Census Estimates for 2007 -> 2010 Apportionment (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 11, 2024, 11:28:05 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Census Estimates for 2007 -> 2010 Apportionment (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Census Estimates for 2007 -> 2010 Apportionment  (Read 22756 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,010


« on: December 31, 2007, 07:14:05 PM »

I'm curious where the knife is going to fall in New York. 2010 will mark the first census in modern times in which Nassau and Suffolk will not have sufficient population for a full four districts, although it will be very close.

I don't see how the 5th, 7th, and 9th districts all survive. Anthony Weiner said he felt like the Thanksgiving turkey before the 2002 redistricting until the numbers came out and New York City was found to have grown more than predicted. The geography has only gotten worse for his district since then.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,010


« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2008, 05:04:23 PM »

Based on county projections from July 2006 estimates, here's how a 10th district might be placed in WA. District 1 moves up into Snohomish county and takes up most of the county. District 2 stays west of the cascades, but now links Bellingham to Bremerton across the islands. District 3 has to move west along the Columbia and would stretch from Vancouver up to Kennewick. District 4 links Yakima and Walla Walla, which district 5 gives up to keep to the new smaller sized districts. District 6 remains in Tacoma but only extends to the near suburbs like Lakewood and Puyallup. District 7 and 8 are much the same being Seattle and Bellevue/eastern King/eastern Pierce respectively. District 9 could be entirely in King stretching from Renton to Federal Way. And then the new district 10 is formed from Olympia and the Olympic peninsula all the way down the Pacific coast.

I'll leave it to locals to determine the likely partisan makeup of those districts. Wink

If Washington gains a 10th district, the Republicans can thank illegal immigration. Those two trans-Cascadian districts have enormous non-citizen Latino farm worker populations that bulk up their numbers but don't directly affect the vote totals, except insofar as there's a conservative backlash to their presence.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,010


« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2008, 10:45:28 AM »

Thank you for posting the chart and projections. Fascinating stuff.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 12 queries.