May 2024 - Rate the election

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate the election as of May 2024.

[heatcharger]

My guy couldn’t even wait till May to open this thread.

[Tekken_Guy]

My guy couldn’t even wait till May to open this thread.

May starts in 3 hours.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The majority of the PVI have Biden winning anyways so it's Lean D

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tilt D.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Tilt R

Can't believe i'm the first one voting for that option. Can't see how anyone can based on data suggest Biden has the edge, but also believe the election is way too close at the moment, so that it could easily go both ways because it's way too early.

Like Tilt R is the only real option one can choose based on data.

If this was election day though already, i would move towards lean R though, but it's just may.

Suggesting Biden has the edge right now is wishy washy thinking and not based on data but on gut feeling / wishful thinking that Biden will take the lead which he might very well do but no data suggests that as of now.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R. It's not impossible for Biden to win, but the clock's ticking for him to stop blocking the ceasefire.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Tilt R. I can't believe I am typing that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R. I can't believe I am typing that.

Marist came out with Biden +2

[°Leprechaun]

None of the above. It's 100% tossup.
Can't anyone see this?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Lean R. It's not impossible for Biden to win, but the clock's ticking for him to stop blocking the ceasefire.

Six months is a long time in politics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol don't quote SL

[Sir Mohamed]

Tbh, I'm unsure.

According to polling, the race is Lean R. However, polling is a snapshot in time at best, if not flawed this cycle in particular. On the other hand, fundamentals look decent for Biden. We have to see whether polling starts to catch up with that or not. Biden has improved after his SOTU, but lately feels like the tide has turned again. At least to a certain degree.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tbh, I'm unsure.

According to polling, the race is Lean R. However, polling is a snapshot in time at best, if not flawed this cycle in particular. On the other hand, fundamentals look decent for Biden. We have to see whether polling starts to catch up with that or not. Biden has improved after his SOTU, but lately feels like the tide has turned again. At least to a certain degree.

It's a gamble to run Harris as I have stated many times, she doesn't have skyhigh Approvals like she did in 20. Abrams and Alsobrooks have higher favs than Harris now, that's why Newsom on new shows is prepping for a run in 28. Should Also brooks nab the S seat she will be the fav to run with Newsom in 28

But, all we need is 278 WI, PA, MI, NH and NV and VA, Harris Approvals can get Biden that

It's tilt Biden unless he loses because it's J6, Trump, users need to stop blaming Biden Harris polls are low, it's not low with me but with Rs

We went thru the same situation with Pence he had higher Approval in 16 than 20

[Vern]

Trump is favored

[MillennialModerate]

I mean are we doing these every two days or so?
In April I said Trump but there were positive signs for Biden.

That has been reversed.
Trump wins and distressingly easy.
 
I think he wins every swing state except maybe Pennsylvania (would said AZ too but now that the law is being repealed I think the turnout factor is moot)

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Lean Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

I mean are we doing these every two days or so?
In April I said Trump but there were positive signs for Biden.

That has been reversed.
Trump wins and distressingly easy.
 
I think he wins every swing state except maybe Pennsylvania (would said AZ too but now that the law is being repealed I think the turnout factor is moot)

We usually do it once a month.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean Trump.

Lol Biden has 270

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Lean D. Donald Trump is a candidate terrible beyond belief. Any remotely plausible GOP candidate would make it Likely R (even if I personally think Biden deserves better), but I think polling and Republicans alike underestimate just how many people are willing to make an efforts to vote for "Don't put Donald Trump back in power".

[xavier110]

Tilt R. I can't believe I am typing that.

Agree. I have no idea how to read this election. I can’t deny every poll that suggests Trump will win. What’s reassuring is the 2022 vibes I’m getting, a certain deja vu quality to this race.