French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

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CSA poll

01/31 (last csa poll: 01/17)

Schivardi: 0,5% (=)
Laguiller: 2% (-1)
Besancenot: 2% (-2)
Buffet: 3% (=)
Bové (officially candidate): 1%

Voynet: 2% (=)

Royal: 27% (-2)

Bayrou: 12% (+3)

Le Page: 1%

Nihous: 1% (+0,5)

Sarkozy: 31% (+1)

Dupont Aignan: 0,5% (-0,5)

De Villiers: 1% (-2)

Le Pen: 16% (+1)

Turnout: 74% (=)

Sarkozy: 53% (+1)
Royal: 47% (-1)

Turnout: 72% (-2)

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sofres poll

01/31-02/01 (last 02/17-18)

Laguiller: 3% (+1)
Besancenot: 2,5% (-0,5)
Buffet: 2,5% (-0,5)
Bové: 4%

Royal: 28% (-3)

Voynet: 1,5% (-0,5)

Le page: 0,5% (=)

Bayrou: 13% (+4)

Sarkozy: 32% (-3)

Dupont-aignan: 0,5% (=)

De Villiers: 2% (+1)

Le Pen: 12,5% (-0,5)

Did not express: 19% (-4)

Royal: 47% (-1)
Sarkozy: 53% (+3)

Did not express: 20% (-2)

 

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Umengus,

Any truth in the rumours that the Extreme left might decide in the end to rally around one candidate instead of splitting the vote four ways like last time?
And if so, what are the chances that this candidate "does a Le Pen" and goes to the second round. And would an extreme leftist do any better against Sarkozy (or Royal) than Le Pen did against Chirac?

Also could you give a general position where some of the more obscure candidates stand - mainly Dupont-aignan and Lepage.

each candidates must have 500  "signatures" (of mayors or regionals elected) to be candidate. Not sure that the 5 extreme-left candidates will have this result. each candidate wait that another extreme left candidate retires his run. It's a problem of "ego". In 2002, there was already 4 extr-left candidates. Hence, no surprise if there are still 4 or 5 candidates. One candidate (but who?) could get (maybe) 10% but no more. And lots of besancenot voters in 2002 should vote for Royal (the "useful vote").

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CSA poll

Schivardi: <0,5%
Laguiller: 2% (-1)
Besancenot: 4% (+2)
Buffet: 2% (-1)
Bové: 3% (+2)

Voynet: 1% (-1)
Royal: 26% (-1)

Le page: 0,5% (-0,5)

Nihous: 1% (=)

Bayrou: 12% (=)

Sarkozy: 33% (+2)

Dupon Aignan: 0,5% (=)

De Villiers: 2% (+1)

Le Pen: 14% (-2)

Turnout: 75% (+1)

Sarkozy: 54% (+1)
Royal: 46% (-1)

Turnout: 73% (+1)

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ipsos poll

BEFORE the royal performance at tv (9 000 000 spectators (40 000 000 voters)).

Royal: 23% (-4)
Bayrou: 16% (+2)
Sarkozy: 33% (-1)
Le Pen: 13% (=)

Royal: 46% (-1)
Sarkozy: 54% (+1)

If Royal comes back in polls, Bayrou will lost punts. it's mechanic. Wait for others polls but csa poll seems a little bit crazy..

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the dark horse stays le pen.

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Le Pen is no longer the dark horse; Sarkozy's rhetoric prevents any serious contention by him. Royal may do poorly in the first round and may even lose out to Bayrou, but she won't lose out to Le Pen.

rhetoric is just... rhetoric. Reality is there and not in favor of Sarkozy. And what about unemployement?, poverty?, immigration?... Majority of people thinks that France is on the bad track. Good for le pen.

Interesting to see the (over) power of polls. One week ago, Royal was done. Today she's the favorite. Etc. Medias are overinfluenced by polls, like in 2002.

Interesting also to see great movements in polls (-5 +4). not always a good reason to eplain that. Why Sarkozy does -5? ...

PS: Don't forget that in 2002, the last ifop poll gave 10% (-7% comparing with reality) at Le Pen. Hence, Le  pen is at 19?

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BVA poll

26-27/02

Laguiller: 2% (-1)
Besancenot: 5% (+2)
Buffet: 3% (-1)
Bové: 1% (-1)

Voynet: 1% (=)
Royal: 25% (-1)

Bayrou: 17% (+2)

Sarkozy: 31% (-2)

De Villiers: 1% (-2)

Le Pen: 14% (+4)


Sarkozy: 53% (+1)
Royal: 47% (-1)

Bayrou: 54% (=)
Sarkozy: 46% (=)

Royal: 45% (-3)
Bayrou: 55% (+3)

Ipsos poll

26-27-28/02

Laguiller: 2% (+1)
Besancenot: 2,5% (-0,5)
Buffet: 2%
Bové: 1% (-0,5)

Voynet: 1,5% (+0,5)
Royal: 25% (-1)

Bayrou: 18% (+0,5)

Sarkozy: 32% (+1)

De Villiers: 1% (-0,5)

Le Pen: 12,5% (-0,5)


Sarkozy: 53,5% (+0,5)
Royal: 46,5% (-0,5)

Ipsos launchs his tracking poll. http://www.ipsos.fr/presidentielle-2007/

CSA poll

28/02

Laguiller: 1% (=)
Besancenot: 2% (-0,5)
Bové: 2% (=)
Buffet: 2,5% (+0,5)

Voynet: 1% (=)

Bayrou: 17% (=)

Royal: 29% (=)

Sarkozy: 29% (+1)

De Villiers: 1% (-1)

Le Pen: 14% (=)

Sarkozy: 52% (+1)
Royal: 48% (-1)

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Just my 2 cents: polls show that Sarkozy beats easily Royal at second turn. But bayrou does the same with Sarkozy. Royal voters will vote bayrou to avoid Sarkozy?

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Just my 2 cents: polls show that Sarkozy beats easily Royal at second turn. But bayrou does the same with Sarkozy. Royal voters will vote bayrou to avoid Sarkozy?

I'm not sure why you're surprised. Obviously some socialist voters wouldn't vote at all, but most of them would vote for the centrist over the rightist.

I spoke about the first turn: At 04/22, socialist voters will vote bayrou to avoid Sarkozy as president?

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A bva poll will give tomorrow Bayrou at 21% and Royal at 24% (Sarkozy at 29). But I don't think that Bayrou will be at the second turn. His rise is brutal and his faill will be so brutal too.

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Things have taken another turn for the unpredictable then. Btw, why so sure that Bayrou will collapse? (serious question, not even slightly loaded or anything like that).

Bayrou has no solid basisground. New People who say to vote for him are not sure and the probability that they can change their mind is great. Secondly, the anti-system stance of bayrou is just a joke. Thirdly, this guy has no ideas behalve a government between center-right and center-left leaders. His model is the grand coalition in Germany.  And Bayrou has not the charisma for the job.

Note that Bayrou rise in poll is provoked by the bad campaign leaded by royal and Sarkozy: no strong measures, no great ideas,... The atmosphere seems to be the same that in 2002: slackness. But yesterday, sarkozy has given a new start at the campaign:

"PARIS (Reuters) - French presidential hopeful Nicolas Sarkozy was accused by his rivals of xenophobia and flirting with far-right voters on Friday after proposing to create a ministry for immigration and national identity.

The Socialist party called for him to retract the idea and centrist Francois Bayrou said he had gone too far in the latest round of mudslinging among politicians as the campaign for the April- May election intensifies.

Sarkozy, who is the interior minister for the ruling centre-right UMP party, sparked the row by proposing to create the new ministry if he is elected as part of his plan to streamline the government.

"I want a ministry of national immigration and national identity because today, the immigration portfolio is split between three different ministries," he said on Thursday.

Sarkozy has made a tough line on immigration a feature of his campaign in what has been seen as an effort to pick off votes from far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen, who stunned France in the 2002 presidential election by finishing second.

Sarkozy is just ahead of Socialist Segolene Royal in opinion polls, but a poll this week showed that centrist Francois Bayrou was snapping at their heels.

Sarkozy has responded to the emergence of Bayrou by softening his stance to woo the centrist vote but critics said his latest comments on immigration were a clear play to pick up support from the far right.

Socialist party leader Francois Hollande said the comments were a "serious flirt" with the theories of Le Pen's National Front party while Communist candidate Marie-George Buffet said the idea was "xenophobic". 
Le Pen runs on a platform of hardline immigration policies but he says he is struggling to collect the 500 mayoral signatures needed to run in the election.

Sarkozy has come to his aid, promising to fight to make sure that Le Pen is allowed to participate."

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He'll get the signatures; he's likely just fooling around for symphathy; did it last time round as well.
IIRC one of the far left candidates is having more genuine trouble though.

Problems for Le Pen (and besancenot) are real (like in 2002). 

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I haven't been to find that IFOP poll anywhere. Could you give a link, afleitch?

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/11032007/363/sondage-francois-bayrou-rattrape-segolene-royal.html

It also says that should Le Pen fail to make the ballot we would have;

Sarkozy 34.5
Bayrou 25
Royal 24

Le Pen will be candidate. Thank you Sarkozy who has needed the votes of le pen for the second run.

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If Bayrou is the Condorcet winner, as the polls are now consistently suggesting, then democratic fairness dictates that he should become the next President. It's as simple as that.

Not sure that Bayrou would beat Sarko.

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CSA poll

Schivardi: 0,5 (+0,5)
Laguiller: 2% (+1)
Besancenot: 2% (-0,5)
Buffet: 2% (+1)
Bové: 2% (-1)

Royal: 26% (+1)
Voynet: 1% (=)

Bayrou: 21% (-3)

Nihous: 0,5% (=)

Sarkozy: 27% (+1)

De Villiers: 1,5% (+0,5)

Le Pen: 14% (=)

Turnout: 77% (+1)

Royal: 47% (=)
Sarkozy: 53% (=)

CSA tests Bayrou against royal and sarkozy but refuse to give results...

Comment: First poll to give bayrou losing %. Not the last, in my opinion.

My (first) prediction:

Sarkozy: 25%
Royal: 21%
Le Pen: 20%
Bayrou: 16%

I have forgotten my paper to office. hence, I will give my prediction for the others candidates soon.

Note that some pollsters and lots of politicians think  that Le Pen is underestimed in polls. They think, and for me they are right, that he will break the 20% line.

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Ipsos also released a poll today:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15058

Sarkozy: 28.5 (-2.5)
Royal: 24 (-1.5)
Bayrou: 23 (+1.5)
Le Pen: 13.5 (+1)


Also, your assertion that Le Pen is actually at 20% is frankly absurd. Le Pen's vote has been extremely stable for 3 straight elections, always around 15%. The highest he could possibly get is 17% of the vote, and that would involve Sarkozy collapsing.

Absurd?

Le Pen+Megret in 2002= 19,2% Megret voters should vote for le pen and not for sarkozy. You can add the St josse voters (rural party) which did 4% at last presidential election. Le pen should catch the half of these. The violence in suburbs, the immigration problem wich take importance (crime will be maybe for the last days), the "normalization" of lepen stances (by sarkozy and co),... play well for le Pen.

De villiers's impact seems zero and only Sarkozy can, but probably not at the first run, catch some FN voters.

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Time's reporting that a disgruntled advisor attacked Segolene as 'an incompetent amateur and egomaniac who was a danger to France.' With her only motive being 'personal glory' Oh dear, oh dear.

Chirac thinks the same about sarkozy but he will not it say.

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This poll was predicted...

BVA poll

Schivardi: 0,5 =
Laguiller: 2% (=)
Besancenot: 4% (+1)
Buffet: 4% (+1)
Bové: 2% (=)

Voynet: 1% (=)
Royal: 24% (+1)

Nihous: 0,5% (=)

Bayrou: 17% (-4)

Sarkozy: 31% (+2)

De villiers: 1% (-1)

Le Pen: 13% (=)

Did not express: 15%

Royal: 46% (-3)
Sarkozy: 56% (+3)

did not express: 16%

The only chance for Bayrou to regain votes is to appear like the only candidate to beat Sarkozy.

My prediction for the next: rise of le pen and fall of Sarkozy. To match with the reality.

Note that the "commission of polls" says the 2 csa polls (giving Bayrou +7 and -3) had mistakes in their elaboration (the correction by pollsters were crazy).

Ipsos tracking poll gives Bayrou at 18,5% (-2).

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How can CPNT be considered right or left? The only thing I know other than their recreational/hunting policy is refusal of the admission of Turkey...

CPNT is rural. His voters are conservative. Will ovte Sarkozy. But 0,5% is not 4,3%, result in 2002.

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Paris Riot Puts Security on Top, Aiding Le Pen (Update2)

By Francois de Beaupuy

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Riots at a Paris train station this week put crime at the center of the French presidential campaign, aiding nationalist leader Jean-Marie Le Pen and hurting Socialist party candidate Segolene Royal, a poll showed.

Le Pen gained 2 points with 15 percent of the April 22 vote, a CSA poll held March 28 and 29 showed. Royal would get 24.5 percent, down 1.5 points from a week earlier. Governing party candidate Nicolas Sarkozy remained at 26 percent. In the presidential runoff on May 6, Sarkozy would defeat Royal 52-48, up from 50-50 a week ago, today's poll showed.

Law-and-order and security issues play into the hands of Le Pen, the leader of the anti-immigration National Front, while Royal is perceived as soft on crime after she and other opposition leaders blamed the violence on the strong-arm tactics of the police, political analysts said.

``The Socialist party isn't in a position to reassure people on security as much as the right,'' Dominique Reynie, a senior researcher at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris, said in an interview. ``Neither Sarkozy, nor Royal should stick with that theme. People may vote for the National Front.''

More than 100 people fought with the police on March 27 at the Paris train station of Gare du Nord, which handles the Eurostar service to London, suburban trains and the subway. Violence broke out after a ticket check in the subway. Images of youths destroying stores and ticket booths raised the specter of the 2005 riots, when thousands of cars were burned in three weeks of violence in suburbs populated mostly by immigrants from North and sub-Saharan Africa and their French-born offspring.

The Blame Game

``In 2005, urban violence benefited Nicolas Sarkozy and Jean-Marie Le Pen,'' said Jean-Daniel Levy, a director at Paris- based pollster CSA, in an interview today. Voters ``are waiting for'' Royal ``to take a stand,'' he said.

Le Pen's party blamed this week's riots on Sarkozy, the former interior minister, and the government's ``lax'' immigration policies.

``The repetition of riots point to the failure of the supposed `security policy' of Sarkozy,'' the National Front said in a statement on March 28. ``The situation is the direct consequence of the massive and insane immigration policy conducted by successive governments over the past 30 years.''

Royal faulted Sarkozy's tough law-and-order policy. She said the riot was a symptom of the lack of ``mutual confidence'' between citizens and the police. Royal, who advocates boot camps for unruly teenagers, rejected claims she's soft on crime.

``I defend a fair order,'' Royal said at a rally in Tours on March 28. ``A fair order is when the same rules apply to all, whether small or powerful.''

`2002 Situation'

In 2002, President Jacques Chirac was re-elected on a pledge to fight crime, an issue which Lionel Jospin, the Socialist candidate at the time, admitted to have underestimated. Le Pen unexpectedly made it to the run-offs, leapfrogging Jospin to finish second.

``It's surprising to be back in the 2002 situation,'' Reynie of the Institute of Political Studies said. ``People will confuse crime, immigration and youth, which is risky because no- one knows who will come out of the box.''

The campaign has so far focused largely on voters' preoccupation with the country's 8.4 percent jobless rate, poverty, education, pensions and rising rents and diminishing purchasing power. Crime and immigration rank sixth and seventh among voters' concern, a BVA poll published March 29 showed. The poll was held March 26 and 27, before the Gare du Nord riots.

`Fed Up'

``We're hearing a lot of people who are fed up, especially since the Gare du Nord incident,'' Regis de la Croix-Vaubois, a National Front executive from the rural Burgundy region, said in an interview today. `` Since Wednesday, everybody talks exclusively about it. We're feeling there's a good backdrop.''

Sarkozy, who quit as interior minister two days before the violence broke out, has been quick to strike back at the Socialists for their initial reaction.

``Authority is on our side, frauds, riots are on the other side,'' Sarkozy said on March 28 at a campaign rally in Lille, Northern France.

Thirteen people were arrested after the attempt to check tickets in the subway turned violent. The fracas began after the police held a ticket-less man they said was in France illegally.

``It refocuses security at the center of the debate,'' Patrick Devedjian, an adviser to Sarkozy, said. ``It helps those who bring solutions for security. It doesn't help the left.''

Sarkozy Ahead

If Sarkozy were elected president, there would be fewer of these types of incidents, according to 39 percent of the 1,008 people polled over the past two days by OpinionWay for Le Figaro and LCI. Thirty-eight percent said that about Le Pen and 17 percent about Royal. The Paris-based polling company surveyed a sample of the voting population on the Internet.

``Sarkozy is seen as the most competent on security, even if his achievements'' at the ministry ``don't seem ideal,'' said CSA's Levy.

Francois Bayrou, a self-described centrist, dropped 1.5 points in the CSA poll. He would get 19.5 percent of the first- round vote, CSA said. CSA, which polled 922 registered voters for Le Parisien newspaper and i-Television by telephone, didn't give a margin of error.

To contact the reporter on this story: Francois de Beaupuy in Paris at fdebeaupuy@bloomberg.net .


source: bloomberg.com

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clearly a very important moment in the campaign. Sarkozy was not in a good shape but with these riots, he is renforced and the dynamic is for him because he is judged better on crime than Royal or others. It's good also for Le Pen.

I tought that Sarkozy would reserve his better weapon (crime) in the end of the campaign. no mistake.

PS: the assimilation Criminals-Citizens by royal is disgusting.

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PS: the assimilation Criminals-Citizens by royal is disgusting.

What does that mean?

I still haven't decided between Bayrou and Royal.

Royal: "She said the riot was a symptom of the lack of ``mutual confidence'' between citizens and the police"

it's not between citizens and police but between criminals and police. Criminals are not citizens. There deserve a strong punition. And, not only for royal but also for the entire left: stop to say "young people" to design criminals. The majority of young people are honest and respect law and order. Stop amalgam.

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LH2 poll

30-31/03

Besancenot: 5% (+2)
Laguiller: 1% (-1,5)
Bové: 2% (+0,5)
Buffet: 3% (+1)

Royal: 26% (-1)

Voynet: 1% (=)

Bayrou: 18% (-2)

Nihous: 1% (-1)

Sarkozy: 29% (+2)

De Villiers: 1% (-0,5)

Le Pen: 13% (+1)

15% refuse to say


Royal: 49% (+1)
Sarkozy: 51% (-1)

12% refuse to say.

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Royal is going to lose, that's one thing I say in all certainty.

I agree. Royal's going to lose.

15 days before the election and things are like predicted: far right and far left are emerging. 

My completed prediction, realized 10/03:

Schivardi: 0,5%-1
Laguiller: 3,5%-4%
Besancenot: 3%
Buffet: 2,5%-3
Bové: 1,5%-2

10-12% to share between these candidates

Royal: 21-24%
Voynet: 1-2%

Bayrou: 15-17%

Nihous: 1%

Sarkozy: 25%

De villiers: 2-3%

Le Pen: 20-21%

I think that Bayrou will not be at the second turn. I think that this battle will be between Le Pen and Royal. In my opinion, the dynamic is: le pen is rising and Royal is falling.