Indonesian presidential election

[jaichind]

Markets are going to fall if Prabowo wins.  Most likely he will not.  On the other hand who ever wins the loser will most likely contest the results.

[jaichind]

Just as important as to who wins is the alliance configuration in the Indonesian Parliament.  Prabowo leads seven-party pact called a "permanent coalition" including Gerindra, Golkar, Democratic Party, Crescent Star Party and three Islamic parties.  Together these parties control 353 of 560 seats in the lower house.  But this alliance is based on the assumption that Prabowo will win.  There are signs that Golkar with 91 seats might defect in part of in whole over to Jokowi if case Jokowi wins.  There are also signs that the Demokrat party of outgoing president Yudhoyo with 61 seats might do the same.  Unofficial early seems to indicate that Jokowi is ahead by 5.6% and if this translates into a victory Jokowi could then pull off a government coalition.  This scenario seems still the most likely scenario.

[jaichind]

 Kawalpemilu.org which tracks actual results from polling stations that are then uploaded to the Elections Commissions site seems to indicate that Jokowi has 52.8% vs Prabowo 47.1% so far.

[jaichind]

What's the llikelihood of political violence in the case of a disputed result.

I haven't seen much discussion of that in the media, but the only Indonesian I know was seriously concerned about the possibility when I spoke with him about the election a couple of months ago.

I guess the reason why there is fear of violence has to do with the way the campaign has been waged.  Jokowi had a large lead but the race narrowed as Prabowo's allies pushed the line that Jokowi is a crypto-Christian and a crypto-Chinese, both unlikely to be true.  But I guess for people that took these whisper campaign claims seriously the thought of a Christian and Chinese being president could be troubling and in turn leads to violence in case Jokowi wins, as it seems likely.

[jaichind]

The current count according to Kawalpemilu.org is

Jokowi       52.9%      59,088,934 votes
Prabowo    47.1%     52.591.686 votes

This is with
406,939 out of 472,672 precincts reporting.

Given how many votes has been counted it seems that Jokowi has this locked up.

[jaichind]

The current count according to Kawalpemilu.org is

Jokowi       52.8%     65,471,519 votes
Prabowo    47.2%     58,505,594 votes

This is with
452,328 out of 472,672 precincts reporting.

The vote share barely budged since yesterday.

[jaichind]

The current count according to Kawalpemilu.org is

Jokowi       52.8%     67,067,675 votes
Prabowo    47.2%    59,944,920 votes

This is with
460,466 out of 472,672 precincts reporting.

One thing that is interesting is that even though Jokowi is the governor of Jakarta, he only got 53.1 of the vote there.  He got massive margins in Central Java where he was the mayor of a city called Surakarta by winning there with 66.6% of the vote.  In fact he won Central Java by over 6.4 million votes which is almost the entire size of his lead over Prabowo.  This means if it was not Central Java this election would be a virtual tie.

[jaichind]

Prabowo goes sore-loser and withdraws from the process and aims to challenge the election at the highest court:

Well, he kind of backed himself into a corner by claiming the entire process that he was ahead.  So when the results come out with him losing he will have been seen as a liar.  So to not lose consistency he has to claim the process to be tainted beyond repair when the results comes out.