French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Umengus]

BVA poll

26-27/02

Laguiller: 2% (-1)
Besancenot: 5% (+2)
Buffet: 3% (-1)
Bové: 1% (-1)

Voynet: 1% (=)
Royal: 25% (-1)

Bayrou: 17% (+2)

Sarkozy: 31% (-2)

De Villiers: 1% (-2)

Le Pen: 14% (+4)


Sarkozy: 53% (+1)
Royal: 47% (-1)

Bayrou: 54% (=)
Sarkozy: 46% (=)

Royal: 45% (-3)
Bayrou: 55% (+3)

Ipsos poll

26-27-28/02

Laguiller: 2% (+1)
Besancenot: 2,5% (-0,5)
Buffet: 2%
Bové: 1% (-0,5)

Voynet: 1,5% (+0,5)
Royal: 25% (-1)

Bayrou: 18% (+0,5)

Sarkozy: 32% (+1)

De Villiers: 1% (-0,5)

Le Pen: 12,5% (-0,5)


Sarkozy: 53,5% (+0,5)
Royal: 46,5% (-0,5)

Ipsos launchs his tracking poll. http://www.ipsos.fr/presidentielle-2007/

CSA poll

28/02

Laguiller: 1% (=)
Besancenot: 2% (-0,5)
Bové: 2% (=)
Buffet: 2,5% (+0,5)

Voynet: 1% (=)

Bayrou: 17% (=)

Royal: 29% (=)

Sarkozy: 29% (+1)

De Villiers: 1% (-1)

Le Pen: 14% (=)

Sarkozy: 52% (+1)
Royal: 48% (-1)

[Umengus]

Just my 2 cents: polls show that Sarkozy beats easily Royal at second turn. But bayrou does the same with Sarkozy. Royal voters will vote bayrou to avoid Sarkozy?

[Hash]

Nicolas Sarkozy  32%   53.5%
 
Ségolène Royal  25%   46.5%

François Bayrou  18%
 
Jean-Marie Le Pen  12.5%

Olivier Besancenot  2.5%

Marie-George Buffet  2%
 
Arlette Laguiller  2%
 
Dominique Voynet  1.5%
 
José Bové  1.5%
 
Philippe de Villiers  1%
 
Frédéric Nihous  0.5%
 
Corinne Lepage 0.5%
 
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan  0.5%

Gérard Schivardi  0.5%
 

[Verily]

Just my 2 cents: polls show that Sarkozy beats easily Royal at second turn. But bayrou does the same with Sarkozy. Royal voters will vote bayrou to avoid Sarkozy?

I'm not sure why you're surprised. Obviously some socialist voters wouldn't vote at all, but most of them would vote for the centrist over the rightist.

[Gustaf]

Just my 2 cents: polls show that Sarkozy beats easily Royal at second turn. But bayrou does the same with Sarkozy. Royal voters will vote bayrou to avoid Sarkozy?

I'm not sure why you're surprised. Obviously some socialist voters wouldn't vote at all, but most of them would vote for the centrist over the rightist.

I'm not sure why you think he is surprised. Obviously he's making a point.

[Umengus]

Just my 2 cents: polls show that Sarkozy beats easily Royal at second turn. But bayrou does the same with Sarkozy. Royal voters will vote bayrou to avoid Sarkozy?

I'm not sure why you're surprised. Obviously some socialist voters wouldn't vote at all, but most of them would vote for the centrist over the rightist.

I spoke about the first turn: At 04/22, socialist voters will vote bayrou to avoid Sarkozy as president?

[Verily]

I think maybe so. There seems to be some indication that many socialists (and center-left voters) are frustrated with Royal's gaffes and favorably impressed by Bayrou's policies to the point at which Bayrou is now drawing equally from right and left, an impressive feat for someone until recently considered center-right.

[afleitch]

Bayrou hits 20% in new poll. Still looking for the rest of the poll.

EDIT: ah here we go

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05032007/323/france-s-bayrou-confirmed-third-man-new-polls.html

[Democratic Hawk]

Bayrou hits 20% in new poll. Still looking for the rest of the poll.

EDIT: ah here we go

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05032007/323/france-s-bayrou-confirmed-third-man-new-polls.html

Is Bayrou the nearest thing this race has to a centrist? If so, should Royal flounder any further, I'd prefer him to Sarkozy, who I wish was in Royal's position as of now

Dave

[Verily]

Bayrou hits 20% in new poll. Still looking for the rest of the poll.

EDIT: ah here we go

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05032007/323/france-s-bayrou-confirmed-third-man-new-polls.html

Is Bayrou the nearest thing this race has to a centrist? If so, should Royal flounder any further, I'd prefer him to Sarkozy, who I wish was in Royal's position as of now

Dave

Yes, Bayrou is a centrist. He's the candidate for the UDF (Union pour la Démocratie Française), which is a centrist, formerly center-right, party. Bayrou in particular has been adamantly opposed to most of Chirac's policies without actually moving to the left (the party is divided into Bayrou's centrist faction and a smaller, center-right, pro-Chirac faction). The party is also notably strongly Europhile, far more so than any party in Britain, even the Lib Dems.

The UDF shares many traits in common with the Liberal Democrats, in fact.



Bayrou's 20% showing may be the beginning of a strong movement of the center-left away from Royal (who will almost certainly lose the second round if not the first) to Bayrou, who would almost certainly win the second round against any challenger but needs to get there first.

[Hash]

Still Sarkozy for me, I hate Royal more and more everyday and Bayrou is a complete nitwit IMO.

[Tender Branson]

Bayrou hits 20% in new poll. Still looking for the rest of the poll.

EDIT: ah here we go

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05032007/323/france-s-bayrou-confirmed-third-man-new-polls.html

Here´s the rest of the poll:

http://www.lh2.fr/_upload/ressources/sondages/politique_nationale/lh2rmcbfmtv20mn5_6_mars07.pdf

It´s actually Sarkozy who´s losing points to Bayrou, not Royal.

Sarkozy from 30 to 28%.
Royal steady at 27%.
Bayrou from 17 to 20%.
LePen from 13 to 14%

Second round:

Sarkozy 52 (50)
Royal 48 (50)

[Hash]

Bah. I find it useless to have heart attacks over polls and look at polls like if they're the confirmed electoral results. Every poll has different date, LH2 might have Bayrou at 20, IPSOS might have him at 18-19.

[Democratic Hawk]

The UDF shares many traits in common with the Liberal Democrats, in fact.

That doesn't exactly endear me to the UDF

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But I'd still take Bayrou over Sarkozy, if it comes to that

Dave

[Umengus]

A bva poll will give tomorrow Bayrou at 21% and Royal at 24% (Sarkozy at 29). But I don't think that Bayrou will be at the second turn. His rise is brutal and his faill will be so brutal too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things have taken another turn for the unpredictable then. Btw, why so sure that Bayrou will collapse? (serious question, not even slightly loaded or anything like that).

[afleitch]

Things have taken another turn for the unpredictable then. Btw, why so sure that Bayrou will collapse? (serious question, not even slightly loaded or anything like that).

Wishful thinking? Bayrou's continued bounce is probably helped with this weeks focus on agricultural issues in the campaign. The only downside is that he is perhaps peaking too early in the campaign.

[afleitch]

SCA survey

Sarkozy 26
Royal 25
Bayrou 24 (!)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

SCA?

[afleitch]

SCA?

Whoops! CSA

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

SCA?

I knew French politics could be rather arcane, but I never knew that the Society for Creative Anachronism did French polls.

[Colin]

SCA?

I knew French politics could be rather arcane, but I never knew that the Society for Creative Anachronism did French polls.

Baron Nicolas of Sarkozy hath recieved 26% of the lots in our most lordly poll of the Frankish kingdom. Lord Francois the Lawgiver hath increased his goodly vote to nearly betwixt Baron Nicolas and Lady Segeline.

[© tweed]

SCA survey

Sarkozy 26
Royal 25
Bayrou 24 (!)

Bayrou/Royal top two. 

[Verily]

SCA survey

Sarkozy 26
Royal 25
Bayrou 24 (!)

Bayrou/Royal top two. 

That's beginning to look a lot more likely. I guess the French agree that Sarkozy comes off as creepy and prefer the politician with "the charisma of a coffee table" (Bayrou). Any of the three combinations seems realistic at this point.

My predictions:

Sarkozy: 52
Royal: 48

Bayrou: 59
Royal: 41

Bayrou: 54
Sarkozy: 46

[afleitch]

I don’t expect any candidate to poll, on the day anything higher than the 20’s. It appears that Bayrou took support from Royal early on but is now eating into Sarkozy’s support. Royal has been flatlining for the past two weeks and more, but while not spectacular it may prove her salvation and passage to the second round. Though it should be noted that the IPSOS daily trackers have not noted this bounce (but daily trackers aren’t worth the money in my opinion) Ultimately Bayrou has been ignored by both Sarkozy and Royal in this campaign and has painted himself as a centrist against the left/right dichotomy. When he is finally targeted by both Royal and Sarkozy he may prove vindicated; ‘left and right gang up on Bayrou’ etc. As I mentioned previously, this week has seen the campaign focus on rural issues (with Royal photographed holding a lamb in true Lady T style) and Airbus. For Bayrou, ever the provencial farmer, this was going to be his week anyway. If he was still on say 10% of the poll he’d still get a few points bounce, but of course his familiarity is now much higher.

Also, what can often be forgotten is that this election will be the first of the post-Chirac era. Chirac was the ‘right’ for decades; RPR and UMP were vehicles for ‘Chiracisme’ and as most centre-right parties in the fifth republic have been personality based, the UMP will struggle to survive in it’s present form regardless of whether Sarkozy wins or looses (and I certainly can’t see any party establish itself ‘around’ Sarkozy!) Bayrou has also, successfully pressed the issue of economics. The UMP and the PS are still statist parties and despite the rhetoric wish to govern France on the statist model. Bayrou and the UMP while Europhile, are also free-market, but not trying to emulate the Anglophone free market system which is political suicide even for those who secretly support it.