My father is shaky. He has decided "it might be better for the country if Trump won" but voting for him is a bridge too far. He has voted Democratic since 1988.
I work in a GOP office and Biden probably won 45% here in 2020. He will be lucky to get 15% in 2024. And this is fairly representive of those who are Republicans for ideological/policy reasons rather than vibes but felt Trump personally was unfit.
Biden has offered them 0. Nada. He has simultaneously run the most partisan administration in American history when it comes to appointments/governance, while also running the most leftwing.
Every single Republican and Conservative I know(and I am not counting people who agree with MSNBC on everything- ie pro-choice, Ukraine flags, pro trans) but are currently active politically, despises Biden and this administration. They don't dislike it. They aren't disappointed. They despise it, and believe the country may not survive it.
Now for those who felt Trump was unfit and January 6th along with the two months preceding it were a traumatic experience this presents a quandary. But at the moment this group, which lent Biden their votes in 2020 and in some cases voted Democin 2022 is leaning towards Trump. And for most it's Trump or a write-in. They will never vote for Biden again.
That's DC Republican circles + tech for you though. So maybe not Biden's target swing voters.