Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Poirot]

More retirements: Breton and Malavoy.

I haven't heard about Daniel Breton. Maybe you mean Daniel Ratthé (Blainville).

He was sitting as independent after being booted from CAQ caucus. He was PQ before switching to CAQ.

Out of the four CAQ ridings in the northern Montreal surburbs from last election, it means only Legault is running again.

[Poirot]

It will be interesting to hear his motivation. If he concentrates on economic development only or also talks about sovereignty and work to show economic viability.

Unions (and probably journalists) don't like him because of long lock outs at his newspapers. I don't know if PQ could lose support from hard pro-union type. If their goal is sovereignty it would help to bring the more pro-business nationalist.

I've read in newsaper that Quebec City talk radio was pushing for Anybody but Marois (telling to vote PLQ to stop PQ). PKP is probably popular with the same radio hosts because he would be the owner of the hockey team if they get one from the NHL. It will probably not change their anti-PQ rhetoric.    

[Poirot]

Radio-Canada is releasing a poll tonight. The number published so far is about referendum, 39% would vote yes, 61% no.

[Poirot]

A Quebec city area poll shows the PLQ opening a 7 point lead. Don't have the exact numbers, results will be made public tomorrow.

I don't know if it's Péladeau's entrance and greater fear of a referendum, a continuation of the anti-PQ campaign by radio stations, or the mayor speaking against CAQ not wanting to finance an indoor skating oval and other projects.

I imagine province wide PLQ could be in the lead in voting intentions with a result like this.

[Poirot]

I was typing the Quebec city Léger poll (too late). Here is the link.

http://www.fm93.com/regional/nouvelles/sondage-exclusif-les-liberaux-en-avance-de-7-dans--306020.html

[Poirot]

1. A sliver of leftwing PQ voters disgusted by the fact that Peladeau is a rightwing fanatic will shift to Quebec Solidaire...it may not give QS any additional seats but just a couple of percentage points here and there can cost the PQ some marginal seats.

2. By making such a ringing speech in favour of complete independence for Quebec and so much media speculation on another referendum - all of a sudden the election is no longer about the charter, its no longer about the economy. Its now all about "do you want another referendum?" and "Do you want Quebec to become and independent country?"...this is very dangerous ground for the PQ - they cannot win an election just with the votes of out and out separatists. The CAQ party voters are according to polls over 80% NON voters in a hypothetical referendum and are also way more likely to have the Liberals as tbheir second choice than the PQ...if the election is all about sovereignty i think the CAQ vote will meltdown and go mostly to the Liberals.

These two ingredients could add up to a PLQ win. You heard it here.

1. perhaps an additional seat with Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques. It was probably QS next target anyway. Radio-Canada and TVA are in the riding so there could be some media workers unhappy with PKP's presence. At city level Projet Montréal did well here.

2. I think I will tune out. It has become a debate on if Péladeau should sell his company's shares and a possible future referendum. I don't know if it will last three weeks. Usually the PLQ plays the referendum threat card in the last week of campaign. Supposedly issues important to people are economy and health care.   

[Poirot]

I've said next target because when I look at last election results QS received roughly 25% vote share behind the leader at 35%. In Laurier-Dorion they would have to surpass the Liberals (so get a result of over 35% unless they convert Liberals).

In Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques it's a race between QS and PQ so if QS can make PQ votes switch the gap with first place can close more quickly. (would be possible to win with 31%)

[Poirot]

I took the mother tongue statistics in ridings (didn't know if it's better or to take language spoken at home). In Laurier-Dorion it's 46% French, 46% other, 6% English. In Sainte-Marie - St-Jacques it's 67% French, 20% other, 12% English.

[Poirot]

I think it's on CPAC, try that.

[Poirot]

I think poll by poll maps are created with the results of votes cast on voting day because for advance voting they use different poll numbers.

If that is the case, could there be some meaningful difference in some poll by poll map ridings. Considering 19% of eligible voters voted before elction day and the total final voter turnout was 71%, that would mean a quarter of votes were cast before elections day.

From Radio-Canada, a list of ridings with a different winner if only votes cast on elections day are considered. The party with more votes on elections day is on the right, the winner of the election is at left with the riding name.
   
http://ici.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2014/2014/05/20/001-vote-anticipation-chiffres-directeur-general-elections.shtml

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For example, the Liberal party won Portneuf by 1059 votes but they received less votes than CAQ on election day; they won based on the about 2000 lead on votes cast before election day.

http://infoportneuf.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=6369:michel-matte-lemporte-au-vote-par-anticipation&catid=18:actualites&Itemid=9

In La Prairie the Liberal candidate won the riding by 435 votes. CAQ got 924 more votes than Lib on election day but Lib got 1359 more votes than CAQ in advance voting (CAQ finished third in advance voting).
http://www.lereflet.qc.ca/2014/05/26/le-7-avril-la-caq-a-gagne-dans-la-prairie-et-sanguinet

Are poll by poll maps made with numbers showing CAQ with 924 more votes even if they lost. Would the maps look a bit different in colours.