French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Umengus]

In fact, Sarkozy is at the right of Le Pen on insecurity. Interesting to see if FN voters have the same opinion.

[Colin]

"We want to help you get out of these suburban ghettos where French politicians have parked you . . . only to call you scum later," Mr. Le Pen said, reading from prepared remarks to a small audience of locals and two busloads of journalists.

lol.

LOL, yes he would get them out of there by deporting them. I guess that would be getting them out of the ghettos.

[Bono]

A question to those from the trenches:
What are Le Pen's economic policies. You Umengus say they're Reganian. Can you elaborate on that. What does he specifically propose?

[minionofmidas]

all polling institutes give Le Pen at a level never polled before.

Which means one of two things; either Le Pen is doing better than he has before or that (for whatever reason) there's less shame in admitting to voting for Le Pen than there has been previously.

Impossible to respond for now (but for me, option 1). Answer 22/04.

Very probably a mix of both, actually.

[Umengus]

A question to those from the trenches:
What are Le Pen's economic policies. You Umengus say they're Reganian. Can you elaborate on that. What does he specifically propose?

http://www.lepen2007.fr/blog/index.php?budget

in french of course.

[Umengus]

all polling institutes give Le Pen at a level never polled before.

Which means one of two things; either Le Pen is doing better than he has before or that (for whatever reason) there's less shame in admitting to voting for Le Pen than there has been previously.

Impossible to respond for now (but for me, option 1). Answer 22/04.

Very probably a mix of both, actually.

The problem is always the same for pollsters: the result of Le Pen before correction (not sure but I think that it's +- 6%) is underestimated. it's sure. Question: how to correct that? black box of course. I remember that for a same moment, a poll institute gave 17% to le Pen and another 10%. Some people say to vote for Sarkozy but in fact they will vote Le Pen. Same for bayrou. ...

For these reason, polls about le pen are too subjective. I prefer a structural analyse.

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

05-06/04

Schivardi: 0,5%
Laguiller: 2% (=)
Besancenot: 4,5% (-0,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (+0,5)
Bové: 2% (=)

Voynet: 1,5% (=)
Royal: 22% (-1)

Bayrou: 19% (-1)
Nihous: 1,5% (=)

Sarkozy: 29,5% (+2)

De Villiers: 1% (-0,5)

Le Pen: 14% (=)

Did not say: 2% (-2)

Royal: 46% (-2)
Sarkozy: 54% (+2)

did not say: 5% (=)

[Gustaf]

Bono, I seem to recall that Le Pen is protectionist to a great degree. But one has to remember that parties like the FN usually are populist, in the truest sense of the word, when it comes to economy; in other words, they'll say whatever they think maximises their chances of being elected.

[Bono]

A question to those from the trenches:
What are Le Pen's economic policies. You Umengus say they're Reganian. Can you elaborate on that. What does he specifically propose?

http://www.lepen2007.fr/blog/index.php?budget

in french of course.

Thanks. My French is very rusty--it doesn't help that I never learned it properly (French class was basically just conjugate verbs; God, how I hate the passé composé) to begin with, but I think I can scrap with reading this.

[Bono]

Bono, I seem to recall that Le Pen is protectionist to a great degree. But one has to remember that parties like the FN usually are populist, in the truest sense of the word, when it comes to economy; in other words, they'll say whatever they think maximises their chances of being elected.

Right, I knew he's protectionist in regards to foreign trade, but some people, like Pat Buchanan, are protectionist in regards to foreign trade yet support free market policies domestically. I'm wondering if Le Pen is one of those, ie more of a paleo-conservative, or an economic populist.

[Bono]

A question to those from the trenches:
What are Le Pen's economic policies. You Umengus say they're Reganian. Can you elaborate on that. What does he specifically propose?

http://www.lepen2007.fr/blog/index.php?budget

in french of course.

Thanks. My French is very rusty--it doesn't help that I never learned it properly (French class was basically just conjugate verbs; God, how I hate the passé composé) to begin with, but I think I can scrap with reading this.

Just read it. His tax policy is pretty good, but his monetary policy of "full employment" instead of inflation control is horrendous.
What does he propose regarding health care, social security, welfare and education? I seem to remember something about school vouchers...

[Michael Z]

It seems like so far neither Sarkozy and Royal have exactly set the election alight (though Sarkozy seems to be very comparable to Thatcher or GW Bush in that people either love or hate him). I still think Sarkozy will win, but he's going to be a heck of a polarising President and will probably do France more harm than good in the long run.

[Bono]

It seems like so far neither Sarkozy and Royal have exactly set the election alight (though Sarkozy seems to be very comparable to Thatcher or GW Bush in that people either love or hate him). I still think Sarkozy will win, but he's going to be a heck of a polarising President and will probably do France more harm than good in the long run.

Of course, you also think Thatcher did more harm than good.

[Umengus]

LH poll

06-07/04

Schivardi: 0,5% (+0,5)
Laguiller: 1,5% (+0,5)
Besancenot: 4% (-1)
Bové: 2% (=)
Buffet: 2,5% (-0,5)

Voynet: 2% (+1)
Royal: 24% (-2)

Bayrou: 18% (=)
Nihous: 1% (=)

Sarkozy: 28% (-1)

De Villiers: 1,5% (+0,5)

Le Pen: 15% (+2)

undecided: 47% (-6)

Royal: 48% (-1)
Sarkozy: 52% (+1)

[Verily]

It seems like so far neither Sarkozy and Royal have exactly set the election alight (though Sarkozy seems to be very comparable to Thatcher or GW Bush in that people either love or hate him). I still think Sarkozy will win, but he's going to be a heck of a polarising President and will probably do France more harm than good in the long run.

Of course, you also think Thatcher did more harm than good.

There's a good reason the UK was an economic disaster at the end of the 1980s.

[Keystone Phil]

I can't believe that nearly half of the electorate is still undecided. Is this common?

Also, what is this about the campaign "officially" starting today (a little under two weeks before voting begins)?

[Colin]

I can't believe that nearly half of the electorate is still undecided. Is this common?

They aren't truely undecided. France has a long tradition of people abstaining from mentioning their preference in an election to pollsters. That's why you always see such large numbers who abstained from answering the question. It seems that in this poll they included those who did state that they were undecided.

[Hash]

First Round in 12 days.

My familiy is voting at the embassy in Riyadh.

[Colin]

First Round in 12 days.

My familiy is voting at the embassy in Riyadh.

Did you live in France before moving to Saudi Arabia?

[StateBoiler]

I can't believe that nearly half of the electorate is still undecided. Is this common?

They aren't truely undecided. France has a long tradition of people abstaining from mentioning their preference in an election to pollsters. That's why you always see such large numbers who abstained from answering the question. It seems that in this poll they included those who did state that they were undecided.

As opposed to the American tradition, which is hanging up the phone on instinct. Did that for 2 probing "Newt Gingrich for President" phone calls I received last year.

Question. Based upon the French election system, if Bayrou makes the second round, the smart money says he pretty much has the election won right? Cause if he made the second round with Sarkozy, then all the Royal voters would vote Bayrou over Sarkozy right? (And vice versa, Sarkozy voters would rather have Bayrou over Royal).

[The Man From G.O.P.]

It seems like so far neither Sarkozy and Royal have exactly set the election alight (though Sarkozy seems to be very comparable to Thatcher or GW Bush in that people either love or hate him). I still think Sarkozy will win, but he's going to be a heck of a polarising President and will probably do France more harm than good in the long run.

Of course, you also think Thatcher did more harm than good.

There's a good reason the UK was an economic disaster at the end of the 1980s.

And your UK party is the biggest political joke since..... well since something that happened along time ago....

[Verily]

It seems like so far neither Sarkozy and Royal have exactly set the election alight (though Sarkozy seems to be very comparable to Thatcher or GW Bush in that people either love or hate him). I still think Sarkozy will win, but he's going to be a heck of a polarising President and will probably do France more harm than good in the long run.

Of course, you also think Thatcher did more harm than good.

There's a good reason the UK was an economic disaster at the end of the 1980s.

And your UK party is the biggest political joke since..... well since something that happened along time ago....

I don't see why the Liberal Democrats are a joke. Just because they're a third party? Or is it because they're a relatively successful third party? Or because you're just trolling?

[Umengus]

I can't believe that nearly half of the electorate is still undecided. Is this common?

Also, what is this about the campaign "officially" starting today (a little under two weeks before voting begins)?

there are 12 candidates. and you can easily hesitate between Besancenot or Laguiller, Bayrou or Royal,...

I don't think that this level of undecision was so high for the referendum in 2005 but there were only 2 options...

[Umengus]

The bva pollster has said today that in april 2002, the result of the last bva poll of le pen without correction was 6,9%. Today, 2 weeks begore the election, his result is 6%.

[Hash]

16 you mean?