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May 20, 2024, 04:22:23 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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 1 
 on: Today at 04:22:20 PM 
Started by Burke Bro - Last post by ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
If the loophole is allowed, I don't see how it's not supporting the constitution.
Supporting a Trump third term in any way is unconstitutional.

Also, if Trump is allowed to be president for a third term, do you think that he will ever leave office? Yeah right.

 2 
 on: Today at 04:21:29 PM 
Started by Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon - Last post by West_Midlander
Nay

 3 
 on: Today at 04:18:25 PM 
Started by Meclazine for Israel - Last post by Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
There's huge protests in Tunisia about African migrants trying to get to Europe but then just staying in Tunisia.

In that contet I should mention that the Bourguibist tour guide was an at-least-second-generation Sahelian or Tuareg Tunisian who was an avowed atheist and disapproved of Muslims and Christians equally because "all used African slave labor".

 4 
 on: Today at 04:17:55 PM 
Started by Burke Bro - Last post by Duke of York
If Trump wins and does a good job in his second term then I will gladly support him if he wants a third term. There might be a way around the 22nd Amendment by nominating a puppet Republican nominee and putting Trump in as VP and market the ticket as Trump's 3rd term. Then if they win, the President resigns, and Trump takes power. This would likely have to go to court because the 22nd Amendment talks about being "elected" specifically but not necessarily the office itself.  

If Trump wins and he likely will Republicans will ignore the 22nd amendment and nominate him for a third term if he wants it.

 5 
 on: Today at 04:17:22 PM 
Started by Obama24 - Last post by Hindsight was 2020
Crimea+Donetsk+Luhansk going to Russia and Ukraine joining NATO (or some other defensive agreement that has teeth to ensure this doesn't happen again) is the absolute floor. Ideally of course, Russia leaving entirely and Ukraine joining NATO, but that seems unlikely.

One of the few serious posts here and about what I would say.

Good lord Putin got under you guys's skin with the election interference stuff which is about the only reason I can think of why you're being so intense about this. You wuss out in Afghanistan, want Israel to roll over and just let Hamas take over their country, but then you don't want Ukraine to give up one foot of land even if it means WWII casualties. Some of you are even talking about regime change in Russia which presumably means starting WWIII and invading and hoping it goes better than all the other times in history that's been tried.

As I've said before if this is what it looks like when you're on someone's side in a war than you clearly weren't on the US's side against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre Now kindly go shove it

Well the Taliban committed all kinds of atrocities against civilians and it took significantly less loss of life to stop them than it would for the kind of total victory against Russia that all of you seem to want here. Yet most of you were fine letting them take over Afghanistan, it's not logical so have those two positions in concert, there's just some kind of emotional bias here.
Or Afghanistan was a 20 year, several thousand US troops died, trillion dollar project that ended up being in vain as the local population didn’t care if the Taliban was in charge or not vs Ukraine a 3 year war, no U.S. troop death project for a country that actually wants to fight the enemy. But why worry about details when you can do a fake virtual signal like a douche

 6 
 on: Today at 04:16:57 PM 
Started by GAinDC - Last post by Beet
The less you've been indoctrinated by Mockingbird media, the more likely you are to support Trump.

That's what I was about to say. The more you receive news from centralized establishment sources, one could say soft propaganda, the more pro Biden you are. This is a major advantage for Biden in this election. It's almost impossible for anyone to get elected president in the face of a strong media onslaught.

 7 
 on: Today at 04:16:04 PM 
Started by GAinDC - Last post by Duke of York
is this a general election for this seat?

 8 
 on: Today at 04:14:28 PM 
Started by Tender Branson - Last post by LAKISYLVANIA
Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.

He gets as much as DeSantis.

And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.

Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).

Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.

Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).

With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.
Well, the CBS YouGov Poll has Trump only up 52-47 among Hispanics over Biden. That though is still a 10-Point Shift from the 2020 Exit Polls in FL when Biden won Hispanics over Trump 52-47.

That would make more sense and would align more with a +9 victory.

Quote
The most interesting plot among Latinos I am looking at is whether Trump wins a Democratic-leaning constituency, PUERTO RICANS. They have generally back Democrats over the last 15 years or so but they did go for DeSantis & Rubio in 2022. They were pretty mad at Trump in 2020 for his handling of Hurricane Maria. Biden got 72 % of the Puerto Rican Hispanics in 2020. Meanwhile DeSantis won 56 % of Puerto Ricans in 2022 & Senator Rubio 54 %. Astonishing for a Group that gave Biden 72 % of the Vote in 2020. We are talking about a 50-Point shift here. If that happens in November Democrats are DEAD in Florida I can guarantee you that.

For that, i guess we will have to wait till election day. But I suppose a shift will happen some way or the other, because anti-incumbency and Hurricane Maria no longer being relevant.

And good chance, Biden will have a chance to redeem himself because Atlantic Hurricane Season is almost certain but guaranteed to be one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons ever. it doesn't look good. Of course there's still a chance that like 30 hurricanes create but that none would really strike the USA directly. That is still a possibility. And even in a mild season you can have the bad luck of a pretty bad hurricane striking the USA and otherwise not much activity.

Atlantic Ocean and MDR (main development region) is record warm
WAM (West African Monsoon) will be very active.
We will transition into La Nina most likely which favours hurricane development and low shear levels needed to generate hurricanes.

Literally every single metric is pointing in the wrong direction atm there.


 9 
 on: Today at 04:14:04 PM 
Started by Burke Bro - Last post by Arizona Iced Tea
If Trump wins and does a good job in his second term then I will gladly support him if he wants a third term. There might be a way around the 22nd Amendment by nominating a puppet Republican nominee and putting Trump in as VP and market the ticket as Trump's 3rd term. Then if they win, the President resigns, and Trump takes power. This would likely have to go to court because the 22nd Amendment talks about being "elected" specifically but not necessarily the office itself.  
Well, at least you're admitting that you don't support the Constitution. Thanks for your honesty!
If the loophole is allowed, I don't see how it's not supporting the constitution.

 10 
 on: Today at 04:11:08 PM 
Started by Tender Branson - Last post by Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
Harris was in FL opening offices there

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