Michigan poll

[Gustaf]

40% is not good for an incumbent, like Bush is. That difference is also the same as Gore's margin in 2000.

[Gustaf]

Uh, yeah John, it is up to the people of Michigan to decide who they want for President.  Way to go out on a limb with that statement.

Don't be hard on him, he conducted a poll all on his own, that must have been hard work and deserves some credit.

[Gustaf]

It's going to be closer than 53-46
more like 49- 47

I think it will be closer to 53-46 than to 49-47. Also, John conducted a poll, you're just guessing...

[Gustaf]

If he has ANY chance he has to do a lot better in Oakland county and macomb and hope the people of Detroit don't show up to vote.

Don't bet on that. Voter turnout will most likely be pretty high this time around.

[Gustaf]

Why doesn't anyone think Bush can win Michigan it's a long shot but not impossible

I think Bush CAN win Michigan, but I don't think he WILL. It's a long shot, but not impossible. It's about as likely as Kerry winning Arkansas or Virginia, I'd say.

[Gustaf]

Arkansas maybe, but I think the chances of Kerry winning Virginia are closer to the chances of Bush winning Minnesota.

Do you mean that? MN is a true tossup, some would even say it leans Bush, Virginia I though of as more of a longshot. I was going mostly on 2000 victory margins and the current trends.

[Gustaf]

Nader got 5% there, and that should decrease. That gives Kerry an advantage.

Yeah, Nader's running mate was from MN.

[Gustaf]

We shouldn't even count Buchannan in Bush's totals, he had no support. The reform party collapse was amazing. Read this article from 1999.

http://www.theatlantic.com/unbound/polipro/pp9910.htm

Good article.