Atlas 2008 Timeline

[Alcon]

After a tense primary battle, the Atlasian Conservative Alliance (ACA) chose Ryan Noble for their Presidential nominee, an accomplished Wisconsin Senator who had a critical part in passing the successful but controversial Economic Stimulus Bill of 2006.  For his Vice Presidential nominee, Noble chose Kenneth KEmperor, a New York Senator known for his moderate social views and very conservative economics, over a more regular conservative, Senator Phil Innamorato of Pennsylvania.

The Democrats had a fairly uncompetitive primary battle, with well-liked Senator Lucas Longley of Washington State becoming the nominee, and choosing Senator Peter Bell of Indiana as his VP.

On Election Night, the mood was tense, with the latest polls showing:

American Research Group (10/1): Longley 51%, Noble 47%
Gallup (10/1): Noble 49%,  Longley 48%
Rasmussen (10/1): Push
Survey USA (10/1): Longley 50%, Noble 49%
Zogby (10/1): Kerry 35%, Longley 33%, Noble 30%

[Alcon]

6:00 PM EST - Polls in eastern Kentucky and most of Indiana have closed, and while they report a "significant lead" for Senator Noble, none of them call either state.  However, the political community is well aware of what this means, especially in Kentucky, where Senator Longley has a 9-point defecit with the only Democratic areas in the state already reported.

Indiana is a little less clear, with the Democratic stronghold of Lake County (Gary) still yet to report.  However, Senator Noble has a significant enough lead that  most pundits agree that even a showing of 70%+ in Lake County would probably not be enough, despite a victory in Marion County.

Although still not officially called, both Indiana and Kentucky are believed to be in the Noble column.

[Alcon]

7:00 PM EST - With the remaining portions of Indiana and Kentucky reporting, both Indiana and Kentucky fall easily into the Noble column, with the Senator receiving 62% and 63% of the vote in each state, respectively.

Georgia, too, is immediately called for Senator Noble, causing some to suggest that a landslide might be in order, with Noble netting 60% of the Georgian vote and performing better than expected in the Atlanta metro, although Senator Longley made "some progress" in the upper-class Atlanta suburbs.  South Carolina, too, falls in line, delivering 61% of the vote to Noble.  Some begin to suggest that chosing a libertarian like Longley may have significantly impacted the Democrats' performance among black voters.

Vermont, on the other hand, easily falls into the Longley column.

New Hampshire and Virginia both remain uncalled, with polls closing throughout much of Florida and no clear victor there, either.

[Alcon]

7:30 PM EST - With a surprisingly strong turnout of college students in the Raleigh area, Wake County, North Carolina, flips to Longley, becoming one of the few non-suburban southern areas where he has performed better than Kerry in 2004.  Nonetheless, North Carolina is called for Senator Noble early, although with only 58% of the ballots  casted.

West Virginia delivers a victory to Noble with a record-setting 60% of the vote.

New Hampshire and Virginia are finally called, with Longley and Noble receiving 53% respectively.

Florida is joined by Ohio in the "too close to call" column, although rumours circulating the Internet indicate that Senator Noble will take both.

[Alcon]

8:00 EST - The largest cluster of calls for the night, the 8 PM round-up, solidifies speculation of increased regional polarization.  Florida and Ohio remain uncalled, with the outcomes in both Michigan and Pennsylvania also not determined.  However, Internet circulations mention that it is clear that Ohio is "unwinnable for Ohio" and, even though the extreme western part of the state has not been called, some networks call Kansas for Noble, saying it "mathematically impossible" that Longley could win the state, going against usual policy.

Results as a whole are unsurprising, with northeastern states going Longley by even larger-than-normal margins and plains states voting Noble by large margins.

Longley is reported to have won Maine with 54%, ME-1 with 56%, ME-2 with 53%, Massachusetts with 62%, Connecticut with 58%, New Jersey with 55%, Maryland with 56%, and Delaware with 54%.  The District of Columbia gives an underwhelming 85% of the vote to Longley.  Illinois gives Longley a less-than-expected 53%.

On the other hand, Noble wins Oklahoma with 69% of the vote, Texas with 62%, Missouri with 59%, Mississippi with 62%, and Tennessee with 59%.  Alabama goes to Noble with 61% of the vote.

[Alcon]

8:30 PM - Arkansas is called for Noble with 59% of the vote.

Shortly thereafter, it is announced that Noble has officially won Ohio with 52% of the vote after a number of strongly Republican counties report.

FL, MI, and PA remain too close to call.

The remaining networks give in to reality at about 8:45 AM, calling Kansas for Senator Noble with around 64% of the vote.

[Alcon]

9:00 PM - Bad news for the Noble campaign as reports come out of both Michigan and Pennsylvania that strong showings for Longley in the Grand Rapids and suburban Philadelphia area mean it is "unlikely" that he can win.

The second-largest batch of the night is called, with the following outcomes:

Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, And New Mexico are too close to call.

Louisiana has insufficient reporting to call, but is assumed to be a Noble victory.

Nebraska is called for Noble with 67% of the vote.  Congressional district information is not immediately available, and playing it safe, some networks do not call NE-2.  South Dakota also goes Noble, but with only 57% of the vote.  The remaining polls close in the El Paso, Texas, area, but are insufficient ot knock Noble below 60% in the state.  Wyoming gives Noble 65%.

New York is called for Longley with 60% of the vote.  Rhode Island gives him 57%.

Noble's home state of Wisconsin has insufficient reporting statistics, but pundits write it off as an "easy Noble win."



Dan Rather is beginning to spew malapropisms like a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

[Alcon]

10:00 PM - Michigan and Pennsylvania are finally called for Longley, both with 49% of the vote.  Congressional District information for Nebraska reveals that Noble had unsurprising victories of 74%, 62%, and 64%, respectively.  New Mexico is now seen as a very likely win for Noble, with Minnesota "leaning strongly Noble" in early returns.  Arizona and Colorado are surprisingly murky.

Returns in Louisiana finally come in at around 10:05, and the state gives just under 60% of the vote to Noble.

Although polls have not yet closed in Idaho, it is obviously not considered competitive.  North Dakota gives 61% of the vote to Noble.

Iowa and Nevada are considered too close to call, and surprisingly so is Montana.  Utah is called for Noble with 69% of the vote.

Wisconsin is called for Senator Noble with 53%.

News out of Florida says that the state is a "virtual deadlock" with 90% of precincts reporting.

[Alcon]

11:00 PM - The west coast finally reports, with Senator Longley receiving 61% of the vote in his home state of Washington, 55% in neighboring Oregon, and 58% in California.  He also nets 55% in Hawaii.

Montana is called for Senator Noble with a surprising 53%, Utah with 68%, New Mexico with 50%, Minnesota with 49%, and Iowa with 51%.  Reports out of Colorado indicate that Longley may have pulled out an upset, while both Arizona and Florida remain deadlocked.

Nevada is too close to call.  Dan Rather is admitted to Cedars Sinai hospital and is listed in critical condition from dehydration.  Somewhere in upstate New York, John Zogby cries himself to sleep.

[Alcon]

12:00 AM - Reports out of Colorado indicate that Longley's lead is slowly being whittered away.  However, in good news for him, with 98% of Florida precincts reporting, he leads by 1,316 votes and Nevada is called for him with 51% of the vote.

Arizona, too, remains deadlocked.  Not all of Alaska precincts have closed, but the state is strongly suggested to be an easy Noble victory.

Many on the east coast go to sleep without knowing who the President-elect will be.

[Alcon]

1:00 AM - A new day has dawned, but little has changed.  Alaska is called for Senator Noble with 59% of the vote, but Arizona, Colorado, and Florida remain too close to call.

Florida remains, with just short of 99% of precincts reporting, in the Longley column by a decreased margin of 714.

Colorado has returned into the Longley-leaning column, with 92% of precincts reporting and a lead of 516.

With 95% of Arizona precincts reporting, Longley leads by 26 votes.  The remaining precincts are located in Maricopa, Mohave, Santa Cruz, and Yuma counties.

Dan Rather is reported comotose.  CNN viewers in the Miami, Denver, and Phoenix markets report that they "could have sworn" that they saw a big-lettered message reading "RECOUNT" flash for a fraction of a second across their screen.

Noble leads in electoral votes 255-237.

[Alcon]

3:15 AM - With 100% of precincts reporting, but no major voting problems reported, the state of Florida is called for Senator Longley by 2,012 votes.



Recounts are expected.

[Alcon]

4:02 AM - With all precincts reporting, the state of Arizona is called for Senator Noble by a margin of 1,030 votes.  The remaining precincts were a mix of heavily Republican upper-class suburbs and  Native American areas, benefiting Noble narrowly.

Senator Noble now leads Senator Longley by one electoral vote, 265-264, with 99% of Colorado precincts reporting and a lead for Senator Longley with 312 votes.

[Alcon]

12:36 PM - With all precincts reporting in Colorado, the state is finally called for Senator Longley, by a margin of 906 votes.

Senator Noble calls Senator Longley to concede at 3:16 PM that afternoon, announcing that he "will not be seeking a recount, for the sake of the nation."

Senator Lucas Longley of Washington State is the President-elect.

[MasterJedi]

So, so close!

[Cashcow]

If the Democratic Party moves in the right direction this could easily happen in the near future

[Ben Meyers]

I love the election night what-if timelines.  Nice job Alcon

[George W. Hobbes]

Nicely done Alcon...and Hobbes 2012!

[Alcon]

Thanks all.

The final map for reference:



2012 primary soon-ish.

[Ben Meyers]

Florida Governor Ben Meyers has been considering a presidential run. . .

[Platypus]

It's fun to leave it all up to Colorado i9n 2008, isn't it?

[Gabu]

I LOVE YOU COLORADO

You had me kind of worried for a bit there as I was going "oh crap", watching all of these states coming in for Noble with 60+%, and losing Minnesota.

[Colin]

*applause*

Very nice Alcon! I wouldn't mind a President Gabu.

[Peter]

1. I'm a former Governor, not a Senator. In fact, that we are all Senators is just a little odd.
2. Regardless, I have been elected statewide at least once, and probably twice. Whilst I would not say we should win Indiana outright, we would come much closer than a 24 point loss especially as Kerry lost to Bush there by only 20 points.
3. I don't care what happens in real life, but I ALWAYS win Allen County, IN.
4. I would never join a ticket headed by Gabu, plain and simple.

[Alcon]

1. I'm a former Governor, not a Senator. In fact, that we are all Senators is just a little odd.
2. Regardless, I have been elected statewide at least once, and probably twice. Whilst I would not say we should win Indiana outright, we would come much closer than a 24 point loss especially as Kerry lost to Bush there by only 20 points.
3. I don't care what happens in real life, but I ALWAYS win Allen County, IN.
4. I would never join a ticket headed by Gabu, plain and simple.

1. I forgot Governors existed temporarily, so shut up.
2. OK.
3. You winning Allen County would require a miracle.
4. Why not?