Hillary 2016
Marienne Boudreau
Rookie
Posts: 57
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« on: August 01, 2009, 02:22:15 AM » |
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The youngest voters from 2004-2008
State 2004 Margin 2008 Margin Swing
The Mid-Atlantic
PA 60-39 Kerry 66-34 Obama D + 6 DE 54-45 Kerry 71-25 Obama D + 17 NY 72-25 Kerry 76-21 Obama D + 4 NJ 64-35 Kerry 67-32 Obama D + 3 MD 62-35 Kerry 70-26 Obama D + 8 DC 90-8 Kerry 95-5 Obama D + 5
New England
CT 70-29 Kerry 79-18 Obama D + 9 ME 50-48 Bush 67-30 Obama D + 19 NH 57-43 Kerry 61-37 Obama D + 4 VT 71-27 Kerry 81-18 Obama D + 10 MA 72-26 Kerry 78-20 Obama D + 6 RI 68-30 Kerry 68-25 Obama D + 0
The Midwest
OH 56-42 Kerry 61-38 Obama D + 5 IN 52-47 Bush 63-35 Obama D + 16 MO 51-48 Kerry 59-39 Obama D + 8 IA 53-46 Kerry 63-34 Obama D + 10 MI 55-43 Kerry 68-29 Obama D + 13 MN 57-41 Kerry 66-32 Obama D + 9 WI 57-41 Kerry 64-35 Obama D + 7 IL 64-35 Kerry 71-27 Obama D + 7
The Coastal South
VA 54-46 Kerry 63-34 Obama D + 9 NC 56-43 Kerry 74-26 Obama D + 18 SC 51-48 Bush 57-42 Obama D + 9 GA 52-47 Bush 51-48 McCain D + 1 FL 58-41 Kerry 61-37 Obama D + 3
The Deep and Inland South
AL 57-41 Bush 51-49 Obama D + 10 MS 63-37 Kerry 56-43 Obama R + 6 TN 53-46 Bush 59-40 Obama D + 13 KY 54-45 Bush 51-48 Obama D + 6 WV 52-48 Bush 50-50 Tie D + 2 AR 51-47 Bush 49-49 Tie D + 2 LA 53-45 Bush 49-48 McCain D + 4 (but won 18-24 by 53-45) TX 59-41 Bush 54-45 Obama D + 13
The Plains States
KS 55-44 Bush 51-47 Obama D + 7 ND 68-32 Bush 51-47 Obama D + 19 SD 55-43 Bush 50-48 Obama D + 7 NE 60-38 Bush 54-43 Obama D + 16 OK 62-38 Bush 60-40 McCain D + 2
The Rockies and the Southwest
AZ 50-48 Bush 52-48 Obama D + 4 NV 56-42 Kerry 70-29 Obama D + 14 NM 50-49 Bush 77-21 Obama D + 27 CO 51-47 Kerry No result N/A UT 77-18 Bush 62-33 McCain D + 15 WY 72-25 Bush 63-35 McCain D + 10 MT 52-43 Bush 61-37 Obama D + 18 ID 65-35 Bush 56-42 McCain D + 7
The West
CA 58-39 Kerry 76-23 Obama D + 18 (80% of 18-24 for Obama) OR 62-37 Kerry No result N/A WA 50-47 Kerry No result N/A AK 59-37 Bush 61-37 Bush R + 2 HI 61-39 Kerry 82-18 Obama D + 21
Findings:
For some very strange reason, the exit polls show that in Mississippi, young voters became more Republican. This doesn't make sense since Obama was able to still win young voters, but Kerry, the northeastern "elitist liberal", actually won 63% of these voters. I had asked a young, black college professor from MS about that and she said the 63% could be because of a number of reasons: (1) young voters in Mississippi opposed the Iraq War on religious grounds, (2) young voters in Mississippi are much more mixed racially than the older generation which is whiter, (3) even in Mississippi, young voters are more progressive.
I'm guessing that Colorado had something similar to most of the other states, which was a 60+ majority for Barack.
Barack Obama would have lost Indiana and North Carolina without 18-24 voters.
North Carolina and Georgia are going to be VERY different states in the future.
Take a look at that swing in North Carolina - 74% of all voters 18-29 in North Carolina supported Barack.
So if you make believe 18-29 year olds made up all of the electorate, you would have had the media call 2004 a huge Democratic landslide, and 2008 would have been an absolute blowout.
Even the states that Bush would have won would have been by much weaker majorities that dwarf in comparison to his big wins in the 2004 red states (for example, ruby red Kansas, a state that went for Bush with 62% would have only gone to him by 55%). In 2008, Kansas would have become a blue state.
The 2008 election would have been a DISASTER for John McCain. He would have even lost his home state of Arizona by 4 points (and 18-24 year olds in AZ by 20 points).
And this is big: TEXAS, the mother of red states, goes bright blue.
Based on this, we can try to predict what the new realignment will be in the future if these voters continue this pattern. Remember, voting twice or three times for the same party makes you more likely to keep voting that way. Look at what the late 70s and 80s did for the young people - they saw Ronald Reagan and the Republicans as stronger and today they vote Republican in large numbers.
The Bluest States in 2008 for .young voters were: North Carolina (74% Democratic), Massachusetts (78% Dem), New York (76% Dem), Connecticut (79% Dem), New Mexico (77% Dem), California (76% Dem), Nevada (70% Dem), Maryland (70%), Delaware (71%), Illinois (71%), and perhaps Washington, Oregon, and Colorado.
Then you had a lot of really blue states but in the 60s range: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Unfortunately I don't know how to post a map...I still don't understand how you all do the red-blue switch, it's so confusing!!! I know the creator of this forum remembers 1984's sea of Reagan blue, but all I can remember is that sea of Bush red in 2004.
ANYWAY, Lets discuss how all this makes a difference, or does it? Will these Obama supermajorities change the electoral map of the 2020's, 30's, and 40's? Will there be another voter realignment, with states like Oklahoma and Utah being very out of touch with the rest of the country?!?
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