Alternate France

[Hash]

May 5-19, 1974

The day following the runoff, the fourth man of the election, the UNF candidate Jean Royer announced his endorsement of Giscard d'Estaing. Unfortunately for the Mayor of Tours, on May 7, the ambassador of the Soviet Union in Paris, Stephan Tchervonenko stole the headlines after publicly meeting Giscard. Many saw the visit as a public endorsement of Giscard d'Estaing by Moscow after the elimination of Chaban-Delmas (who seemed to be the first choice of Moscow) over Mitterrand, seen as too pro-American to Soviet eyes.

Surprisingly, the next day, the Politburo of the PCF published a communique condemning Moscow's mixing in the campaign. It is noteworthy to say that the PCF and the CPSU had been in a relatively tense period.

Mitterrand also received his lot of endorsements from the far-left or centre-left. On May 7, Arlette Laguiller declared that the "far-left is part of the left", René Dumont announced his personal support for the left-wing candidate, Alain Krivine called on voters to defeat the right, whatever the cost. Counting on a perfect transfer of votes, Mitterrand would have 46.17%; Giscard would have 36.35%. However, Chaban's 17% and the 0.5% for the two fringe candidates were still in play. Chaban's endorsement would play a crucial role, and for the moment, the candidate of the UDR did not seem hot on endorsing either Giscard or Mitterrand. However, Bertrand Renouvin, the monarchist, personally endorsed Mitterrand but the federalist Guy Héraud announced that he would personally vote for Giscard.

On May 10, 25 million voters turned to their televisions for the televised Mitterrand-Giscard debate on the ORTF. The "moderators" Alain Duhamel and Jacqueline Baudrier were only allowed to regulate the candidate's speaking time but did not ask any questions or restrain debate. The topics ranged from the action of the government, of which Giscard was an integral part of, to the Common Program of the left. Mitterrand attacked the government's record, particularly on economic issues (Giscard was Minister of Finances) but Giscard called Mitterrand a "man of the past" and focused too much on the past instead of the future. The memorable phrase of the debate was Giscard's answer to Mitterrand by the phrase Vous n'avez pas le monopole du cœur (You do not have the monopoly of the heart) which allowed Giscard to narrowly win the debate over Mitterrand.

On May 13, Chaban-Delmas finally called a press conference. At first he told journalists he was hostile to Mitterrand's candidacy, without talking about Giscard. However, he finally said, at the end, that he was formally endorsing Giscard d'Estaing for the runoff. The next day, Giscard received the support of the right-wing Radicals of Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber and the CNIP (Giscard's former party before founding the RI). Counting on a perfect transfer, Giscard would have a net advantage with 53.37% of the votes.

Polls indicated otherwise, with the race tied. Interestingly, the transfers were not perfect. The last poll by IFOP showed around 20% of Laguiller voters ready to vote Giscard, and 15% of Chaban's voters ready to vote for Mitterand.

IFOP Runoff Poll (May 17, 1971)
François Mitterrand (PS-PCF-MRG) 50%
Valéry Giscard d’Estaing (RI-MDR-UDR) 50%

[Hash]

May 19, 1974 Part I

On Sunday, May 19, 1974; two weeks after the first round, voters were once again called to the voting booths. The extremely close and captivating runoff opposed the candidate of the united left, François Mitterrand and the centre-right candidate Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, who had received the endorsement of the defeated Gaullist UDR candidate, Jacques Chaban-Delmas.

Giscard feared that right-wing voters, who had abstained at a higher level than those of the left in the first round, would fail to show up. He also feared bad vote transfers from Chaban and Royer voters. 15% of Chaban's electors were, according to a Sofres study, ready to vote for Mitterrand. On the other hand, however, almost 24% of Laguiller's voters were ready to support Giscard.

Lines at polling stations were long, in some cases longer than two weeks before (which had also seen very high turnout). Rumours circulated about abstention falling to barely 10% (or even below, according to some). Some of these rumours were, in fact, almost correct. Only 11.98% abstained, and barely 0.67% had their vote invalidated (over 7% in 1971).

At 20:00, with almost 30 million viewers on La Une and La Deux were awaiting, with anxiety, the 20:00 exit polls.

Less than one second before the exit poll. Who will come out on top?

The exit poll for the Sofres gave Giscard 50.05%, to 49.95% for Mitterrand. With such a spectacular, close finish, the vote in major cities (voting open till 20:00) could alter the results- and possibly in favour of Mitterrand.

[Hash]

This is really interesting. It's nice to see timelines about other countries, and while I'll be the first to admit I'm hardly an expert on French political history, I have been furiously Wikipedia-ing the major players in this TL.

Thank you

[Hash]

1974 Presidential Election Runoff Results

Never had a presidential been so close... and never had the exit polls been threatened to be inaccurate by actual vote totals. At 20:00, in front of supporters mixed between celebration and anxiety at the Giscard headquarters, Michel d'Ornano, the top campaign manager, urged supporters to wait until results had come in from major cities.

However, with the results coming in from Paris and neighbouring departments, it was clear that Giscard had narrowly pulled off a victory. Despite sweeping Marseille, Mitterand had lost by a large margin in the city of Paris and Lyon, and had narrowly lost in departments such as the Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-et-Marne. 

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, candidate of the Independent Republicans, had been elected the third President of the French Republic, defeating the candidate of the Union of the Left, François Mitterrand, who had lost by 0.22%.

Results of the Second Round:
Abstention: 11.98%
Voting: 88.02%
Blank and Void: 0.67%

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (RI-MDR-UDR) 50.11%
François Mitterrand (PS-PCF-MRG) 49.89%



The electorates of Mitterrand and Giscard represented two opposites. Mitterrand had handily won the younger vote, but the older vote had gone heavily for Giscard, especially seniors. Regular church-attending Catholics gave 80% to Giscard. In fact, Giscard took over 55% in traditionally christian democratic departments such as Ille-et-Vilaine, Manche, Bas/Haut Rhin, Cantal, Haute-Loire, and other departments in the Pays de la Loire. However, atheists gave 84% to Mitterrand. Mitterrand also won the votes of 73% of non-religious Catholics and 55% of those of another religion. Both candidates split the vote of non-regular church-attending Catholics, which was narrowly won by Mitterrand 52-48. Women voted for Giscard 53-47, but men favoured Mitterrand by a similar margin.

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, elected third President of the Fifth French Republic on May 19, 1974 with 50.11%

Giscard needed not to worry in the end about Chaban's and Royer's voters, which voted for him with 81% and 79% respectively. Vote transfers from Laguiller and Krivine to Mitterrand were, on the other hand, less than perfect for the candidate of the left.

On May 24, the Ministry of the Interior officialized the results and the election of Valéry Giscard d'Estaing to the top job. On May 27, 1974; Giscard was to be sworn in, along with his new Prime Minister...


Michel Poniatowski, Jacques Chirac, Michel d'Ornano... Who?

[Hash]

The Giscard Presidency: 1974-1975

On May 27, 1974; Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, 48 years old, was officially sworn in as President of the French Republic at the Elysée.

Lengthy negotiations between the UDR, RI, MDR and the Radicals had taken place since Giscard's victory on the night on the 19^th of May. According to the rumour spreaders, two candidates were disputing the post of Prime Minister: Jacques Chirac (UDR), the 42-year old rising-star of the Gaullist movement and Michel Poniatowski (RI), a confident and close collaborator of Giscard.

Michel Poniatowski was finally chosen as Prime Minister, to the discontent of Jacques Chirac and many of Giscard's UDR supporters. However, Chirac was named Minister of the Interior, and Minister of State (and thus, the second-in-command).

Major cabinet posts, as of May 28, 1974:

Prime Minister: Michel Poniatowski (RI)
Minister of State, and Minister of the Interior: Jacques Chirac (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Justice: Jean Lecanuet (MDR)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Jean Sauvagnargues (Ind)
Minister of Economy and Finances: Jean-Pierre Fourcade (RI)
Minister of National Education: René Haby (RI)
Minister of Equipment, Housing, and Development: Olivier Guichard (UDR)
Minister of Cultural Affairs: Robert Galley (UDR)
Minister of Agriculture: Christian Bonnet (RI)
Minister of Industry: Michel d'Ornano (RI)

Other cabinet ministers included Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber (Radical) in Governmental Reform, Michel Durafour (MDR) in Labour, Simone Veil (Ind) in Health, Vincent Ansquer (UDR) in Commerce, and Olivier Stirn (UDR) in DOM-TOM Affairs.

Michel Poniatowski, Prime Minister

Elected on the theme of change and modernization, the first year of Giscard's presidency was marked by large-scale reforms. Under the Poniatowski ministry, various liberal-minded economic reforms were introduced. Among them, an anti-inflation crusade, and and budgetary savings.

The government experienced its first shaking on June 9, when the Radical Minister of Reforms, Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber, resigned over disagreements about the continuation of nuclear tests.

On July 5, the parliament adopted the law lowering the age of maturity from 21 to 18. This law became the first major social reform of Giscard's presidency. The same day, the new Secretary of State for Foreign Workers, Paul Dijoud (RI), decided to suspend the immigration of non-European foreign workers.

On September 22, indirect Senatorial election to renew a third of seats, those elected in 1965, were held.

RI 57 (-2)
PS-PSU 51 (+8)
UCDP 50 (+4)
UDR 40 (-6)
Democratic Left 35 (-)
PCF 24 (+1)
RIAS¹ 15 (-1)
Non-affiliated 10 (-3)
UNF 1 (-1)

In October, the PSU imploded at the pleasure of Mitterrand's Socialist Party. Michel Rocard and his followers joined the PS, while another faction joined a Marxist-Leninist fringe party. However, a small faction led by Huguette Bouchardeau continued a smaller, fringe PSU.

On December 4, the second Neuwirth Law was passed, opening the access of the contraceptive pill (legalized in 1967 by the first Neuwirth Law) to minors without parental consent and reimbursed by the social security. Jean Royer, the leader of the UNF and Mayor of Tours led a very vocal opposition to the law, but the final blow was to come to his social conservatism.

On January 17, the Veil law, proposed by the Minister of Health, Simone Veil (a former Auschwitz detainee), was passed, legalizing abortion. Jean Royer tried desperately to rally anti-abortion activists and other social conservatives, and threatened to end the UNF's support of the parliamentary centre-right.

On January 6, after the ORTF's implosion in December 1974, the ORTF was divided into Radio-France, the INA, SFP and the TV channels TF1, Antenne 2, FR3-Regions, and TDF. In response to the after-effects of the oil crisis, President Giscard d'Estaing announced a plan to "help the economy" and specifically businesses suffering of the follow-up to the oil crisis.

1975 was also marked by other social reforms, among them the law facilitating divorce by mutual consent, a law of 'orientation' in favour of handicapped persons, and the Haby law on secondary education ("unique high school", education of regional languages).

The government's second major crisis came with the Aleria affair, in Corsica, where Michel Poniatowski and Jacques Chirac ordered the intervention of the police to break up a nationalist cell led by Edmond Siméoni. As a result of the action, 2 gendarmes were killed. The Socialists and Communists blamed Chirac and Poniatowski for the use of force in the affair.

On November 23, the first ever G6 summit was held in Rambouillet, France under the leadership of Giscard d'Estaing. In attendance were Gerald Ford (US), Helmut Schmidt (Germany), Aldo Moro (Italy), Takeo Miki (Japan), and Harold Wilson of the United Kingdom.

The year ended with a bad note for the Minister of Labour, Michel Durafour (MDR), with the number of unemployed breaking the symbolic million.

¹ Independent Republicans of Social Action (RIAS): Successor group to the CRARS. Composed primarily of CNIP and some RI Senators.

[Hash]

The Giscard Presidency: 1976-1977

The year 1976 started with the government shuffle on early January, marked by the entry of new ministers and the departure of others. Among major changes, Jean Lecanuet (MDR), Minister of Justice, became in addition a Minister of State (along with Jacques Chirac). However, the cabinet shuffle, was overshadowed by the obvious political differences between Chirac and Giscard.

On February 8th, at its 22nd Congress, the Communist Party, under the leadership of Georges Marchais, renounced to its idea of a "dictatorship of the proletariat", continuing the trend of the PCF to the parliamentary left (the Socialist Party) as opposed to being an independent left-wing opposition party.

The parliamentary left won anmportant victory on March 7 and 14, when the Socialists and Communists won the cantonal elections. The total vote for the left (PS-PCF-MRG-DVG) was 56.3%, compared to 49.9% in 1971. The Socialists largely overtook the Communists as top vote-getters, winning 27.5% to the PCF's 22.9%. Left Radicals won 2.3% and miscellaneous left candidates won 3.6%. In addition, the left gained the control of 15 departments.

On April 29, two years after decreeing "zero immigration", the decree was changed, allowing family reunification.

In late May, at the congress of the Movement of Reformers (MDR), two component parties- Lecanuet's CD and the DP (whose membership favoured Chaban-Delmas in 1974) merged to formed the Centre des démocrates sociaux (Social and Democratic Centre, or CDS). The Radicals, the only other major component party of the MDR, remained outside of the CDS. The MDR movement ended, and was effectively replaced by the CDS.

In early August, with relations between Giscard and Chirac becoming terrible, Chirac resigned as Minister of the Interior. Olivier Guichard, another UDR, replaced Chirac as Minister of the Interior and became number two of the Poniatowski government. However, the unhealthy relationship had divided the UDR and the Giscardian RI.

On November 5, Chirac, eager to take control of the UDR, created the the Rassemblement pour la République (RPR) to succeed the UDR, which dissolved into Chirac's new political machine.

Jacques Chirac at an early meeting of the RPR

On December 24, Jean de Broglie, an RI deputy, was assassinated. Olivier Guichard and Poniatowski laid the blame on Patrick de Ribemont, who was finally found not guilty. France, however, was found guilty by the European Human Rights Court and forced to pay back Ribemont. The opposition called for the resignation of Guichard and Poniatowski, who saw his approval dwindle a few months ahead of the March 1977 local elections.

The new year, 1977, started with the inauguration of the Georges Pompidou (Beaubourg) centre in Paris, an art gallery, by the President and Prime Minister, who took the opportunity to remember the former President.

The good times ended on March 13 and 20, when the left won a huge landslide in the local elections. The Socialists gained Angers, Brest, La Roche-sur-Yon, Cherbourg, Meaux, Chartres by the first round. The PCF gained Reims and Saint-Quentin by the first round. In the runoff, the PS won Chambery, Poitiers, Montpellier, Nantes, Rennes, Saint-Malo, and Angoulème. In Le Mans, Saint-Etienne, and Bourges, the PCF won. In the first ever elections to elect a Mayor of Paris, Jacques Chirac (RPR) defeated the left, but, most notably, Michel d'Ornano, the RI candidate.

On May 19, the Independent Republicans became the Republican Party (PR), possibly the first step in the fulfillment of Giscard's hope for a united liberal-christian democratic centre, expressed in his 1976 essay Démocratie française.

On June 27, Djibouti, or the French Territory of the Afars and the Issas obtained their independence, after voting 98% in favour of it a month earlier in a referendum.

On September 25, indirect Senatorial election to renew a third of seats, those elected in 1968, were held. The Socialists won an important victory, picking up 11 seats. The Radical group split between the Democratic Left (right Radicals) and a MRG group.

PS 62 (+11)
UCDP 59 (+9)
RI 52 (-5)
RPR 35 (-5)
Democratic Left 25 (-10)
PCF 23 (-1)
RIAS 17 (+2)
MRG 11 (+11)
Non-affiliated 10 (-)
UNF 1 (-)

In October, the parliament passed a law protecting private citizens in the wake of modern technology.

[Hash]

1978 Legislative Elections

The defeat of the majority in the 1977 locals worried the right. The outlook for the 1978 legislative elections were not rosy. The thoughts of a Socialist Prime Minister, likely Mitterrand, in opposition to a centre-right President, became common in January 1978.

However, the left shot themselves in the foot. With the situation between the PCF and the PS being very tense, and Georges Marchais calling for a revision of the Common Programme of the left, divisions were clear in the Union of the Left. On December 28, the United Left became the disunited left. Mitterrand, on his part, was committed to place first, before the PCF in the legislative elections. The PS began a not-so-clean attack on the PCF.

On February 1, under the direction of Jean Lecanuet (CDS) and Jean-Pierre Soisson (PR), the Republican Party joined with the United Centre and the Radicals to form the UDF, Union pour la démocratie française. The UDF would be a confederation of independent parties, that would nonetheless sit as one group in the National Assembly. After the left, the right, it was now the centre's turn to unite.

With polls indicating that a Socialist Prime Minister was likely, the RPR, but mostly the UDF, warned voters of the Common Programme and Communist cabinet ministers, but also of the potential disasters of cohabitation with the left, something never seen before.

Sofres Poll (February 21, 1978)
PS-MRG 30%
PCF 21%
EXG-PSU 3%
Left 54%
RPR 20%
UDF 18%
UNF-DVD 5%
Right 43%
Ecologists 2%
Others-FN 1%

Down the poll results, two other questions produced interesting results. Firstly, when asked to prognosticate the victor, respondents were split: 40% said the right would win, 40% said the left would win, and 20% did not know. When asked who they wanted to win, respondents once again split evenly: 45% wanted the victory of the majority, 45% wanted the victory of the left, and 10% did not know.

Sofres Poll (March 9, 1978)
PS-MRG 29% (-1)
PCF 21.5% (+0.5)
EXG-PSU 2.5% (-0.5)
Left 53% (-1)
RPR 20% (=)
UDF 19% (+1)
UNF-DVD 3% (-2)
Right 42% (-1)
Ecologists 3% (+1)
Others-FN 2% (+1)

When asked who would win, 40% prognosticated the left, 35% said the majority, and 25% were unsure. However, only 43% wanted the victory of the left, with the other 43% wanting the right to win. 14% did not know.

[Hash]

Firstly just a question about French Politics in General. This might sound like a stupid question to you but I'd thought I'd ask it. What is the difference between President and Prime Minister in France?

In normal cases ('normal' doesn't apply to Sarkozy oc):

President: head of state; takes care of foreign policy (and in Sarkozy's case, attend the funerals of everybody). Promulgates laws, names PM (but can't fire him), C-i-C of the armies, grant pardons, dissolve Assembly, name other officials etc.
PM: head of government; takes care on interal stuff/unpopular social policy.

Looking forward to the upcoming 1981 Presidential Election, any ideas on potential candidates? Will Chirac and Le Pen run?

Wait and see

[Hash]

1978 Legislative Elections

Giscard had reason to be worried. The total PS-PCF had around 50 to 52% in polls, or up to 54-55 if the PSU was included. The right, already divided between the pro-Giscard UDF and the Giscard-critical RPR, was badly trailing in polls and the idea of a Socialist Prime Minister in opposition to a centre-right President was often discussed.

The campaign had interested voters, and abstention fell 2% compared to 1976: down to approximately 16% in the runoff (15% in the first round). Rumours started to fly by 19:00 that the Socialists had won, big according to some. For others, the right had squeaked out a narrow victory.

In fact, to the general surprise, voters had given the right a narrow victory. The RPR came first in terms of votes by a matter of a mere thousand votes (23%), the PS closely behind (23%). The UDF was in third, with 20%, barely in front of the PCF (20%). All small parties were far behind. The UNF and DVD had around 6%, the PSU and the far-left had 3%, the ecologists had done well (3%) and other parties, including the far-right FN did poorly (2%).

RPR 142 (-37)¹
UDF 129 (+15)²
Other right 6 (-1)
UNF 2 (-)
Right: 279 (-23)
PS 111 (-1)
PCF 89 (+16)
MRG 11 (+11)
PSU 1 (-2)
Left: 212 (+24)

¹ Compared to the 1973 result of the UDR
² Compared to the 1973 combined results of the RI and MDR

According to the Sofres exit poll, the Socialists had made big inroads among workers, who gave only 36% of their vote to the PCF and 29% to the PS-MRG. In other categories, the Socialists had also made large gains- amongst the most surprising, it took 26% with those 65+, 30% and a victory amongst employees (20% RPR, 13% UDF). With the youngest voters, which still voted Communist, the Socialists were now only 3% behind them.

With his popularity at a low and the Broglie affair making waves again, Michel Poniatowski tendered his resignation as Prime Minister.

[Hash]

-47 seats total? Why?

Thanks for catching, t'was supposed to be +24, not -24 oc.

[Hash]

The Barre Government

After Poniatowski's resignation, the parliamentary majority agreed on the nomination of the independent centrist Raymond Barre, who was in the best position to rally the UDF and RPR, as Prime Minister until the 1981 presidential elections, at the least. His new government resembled the post-Chirac Poniatowski cabinet, with most Ministers remaining in their posts.

Major cabinet posts, as of March 31, 1978:

Prime Minister: Raymond Barre (UDF)
Minister of the Interior: Christian Bonnet (UDF-PR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Justice: Alain Peyrefitte (RPR)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Jean-François Poncet (UDF-Radical)
Minister of National Defense: Yvon Bourges (RPR)
Minister of National Education: Joël Le Theule (RPR)
Minister of Economy and Finances: René Monory (UDF-CDS)
Minister of the Budget: Maurice Papon (RPR)
Minister of Agriculture: Pierre Méhaignerie (UDF-CDS)
Minister of Co-operation: Robert Galley (RPR)
Minister of Industry: André Giraud (RPR)

Other cabinet ministers included Michel d'Ornano (UDF-PR) in Environment, Simone Veil (UDF) in Health, Jean-Pierre Soisson (UDF-PR) in Youth and Sports, and Jacques Barrot (UDF-CDS) in Commerce.

The RPR continued its governmental participation, despite tensions between the UDF and the RPR. In fact, in December 1978, Jacques Chirac had broadcast the Appel de Cochin calling the UDF the parti de l'étranger (the foreign party), a remark aimed at the UDF's pro-European policies. This came months before the 1979 European elections, the first to be held under direct universal suffrage.

On March 18 and 25, the left won the cantonal elections, again, and picked up 9 additional presidencies while losing 1, a net gain of +8. However, public attention was focused on the European campaign. The major lists in competition were the PS-MRG list (Mitterrand), the UDF list (Veil), the RPR-UNF list (Chirac), the PCF list (Marchais), and other lists. Despite it being a European elections, the motivations of many voters were based on French economic and social factors, not issues of European construction.

Interest for the campaign grew from April (48% interest) to May (54% interest). In opinion polls, the race was close between the PS-MRG list and the UDF list, the PCF in third with the RPR badly trailing in fourth with about 18%.

On election day, June 10th, 61% of voters turned out to vote. According to exit polls, most of the voters who hadn't voted were Socialist or Communist. This led to the victory of the UDF list, which took 26.9% against 24.2% for the PS-MRG. Marchais' Communists took a disappointing 20.9%, while the RPR was badly defeated with only 16.2%. Ecologists took a distant fifth with around 4%. Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber's UDF dissident (Radical) list was also badly defeated, with less than 2%.

The composition of the French delegation to the European parliament:

UDF 24
PS-MRG 23
PCF 20
RPR 14

The rest of 1979 was tough for Giscard. In October the satirical newspaper Le Canard enchaîné revealed the Bokassa diamonds affair, directly involving the President. Giscard's response to the scandal was feeble, unlike the fiery responses from the seats of the opposition.

In July 1980, the minimum wage was raised by over 2%, but the 2% raise was little in comparison to the important rise in food and commodity prices. Public transportation and train passes also increased importantly that month.

On September 28, indirect Senatorial election to renew a third of seats, those elected in 1971, were held. The two major UDF factions, the CDS and the Republicans continued to sit in different groups.

PS 70 (+8)
UCDP 65 (+6)
UREI¹ 52 (=)
RPR 42 (+7)
Democratic Left 26 (+1)
PCF 23 (=)
MRG 12 (+1)
Non-affiliated 13 (+3)
UNF 2 (+1)

¹ Union of Republicans and Independents (UREI): Name adopted by the group composed primarily of UDF-PR and other liberal Senators.


Next: Campaign '81! Are we ready?

[Hash]

1981 Presidential Election

The 1981 election, scheduled for April 26 and May 10, 1981 was extremely uncertain. The economic situation, various financial scandals, a new found strength on the left, the new RPR and its ambitious young leader, Jacques Chirac, seriously handicapped Giscard, who wasn't, however, dead just yet.

The new centrist union, the UDF, had held its first congress in Paris in 1981, where UDF members confirmed Valéry Giscard d'Estaing as the 1981 presidential candidate.

For the RPR, which had obtained a deceiving result in the 1979 EU election after coming out on top of the presidential majority in the 1978 elections, the party chose its President and the Mayor of Paris, Jacques Chirac as its candidate. However, his candidacy was contested by his former councillor, Marie-France Garaud, a conservative right-wing Gaullist. Former UDR Prime Minister Michel Debré, who threw his name into the hat for the election. The 1971 and 1974 UNF candidate and Mayor of Tours, Jean Royer, declined to run for a third time and insisted that he supported no candidate of the right.

After the breakup of the Common Programme between the PS, PCF, and MRG, the left was not united behind Mitterrand as it had been in 1974. Even Mitterrand's own leadership had been contested at the Metz Congress by the former PSU leader Michel Rocard, who still thought of a candidacy in his own right. With Mitterrand's intentions still unsure, Jean-Pierre Chevènement of the CERES (a faction of the PS) put his name in that hat for the nomination, on condition that Mitterrand did not run.

The leader of the Communist Party, Georges Marchais, announced his candidacy under slogans including "The Anti-Giscard candidate". The other party of the Common Programme, the Left Radicals nominated the Mayor of La Rochelle, Michel Crépeau. The remaining faction of the PSU nominated Huguette Bouchardeau for president. Brice Lalonde became the ecologist candidate for the presidency, running for a coalition of small ecologist groups known as the MEP¹.

On the far-left, Alain Krivine thought of a new candidacy for the LCR, but with bad poll numbers and his failure to pick up 500 endorsements, Arlette Laguiller of LO became the sole candidate of the far-left.

On October 10, 1980 the popular humourist Coluche (Michel Colucci) announced his candidacy, loyal to his traditional humour. He called on drug-addicts, homosexuals, seniors, Arabs, black, prostitutes, insane people, and communists, among others, to support his candidacy and to "shove it up their asses with Coluche".

Announcement of the Coluche candidacy in October 1980

His candidacy soon attracts an alarming 10% to 16% of support and third place in opinion polls for numerous papers.

In January 1981 at the Creteil Congress, Mitterrand was chosen as the candidate of the Socialist Party with full support and no other candidacies. His program was titled 110 Propositions for France, with many ideas from the Common Programme. His candidacy received the support of the 1974 royalist candidate Bertrand Renouvin, who declined to run again. Mitterrand trailed Giscard in polls for both rounds.


¹ Movement of Political Ecology (MEP) is an alliance grouping various small ecologist and green parties.

[Hash]

1981 Presidential Election: The Campaign

The 1981 campaign, which had started in the favour of Giscard soon turned against him. His poll numbers slid, his approval ratings went into the red for the first time.

The RPR candidate, Jacques Chirac, imitated the newly-elected American President Ronald Reagan. His main theme was to lower taxes. However, his poll numbers were very low, with only 10 or 11% of voting intentions.

Mitterrand too, lagged far behind Giscard in polls, with Georges Marchais closely trailing him, with a potential for a Giscard-Marchais runoff. However, after the Creteil Congress and his official nomination, Mitterrand surpassed the symbolic 20% bar and widened his lead over his Communist rival. In February, the Sofres poll had him on 25%, trailing Giscard, who had 27%. Marchais had 18%, and Chirac had only 13%.

The Sofres did not poll the Coluche candidacy, which had started worrying Giscard and Mitterrand. Giscard didn't want Coluche to bring up the Central-African diamond affair scandal to the spotlight and Mitterrand saw Coluche as a threat for his election to the Presidency. Giscard had the state media boycott Coluche to limit his press time. The three state channels and Radio France ignored his candidacy. Giscard also turned to illegal actions: he had the Ministry of the Interior investigate Coluche's past for a scandal, with little turning up. Far-right groups and other anonymous letters threatened his life.

On April 16, the deadline for the 500 endorsements fell. Coluche, who had boasted over 500 endorsements a week prior, obtained only 9. Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Front National (FN) leader, failed to run, due to another failed candidacy from the PFN (Parti des forces nouvelles) leader Pascal Gauchon. Michel Jobert, a left-wing Gaullist, former cabinet minister, and founder of the Jobertist movement also failed to meet the requirements.

The first Sofres poll after the deadline showed Giscard far ahead of Mitterrand.

Sofres Poll for Le Figaro (April 16, 1981)
Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (UDF) 28%
François Mitterrand (PS) 22%
Georges Marchais (PCF) 19.5%
Jacques Chirac (RPR) 18.5%
Brice Lalonde (MEP) 4%
Michel Crépeau (MRG) 2%
Arlette Laguiller (LO) 1.5%
Michel Debré (DVD) 1.5%
Marie-France Garaud (DVD) 1.5%
Huguette Bouchardeau (PSU) 1.5%

Chirac received a net boost, from 15% in the preceding poll. He still trailed fourth, but his difference with Marchais got smaller. He distanced two dissidents from the RPR, Debré and Garaud, who polled only crumbs.

Mitterrand urged Socialist voters to turn out en-masse in the first round and the runoff. Socialist electors had shown in past elections their lack of motivation and lower turnout than UDF-RPR voters.

The first round was scheduled for April 26, 1981. The last poll, on the 24th, was almost identical to the above-mentioned poll, with only little changes within the MoE.


First round next.

[Hash]

It'd be interesting to see Marchais get into the second round.

Giscard President 1974-1988.

[Hash]

Bump

I had a reply, but then Firefox ed up with it. Tomorrow, if I have time.

[Hash]

1981 Presidential Election Results

On Sunday, April 26, 1981, over 36 million voters were called to choose between ten candidates in the first round of the 1981 presidential election. The top two candidates were the same than in 1974, Giscard (UDF) and Mitterrand (PS). Voters had been interested by the late campaign, but less so than in 1974. First estimates of voter abstention at 20:00 placed it at 18% (+2.98% on 1974), higher than in 1974 but still relatively low.

Election Results
Abstention: 17.85%
Voting: 82.15%
Blank and Void: 0.98%

Valéry Giscard d’Estaing (UDF) 28.64%
François Mitterrand (PS) 22.34%
Georges Marchais (PCF) 19.53%
Jacques Chirac (RPR) 18.33%
Brice Lalonde (MEP) 4.31%
Arlette Laguiller (LO) 1.85%
Michel Crépeau (MRG) 1.52%
Michel Debré (DVD) 1.42%
Marie-France Garaud (DVD) 1.23%
Huguette Bouchardeau (PSU) 0.83%

The first round presented a favourable scenario for the left, Mitterrand in particular. Mitterrand, Marchais, and Crépeau obtained a total of 43.39% of the votes, up from Mitterrand's 42.79% in 1974, when he stood as the PS-PCF-MRG candidate. Giscard, despite getting first place, lost votes (a bit more than 3%) from his 1974 result of 32.13%. Chirac finished an honourable fourth with 18.33%, still a strong result to play a role in the close runoff. Lalonde obtained over 3% more than Dumont, the ecologist candidate in 1974. Michel Debré and Marie-France Garaud, the so-called "true Gaullist" candidates in the race, obtained a total of 2.65%, crumbs. Without the support of any party, their dissident candidacy against Chirac had failed and Chirac prevailed as the candidate of the Gaullist right.


Analysis of the First Round

Electorates

According to the Sofres vote breakdown by age, Giscard won the seniors vote, with 47% of those voters by the first round, Mitterrand being a distant second. At the other extremity, Marchais won those 18 to 24, with 27% against 23% for Mitterrand and Giscard. Lalonde did well with those voters too, taking 12%. For Marchais, the younger the voters, the more votes. For Chirac, those 50 to 64 were his best, taking 23% among those voters.

On an employment basis, Giscard won among farmers, small shopkeepers/artisans, and retired/inactive workers. Among those in liberal arts, Chirac did well, winning them with 34%. With the PCF in the race, the close PS-PCF race for the worker's vote continued. Marchais won, narrowly, 30-28 against Mitterrand, Giscard trailing with only 19%.

Marchais won the far-left, with 55%, but lost left-wing voters to Mitterrand 53-24. Centrist voters didn't go heavily for the candidate of the UDF, only 39% of centrists preferred him. Chirac won 29%. Mitterrand won 16% of centrists. However, Giscard won right-wing voters against Chirac, taking 60% against only 31% for Chirac. Giscard also won far-right voters and independents.

Geography

As in 1974, where Giscard and Chaban split the right-wing vote, in 1981 Mitterrand and Marchais split the left-wing vote.



Giscard did best in the traditional centrist regions, as in 1974. Apart from the Socialist holdout in the Côtes du Nord, he won all Breton departments and all departments in the Pays de la Loire. He also won Alsace, another traditionally centrist region. In his home region of Auvergne and the surrounding departments of Aveyron and Lozère (two other Catholic regions), he benefited also from a favourite son factor again, winning his own department of Puy de Dome. From 1974, he won the departments of central of France where Mitterrand had won (on Giscard-Chaban divisions) in 1974, the Rhone-Alpes departments around Lyon and did well in the conservative departments of Lorraine and Champagne. In the Nord and Picardie, he won based on the strong showings obtained by Marchais there.

Mitterand, after winning many departments in the first round of 1974, was reduced to only the most Socialist departments of the Radical south-west and other areas. He won his home department of the Nièvre.

Marchais split the left-wing vote with Mitterrand in most departments. He himself won five departments, all reliably Communist areas. He won the eastern suburbs of Paris, composed of Seine-Saint-Denis and his home department of the Val-de-Marne. He won the Allier, a rural region where the PCF dominated politics. In the Bouches-du-Rhone, the Communist areas of northern Marseille, the Marseille suburbs, and Arles carried him to victory. In the neighboring Gard, the Communist departmental capital, Nimes got him a narrow victory over Mitterrand.

Chirac also won five departments, despite polling minimally better than Chaban had done in 1974. However, he had a very strong base in two areas. In Paris, the city where he was the Mayor since 1977, he had a big advantage and won the city. In his home department of the Corrèze, where he was well known, he won too, by a large margin. His name recognition in Corrèze carried over into the conservative Cantal (the department of Pompidou), but also in the Creuse, where Marchais had come in second (with Mitterrand still getting a strong showing).

[Hash]

Debate + all the pre-runoff dealings coming tonight.

[Hash]

I finish early today, so I'll update this then.

[Hash]

April 27-May 9, 1981

Mitterrand came out of the runoff with a narrow advantage over the incumbent Giscard d'Estaing. The third man of the election, the Communist Georges Marchais immediately threw his support behind Mitterrand, calling on his voters to defeat Giscard.

In addition, Giscard had seen his popularity drop below 50% for the first time in January 1981. Mitterrand and the Socialist Party enjoyed high approval and favourability ratings. Mitterrand had the upper hand, even in polls.

Sofres Poll (April 29, 1981)
François Mitterrand (PS) 52%
Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (UDF) 48%

However, Giscard was not dead. Chirac was still holding out his decisive endorsement and undecideds remained high. However, in the first round, the highest percentage of abstentions came from the ranks of the PS and PCF. Mitterrand needed those voters to come out for him.

On May 5, 1981, the presidential debate between Giscard and Mitterrand was held, with Jean Boissonnat and Michèle Cotta as moderators. The debate was a revenge for Mitterrand, whose defeat in the 1974 debate tilted the election to Giscard, very narrowly (50.11%). Mitterrand took his revenge well. He called Giscard "the man of the past" and attacked him on rising consumer prices, unemployment, and inflation. Mitterrand was seen to have won the debate.

The next day, Jacques Chirac, who had come in fourth in the first round with 18.33% announced, with little enthusiasm, that he would "personally" vote for Giscard. Many Chirac voters, according to polls, were ready to vote for Mitterrand or abstain, the worst scenario possible for Giscard. In addition, Brice Lalonde (MEP candidate who took 4.31%) announced his personal support for Mitterrand. His voters, according to polls, seemed ready to follow him, but not overwhelmingly.

[Hash]

May 10, 1981

On Sunday, May 10, 1981, voters were called to the voting booths two weeks after the first round for the runoff, opposing left and right. Mitterrand led in polls, but most observers and voters predicted a Giscard victory. They remembered all too well the 1978 defeat of the United Left by the Presidential Majority in the legislative election. Would it be different? Mitterrand hoped so. Turnout rumours indicated better turnout amongst PS and PCF voters than on April 26, and about the same turnout amongst RPR, UDF, and UNF voters. The first turnout reports at 19:30 indicated an abstention of about 14%, almost 4% lower than the 17.9% abstention on April 26. This was a good early sign for Mitterrand. But all hope was not lost in Chamalières for the UDF candidate.

At 20:00, the Honeywell-BULL exit poll was broadcast live on national radio and television. The President of France, 1981-1988 is...

[Hash]

1981 Presidential Election Runoff Results

The exit poll broadcast at 20:00 on national television projected the election of François Mitterrand with 52% of the votes. If the exit poll held, as it was likely to, François Mitterrand had become the first ever Socialist President of the Fifth Republic and the first to defeat an incumbent President. Valéry Giscard d'Estaing took 48% of the voters, and voter turnout was 85.77%.

Election Results
Abstention: 14.23%
Voting: 85.77%
Blank and Void: 1.02%

François Mitterrand (PS) 52.02%
Valéry Giscard d’Estaing (UDF) 47.98%

Crazy and ecstatic Mitterrand supporters nationwide rejoiced at Mitterrand's election. Loud supporters delayed Mitterrand's first speech as President-elect in Chateau-Chinon, his Nièvre stronghold.

François Mitterrand, fourth President of the French Republic and first Socialist President ever

The election was split along lines similar to those seen in 1974. Voters 18 to 34 gave Mitterrand over 60% of the votes, and voters 50 and older gave Giscard over 50%. Mitterrand prevailed amongst middle-aged voters (34 to 49) with 51%. Giscard handily won those in agriculture, artisans, and liberal arts, all with over 60%. He also won inactives and retirees with 54%. Mitterrand won 67% of the worker vote, and 58% of employees. The election also split heavily on partisan lines: Mitterrand won left-wing and far-left voters with over 90% and Giscard won right-wing and far-right voters also with more than 90%. He also won centrists with 69%.



On May 21, 1981, Mitterrand and his new Prime Minister, Pierre Mauroy, were sworn in into office. The same day, at the Panthéon, they commemorated historical heroes of France, including Jean Moulin and the early 20th century socialist leader, Jean Jaurès.

On May 22, Mitterrand dissolved the National Assembly and called for legislative elections.

[Hash]

1981 Legislative Election

The National Assembly was dissolved on May 22, 1981 by President Mitterrand in order to give the PS and its allies a parliamentary majority to push through their ambitious reforms. The election was scheduled for June 14 and 21.

The PS hit at the right time. The UDF was still recovering from its defeat on May 10, and the RPR-UDF relations were at their lowest point in many years. However, they still formed the Union pour la nouvelle majorite (UNM) alliance for the election. But voters were skeptical of the quick RPR-UDF reconciliation in appearance.

The PS was riding high in polls. The RPR-UDF was reduced to a scare campaign against the entry of four PCF ministers in the Mauroy government. But the PCF didn't scare the population as it had in 1971 or before. For one big reason: the PCF wasn't the top party on the left.

Sofres Poll (June 4, 1981)
PS-MRG 34%
PCF 18%
EXG-PSU 2%
Left 54%
RPR 20%
UDF 18%
UNF-DVD 5%
Right 42%
Ecologists 2%
Others 1%
FN 1%

One thing worried both parties: turnout. A bit over a month since a active and interesting presidential election, voters seemed tired of elections. All sides encouraged participation, of course, but both sides worried about the effects of low turnout on their seat numbers.

Their worries were right. 25.5% abstained in the runoff, and a bit less than 30% abstained in the first round. However, a reversal of 1978, the UDF and RPR voters were the ones that abstained in higher numbers.

The parliamentary left, the PS in specific, won big. The PS won or tied with the UDF or RPR in all professional categories. They performed well in all groups, even in those that normally went for the UDF or RPR. The PCF suffered a big defeat and obtained one of its worst percentage result since 1936. The PS, like the UDR in 1968, got a parliamentary majority on its own, with 280 Socialists elected. In all, the Union of the Left obtained 69.7% of all seats.

PS 280 (+169)
PCF 48 (-41)
MRG 14 (+3)
PSU 0 (-1)
Left: 342 (+130)
RPR 80 (-62)
UDF 59 (-70)
Other right 5 (-1)
UNF-CNIP 5 (+3)
Right: 149 (-130)

Pierre Mauroy, as per tradition, resigned on May 22, and Mitterrand promptly re-nominated him as Prime Minister. The Mitterrand presidency, one of ambitious reforms, could start.

[Hash]

PCF -41

What'd you expect?

[Hash]

This. Yes. Update tomorrow or whenever I get the time to do so.

[Hash]

The Mitterrand Presidency 1981-1982

The new Mauroy government took office on June 23, 1981.

Major cabinet posts, as of June 23, 1981:

Prime Minister: Pierre Mauroy (PS)
Minister of State, and Minister of the Interior and Decentralization: Gaston Defferre (PS)
Minister of State, and Minister of Foreign Commerce: Michel Jobert (MD)¹
Minister of State, and Minister of Transports: Charles Fiterman (PCF)
Minister of State, and Minister of Planning and Territorial Development: Michel Rocard (PS)
Minister of State, and Minister of Research and Technology: Jean-Pierre Chevènement (PS)
Minister of State, and Minister of Justice: Robert Badinter (PS)
Minister of External Relations: Claude Cheysson (PS)
Minister of National Defense: Charles Hernu (PS)
Minister of National Education: Alain Savary (PS)
Minister of Economy and Finances: Jacques Delors (PS)
Minister of the Budget: Laurent Fabius (PS)
Minister of Agriculture: Édith Cresson (PS)
Minister of Industry: Pierre Dreyfus (PS)

Other cabinet ministers included Michel Crépeau (MRG) in Environment, Jack Lang (PS) in Culture, Jean Auroux (PS) in Labour, Jack Ralite (PCF) in Health, André Delelis (PS) in Commerce, and André Henry (PS) in Free Time².

Pierre Mauroy (PS), Prime Minister

The Mauroy government led a very left-wing policy from the start of its term, and the parliamentary majority ratified a 10% increase in the SMIC (minimum wage), and a 25% increase in family allocations. Other measures included a reduction to a 39-hour workweek (from 40), a fifth week of paid vacations.

The most significant measure of 1981 came with the abolition of the death penalty by the National Assembly in mid September 1981. A majority of the RPR, but not Jacques Chirac, voted against, as did a narrow majority of UDF deputies. Almost the entirety of the PS and PCF groups voted in favour. The five UNF deputies voted against, and Royer was noted for his violent speech in opposition at the tribune of the National Assembly. The text narrowly passed the right-wing Senate, with various centrists voting with the PS and PCF in favour.

In December 1981, the government passed the law on nationalizations, which saw the nationalization of numerous industries. The Constitutional Council rejected the first text, but approved a later text re-passed by the Assembly in February 1982.

The government's foreign policy adopted a very critical vis-a-vis of the United States. The Mitterrand presidency condemned the continuing US embargo on Cuba, and Jack Lang (PS), Minister of Culture, stirred controversy by boycotting the American Film Festival in Deauville, Normandy.

In 1982, the government continued its quick and ambitious reform programs. Amongst the reforms of 1982 was the Defferre law on decentralization that continued upon the 1969 reform of the regional council. The new law included the direct election of the regional council, which to that date was composed of representatives of various organizations, unions, and local powers as well as local elected officials.

In the March 4 and 21 cantonal elections, the right scored a narrow victory, but the PS limited the losses to only 10 seats. The PCF, on the other hand, suffered a cold shower with only 16% of the vote and the loss of over 65 seats. On the right, the big winner of the election was the RPR, which won 18% of the vote.

The G7 summit was held in July 1982 in Versailles, France under the direction of President Mitterrand. Also in early July 1982, France won the World Cup by defeating Italy 2-1 in the July 11 final.

However, the government's popularity quickly slided with the emergence of economic worries and talk of recession. Prices and wages were frozen for six months in June 1982. Various industries and stores were forced to reduce prices, which sparked a demonstration by business owners in fall 1982.

¹ Movement of Democrats (MD) was a small party led by left-wing Gaullist Michel Jobert.
² The Ministry of Free Time dealt with youth, sports, pastimes, and tourism.