French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

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Le Pen and...

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nice girl...

So is she a supporter or is she an example of what they oppose?

Shame, they might deport her if they win..

she supports Front national and front national is the first party to have elected a muslim (but the girl is maybe not muslim, she's from antilles. And, of course, she doesn't wear a headscarf). Some black women are also FN elected members (Hugette Fatna). And deportation is not in the FN progr.

I posted that because lots of people and medias were suprised.

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The Front always has had different posters for different kinds of neighborhoods... this is your typical "left/right (ie, traditional parties) have bungled everything!" poster - note it doesn't say how assimilation and social mobility and separation of church and state should be handled.
Then there's the type (seen only when the left governs) about how the entire Gauche Plurielle is Communist (seen one with the G of Gauche shown as hammer & sickle)... and then, of course, there's the poster for the lily-white suburb nearby, the one with the little blonde boy and the words "for his future". Yeah, they're good at telling everybody what they want to hear. There's probably some anti-islamic stuff up nowadays as well... that part of the message wasn't as important a couple years ago when I travelled France extensively. Mind you, the Laicité part of this one is actually about that, not about Christians.

agree

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Royal still leads Sarkozy in the latest CSA/Le Monde poll conducted on January 3, 2007:

1st Round:

Ségolène Royal: 34%
Nicolas Sarkozy: 32%
Jean-Marie Le Pen: 15%
François Bayrou: 6%
Marie-George Buffet: 5%
Arlette Laguiller: 3%
Olivier Besancenot: 2%
Philippe de Villiers: 2%
Dominique Voynet: 1%

Run-Off:

Ségolène Royal: 52%
Nicolas Sarkozy: 48%

http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2007/opi20070103a.htm

The PCF is doing better than in 2002, atleast for now... 5% is good score for them. If I was 18, I'd vote Sarkozy, atleast he's said something and he's going to do something to control immigration. No offense but I don't really know what Royal said yet!

first poll to give PCF at 5% but for me it's just the product of media attention. A fake small bump.

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farid smahi, member of the FN executive.



Huguette Fatna, member of the FN executive

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First poll for the legislative elections in June:

"The Socialist Party and Sarkozy's ruling party UMP also tied in a poll of voters' preferences for June parliamentary elections. The Socialists came in well behind the UMP in the last legislative elections in 2002, though gained ground in 2004 regional elections.

Both parties would enjoy 31 percent of the vote if the elections were held this weekend, according to the poll by L'Observatoire Electoral BVA-Orange. Le Pen's National Front and the center-left National Republican Movement would come in next, each with 10 percent."

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/01/10/europe/EU-POL-France-Close-Races.php

"and the center-left National Republican Movement" if it's the party of Megret, it's not center-left but just a copy of the national front (Megret will not be candidate. He has accepted the "patriotic union" of Le Pen).

In 2002, just after presidential election, national front+mnr did a weak result (12,4% vs 19,3% at the presidential election) because the weak organization. the regionals elections in 2004 were good for national front and consequently the territorial organization seems better than in 2002. In 1997, national front did 15% and caused left win.

And the best is to wait the result of the presidential election before to make polls on legislative

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source: cevipof

average of polls in janurary, febr, march and april.

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source: http://www.eludefrance.net/presidentielles/pres2002/president2002T1/departPres1erTour2002.htm

Le pen results at the 1st run in 2002

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In 2002, just after presidential election, national front+mnr did a weak result (12,4% vs 19,3% at the presidential election) because the weak organization.

Not because of that (or not only because of that - I couldn't judge, but I guess the latter). Le Pen also gets some personal votes that the FN as a party doesn't get.

I disagree. FN did 14,95% at 1st at parlement elections in 1997 and still 14,7 (only FN. FN+MNR did 16,1%) at regionals elections in 2004. I think that FN will survive to the death of Le Pen. 

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Ifop poll (01/15, just before the Sarkozy nomination)

Laguiller: 3%
Besancenot: 3,5%
Buffet: 3% (-1)

Royal: 28% (-1)
Voynet: 2% (=)

Bayrou: 12% (+1)

Sarkozy: 33% (+3)

De Villiers: 3% (+1)
Le Pen: 10% (-1)

Sarkozy: 52% (+3)
Royal: 48% (-3)

Csa poll (01/17 last 01/03)

Schivardi: 0,5%
Laguiller: 3% (=)
Besancenot: 4% (+2)
Buffet: 3% (-2)

Royal: 29% (-5)
Voynet: 2% (+1)

Nihous: 0,5%

Bayrou: 9% (+3)

Sarkozy: 30% (-2)

Dupont-aignan: 1%

Devilliers: 3% (+1)

Le Pen: 15% (=)

turnout: 74% (+2)

Sarkozy: 52% (+4)
Royal: 48% (-4)




My opinion:

1) ifop sucks. CORRECTION: This poll institute gave only 10% to lepen in 2002, a week before the election. At the same time in 2002, ifop gave 11% to chevenement and 9% at Le Pen. Do you now understand why some people have a problem of confidence in polls?

2) The bayrou bump (due to his anti-tf1 (first tv channel) stance I think) is like the chevenement bump in 2002. 

3) some people say that dupont aignan and lepage will call to vote Bayrou in few days.

4) Second turn polls suck too.

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sofres poll

(before the nomination of sarkozy) Comparaison with october.

Besancenot: 4% (=)
Laguiller: 3,5% (+0,5)
Buffet: 2% (=)

Royal: 34% (=)

Bayrou: 9% (+2)

Sarkozy: 29% (-7)

De Villiers: 2% (=)

Le Pen: 14% (+3) (sofres has never given le pen at 14% in 2002)

Did not: 10%

Sarkozy: 48% (-1)
Royal: 52% (+1)

did not: 15%

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Has anyone done any head to head polling of Le Pen against either Sarkozy or Royal in case he should make it to the second round unexpectedly once more?

no

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Is there a site with polls from 2002 on it?

http://francepolitique.free.fr/sondages.htm

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Royal suspends spokesman for slighting partner
By AFP

React Send by e-mail Save Print PARIS, Jan 18, 2007 (AFP) - Segolene Royal, the Socialist frontrunner for France's April presidential election, Thursday suspended one of her spokesman after he slighted her partner with a joke.
   
Arnaud Montebourg "is suspended from his functions, he will not be speaking in my name for a month," Royal told AFP.
   
Montebourg, responding to a presenter on a light-hearted television show Wednesday who asked what Royal's weaknesses were, said: "Segolene Royal has only one weak point -- her companion."
   
Royal and Francois Hollande, the leader of the Socialist Party, have been a couple for more than 25 years and have four children together.
   
The Socialist candidate was forced into a tight corner earlier this week after Hollande called for tax increases for people earning more than 4,000 euros (5,165 dollars) is she is elected.
   
His proposal was not coordinated with Royal's campaign headquarters and prompted a quick rebuttal from the candidate herself, who is anxious not to alienate France's middle classes.
   
Although Montebourg quickly told the TV presenter he was "having a laugh" with his answer, on Thursday he was forced to offer his resignation over a comment he said he been "unfortunately badly interpreted."
   
Royal, while saying that Montebourg's answer was "uncalled for", declined to accept the resignation but decided on the suspension.
   
"I want my spokesman to focus on serious issues," she said.
   
Royal has been thrown onto the defensive since the weekend acclamation of her centre-right rival Nicolas Sarkozy, with a new poll showing her ratings have fallen to 48 percent compared to 52 percent for Sarkozy.
   
The tax episode also snowballed into a row over Royal's own wealth, as she was forced to deny a false Internet rumour that she and Hollande had used a legal device to avoid paying wealth tax.
   
Hollande filed suit for libel over the false allegation, but it forced Royal to admit that she does pay wealth tax -- as do both Sarkozy and the far-right National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen.
   
The tax row made front page news in France on Thursday, with experts warning that it could prove damaging for both main candidates' claim to speak for the middle and lower classes.   

source: france24

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Royal bid for French presidency failing, say party critics

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Socialist mandarins in France are growing increasingly anxious about the unconventional campaign of their presidential candidate, Ségolène Royal, who faces an avalanche of bad opinion polls in the next couple of days.

One Socialist leader took the extraordinary step of "bugging" a private campaign meeting by leaving his mobile phone open to a reporter at the newspaper Le Monde while colleagues argued tactics with Mme Royal. In the private conversation on Tuesday night, reported in detail in the newspaper yesterday, a string of Socialist leaders complained that Mme Royal had been too "passive" and inaudible while her main rival on the centre-right, Nicolas Sarkozy, launched his campaign with great success at the weekend.


"We need political speeches," one politician told the meeting of the campaign's steering committee. Others said that Mme Royal should have attacked M. Sarkozy or generated alternative headlines of her own.


Mme Royal, 53, has decided to run a "grassroots" and "participative" campaign, in which she "listens to" voters before making her own pronouncements. This phase of her campaign is due to last until 11 February.


Replying to criticism during the private meeting "bugged" for Le Monde on Tuesday, she said: "We have to keep our nerve... We are doing things which are perhaps less visible, and cost less money, but they will give greater credibility and strength to our presidential campaign."


For several weeks, there has been tension between Mme Royal's "action committees", which run her "grassroots" campaign, and the Socialist party leadership, which wants a more conventional approach. The conflict has been given added spice by the fact that the party's leader is her own partner, François Hollande.


M. Hollande caused consternation in his wife's camp a few days ago by announcing that a future, Socialist programme of government would require tax increases for anyone earning over €4,000 (£2,800) a month. Mme Royal repudiated the statement. M. Hollande accepted this week that it was for the candidate to decide.


Earlier, however, he protested that his comments could not have run counter to Mme Royal's proposals on taxation, because she "had never made any". Relations within the couple are said to be somewhat strained.


Mme Royal believes that she can win the election in April and May with the same unconventional tactics with which she captured the Socialist party nomination last autumn. Although a senior figure in the party for 15 years, she ran as an outsider whose programme would be shaped by the "real" concerns of the electorate, not by party dogma.


Mme Royal is convinced that this approach fits the mood of a nation which has grown cynical about mainstream politics.


Hard-boiled party officials and politicians fear that the gloss may be starting to come off the "Royalist" method. She has generated mostly negative news coverage in recent weeks with real or apparent gaffes during foreign expeditions to the Middle East and China.


In China last week, she repeatedly wore white, the Chinese colour of mourning. She stayed clear of human rights questions but praised the Chinese justice system for being "more rapid" and "efficient" than the courts in France.


A series of opinion polls today and tomorrow is expected to show M. Sarkozy moving ahead of Mme Royal. Until recently, Mme Royal has been slightly ahead, or neck-and-neck with M. Sarkozy in voting intentions for the two-round presidential election on 22 April and 6 May. Mme Royal and her closest advisers insist this is just a blip and that her "I-listen-to-you" style of campaigning will ultimately capture the nation's anti-political and anti-establishment mood.


Old-campaigners within the Socialist party say that this is all very well but that most electors gather their impressions from the television news and the newspapers. Mme Royal's unconventioial approach risks being drowned out by the more traditionally media-focused campaign of M. Sarkozy.

source: belfast telegraph

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sofres poll (01/17-18, After the Ump congress)

Besancenot: 3% (-1)
Laguiller: 2% (-1,5)
Buffet: 3% (+1)

Voynet: 2%

Royal: 31% (-3)

Bayrou: 9% (=)

Sarkozy: 35% (+6)

De villiers: 1% (-1)

Le Pen: 13% (-1)

Did not express: 23%

Sarkozy: 52% (+4)
Royal: 48% (-4)

Sarkozy: 85%
Le Pen: 15%

Royal: 78%
Le Pen: 22%

Don't forget, it's a sofres poll...

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Royal demands that rumours cease about her relationship
Jan 23, 2007, 10:00 GMT


Paris - French Socialist Party presidential hopeful Segolene Royal demanded Tuesday that rumours about her longtime relationship with party chief Francois Hollande cease.

'It is important that the rumours stop, that we are left in peace,' she told Europe 1 radio. 'Every day we hear something new about our relationship. The French people are tired of this intrusion into our private lives.'

The 53-year-old Royal and the 52-year-old Hollande have been a couple for 26 years and have four children, though they have never married.

Since Royal has been nominated as the Socialist presidential candidate, many political observers have wondered how this would affect their relationship, since Hollande reportedly also had coveted the nomination.

In addition, their relationship has been the source of some discord in her electoral campaign.

When Hollande declared that if the Socialists come to power this year, they will roll back a tax decrease enacted by the conservative government on those earning more than 4,000 euros (5,200 dollars) per month, Royal replied, 'I'm not in favour of raising taxes.'

And she suspended her spokesman, Arnaud Montebourg, last week after he said jokingly on a television talk show, 'Segolene Royal has only one flaw - her partner.'

These missteps helped fuel discussion, both in the media and on the internet, about a romantic rift and even separate apartments for the two.

One right-wing blog, Jakouille la Fripouille, declared 'Segolene Royal and Francois Hollande have separated,' and went on to castigate 'the bogus Royal-Hollande couple' for 'treating the French people like imbeciles' by pretending they were still together.

On Tuesday, Royal denounced what she called 'internet manipulations by certain parliamentarians' of the UMP party of her rival, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy.

source: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/news/article_1250343.php/Royal_demands_that_rumours_cease_about_her_relationship

Royal would ( have a "relation" with the ex-boss of Renault, louis schweitzer, and francois hollande with a socialist mp.

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Ségolène Royal Slammed for Quebec Comments
Tue, 23 Jan 2007 10:58:00


Québec - Royal Freedom?
 
 

Ségolène Royal is once more at the centre of controversy abroad after proclaiming that she was in favour of Quebec independence. In a radio interview with André Boisclair, head of the Independence Movement in Quebec, she claimed they shared common values - including freedom and the sovereignty of the province.



The Ottowa government has condemned Ségolène Royal after she declared herself in favour of the independence of the province of Québec. In a radio interview with André Boisclair, head of the independentist Parti Québecois, Royal said that the two shared common values, i.e. "freedom, and the independence of Québec".

The issue of independence has been a thorn in Canada's side for many years. Two referendums have been held, in which les Québecois rejected independence. The first vote, in 1980, saw independence rejected by a relatively large majority. The second, however, was much tighter.

Since General de Gaulle's famous declaration "Vive le Québec Libre" in 1967, Québec and France have often had a frosty relationship, with leaders in Québec and Canada annoyed at unwarranted French intervention. Parallels have been drawn today with that famous speech; Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said that Royal's declaration was "out of place", and added "Experience teaches that it is highly inappropriate for a foreign leader to interfere in the democratic affairs of another country".

Stephen Dion, head of the Liberal federalist Party in Canada, added that "She does not understand, you do not interfere in the affairs of a friendly country, you do not wish for the dismantling of a friendly country. Canada does not wish for the dismantling of France and France certainly does not wish for the dismantling of Canada".

Québec PM Jean Charest equally rapped Ségolène Royal for her comments, claiming that Ségolène Royal had never even visited Québec, after turning down an official invite. He went on to add that only Quebeckers can vote on whether the province should become independent or not.

Ségolène Royal today hit back by claiming that she not interfering, saying: "I am neither interfering nor indifferent. As in any democracy, the sovereign people will decide, as they are free." When asked if she would quote de Gaulle in saying "Vive le Québec libre" she responded: "I wouldn't go that far".


reactions@paris-link.com

source: http://www.paris-link-home.com/news/121/ARTICLE/1638/2007-01-23.html

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Haha! Still, unless France's attitude towards Quebec has changed a lot in recent years, I can't really see that hurting her with voters.

she gives the impression that, on foreign affairs, she's not fit for the job. One gaffe is not enough to hurt her campaign but one gaffe+one gaffe+one gaffe+... = failure in May (or april).

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ifop (lol) poll

01/18-20

Laguiller: 3% (=)
Besancenot: 4% (+0,5)
Buffet: 3%

Voynet: 3% (=)

Royal: 28% (=)

Bayrou: 12,5% (+0,5)

Le page (right-green candidate): 1% (=)

Sarkozy: 32,5 (-0,5)

De villiers: 2% (-1)

Le Pen: 11% (+1)

Royal: 49% (+1)
Sarkozy: 51% (-1)

Bayrou: 49%
Sarkozy: 51%

Bayrou: 50%
Royal: 50%

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Bva poll

01/22-23

Laguiller: 4% (+1)
Besancenot: 7% (+3)
Buffet: 3% (=)

Voynet: 0,5%

Royal: 27% (-8)

Bayrou: 13% (+5)

Le page: 0,5%

Sarkozy: 32% (+1)

De Villiers: 2% (-1)

Le Pen: 10% (+1)


Royal: 48% (-3)
Sarkozy: 51% (+2)

Ipsos poll
01/19-20

Laguiller: 2% (+0,5)
Besancenot: 3,5% (+0,5)
Buffet: 3,5% (+0,5)

Voynet: 2 (+0,5)

Royal: 29% (-3)

Bayrou: 11% (+1)

Sarkozy: 32% (-1)

De Villiers: 3% (+0,5)

Le Pen: 13% (+1)


Royal: 48% (-2)
Sarkozy: 52% (+2)

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Just for the sheer hell of it, I decided to check if in 2002 Le Pen won any Cantons in the second round; he didn't (unless I missed one). His highest % was (I think) 37% in St Gilles (Gard department).

I'm preparing a FN results comparaison (by departments) at elections 1998 (regionals) , 2002 (presidential. Only 1st run. Second run was a "hysterie")and 2004 (regionals). It's not still totally done but it's interesting to see that results of FN in 2004 are enough equivalent to the elections 1998 (before the Megret "putch-putch"). It's the proof that the FN organization is better than in 2002.

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Louis harris

01/26-27

Besancenot: 2%
Laguiller: 2%
Buffet: 5%
José Bové: 2%

Voynet: 2%

Royal: 29%

Bayrou: 14%
Le page: 0,5%

Sarkozy: 31%

De Villiers: 2%

Le Pen: 10%


20% did not express

Royal: 49%
Sarkozy: 51%

16% did not express


Ipsos poll

01/26-27

Besancenot: 3,5% (=)
Laguiller: 2,5% (+0,5)
Buffet: 3,5% (=)
Bové: 1%

Voynet: 2% (=)

Royal: 26% (-3)

Bayrou: 11% (=)

Le Page: 1% (=)

Sarkozy: 35% (+3)

Dupont Aignan (gaullist): 0,5%

De Villiers: 2% (-1)

Le Pen: 11% (-2)

17% did not express

Royal: 46% (-2)
Sarkozy: 54% (+2)

20% did nto express

74% of udf voters for Sarkozy in the runoff.
76% of fn voters for sarkozy in the runoff.

My comment:

-Some socialists think to call Jospin to be the candidate...

-Sarkozy overatted and Le Pen underestimated. Not suprised if at the election day sarkozy realizes 25% and Le Pen 20%.

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Is it correct to say that those who 'do not express' will still vote, but they won't say why or are undecided? If so, who do you think they will 'break' for?

EDIT- good site, probably been mentioned on here before http://www.election-politique.com/pres1995.php it also has tv coverage of the exit polls from each round back to the 70's. (Miterrands victory in 1988 was heralded by the sounds of Dire Straits )

correct.

Difficult to say for wich candidate whose refuse to express will vote. Traditionnaly, Le Pen surges in polls in the last days.