French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Umengus]

So, it looks like a Royal-Sarkozy Election ?

Are there any polls about this matchup ?

yes but completely irrelevant for now.  the last ipsos poll gave 51%-49% for Sarkozy but the last ifop poll gave, in terms of preference, 55%-42% for Royal.

Why irrelevant ? Both are leading with big margins in their parties. It looks Royal has a good chance to win this and we get another woman on top of a European country.

I wanted to say that polls for second run were irrelevant. Too early.

[Umengus]

Are the LCR and the PCF running candidates? 

Yes:

PCF (communist): Buffet (3%)
LCR (extr left): Besancenot: 5%
LO (extr left): Laguiller: 5%

Question is to know if there will be only one candidate for this 3 parties. Each candidate want to be this candidate...

[Umengus]

What is Le Pen polling right now and that other far right guy?

Le Pen at 12-13% for now. De Villiers at 3-5%. megret should support Le Pen. And Sarkozy (far right for some people) at 32-37%.

[Umengus]

CSA poll

29-30/08, 833

Laguiller: 3%
Besancenot: 5%
Buffet: 3%

Voynet: 2%

Royal: 28%

Bayrou: 8%
Le page (center-right & green): 2%

Sarkozy: 29%

De Villiers:5%
Le Pen: 15%

Turnout: 67%

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll (scocial)

25/08-02/09, 478 socialists voters (but the voters will be the socialist militants)

last ipsos poll: 18-26/08

Royal: 52% (-5)
Jospin: 17% (+2)
DSK: 14% (+3)
Lang: 10% (+1)
Fabius: 5% (=)
Hollande: 2% (-1)

9% have not expressed.

[Umengus]

Sofres poll (Presid)

04-05 sept, 1000

(last sofres poll: 17 jul)

Laguiller: 3% (-1)
Besancenot: 3,5% (-0,5)
Buffet: 3% (=)

Voynet: 1,5% (=)

Royal: 34% (+2)

Bayrou: 7% (+1)

Sarkozy: 36% (+1)

De Villiers: 2% (-1)

Le Pen: 10% (-1,5)

Did not express: 18% (-3)


Typical a pre-campaign poll. See the incoherence with the csa poll...

[Umengus]

Ifop poll (social)

31 aug-08 sept, 621 socialist voters (last ifop poll: june)

Royal: 51% (+1)
Jospin: 15% (+1)
DSK: 10% (+2)
Lang: 7% (-2)
Kouchner: 5% (-1)
Aubry: 4% (+1)
Fabius: 3% (=)
Hollande: 3% (=)

[Umengus]

Ipsos Poll (soc)

08-09 sept, 530 (last ipsos poll: 25 aug-02 sept)

Royal: 56% (+4)
Jospin: 16% (-1)
DSK: 12% (-2)
Lang: 10%
Fabius: 3% (-2)
Hollande: 3% (+1)

6% did not express

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll (Pres)

08-09 sept, 954

Laguiller: 4% (=)
Besancenot: 4% (-1)
Buffet: 3% (+2)
Bove: 2% (-1)

Voynet: 2% (=)

Royal: 27% (-1)

Bayrou: 6% (=)

Sarkozy: 36% (-1)

De Villiers: 4% (+2)

Le Pen: 11% (=)


16% did not express

Second turn:

Royal: 48% (-1)
Sarkozy: 52% (+1)

13% did not express

 

[Umengus]

Jospin quits presidential race with attack on Royal

source: http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article1771856.ece

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

29-30 sept, 245 socialists

Royal: 68% (+14)
DSK: 23% (+12)
Fabius: 9% (+6)

[Umengus]

CSA poll

17-18 oct 2006, 838
last csa poll: sept 06


Laguiller:4 (-)
Besancenot: 4 (-1)
Buffet:3 (=)

Voynet: 2 (-1)

Royal: 32 (+1)

Bayrou: 7 (+1)

Sarkozy: 31 (+1)

De Villiers: 2 (-1)

Le Pen: 15 (=)

Turnout: 68% (+1)

[Umengus]

Le Pen's up to 15% I see. Last time I checked he was at 12% or so.

ANy second round data?

csa poll

Royal: 52% (=)
Sarkozy: 48% (=)

CSA has given Le Pen at 15% for 3 polls. Others polls institutes give him around 12%. But RG ("renseignement généraux", police services who have the official mission to inform government) give Le Pen at 20%-22%. Not a surprise when the Sarkozy policy against the crime seems to be a failure. Insecurity and immigration will be the strongest issues during the campaign.

[Umengus]

Tomorrow, there will happen the socialist primary to pick the candidate who will represent the socialist party at the presidential election.

218 000 militants
4000 polling station
good turnout predicted
end of vote: 10 pm

There are no polls about this race because it's impossible for pollsters to ask question to militants. But there are (were) polls on socialist voters, a greater population. On EU referendum in 2005, it was the same situation and polls were correct.

Consequently, (great) suprise(s) is possible.

My prediction:

Royal: 45%-60%
DSK: 25%-35%
Fabius: 15%-25%

 

[Umengus]

the only surprise is the weak score of DSK. He tought that he would be clearly second and in 30's. The result of Fabius was predicted. Royal very strong.

[Umengus]

Royal first in all French departments excepted 2 (seine maritime (fabius's fief) and haute corse) ...

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/infog/0,47-0@2-823448,54-835445@51-822961,0.html

[Umengus]

Recently there were rumors that the popular French Secretary of Defense, Michèle Alliot-Marie of the conservative UMP, may also challenge Nicolas Sarkozy in the UMP primaries next January.



Allthough Sarkozy has broad support in his party she could eventually be a threat to his chance of becoming the UMP nominee.

Would be nice to see a Royal vs. Alliot-Marie race

UMP is the party of, by and for Sarkozy. I can't imagine another people like UMP candidate but it's possible that a "chiraquien" (villepin, alliot-Marie or Chirac himself) runs for president and conseqently creates a new party. Wait and see but it will be very difficult, for a right candidate, to fight against Sarkozy at the first turn.

[Umengus]

BVA poll

UMP primary (hypothetical for now)

Sarkozy: 66%
Alliot Marie (defense minister): 15%
De Villepin (PM): 11%

do you want that Chirac still runs like president?

all: yes: 24% no: 72%
right people: yes: 15% no: 83%

[Umengus]

Ipsos poll

UMP prim

Sarkozy: 77%
Alliot-Marie: 17%
De Villepin: 6%

[Umengus]

Poll: 17 percent of French voters back extreme-right Le Pen in presidential race
The Associated PressPublished: November 24, 2006

PARIS: About 17 percent of French voters back extreme-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen ahead of spring presidential elections, according to a poll published Friday.

The poll, carried out by the CSA polling agency for Le Monde newspaper and i-tele TV station, suggests Le Pen's poll numbers are now on par with the score he garnered in the first round of the 2002 presidential elections — a result that sent him into the run-off with incumbent President Jacques Chirac, shocking France.

If elected, Le Pen, leader of the National Front, has pledged to push through a "zero immigration" policy, pull France from the European Union and NATO, outlaw abortions and restore the death penalty.

CSA polled 1,002 people by telephone on Nov. 21 and 22. No margin of error was provided.

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 Le Pen's poll figures have risen 8 percentage points since January. Stephane Rozes, head of CSA, told Le Monde that Le Pen had likely gained ground because of continuing tensions in suburbs with a high percentage of residents of immigrant origin.

Young attackers have set fire to several public buses in recent weeks, attacks that coincided with the anniversary of riots that raged through neglected housing projects nationwide a year ago. In an attack in the southern city of Marseille, a woman was seriously burned.

This week, Le Pen said he was having trouble getting the required 500 official backers he needs to run for president in 2007. He appealed to the prime minister to keep supporters' names secret — a measure he believes would help him get the signatures he needs. The request was promptly turned down.

If Le Pen makes it into the race, he will join a slew of candidates, including Socialist lawmaker Segolene Royal and the center-right's likely candidate, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy.

source: International Herald tribune.

the last ipsos poll gave only 10% to le Pen but probably that csa is correct.

[Umengus]

CSA poll

Laguiller: 3 (=)
Besancenot: 5% (+1)
Buffet: 3% (-1)

Voynet: 2% (-1)

Royal: 32% (+3)

Chevenement: 1% (-2)

Bayrou: 6% (-1)

Sarkozy: 29% (-1)

De Villiers: 2% (=)

Le Pen: 17% (+2)

Turnout: 73% (+3)

Royal: 53% (+2)
Sarkozy: 47% (-2)

T: 74% (+3)

After her nomination, a little bump for Royal was predicted. it's the case. Not sure that it will be long.

CSA says also that if Le pen can't run, 8% would go to Sarkozy, 5% to Royal, 3 % to de villiers, 1% to laguiller.

[Umengus]

Alliot marie should run in UMP primaries but she will not win. Some pundits say that UMP primaries will be unfair to avoid a humiliation for alliot-marie... lol


Some Pundits say also that it's very doubtful a chiraquien runs directly for president. 

[Umengus]

I'm French and I'm going to vote Sarkozy. I just thing Segolene Royale does not have the suitable experience to be President just yet- maybe in a couple years. Chevenement has decided to rally Segolene BTW.

...to regain his MP mandate...

[Umengus]

nice girl...

[Umengus]

in 2002: Le Pen+Megret= 19%
Hence, in 2007, it would not be a surprise if Le Pen reachs the 20% line but 2 differences with 2002: first, de villiers who can take 2-3% to Le Pen and secondly Sarkozy with his security stance.