Alternate France

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1973 Legislative Elections

The left entered the 1973 elections united under the Common Program. The election also saw the entry of public, scientific opinion polls for the first time. The first polls out in November 1972 showed the PS-PCF-Radicals at 42%, to 58% for the UDR-RI-MDR.

The Common Program was the main issue of the campaign. Its defenders pleaded the necessity to nationalize banks and companies which were in a situation of monopoly. The members of the Presidential Majority denounced a collectivist project and warned against the nomination of Communists in the government if the left won. The MDR tried to express a third way rejecting the Marxism of the left and the euroscepticism of the Gaullists.

The race tightened by January, with the right reduced to 52%. However, both the PS and PCF numbers changed little, never lower than 40% but never above 49%.

Sofres Poll for Le Figaro (February 24, 1973)
UDR-RI 36%
MDR 15%
UNF 3%
Right 54%
PCF 23%
PS-Rad 19%
PSU 4%
Left 46%

Abstention fell to 18% by the first round of voting. In the first round, the UDR-RI won around 32% to 22% to the Communists. The PS did relatively well with 20%, but failed to win more votes than the Communists. The MDR won 17%, the UNF surprised observers with 5% and the PSU took 4%.

UDR 179 (-105)
Independent Republicans 60 (-4)
MDR 54 (+27)
Other right 7 (-2)
UNF 2 (+2)
Right: 302 (-92)
PS-MRG 112 (+55)
PCF 73 (+39)
PSU 3 (+3)
Left: 188 (+97)

While the right still had the absolute majority, the UDR did not have the absolute majority by itself. The MDR had done well, gaining 27 seats since 1968. The Socialists and Communists gained 94 seats in total, while the PSU gained 3 seats, lost in 1968.

The Sofres exit poll showed that the Communists had lost votes among workers compared to 1971, with only 37% of workers voting PCF, compared to 42% in 1971. The Socialists made inroads among employees; the PS was only 4% behind the UDR-RI in that category. Among voters identifying as leftists, the Socialists largely dominated, with 50% to 30% for the Communists. In 1971, it had almost been vice-versa, with Duclos dominating left-leaning voters. On the right, the MDR won only 35% of centrists, with 43% of centrists choosing the UDR-RI. The Socialists did relatively well among centrists too, with 13%. The UDR dominated right-wing voters with 71% and far-right voters with 88%.

Following the elections, Pierre Messmer re-shuffled his cabinet. Among the new faces, Jean Taittinger (UDR) in Justice, Michel Jobert (left-wing Gaullist) in Foreign Affairs, and Robert Galley (UDR) in Defense.

The Messmer Government

Pierre Messmer was a classical and conservative Gaullist. Amongst UDR deputies, he was preferred over Chaban-Delmas. Centrists, however, preferred Chaban-Delmas' progressivism to his conservatism.

The first crisis faced by the new government was the international oil crisis as a result of the Yom Kippur War in the Middle East. The OPEC decided to increase oil prices considerably, but France was not part of the embargo. However, the government saw the energy dependency of France. In December, the Arab nations lowered production and increased prices by 25%, the price of crude oil went from 5,092 $ to 11,651 $.  In March 1974, the government adopted a plan of investments in nuclear technology to end the energetic dependency of France.

In late September, in the cantonal elections, the Presidential Majority (UDR-DVD-RI-MDR-UNF) won, but lost 2% compared to 1970. To the Socialist's deception, they failed to win more votes than the Communists, who remained stagnant at 22%. The PS won 21%.

On March 11 to 13, images of President Pompidou's frail face increased the rumours on his sickness. While the government kept the information secret, Pompidou's facial changes were due to Waldenström macroglobulinemia. On April 2, 1974 Pompidou died in Paris and Alain Poher (MDR) became President by interim once more.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Very Good

Thankfully you've added French Presidential maps. It would be cool if you had some First Round ones though.....

Little use in that, Lecanuet did well in Brittany and Alsace where Pompidou was in the 40%-50% range. Duclos won the 93, Nord, Pas de Calais, and the Somme.

Fair enough. Either way, great to see some French Presidential maps

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1974 Presidential Election

Rumours on Pompidou's health had been circulating since late 1973, and the parties had, in private, started planning for an early vote. As Alain Poher became President on April 2, the parties formally started looking for candidates.

The left, unlike in 1971, was now committed to fielding a common Socialist (and not a Communist) candidate that would rally the left under the Common Program. That candidate, was certain to be Francois Mitterrand, the leader of the new Socialist Party and deputy from the Nièvre department. On April 8, as Valéry Giscard d'Estaing announced his candidacy from Chamalières, the PS, in an extraordinary congress, confirmed the candidacy of Mitterrand. His candidacy received support from unions (CGT, CFDT etc.) and later from the PSU; which had, at one time, toyed around with the idea of a Charles Piaget candidacy. The Left Radicals and the Communists joined the PS in confirming Mitterrand one day later. Mitterrand became the candidate of the "Union of the Left". Even if some Communists had showed their coldness towards the Mitterrand candidacy, the party nonetheless actively joined the campaign.

On April 4, two days after the death of Pompidou, former UDR Prime Minister Jacques Chaban-Delmas declared his candidacy. However, his progressive ideas were far from being accepted by the entire UDR. Pierre Messmer, urged by conservative Gaullists such as Jacques Chirac or
Marie-France Garaud, declared his interest at one time, but on April 10, he dropped out; as did the Minister of Social Affairs, Edgar Faure. Chaban-Delmas won the support of the UDR on April 12. However, the conservative factions of the UDR and its traditionalist ally, the UNF, rallied the candidacy of Chaban-Delmas very reluctantly. Chaban-Delmas received, on April 13, the support of the Progressive Democrats (DP), a strongly pro-government component of the MDR led by Jacques Duhamel, the Minister of Cultural Affairs.

On April 6, Jean Lecanuet announced his intentions not to run for President a third time, leaving the centrist field wide open for Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, leader of the Independent Republicans (RI) and Finance Minister. On April 8, from his hometown of Chamalières in the Puy-de-Dome, Giscard announced his candidacy. On April 9, the RI's 60 deputies endorsed his candidacy unanimously, and on April 11, all MDR (led by Jean Lecanuet) parties except the DP endorsed his candidacy and Lecanuet actively campaigned for him.

Other candidates joined the race for the presidency over the month of April and early May. The first female candidate, Arlette Laguiller, jumped into the race for the far-left Workers Struggle (LO); 70-year old René Dumont ran as the first ecologist candidate ever; Alain Krivine ran for the LCR (Krivine had also been a candidate in 1971); Bertrand Renouvin, the left-wing monarchist; and Guy Héraud, a European federalist candidate. In late April, Jean Royer, the leader of the UNF and Mayor of Tours decided to announce his candidacy, citing the lack of conservative candidates.

Giscard's campaign decided, more or less, to ignore Chaban-Delmas' candidacy and focus on Mitterrand. Instead of using the right's traditional anti-communist tactics against Mitterrand and the left, Giscard focused on the "generational" difference between the two. To the centrist candidate, Mitterrand represented the defunct Fourth Republic and political longevity, while he was the candidate of the people. To emphasize this new image, Giscard was seen playing an instrument, football, or commanding an helicopter. A struggling Chaban-Delmas re-used his government's "New Society" in the election and ran a campaign that distanced itself from traditional Gaullism. He did not stress foreign policy issues, but instead social issues. His candidacy still attracted widespread criticism from the conservative wing of the party, but also from Jean Royer, who painted both Chaban-Delmas and Giscard as socially liberal centrists. In early May, around 40 UDR deputies, including Jacques Chirac, Pierre Juillet, and Marie-France Garaud, joined the presidential campaign of Valéry Giscard d'Estaing. The UDR was now split open, with Chaban-Delmas fighting to keep his poll ratings up.

As to polls, they changed drastically over the course of the campaign. The first Sofres poll in early April showed Chaban-Delmas second, with Giscard 3 points behind him. In late April, a Publimetrie showed him drop to 19%, 10 points behind Giscard (29%) and far behind Mitterrand (42%). Royer and the others had 10%.

Valery Giscard d'Estaing, the RI-MDR candidate

Sofres Poll (April 30, 1971)
Francois Mitterand (PS-PCF-MRG) 36%
Valery Giscard d'Estaing (RI-MDR) 30%
Jacques Chaban-Delmas (UDR) 16%
Jean Royer (UNF) 8%
Rene Dumont (Ecologist) 2%
Arlette Laguiller (LO) 2%
All Others (LCR, NAF, PFE) 1%

[Хahar 🤔]

Go Mitterand!

[Math]

Royer 8%.
It's a joke ?

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Royer 8%.
It's a joke ?

Royer is less of a joke in this timeline.

Remember he was at 9% in my 1971 timeline and got 3%.

In RL, he polled up to 7%.

[Math]

I relly doubt that the beginning of the 70's was a prosperous period for the social conservatives in France.
But why not ! I just hope he will never be President here...

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I relly doubt that the beginning of the 70's was a prosperous period for the social conservatives in France.
But why not ! I just hope he will never be President here...

Polling 7% isn't a lot. You can't say from 8% in polls for a social conservative that the era is automatically prosperous for social conservatism.

[Math]

No, but there is some other evidence of that. Neuwirth and  Veil laws, the total failure of Royer in 74, Chaban and VGE popularity among right-wing electorate...
It will change at the end of the 70's and even more with the election of Mitterand. The UDF was then less and less popular, and the RPR was very conservative on social issues at this time.

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No, but there is some other evidence of that. Neuwirth and  Veil laws, the total failure of Royer in 74, Chaban and VGE popularity among right-wing electorate...
It will change at the end of the 70's and even more with the election of Mitterand. The UDF was then less and less popular, and the RPR was very conservative on social issues at this time.

Remember that this is an alternate history; some things obviously need to be different.

I'd also think Royer's failure was partly due to the joke his candidacy became. He got pissed at a rally at some guys, his wife said some stupid things, the whole girl getting naked in Toulouse, he went cuckoo on porn and abortion etc.
At the start, he was polling 6-7 percent, and dropped to 5, 4, and 3% IIRC. Royer is comparable to de Villiers; localized support (Vendee for de Villiers and Indre-et-Loire for Royer), similar Christian conservative ideas, long-time dominance of local politics in their areas (de Villiers in the department of Vendee, Royer as Mayor of Tours until 1995) etc. Hint... Royer's UNF I created will take a role similar to the LDI/MPF (if that isn't obvious yet).

And once again, I don't count 8% as a big success; and he probably won't get 8% in this story.

[Math]

and he probably won't get 8% in this story.

Well, it will be a great story. I really hat this guy.

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and he probably won't get 8% in this story.

Well, it will be a great story. I really hat this guy.

I personally don't hate him, I find that he's an irrelevant joke. Like de Villiers.

[Хahar 🤔]

Update soon?

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Update soon?

Maybe tonight. I need to update by database with 2002-2007 by-elections first; which isn't an easy task.

If not tonight, tomorrow for sure.

[Хahar 🤔]

Update soon?

Maybe tonight. I need to update by database with 2002-2007 by-elections first; which isn't an easy task.

If not tonight, tomorrow for sure.

Great!

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1974 Presidential Election Results

On Sunday, May 5, 1974, over 30 million voters were called to choose their new president in the first round of voting. The campaign had captivated the minds of  voters and the early  turnout estimates placed abstention at a record low, 15.02% (-6.11% over 1971), after a record high in 1971.

Election Results
Abstention: 15.02%
Voting: 84.98%
Blank and Void: 1.02%

François Mitterrand (PS-PCF-MRG) 42.79%
Valéry Giscard d’Estaing (RI-MDR) 32.13%
Jacques Chaban-Delmas (UDR) 17.02%
Jean Royer (UNF) 4.22%
Arlette Laguiller (LO) 1.98%
René Dumont (Ecologist) 1.01%
Alain Krivine (LCR) 0.39%
Guy Héraud (FED) 0.24%
Bertrand Renouvin (NAR) 0.22%

[Хahar 🤔]

Yay Mitterand!

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Yay Mitterand!

Don't cry victory too early, nothing is decided yet. You have to remember he is the only candidate of the parliamentary left.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yay Mitterand!

Don't cry victory too early, nothing is decided yet. You have to remember he is the only candidate of the parliamentary left.

Well, d'Estaing hasn't been too kind to Chaban-Delmas.

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Analysis of the First Round

Electorates

According to the Sofres vote breakdown, Giscard d'Estaing, like Pompidou in 1971, won among those over 65, but trailed Mitterrand by 24% among those younger than 34. While Mitterrand still won the 35-49 and 49-65,  Giscard d'Estaing trailed by less. Mitterand also won the male and female votes, but Giscard and Chaban-Delmas both did better among females than males.

On an employment basis, Giscard won among farmers, small shopkeepers/artisans, and those in liberal arts. Among those in liberal arts, Chaban did very well, winning 27% of that category, a few points behind Mitterrand. Mitterrand easily won workers with more than 50%, winning most of Duclos' 1971 electorate. He also won among employees and retired/inactive workers.

Mitterrand dominated the vote of those identifying as leftists, winning it 85% to 5% (for Giscard). Mitterand won only 9% of centrists, while Giscard won 56% and Chaban won 26%. Ironically, Giscard did even better among rightists, winning them 58-31 against Chaban-Delmas. Giscard also won far-right voters, with over 60%.

Geography

The significant raw vote difference between Mitterrand and Giscard in the first round gave Mitterrand victory in most departments, from the generally socialist ones to more right-wing ones, where Chaban-Delmas and Giscard split the centre-right vote.



Mitterand won over 50% in numerous southern departments that were generally favourable for the left, such as the Aude or Ariège. He won Provence, but the left lost numerous votes compared to their 1950 levels in those areas, such as the Var. He also did well in the rural Communists areas of Limousin, Allier, and his home department of the Nièvre. Mitterand won the Nord-Pas-de-Calais and the Aisne by large margins, industrial regions where Communists did well. While he was defeated in Paris, he won the eastern suburbs of Seine-Saint-Denis and the Val-de-Marne, two departments also dominated by the PCF.

Giscard's vote reflected very much the traditional Catholic lands that favoured the MRP under the Fourth Republic. Apart from the Socialist holdout in the Côtes du Nord, he won all Breton departments and most departments in the Pays de la Loire. He also won Alsace, another traditionally Catholic region. In his home region of Auvergne and the surrounding departments of Aveyron and Lozère (two other Catholic regions), he benefited also from a favourite son factor, narrowly winning his own department of Puy de Dome.

Chaban-Delmas did well in his home department of Gironde, but failed to win it, even if he did poll over 30%. His support split into the other neighboring departments of Aquitaine, coming in  second in a good number of them.

Royer increased from his 33% in Indre-et-Loire in 1971 to poll 37% and narrowly beat Mitterand (who won 36.5%) for first place. He polled 20% in the neighboring department of Indre and over 7% in a few other departments in the Val de Loire and Pays de la Loire. Elsewhere, he either lost votes compared to 1971 or minimally increased his marginal standing.

Arlette Laguiller's map ironically did not reflect the industrialized working-class departments of the Nord, but instead the rural regions in the Limousin. Dumont did well in the east (Rhône-Alpes, Alsace) and also in Ile-de-France, overall in the better off and richer areas while doing poorly in working-class regions of the North.

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May 5-19, 1974

The day following the runoff, the fourth man of the election, the UNF candidate Jean Royer announced his endorsement of Giscard d'Estaing. Unfortunately for the Mayor of Tours, on May 7, the ambassador of the Soviet Union in Paris, Stephan Tchervonenko stole the headlines after publicly meeting Giscard. Many saw the visit as a public endorsement of Giscard d'Estaing by Moscow after the elimination of Chaban-Delmas (who seemed to be the first choice of Moscow) over Mitterrand, seen as too pro-American to Soviet eyes.

Surprisingly, the next day, the Politburo of the PCF published a communique condemning Moscow's mixing in the campaign. It is noteworthy to say that the PCF and the CPSU had been in a relatively tense period.

Mitterrand also received his lot of endorsements from the far-left or centre-left. On May 7, Arlette Laguiller declared that the "far-left is part of the left", René Dumont announced his personal support for the left-wing candidate, Alain Krivine called on voters to defeat the right, whatever the cost. Counting on a perfect transfer of votes, Mitterrand would have 46.17%; Giscard would have 36.35%. However, Chaban's 17% and the 0.5% for the two fringe candidates were still in play. Chaban's endorsement would play a crucial role, and for the moment, the candidate of the UDR did not seem hot on endorsing either Giscard or Mitterrand. However, Bertrand Renouvin, the monarchist, personally endorsed Mitterrand but the federalist Guy Héraud announced that he would personally vote for Giscard.

On May 10, 25 million voters turned to their televisions for the televised Mitterrand-Giscard debate on the ORTF. The "moderators" Alain Duhamel and Jacqueline Baudrier were only allowed to regulate the candidate's speaking time but did not ask any questions or restrain debate. The topics ranged from the action of the government, of which Giscard was an integral part of, to the Common Program of the left. Mitterrand attacked the government's record, particularly on economic issues (Giscard was Minister of Finances) but Giscard called Mitterrand a "man of the past" and focused too much on the past instead of the future. The memorable phrase of the debate was Giscard's answer to Mitterrand by the phrase Vous n'avez pas le monopole du cœur (You do not have the monopoly of the heart) which allowed Giscard to narrowly win the debate over Mitterrand.

On May 13, Chaban-Delmas finally called a press conference. At first he told journalists he was hostile to Mitterrand's candidacy, without talking about Giscard. However, he finally said, at the end, that he was formally endorsing Giscard d'Estaing for the runoff. The next day, Giscard received the support of the right-wing Radicals of Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber and the CNIP (Giscard's former party before founding the RI). Counting on a perfect transfer, Giscard would have a net advantage with 53.37% of the votes.

Polls indicated otherwise, with the race tied. Interestingly, the transfers were not perfect. The last poll by IFOP showed around 20% of Laguiller voters ready to vote Giscard, and 15% of Chaban's voters ready to vote for Mitterand.

IFOP Runoff Poll (May 17, 1971)
François Mitterrand (PS-PCF-MRG) 50%
Valéry Giscard d’Estaing (RI-MDR-UDR) 50%

[Хahar 🤔]

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May 19, 1974 Part I

On Sunday, May 19, 1974; two weeks after the first round, voters were once again called to the voting booths. The extremely close and captivating runoff opposed the candidate of the united left, François Mitterrand and the centre-right candidate Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, who had received the endorsement of the defeated Gaullist UDR candidate, Jacques Chaban-Delmas.

Giscard feared that right-wing voters, who had abstained at a higher level than those of the left in the first round, would fail to show up. He also feared bad vote transfers from Chaban and Royer voters. 15% of Chaban's electors were, according to a Sofres study, ready to vote for Mitterrand. On the other hand, however, almost 24% of Laguiller's voters were ready to support Giscard.

Lines at polling stations were long, in some cases longer than two weeks before (which had also seen very high turnout). Rumours circulated about abstention falling to barely 10% (or even below, according to some). Some of these rumours were, in fact, almost correct. Only 11.98% abstained, and barely 0.67% had their vote invalidated (over 7% in 1971).

At 20:00, with almost 30 million viewers on La Une and La Deux were awaiting, with anxiety, the 20:00 exit polls.

Less than one second before the exit poll. Who will come out on top?

The exit poll for the Sofres gave Giscard 50.05%, to 49.95% for Mitterrand. With such a spectacular, close finish, the vote in major cities (voting open till 20:00) could alter the results- and possibly in favour of Mitterrand.

[Хahar 🤔]

[Lief 🗽]

This is really interesting. It's nice to see timelines about other countries, and while I'll be the first to admit I'm hardly an expert on French political history, I have been furiously Wikipedia-ing the major players in this TL.