French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Umengus]

www.lesoir.be should give exit polls at local 6 pm. www.rtbf.be at 7 pm. And also zwisterland tv I think.

[Umengus]

If Royale wins expect Sharia law in france in 20-30 years

Oh, please. I'm no fan of Royal, but that's utter bullsh**t, and you know it.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Except I am sort of a fan of hers.

If its not too late, I'd like to revise my prediction:

Sarkozy  28%
Royal      26%
Le Pen    18%
Bayrou    18%

I hope that Tunisian Poll is right, although its the first one I've seen with Royal leading, so it might be an outlier (sp?)

Vive la France!

outlier maybe but outlier in the correction then.

[Umengus]

Which candidate should a high turnout benefit?

difficult to say. I would say le Pen because a high turnout= lots popular voters (often non voters) at polling stations. But it's not scientific and some people think not the same.

12 am: turnout: 31,21% (21,4% in 2002)

[Umengus]

Russian NTV Channel said that their "trusted" sources say

Sarkozy 30%
Royal 25%
Bayrou 15%
Le Pen 15%

Very good for Sarkozy if it's true but it's too early.

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Can't believe Le Pen at 15.

it's possible if sarkozy is at 30%

Sarkozy and Royal would be at the second run, Le Pen just before Bayrou. (rumors)

[Umengus]

Sarkozy: 26,5%
Royal: 26%
Bayrou: 16%
le Pen: ?

source: http://www.romandie.com/infos/ats/display.asp?page=20070422175721111111111111111.xml

With this result (conform to csa poll), Le Pen should do good result.

[Umengus]

Ipsos would give:

Sarkozy: 27%
Royal: 26%
Bayrou: 18%
Le Pen: 16%

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Ifop would give:

Royal: 26%
Sarkozy: 26%
Le Pen: 19%
Bayrou: 18%

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Polls should be closing in about an hour and a half, right?

polls closed since for 37 minutes behalve for some cities (still 1h 20)

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servers are busy, very slow. Damn it!

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http://www.advalvas.be/fr/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=12300&comments=1#reactions

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Csa poll would give:

sarkozy: 29%
Royal: 26%
Bayrou: 19%
Le Pen: 11% (!!!)

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RTBF gives csa numbers. RTL says that some polls give le pen 3rd or far behind Bayrou.

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Can someone tell me which candidate likes America?  I'm going to assume none but maybe one is out there?

the nickname of sarkozy:  sarko the american.

[Umengus]

ipsos, first votes counted:

Sarkozy: 30%
Royal: 25%
Bayrou: 17%
Le Pen: 10%