PA-Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Obama leads by 7%

[Keystone Phil]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living up to your exceptional standards.

[Keystone Phil]

Pennsylvania will go to Obama. Period.

Phil, retort? 

Naso knows how I feel. His "analysis" is even more assinine than those of the Obama fanatics.

"There are too many stubborn steel town Democrats!"

[Keystone Phil]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living u pto your exceptional standards.

Sound logic = polls
Sound logic != anecdotal evidence

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my anecdotal evidence isn't "I ran into two people on the street and they said they want McCain. Oh, they're Dems, too, so McCain will definitely win."

I was going around my precinct today to try to get some McCain - Palin signs up on lawns. I'll note that I was only given about twenty signs (reserved for me) because they were flying out of the office. Requests like you wouldn't believe. Anyway, I was going around and saw the former Democratic committeeman outside. I said hello and all and asked him if there was any chance that McCain could get his support (which I was expecting). He looked around and called me over. He told me he couldn't put up a sign because he's "involved politically" (he is a union official) but McCain was definitely getting his vote. He was very excited to see me going around and encouraged me to keep at it. He told me that he's personally working to get his neighbors to support McCain and to get signs up.

It was very encouraging. You guys will continue to brush it off as nothing but I know that these types (especially this guy who usually has an organization at the polls when he has a candidate he really cares about) not going for Obama means something.

[Keystone Phil]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living u pto your exceptional standards.

Sound logic = polls
Sound logic != anecdotal evidence

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my anecdotal evidence isn't "I ran into two people on the street and they said they want McCain. Oh, they're Dems, too, so McCain will definitely win."

I was going around my precinct today to try to get some McCain - Palin signs up on lawns. I'll note that I was only given about twenty signs (reserved for me) because they were flying out of the office. Requests like you wouldn't believe. Anyway, I was going around and saw the former Democratic committeeman outside. I said hello and all and asked him if there was any chance that McCain could get his support (which I was expecting). He looked around and called me over. He told me he couldn't put up a sign because he's "involved politically" (he is a union official) but McCain was definitely getting his vote. He was very excited to see me going around and encouraged me to keep at it. He told me that he's personally working to get his neighbors to support McCain and to get signs up.

It was very encouraging. You guys will continue to brush it off as nothing but I know that these types (especially this guy who usually has an organization at the polls when he has a candidate he really cares about) not going for Obama means something.

Hey Phil what's your prediction for Bucks County, I know you know that area better than most on here, mind you that Bucks was a very accurate bellweather for the whole state in the 2000 and 2004 presidential election

Remember Obama got thumped against Hillary  in the primary in Bucks he got a measly 37.39% of the vote.

If Mccain can win Bucks by more than 2% points I think he takes the state

As of now, McCain isn't winning Bucks. I think there is a great chance that that will change though. He doesn't need to win the county though. A slight improvement on Bush's numbers would be a huge help and that's very possible here.

[Keystone Phil]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living u pto your exceptional standards.

Sound logic = polls
Sound logic != anecdotal evidence

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my anecdotal evidence isn't "I ran into two people on the street and they said they want McCain. Oh, they're Dems, too, so McCain will definitely win."

I was going around my precinct today to try to get some McCain - Palin signs up on lawns. I'll note that I was only given about twenty signs (reserved for me) because they were flying out of the office. Requests like you wouldn't believe. Anyway, I was going around and saw the former Democratic committeeman outside. I said hello and all and asked him if there was any chance that McCain could get his support (which I was expecting). He looked around and called me over. He told me he couldn't put up a sign because he's "involved politically" (he is a union official) but McCain was definitely getting his vote. He was very excited to see me going around and encouraged me to keep at it. He told me that he's personally working to get his neighbors to support McCain and to get signs up.

It was very encouraging. You guys will continue to brush it off as nothing but I know that these types (especially this guy who usually has an organization at the polls when he has a candidate he really cares about) not going for Obama means something.

My analysis isn't based on anecdotes - look, here's an anecdote to prove it

As I said, hard head, it's not based on talking to Joe Average. These are people involved in the process.

Yeah, and Santorum was very close to winning in PA.

I do think, however, that the results in PA will be close but Obama will win by a small margin.

As I said before, this doesn't even come close to comparing to that race. I love how you even admit that by saying that Obama will win by a "small margin" but still had to throw a jab.

[Keystone Phil]

But you're still claiming that PA doesn't like Obama when the last two polls say +8 and +7 for him.

I'm predicting what will happen on November 4th, not today or tomorrow.

[Keystone Phil]

But you're still claiming that PA doesn't like Obama when the last two polls say +8 and +7 for him.

I'm predicting what will happen on November 4th, not today or tomorrow.

So you're saying that all these disgruntled Dem's around the Philly 'burbs are still telling pollsters they will vote Obama, but will press the McCain button on November 4th? Why would they do that?

Not really the suburbs but the city itself (where I am from). A lot of people have other "obligations." Their unions and such are pushing for Obama. They don't want to vote for a Republican. Please re-read my story above. The man is a leader in one of the unions. You don't think plenty of the rank and file members are feeling the same way? Plenty of local Democratic leaders have backed me up on this. It's made the news.

[Keystone Phil]

So, what do you think the reason is: 1. Is he doing very well elsewhere in PA, and if so where; or 2. are these people you're talking about lieing to pollsters about their voting intentions. Has to be one of the two, yes?

I think his "support" in the polls is just very soft. People are paranoid about admitting that they want the Republican in this race. I guarantee that the man I mentioned above would tell the pollster that he wants Obama. A lot of these voters that I'm talking about are union voters. They know that they must fall in line or risk some serious abuse. They can't always be as open with their support for the Republican when it comes to talking amongst their friends, fellow union members, etc.

[Keystone Phil]

We'll see come election day who was right.

That's what I like to hear. 

Listen, you guys will have four whole years to beat up on me if I'm wrong. Believe me, I'm still getting shit about bad predictions from 2004 and 2006. Just give me the remaining five weeks. 

[Keystone Phil]

I just don't trust Phil to make an honest assessment of Pennsylvania.

So...I'm just lying when I bring up the Dems for McCain?

[Keystone Phil]

No, I don't think you are lying about your "anecdotes." However, it is hard to make an assessment based on what people tell you in the larger scheme of things. I havea lot of friends around me who are Republicans voting for Obama. But, I don't see Obama winning more than 20% of Republicans here in this state.  You just don't have a good track record. Sorry.

In my previous wrong predictions, I never had the argument of the Dem organization not backing their candidate like the way they refuse to strongly back Obama here. It's backed up by analysts that do see the "larger scheme of things" statewide.

[Keystone Phil]

Aahhh, I think I've found evidence of your anecdote Phil...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo


Yep, PA's split.

Dude, I've given my analysis. Don't be insulting (because you have no real arguments) and compare what I say to what is said on FOX. As I said earlier, chill out for five more weeks. If you're so convinced that you're right and I'm wrong then you will have your chance to bust on me for four years. Until then, calm down. Thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

Aahhh, I think I've found evidence of your anecdote Phil...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo


Yep, PA's split.

Dude, I've given my analysis. Don't be insulting (because you have no real arguments) and compare what I say to what is said on FOX. As I said earlier, chill out for five more weeks. If you're so convinced that you're right and I'm wrong then you will have your chance to bust on me for four years. Until then, calm down. Thanks.

Hey, I'm not insulting you, that video's funny. Be flattered, I saw it and thought of you! Lighten up and relax a bit.

I took it as if you were saying that that's the type of evidence that I provide and try to pass off as the truth.

[Keystone Phil]

Jesus H. Christ.

A teenager with a past of hilariously inaccurate predictions spouts his mouth off about McCain taking PA - contrary to a score of polls - on the back of a half dozen alleged democrats who claim they're voting for McCain but are too scared to tell that to a pollster and then gets the hump when people call him on it.

Seriously, why even bother? He's obviously devoid of reality.

Alleged Democrats? Really? These people - Democratic committeepeople, activists, ward leaders - aren't Democrats?

I'm devoid of reality? Yeah? I guess that explains my numerous other correct predictions that never get any play here. It's always more fun in a left wing echo chamber to beat up on the bad predictions of some conservative Republican. "Hilariously inaccurate predictions" = Two bad predictions. I'm sure we can find two bad predictions from a few people.

And just for accuracy's sake, I'm not a teenager.

Finally, you add nothing to this forum. You come here, spew some hack statements and get nasty with those you don't like. You're a worthless troll. Don't like what I say? Fine. Do me a favor and be civil about it.

[Keystone Phil]

Iosif, don't be so aggressively mean.

Phil, I think the consensus is that you make fine predictions for everywhere but PA, where your bias causes your analysis to root for the hometeam

Were my two bad predictions based a great deal on optimism? Yes. However, in both of those races, I never argued that the Democratic nominees were struggling among the traditional white, Catholic, union member base (Casey certainly wasn't going to and Schwartz wasn't struggling to the extent that Obama is). It's different this time but whatever.

[Keystone Phil]

I didn't say your argument was the same every time

Like I said, it's not like Bob Casey had a blue-collar, white worker problem for you to run with, haha. 

And I'm saying that's a major game changer and why my analysis isn't as flawed this time around.