French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Umengus]

Are there any polls about this matchup ?

yes but completely irrelevant for now.  the last ipsos poll gave 51%-49% for Sarkozy but the last ifop poll gave, in terms of preference, 55%-42% for Royal.

[Umengus]

So, it looks like a Royal-Sarkozy Election ?

indeed. 2 very good candidates. For now. But campaign will be very very interessant and decisive.

[Tender Branson]

So, it looks like a Royal-Sarkozy Election ?

Are there any polls about this matchup ?

yes but completely irrelevant for now.  the last ipsos poll gave 51%-49% for Sarkozy but the last ifop poll gave, in terms of preference, 55%-42% for Royal.

Why irrelevant ? Both are leading with big margins in their parties. It looks Royal has a good chance to win this and we get another woman on top of a European country.

[Tender Branson]

I just read the Wiki article about Segolene Royal and I find her quite OK. Would definitely be a good president i think. Just my opinion but i don´t know much else about her and i don´t know what the French say about her.

[Umengus]

So, it looks like a Royal-Sarkozy Election ?

Are there any polls about this matchup ?

yes but completely irrelevant for now.  the last ipsos poll gave 51%-49% for Sarkozy but the last ifop poll gave, in terms of preference, 55%-42% for Royal.

Why irrelevant ? Both are leading with big margins in their parties. It looks Royal has a good chance to win this and we get another woman on top of a European country.

I wanted to say that polls for second run were irrelevant. Too early.

[© tweed]

Are the LCR and the PCF running candidates? 

[Colin]

What is Le Pen polling right now and that other far right guy?

[Umengus]

Are the LCR and the PCF running candidates? 

Yes:

PCF (communist): Buffet (3%)
LCR (extr left): Besancenot: 5%
LO (extr left): Laguiller: 5%

Question is to know if there will be only one candidate for this 3 parties. Each candidate want to be this candidate...

[Umengus]

What is Le Pen polling right now and that other far right guy?

Le Pen at 12-13% for now. De Villiers at 3-5%. megret should support Le Pen. And Sarkozy (far right for some people) at 32-37%.

[Umengus]

CSA poll

29-30/08, 833

Laguiller: 3%
Besancenot: 5%
Buffet: 3%

Voynet: 2%

Royal: 28%

Bayrou: 8%
Le page (center-right & green): 2%

Sarkozy: 29%

De Villiers:5%
Le Pen: 15%

Turnout: 67%

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll (scocial)

25/08-02/09, 478 socialists voters (but the voters will be the socialist militants)

last ipsos poll: 18-26/08

Royal: 52% (-5)
Jospin: 17% (+2)
DSK: 14% (+3)
Lang: 10% (+1)
Fabius: 5% (=)
Hollande: 2% (-1)

9% have not expressed.

[Umengus]

Sofres poll (Presid)

04-05 sept, 1000

(last sofres poll: 17 jul)

Laguiller: 3% (-1)
Besancenot: 3,5% (-0,5)
Buffet: 3% (=)

Voynet: 1,5% (=)

Royal: 34% (+2)

Bayrou: 7% (+1)

Sarkozy: 36% (+1)

De Villiers: 2% (-1)

Le Pen: 10% (-1,5)

Did not express: 18% (-3)


Typical a pre-campaign poll. See the incoherence with the csa poll...

[Umengus]

Ifop poll (social)

31 aug-08 sept, 621 socialist voters (last ifop poll: june)

Royal: 51% (+1)
Jospin: 15% (+1)
DSK: 10% (+2)
Lang: 7% (-2)
Kouchner: 5% (-1)
Aubry: 4% (+1)
Fabius: 3% (=)
Hollande: 3% (=)

[Umengus]

Ipsos Poll (soc)

08-09 sept, 530 (last ipsos poll: 25 aug-02 sept)

Royal: 56% (+4)
Jospin: 16% (-1)
DSK: 12% (-2)
Lang: 10%
Fabius: 3% (-2)
Hollande: 3% (+1)

6% did not express

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll (Pres)

08-09 sept, 954

Laguiller: 4% (=)
Besancenot: 4% (-1)
Buffet: 3% (+2)
Bove: 2% (-1)

Voynet: 2% (=)

Royal: 27% (-1)

Bayrou: 6% (=)

Sarkozy: 36% (-1)

De Villiers: 4% (+2)

Le Pen: 11% (=)


16% did not express

Second turn:

Royal: 48% (-1)
Sarkozy: 52% (+1)

13% did not express

 

[WMS]

I have to say, Royal and Sarkozy don't make me want to hit my head against a wall, so perhaps the French are finally going to get decent leaders.

[Umengus]

Jospin quits presidential race with attack on Royal

source: http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article1771856.ece

[Frodo]

Presidential Campaign Heats Up In France;
Poll Leader Joins Heavyweight Field In Socialist Party

By Laure Bretton
Reuters
Saturday, September 30, 2006;
Page A13

VITROLLES, France, Sept. 29 -- Segolene Royal confirmed Friday that she wants to become the Socialist candidate in the 2007 French presidential election, officially entering a race against a string of party heavyweights.

Royal, 53, heads opinion polls of voters to lead the Socialist Party into the election, but it is up to its 200,000 members to select the candidate in November, with four or five candidates likely to compete for the nomination.

"Yes, I agree to take on this mission of conquest for France and the challenges coming with it," Royal said in a campaign speech in the southern town of Vitrolles, getting loud applause.

Her comments came shortly after former finance minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn said he would run. Ex-prime minister Laurent Fabius and former culture minister Jack Lang are to announce their candidacies before an Oct. 3 deadline.

Party leader Francois Hollande, who lives with Royal, has not ruled out running.

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

29-30 sept, 245 socialists

Royal: 68% (+14)
DSK: 23% (+12)
Fabius: 9% (+6)

[AuH2O]

Viva Le Pen

[Umengus]

CSA poll

17-18 oct 2006, 838
last csa poll: sept 06


Laguiller:4 (-)
Besancenot: 4 (-1)
Buffet:3 (=)

Voynet: 2 (-1)

Royal: 32 (+1)

Bayrou: 7 (+1)

Sarkozy: 31 (+1)

De Villiers: 2 (-1)

Le Pen: 15 (=)

Turnout: 68% (+1)

[Colin]

CSA poll

17-18 oct 2006, 838
last csa poll: sept 06


Laguiller:4 (-)
Besancenot: 4 (-1)
Buffet:3 (=)

Voynet: 2 (-1)

Royal: 32 (+1)

Bayrou: 7 (+1)

Sarkozy: 31 (+1)

De Villiers: 2 (-1)

Le Pen: 15 (=)

Turnout: 68% (+1)

Le Pen's up to 15% I see. Last time I checked he was at 12% or so.

ANy second round data?

[Umengus]

Le Pen's up to 15% I see. Last time I checked he was at 12% or so.

ANy second round data?

csa poll

Royal: 52% (=)
Sarkozy: 48% (=)

CSA has given Le Pen at 15% for 3 polls. Others polls institutes give him around 12%. But RG ("renseignement généraux", police services who have the official mission to inform government) give Le Pen at 20%-22%. Not a surprise when the Sarkozy policy against the crime seems to be a failure. Insecurity and immigration will be the strongest issues during the campaign.

[Umengus]

Tomorrow, there will happen the socialist primary to pick the candidate who will represent the socialist party at the presidential election.

218 000 militants
4000 polling station
good turnout predicted
end of vote: 10 pm

There are no polls about this race because it's impossible for pollsters to ask question to militants. But there are (were) polls on socialist voters, a greater population. On EU referendum in 2005, it was the same situation and polls were correct.

Consequently, (great) suprise(s) is possible.

My prediction:

Royal: 45%-60%
DSK: 25%-35%
Fabius: 15%-25%

 

[afleitch]

Royal wins.