%
Le Pen: 20%
Bayrou: 16%

I have forgotten my paper to office. hence, I will give my prediction for the others candidates soon.

Note that some pollsters and lots of politicians think  that Le Pen is underestimed in polls. They think, and for me they are right, that he will break the 20% line.

[Verily]

Ipsos also released a poll today:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15058

Sarkozy: 28.5 (-2.5)
Royal: 24 (-1.5)
Bayrou: 23 (+1.5)
Le Pen: 13.5 (+1)

The others are just noise. FWIW, CSA's poll was an outlier when it came out, so it could just be a correction for Bayrou. Ipsos had been giving Bayrou his lowest numbers, so we shall see.

Also, your assertion that Le Pen is actually at 20% is frankly absurd. Le Pen's vote has been extremely stable for 3 straight elections, always around 15%. The highest he could possibly get is 17% of the vote, and that would involve Sarkozy collapsing.

I suppose I should make a prediction, too:

Sarkozy: 27
Bayrou: 24
Royal: 24 (extremely close, but behind Bayrou)
Le Pen: 16

[afleitch]

I think there is still the distinct possibility, at present, that Bayrou could actually top the poll. Od course we still have a long way to go and he could fade.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The following have enough signatures to appear on the ballot:

Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, Le Pen, Besancenot, Buffet, Laguiller, Nihous, Schivardi, de Villiers, Voynet

Bove is reported to be uncertain whether he has enough or not.

[Verily]

Interesting. If Bove doesn't make it, will it help Royal make the second round, or will his numbers just collapse into the statistical noise and go to Besancenot or Buffet?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting. If Bove doesn't make it, will it help Royal make the second round, or will his numbers just collapse into the statistical noise and go to Besancenot or Buffet?

When he entered the race he mainly took from Besancenot and Buffet IIRC.

[afleitch]

Interesting. If Bove doesn't make it, will it help Royal make the second round, or will his numbers just collapse into the statistical noise and go to Besancenot or Buffet?

When he entered the race he mainly took from Besancenot and Buffet IIRC.

Yes - though in recent weeks seems to have lost support back to them, of course all figures for the far left are nothing more than noise.

[Umengus]

Ipsos also released a poll today:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15058

Sarkozy: 28.5 (-2.5)
Royal: 24 (-1.5)
Bayrou: 23 (+1.5)
Le Pen: 13.5 (+1)


Also, your assertion that Le Pen is actually at 20% is frankly absurd. Le Pen's vote has been extremely stable for 3 straight elections, always around 15%. The highest he could possibly get is 17% of the vote, and that would involve Sarkozy collapsing.

Absurd?

Le Pen+Megret in 2002= 19,2% Megret voters should vote for le pen and not for sarkozy. You can add the St josse voters (rural party) which did 4% at last presidential election. Le pen should catch the half of these. The violence in suburbs, the immigration problem wich take importance (crime will be maybe for the last days), the "normalization" of lepen stances (by sarkozy and co),... play well for le Pen.

De villiers's impact seems zero and only Sarkozy can, but probably not at the first run, catch some FN voters.

[afleitch]

Time's reporting that a disgruntled advisor attacked Segolene as 'an incompetent amateur and egomaniac who was a danger to France.' With her only motive being 'personal glory' Oh dear, oh dear.

[Hash]

Who's the genius who said that?

[Maastricht]

Who's the genius who said that?

Eric Besson, the former secretary for economic questions, who resigned from the PS two months ago.

[Umengus]

Time's reporting that a disgruntled advisor attacked Segolene as 'an incompetent amateur and egomaniac who was a danger to France.' With her only motive being 'personal glory' Oh dear, oh dear.

Chirac thinks the same about sarkozy but he will not it say.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Time's reporting that a disgruntled advisor attacked Segolene as 'an incompetent amateur and egomaniac who was a danger to France.' With her only motive being 'personal glory' Oh dear, oh dear.

Chirac thinks the same about sarkozy but he will not it say.

Or rather says it so much that no-one cares any more.

Either way, Bayrou is my choice now that LePage and Fillias have dropped out. Go Bayrou. (Even though I'm not very happy with the idea of yet another "farmers champion" being French president - but better than the alternatives it seems.)

[minionofmidas]

Time's reporting that a disgruntled advisor attacked Segolene as 'an incompetent amateur and egomaniac who was a danger to France.' With her only motive being 'personal glory' Oh dear, oh dear.

Chirac thinks the same about sarkozy but he will not it say.

I doubt anyone is dumb enough not to *know* that about Sarkozy.

[Cubby]

I've supported Royal since late 2005, but from what I've heard so far, Bayrou would be great too.

Royal's grand list of programs a few weeks ago seemed very old-school socialist to me. I'm starting to wonder if I should switch to Bayrou.

I don't hate Sarkozy, but I like him far less than Chirac, who wasn't that bad.

Will Bayrou being Occitan (or Occitan-speaking?) be an issue of any kind in this election?

[afleitch]

With Bayrou you get substance. Sarkozy and Royal both have keen minds, and while I prefer Sarkozy over Royal neither are that endearing.

[Maastricht]

Final list of the twelve candidates (and the results for each candidate of the TNS poll on the 15 of march):

Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN, far-right)                      12%
Philippe de Villiers (MPF, right, souverainist)     0,5%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP, right)                             31%
Frédéric Nihous (CPNT, right)                            0,5%
François Bayrou (UDF, center)                          22%
Ségolène Royal (PS, left)                                  24%
Dominique Voynet (Greens, left)                      1%
Olivier Besancenot (LCR, trotskyst)                  2%
Arlette Laguillier (LO, trotskyst)                        2%
Marie-George Buffet (PCF, communist)             2,5%
José Bové (independant, far-left)                     2%
Gérard Schivardi (independant far-left)            0,5%

[Hash]

How can CPNT be considered right or left? The only thing I know other than their recreational/hunting policy is refusal of the admission of Turkey...

[Umengus]

This poll was predicted...

BVA poll

Schivardi: 0,5 =
Laguiller: 2% (=)
Besancenot: 4% (+1)
Buffet: 4% (+1)
Bové: 2% (=)

Voynet: 1% (=)
Royal: 24% (+1)

Nihous: 0,5% (=)

Bayrou: 17% (-4)

Sarkozy: 31% (+2)

De villiers: 1% (-1)

Le Pen: 13% (=)

Did not express: 15%

Royal: 46% (-3)
Sarkozy: 56% (+3)

did not express: 16%

The only chance for Bayrou to regain votes is to appear like the only candidate to beat Sarkozy.

My prediction for the next: rise of le pen and fall of Sarkozy. To match with the reality.

Note that the "commission of polls" says the 2 csa polls (giving Bayrou +7 and -3) had mistakes in their elaboration (the correction by pollsters were crazy).

Ipsos tracking poll gives Bayrou at 18,5% (-2).

[Umengus]

How can CPNT be considered right or left? The only thing I know other than their recreational/hunting policy is refusal of the admission of Turkey...

CPNT is rural. His voters are conservative. Will ovte Sarkozy. But 0,5% is not 4,3%, result in 2002.

[Hash]

The true campaign has only started. Nihous will probably have more airtime and campaign more know he's sure to be in. He'll probably raise his percentage.

Haha. Bayrou losing!

[Umengus]

Paris Riot Puts Security on Top, Aiding Le Pen (Update2)

By Francois de Beaupuy

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Riots at a Paris train station this week put crime at the center of the French presidential campaign, aiding nationalist leader Jean-Marie Le Pen and hurting Socialist party candidate Segolene Royal, a poll showed.

Le Pen gained 2 points with 15 percent of the April 22 vote, a CSA poll held March 28 and 29 showed. Royal would get 24.5 percent, down 1.5 points from a week earlier. Governing party candidate Nicolas Sarkozy remained at 26 percent. In the presidential runoff on May 6, Sarkozy would defeat Royal 52-48, up from 50-50 a week ago, today's poll showed.

Law-and-order and security issues play into the hands of Le Pen, the leader of the anti-immigration National Front, while Royal is perceived as soft on crime after she and other opposition leaders blamed the violence on the strong-arm tactics of the police, political analysts said.

``The Socialist party isn't in a position to reassure people on security as much as the right,'' Dominique Reynie, a senior researcher at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris, said in an interview. ``Neither Sarkozy, nor Royal should stick with that theme. People may vote for the National Front.''

More than 100 people fought with the police on March 27 at the Paris train station of Gare du Nord, which handles the Eurostar service to London, suburban trains and the subway. Violence broke out after a ticket check in the subway. Images of youths destroying stores and ticket booths raised the specter of the 2005 riots, when thousands of cars were burned in three weeks of violence in suburbs populated mostly by immigrants from North and sub-Saharan Africa and their French-born offspring.

The Blame Game

``In 2005, urban violence benefited Nicolas Sarkozy and Jean-Marie Le Pen,'' said Jean-Daniel Levy, a director at Paris- based pollster CSA, in an interview today. Voters ``are waiting for'' Royal ``to take a stand,'' he said.

Le Pen's party blamed this week's riots on Sarkozy, the former interior minister, and the government's ``lax'' immigration policies.

``The repetition of riots point to the failure of the supposed `security policy' of Sarkozy,'' the National Front said in a statement on March 28. ``The situation is the direct consequence of the massive and insane immigration policy conducted by successive governments over the past 30 years.''

Royal faulted Sarkozy's tough law-and-order policy. She said the riot was a symptom of the lack of ``mutual confidence'' between citizens and the police. Royal, who advocates boot camps for unruly teenagers, rejected claims she's soft on crime.

``I defend a fair order,'' Royal said at a rally in Tours on March 28. ``A fair order is when the same rules apply to all, whether small or powerful.''

`2002 Situation'

In 2002, President Jacques Chirac was re-elected on a pledge to fight crime, an issue which Lionel Jospin, the Socialist candidate at the time, admitted to have underestimated. Le Pen unexpectedly made it to the run-offs, leapfrogging Jospin to finish second.

``It's surprising to be back in the 2002 situation,'' Reynie of the Institute of Political Studies said. ``People will confuse crime, immigration and youth, which is risky because no- one knows who will come out of the box.''

The campaign has so far focused largely on voters' preoccupation with the country's 8.4 percent jobless rate, poverty, education, pensions and rising rents and diminishing purchasing power. Crime and immigration rank sixth and seventh among voters' concern, a BVA poll published March 29 showed. The poll was held March 26 and 27, before the Gare du Nord riots.

`Fed Up'

``We're hearing a lot of people who are fed up, especially since the Gare du Nord incident,'' Regis de la Croix-Vaubois, a National Front executive from the rural Burgundy region, said in an interview today. `` Since Wednesday, everybody talks exclusively about it. We're feeling there's a good backdrop.''

Sarkozy, who quit as interior minister two days before the violence broke out, has been quick to strike back at the Socialists for their initial reaction.

``Authority is on our side, frauds, riots are on the other side,'' Sarkozy said on March 28 at a campaign rally in Lille, Northern France.

Thirteen people were arrested after the attempt to check tickets in the subway turned violent. The fracas began after the police held a ticket-less man they said was in France illegally.

``It refocuses security at the center of the debate,'' Patrick Devedjian, an adviser to Sarkozy, said. ``It helps those who bring solutions for security. It doesn't help the left.''

Sarkozy Ahead

If Sarkozy were elected president, there would be fewer of these types of incidents, according to 39 percent of the 1,008 people polled over the past two days by OpinionWay for Le Figaro and LCI. Thirty-eight percent said that about Le Pen and 17 percent about Royal. The Paris-based polling company surveyed a sample of the voting population on the Internet.

``Sarkozy is seen as the most competent on security, even if his achievements'' at the ministry ``don't seem ideal,'' said CSA's Levy.

Francois Bayrou, a self-described centrist, dropped 1.5 points in the CSA poll. He would get 19.5 percent of the first- round vote, CSA said. CSA, which polled 922 registered voters for Le Parisien newspaper and i-Television by telephone, didn't give a margin of error.

To contact the reporter on this story: Francois de Beaupuy in Paris at fdebeaupuy@bloomberg.net .


source: bloomberg.com

[Umengus]

clearly a very important moment in the campaign. Sarkozy was not in a good shape but with these riots, he is renforced and the dynamic is for him because he is judged better on crime than Royal or others. It's good also for Le Pen.

I tought that Sarkozy would reserve his better weapon (crime) in the end of the campaign. no mistake.

PS: the assimilation Criminals-Citizens by royal is disgusting.