French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Umengus]

Sofres poll

04/04-05/04

Schivardi: <0,5% (-0,5)
Laguiller: 2,5% (+1,5)
Besancenot: 4% (+0,5)
Bové: 2% (-0,5)
Boffet: 3% (+0,5)

In 2002, the result of extreme left was 13%

Voynet: 1% (=)
Royal: 23,5% (-3,5)

Bayrou 20% (+2)
Nihous: 1,5% (+0,5)

Sarkozy: 28% (-2)

De Villiers: 1,5% (+0,5)

Le Pen: 13% (+1)

Did not express: 20% (+5)

Royal: 46% (-2)
Sarkozy: 54% (+2)

Did not express: 20% (+4)

Bayrou: 52% (-2)
Sarkozy: 48% (+2)

did not express: 20% (+2)

Important to say that since 22/03, presidential candidates have an equal time to speak on tvs and radios.

[Umengus]

Csa poll

04/04-05/04

Schivardi: 0,5% (=)
Laguiller: 2% (=)
Besancenot: 3,5% (+0,5)
Buffet: 2% (-2)
Bové: 1,5% (-0,5)

Voynet: 1,5% (+0,5)
Royal: 23,5 (-1)

Bayrou: 21% (+1,5)
Nihous: 1,5% (+0,5)

Sarkozy: 26% (=)

De Villiers: 1% (-0,5)

Le Pen: 16% (+1)

Turnout: 79% (=)

Royal: 48% (=)
Sarkozy: 52% (=)

Turnout: 77% (+2)

[Umengus]

No way is Le Pen going to get over 20% of the vote. The highest that he could ever achieve, in my mind, is about 18% or 19%. I think that's really the upper level for the far right.

it was his level in 2002. since then, difficult to see for wich reason it would lose votes. Rebsamen, the director of campaign of Royal and a guy who knows the ground, has said 2 weeks ago that Le Pen would do 20%+ and an UDF  deputy says the same. Lots of politicians thinl that Le Pen will be at 20%.

Except ipsos poll, independent pollster but this company works often for sarkozy and in my opinion overestimates him, all polling institutes give Le Pen at a level never polled before.

[Umengus]

No way is Le Pen going to get over 20% of the vote. The highest that he could ever achieve, in my mind, is about 18% or 19%. I think that's really the upper level for the far right.

How much did he get last time?

16,84% and Megret, dissident, 2,34%

[Umengus]

FRENCH ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Le Pen targets immigrant vote in Paris suburbs
Visit to ethnically diverse Argenteuil a direct challenge to rival's 'scum' remark
ANNA WILLARD

Reuters News Service

ARGENTEUIL, FRANCE -- Far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen visited a multiracial French suburb at the centre of a "scum" gibe by conservative presidential front-runner Nicolas Sarkozy yesterday, in a direct challenge to his rival.

The veteran anti-immigration campaigner shook hands with local women wearing veils and a black man during a surprise visit to the Argenteuil estate, a drab concrete affair surrounded by high-rise blocks just north of Paris.

"We want to help you get out of these suburban ghettos where French politicians have parked you . . . only to call you scum later," Mr. Le Pen said, reading from prepared remarks to a small audience of locals and two busloads of journalists.

During a 2005 visit to Argenteuil, Mr. Sarkozy, then interior minister, vowed to rid the poor neighbourhood of the "scum" he said were ruining life for other residents.

 The comments were partly blamed for fuelling tensions in the ethnically diverse French suburbs, which had erupted into the worst riots in 40 years after two youths died of electrocution while apparently fleeing police.

Mr. Sarkozy has not returned to Argenteuil since. Mr. Le Pen and other rivals have taunted him over his unwillingness to visit the suburbs during his campaign for fear of sparking new unrest.

"Thank you for allowing me to speak here, where even our former interior minister dared not come," Mr. Le Pen said at the start of a 50-minute visit.

"I want to prove that there are no 'no-go' areas as far as we are concerned."

Mr. Sarkozy's nearest rival for the presidency, Socialist Party candidate Ségolène Royal and centrist contender François Bayrou, have both successfully visited run-down neighbourhoods without incident and have questioned Mr. Sarkozy's ability to represent the nation when he cannot visit certain areas of the country.

Mr. Sarkozy's election troubles took another bad turn yesterday when a former government ally accused the French presidential candidate of hurling insults at him during the riots in 2005 and of trying to intimidate his political enemies.

The comments by former equal opportunities minister Azouz Begag in a new book will complicate Mr. Sarkozy's efforts to soften the hard-line image he built up during the riots in poor and ethnically diverse suburbs.

Mr. Begag resigned from the cabinet on Thursday and is supporting Mr. Bayrou.

Mr. Begag recalled he had criticized Mr. Sarkozy for describing violent youths as "scum."

"You're an arsehole. An unfaithful bastard!" Mr. Begag quoted Mr. Sarkozy as telling him on the phone. "I'm gonna smash your face in."

Mr. Sarkozy denied yesterday he insulted Mr. Begag, a Muslim born in France of Algerian parents.

The title of Begag's book, Un mouton dans la baignoire (A sheep in the bathtub), is a reference to a comment Mr. Sarkozy made in a recent television show, when he said Muslim immigrants had to respect French traditions.

"That means no polygamy, no female circumcision and no slitting sheep's throats in the apartment," Mr. Sarkozy said.

Yesterday's visit by the 78-year-old Mr. Le Pen to Argenteuil provoked diverse reactions. Some locals tried to ask him questions and have a discussion, while others angrily shouted insults.

"I don't think much of him. . . . He has come here to provoke us," said Rachid Ben Slam, a 16-year-old student.

One women shouted: "We don't need you here," as Mr. Le Pen chatted to people outside a neighbourhood shop.

The Socialist Party denounced the visit as a media circus.

source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070407.FRANCE07/TPStory/TPInternational/Europe/

[Umengus]

No way is Le Pen going to get over 20% of the vote. The highest that he could ever achieve, in my mind, is about 18% or 19%. I think that's really the upper level for the far right.

How much did he get last time?

16,84% and Megret, dissident, 2,34%

Ok, I am fairly new to this stuff so please explain what I bolded if you get a chance.

Megret was the n°2 of the FN before his "putch-putch" in 1998. Today, he supports Le Pen and I think that his voters too.

[Umengus]

I'm guessing that I'd be a Sarkozy supporter (as I wait for someone to call me a Le Pen backer... ). Bayrou seems to close to the left for me.

probably. Sarkozy is clearly the most american-friendly candidate. Le Pen is anti-american candidate (but not his daughter who, some years ago, had meet US GOP politicians) and anti-israel too.

Sarkozy supports affirmative action and the fact to give money to build mosque.

The economic program of le pen is very reaganian and his views on security are the same that GOP (death penalty,...). Le Pen is also anti-imigration (like Tancredo) and Sarkozy is more soft on this problem.

[Umengus]

Megret was the n°2 of the FN before his "putch-putch" in 1998. Today, he supports Le Pen and I think that his voters too.

Who did he endorse in the second round in 2002? IIRC a lot of his voters actually went with Chirac.

Megret endorsed Le Pen and his voters have probably voted in great majority for le Pen. Difficult to say with certitude but megret was at the right of Le Pen hence difficult to imagine megret voters to vote for a guy like Chirac.

[Umengus]

all polling institutes give Le Pen at a level never polled before.

Which means one of two things; either Le Pen is doing better than he has before or that (for whatever reason) there's less shame in admitting to voting for Le Pen than there has been previously.

Impossible to respond for now (but for me, option 1). Answer 22/04.

[Umengus]

In fact, Sarkozy is at the right of Le Pen on insecurity. Interesting to see if FN voters have the same opinion.

[Umengus]

A question to those from the trenches:
What are Le Pen's economic policies. You Umengus say they're Reganian. Can you elaborate on that. What does he specifically propose?

http://www.lepen2007.fr/blog/index.php?budget

in french of course.

[Umengus]

all polling institutes give Le Pen at a level never polled before.

Which means one of two things; either Le Pen is doing better than he has before or that (for whatever reason) there's less shame in admitting to voting for Le Pen than there has been previously.

Impossible to respond for now (but for me, option 1). Answer 22/04.

Very probably a mix of both, actually.

The problem is always the same for pollsters: the result of Le Pen before correction (not sure but I think that it's +- 6%) is underestimated. it's sure. Question: how to correct that? black box of course. I remember that for a same moment, a poll institute gave 17% to le Pen and another 10%. Some people say to vote for Sarkozy but in fact they will vote Le Pen. Same for bayrou. ...

For these reason, polls about le pen are too subjective. I prefer a structural analyse.

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

05-06/04

Schivardi: 0,5%
Laguiller: 2% (=)
Besancenot: 4,5% (-0,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (+0,5)
Bové: 2% (=)

Voynet: 1,5% (=)
Royal: 22% (-1)

Bayrou: 19% (-1)
Nihous: 1,5% (=)

Sarkozy: 29,5% (+2)

De Villiers: 1% (-0,5)

Le Pen: 14% (=)

Did not say: 2% (-2)

Royal: 46% (-2)
Sarkozy: 54% (+2)

did not say: 5% (=)

[Umengus]

LH poll

06-07/04

Schivardi: 0,5% (+0,5)
Laguiller: 1,5% (+0,5)
Besancenot: 4% (-1)
Bové: 2% (=)
Buffet: 2,5% (-0,5)

Voynet: 2% (+1)
Royal: 24% (-2)

Bayrou: 18% (=)
Nihous: 1% (=)

Sarkozy: 28% (-1)

De Villiers: 1,5% (+0,5)

Le Pen: 15% (+2)

undecided: 47% (-6)

Royal: 48% (-1)
Sarkozy: 52% (+1)

[Umengus]

I can't believe that nearly half of the electorate is still undecided. Is this common?

Also, what is this about the campaign "officially" starting today (a little under two weeks before voting begins)?

there are 12 candidates. and you can easily hesitate between Besancenot or Laguiller, Bayrou or Royal,...

I don't think that this level of undecision was so high for the referendum in 2005 but there were only 2 options...

[Umengus]

The bva pollster has said today that in april 2002, the result of the last bva poll of le pen without correction was 6,9%. Today, 2 weeks begore the election, his result is 6%.

[Umengus]

9 days before the first turn and false (or not) rumors begin to fly in the political sky. The last in date would be a poll realized by "les renseignements généraux" (secret services who have the mission to informe government on the state of france. In politics too.) who would give Sarkozy first and Bayrou and le Pen fighting for the second place. royal out.

This info is given by the nouvel obs, a newpaper who supports royal.

[Umengus]

Interesting opinion given by Giacometti, the ipsos pollster:

-he sees turnout at 80% (+8% compared to 2002)

-hesitation (40%) is the same than in 2002. Just the fact that the electorate of bayrou is not solid. I add that le pen electorare is very sure.
the last ipsos poll:

Bayrou 17,5% but 58% sure
Le Pen: 14% but 86% sure

-Sarkozy should be first. No sure for the rest. It wil be difficult for Le Pen to break the 20% line but he agrees on the fact that this line will be decisive to pass.

-53% of people (and 1/3 socialists) see the win of Sarkozy. Only 14% Royal and 7% Bayrou.

-only 55% of socialists voters (her primary voters maybe...) would like see Royal elected. 65% of udf voters would like see Bayrou elected. 77% of ump voters would like see Sarkozy elected.

Motivation is for Sarkozy.

[Umengus]

BBC mentions a poll saying Sarkozy 29%, Royal 25%, Bayrou 15%, Le Pen 13%

---

A note about coverage here; as soon as the polls close, this thread will be locked and a Results/Analysis thread will be opened. I'll probably then re-open this one in a few days time.

Oh, one more thing. Anyone interested in a prediction contest?

First exit polls will be given at local 6 pm. it will be internet rumors.
First good exits poll at 7 Pm on belgian tv or suisse tv. French channels can not give exit polls before polls stations closed (8 pm).

Last polls:

Ipsos 17-18/04

Sarkozy: 30% (+0,5)
Royal: 23,5% (-1)
Bayrou: 18,5% (=)
Le Pen: 13% (-0,5)

Sofres 16-17/04

Sarkozy: 28,5% (-1,5)
Royal: 25% (-1)
Bayrou: 19% (+2)
Le Pen: 14% (+2)

Bva 16-17/04

Sarkozy: 29% (+1)
Royal: 25% (+1)
Bayrou: 15% (-3)
Le Pen: 13% (-1)

Csa 16/04

Sarkozy: 27% (+1)
Royal: 25% (+2)
Bayrou: 19% (-2)
Le Pen: 15,5% (+0,5)

Ifop 12-13/04

Sarkozy: 28% (-1)
Royal: 22,5% (-1,5)
Bayrou: 19% (+1)
Le Pen: 12,5% (-0,5)

Friday, the last polls of the campaign for the first turn.

[Umengus]

I don't change my prediction:

Sarkozy: 25%
Royal: 21%
Le Pen: 20%
Bayrou: 15%

Larger predictions:

Sarkozy: 25-27
Royal: 21-23
Le Pen: 18-20
Bayrou: 15-17

Very good turnout (77%)

[Umengus]

So how does this work - do the polls open Friday and close Sunday with the results of the first round?

As far as I know voting starts Saturday morning (local time) in Polynesia and ends at 8pm Sunday (local time - Mainland France).

Also, voters in French-Guyana in South-America are voting on Saturday, maybe on Sunday too, but I don´t really know.

They can´t vote until 8pm local (Guyana Time), because they would still be voting when the results are announced in mainland France, 8pm local time.

45 Mio. French are eligible to vote.

Ok well does anyone know for sure what time and day the polls open and close mainland France time? I could also convert the time to EST on my own.

Mainland France:

Open - 8am local time, Sunday
Close - 6pm smaller towns, 8pm bigger cities

Oversea Dept.:

Don´t know, I just know they start voting on Saturday.

Ok so someone please explain why this thread says April 20, 2007.

my bad... 22 april of course but this thread is old.

[Umengus]

latest polls of the campaign before the 1 turn.

Sofres poll (18-19/04)

Sarkozy: 28% (-0,5)
Royal: 24% (-1)
Bayrou: 19,5% (+0,5)
Le Pen: 14% (=)

Besancenot: 5% (+1,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (=)
Laguiller: 1,5% (=)
Bové: 1,5% (+0,5)
Nihous: 1,5% (=)
De Villiers: 1,5% (=)
Voynet: 1% (-0,5)
Schivardi: 0,5%

extreme left: 11% (13% in 2002)
Le Pen+ Sarkozy: 42%

Csa poll (18-19/04)

Sarkozy: 27% (=)
Royal: 26% (+1)
Bayrou: 17% (-2)
Le Pen: 16% (+0,5)

Besancenot: 5% (+1)
Bové: 3% (+1,5)
Buffet: 1,5%
Voynet: 1,5% (-0,5)
Laguiller: 1% (=)
De Villiers: 1% (-0,5)
Nihous: 1% (-0,5)

extreme left: 11%
Le Pen+ Sarkozy: 43%

Ipsos poll (18-19/04)

Sarkozy: 30% (=)
Royal: 23% (-0,5)
Bayrou: 18% (-0,5)
Le Pen: 13% (=)

Besancenot: 4% (+0,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (=)
De Villiers: 2,5% (+0,5)
Nihous: 2% (=)
Voynet: 1,5% (=)
Laguiller: 1,5% (=)
Bové: 1,5% (+0,5)
Schivardi: 0,5% (=)

extreme left: 10%
Le Pen+Sarkozy: 43%

Ifop poll (17-19/04)

Sarkozy: 28% (=)
Royal: 22,5% (=)
Bayrou: 20% (+1)
Le Pen: 13% (+0,5)

Besancenot: 4% (=)
Buffet: 3% (=)
De Villiers: 2,5% (=)
Laguiller: 2% (-1)
Nihous: 1,5% (-0,5)
Bové: 1,5% (=)
Voynet: 1,5% (=)
Schivardi: 0,5% (=)

extreme left: 11%
Le Pen+Sarkozy: 41%

My comment: Besancenot's surge is not a surprise when you know that extreme left has 5 candidates(/12) and the time at tv, radios,... is equal between the 12. i'm just suprised by the fact that laguiller is so low: it's her sixth campaign and in 2002, she did better than besancenot (5%). But all polls say the same about her then...

Interesting also will be the turnout: the sarkozy electorate seems to have greater motivation than the royal electorate.

And don't forget that the solidity of the Bayrou vote is weak, but it's the "useful vote" to beat Sarkozy (say polls).

[Umengus]

Sorry but the latest polls were not the latest polls. Still polls with friday.

Ipsos 19-20/04

Sarkozy: 30% (=)
Royal: 23,5% (+0,5)
Bayrou: 17% (-1)
Le Pen: 13,5% (+0,5)

Besancenot: 4,5% (+0,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (=)
De Villiers: 2% (-0,5)
Laguiller: 2% (+0,5)
Nihous: 2% (=)
Voynet: 1,5% (=)
Bové: 1% (-0,5)

Refuse to say: 14%

CSA poll (20/04)

Sarkozy: 26,5% (-0,5)
Royal: 25,5% (-0,5)
Le Pen: 16,5% (+0,5)
Bayrou: 16% (-1)

Besancenot: 5% (=)
Buffet: 2,5 (+1)
Laguiller: 2% (+1)
Bové: 1,5% (-1,5)
Voynet: 1,5% (=)
Nihous: 1,5% (+0,5)
De Villiers: 1,5% (+0,5)
Schivardi: <0,5%

turnout: 81% (=)

My opinion is that ipsos overestimates the sarkozy vote and csa pollster said that, for him, some voters say to vote sarokozy but in fact they will vote for le Pen.

Sunday at 8 pm, some pollsters will be not beautiful to see...(like in 2002)

[Umengus]

LH2 IFOP CSA SOFRES BVA IPSOS

Nicolas Sarkozy 27 28 26,5 28 29 30

Ségolène Royal 23 22,5 25,5 24 26 23,5

François Bayrou 19 20 16 19,5 17 17

Jean-Marie Le Pen 14 13 16,5 14 12,5 13,5

Olivier Besancenot 5 4 5 5 5 4,5

José Bové 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1 1

Marie-George Buffet 2,5 3 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,5

Arlette Laguiller 2,5 2 2 1,5 2,5 2

Gérard Schivardi 0,5 0,5 0 - de 0,5 0,5 0,5

Dominique Voynet 2 1,5 1,5 1 1 1,5

Frédéric Nihous 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 1 2

Philippe de Villiers 1,5 2,5 1,5 1,5 2 2

2E TOUR :
Sarkozy/Royal 51/49 51/49 50/50 53/47 52/48 53,5/46,5

[Umengus]

A tunisian polling firm gives:

Before correction and with undecided:

Royal: 32%
Sarkozy: 29%
Bayrou: 19%
Le Pen: 5,1%
Besancenot: 4,5%
Buffet: 2,5%
Bové: 2,3%
Voynet: 1,5%
Laguiller: 1%
Nihous: 0,8%
Schivardi: 0,5%

did not say + undecided: 53%

After their correction and undecided pushed  :
(details on http://www.3cetudes.fr/070420%202400%20Suivi%20Elections%20FINAL%20IC%20HG.htm )

Royal: 25%
Sarkozy: 22%
Le Pen: 21%
Bayrou: 17%

Besancenot: 5%
De Villiers: 2%
Bové: 2%
Buffet: 1,5%
Voynet: 1,5%
Laguiller: 1%
Nihous: 1%
Schivardi: 0,4%

Problem is that this firm is recent and has no experience. But if they are right, very good for them...