Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.
Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.
If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.
He gets as much as DeSantis.
And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.
Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).
Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.
Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).
With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.
Well, the CBS YouGov Poll has Trump only up 52-47 among Hispanics over Biden. That though is still a 10-Point Shift from the 2020 Exit Polls in FL when Biden won Hispanics over Trump 52-47.
That would make more sense and would align more with a +9 victory.
The most interesting plot among Latinos I am looking at is whether Trump wins a Democratic-leaning constituency, PUERTO RICANS. They have generally back Democrats over the last 15 years or so but they did go for DeSantis & Rubio in 2022. They were pretty mad at Trump in 2020 for his handling of Hurricane Maria. Biden got 72 % of the Puerto Rican Hispanics in 2020. Meanwhile DeSantis won 56 % of Puerto Ricans in 2022 & Senator Rubio 54 %. Astonishing for a Group that gave Biden 72 % of the Vote in 2020. We are talking about a 50-Point shift here. If that happens in November Democrats are DEAD in Florida I can guarantee you that.
For that, i guess we will have to wait till election day. But I suppose a shift will happen some way or the other, because anti-incumbency and Hurricane Maria no longer being relevant.
And good chance, Biden will have a chance to redeem himself because Atlantic Hurricane Season is almost certain but guaranteed to be one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons ever. it doesn't look good. Of course there's still a chance that like 30 hurricanes create but that none would really strike the USA directly. That is still a possibility. And even in a mild season you can have the bad luck of a pretty bad hurricane striking the USA and otherwise not much activity.
Atlantic Ocean and MDR (main development region) is record warm
WAM (West African Monsoon) will be very active.
We will transition into La Nina most likely which favours hurricane development and low shear levels needed to generate hurricanes.
Literally every single metric is pointing in the wrong direction atm there.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1790864490893844649