Alternate France

[Hash]

This is really interesting. It's nice to see timelines about other countries, and while I'll be the first to admit I'm hardly an expert on French political history, I have been furiously Wikipedia-ing the major players in this TL.

Thank you

[Hash]

1974 Presidential Election Runoff Results

Never had a presidential been so close... and never had the exit polls been threatened to be inaccurate by actual vote totals. At 20:00, in front of supporters mixed between celebration and anxiety at the Giscard headquarters, Michel d'Ornano, the top campaign manager, urged supporters to wait until results had come in from major cities.

However, with the results coming in from Paris and neighbouring departments, it was clear that Giscard had narrowly pulled off a victory. Despite sweeping Marseille, Mitterand had lost by a large margin in the city of Paris and Lyon, and had narrowly lost in departments such as the Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-et-Marne. 

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, candidate of the Independent Republicans, had been elected the third President of the French Republic, defeating the candidate of the Union of the Left, François Mitterrand, who had lost by 0.22%.

Results of the Second Round:
Abstention: 11.98%
Voting: 88.02%
Blank and Void: 0.67%

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (RI-MDR-UDR) 50.11%
François Mitterrand (PS-PCF-MRG) 49.89%



The electorates of Mitterrand and Giscard represented two opposites. Mitterrand had handily won the younger vote, but the older vote had gone heavily for Giscard, especially seniors. Regular church-attending Catholics gave 80% to Giscard. In fact, Giscard took over 55% in traditionally christian democratic departments such as Ille-et-Vilaine, Manche, Bas/Haut Rhin, Cantal, Haute-Loire, and other departments in the Pays de la Loire. However, atheists gave 84% to Mitterrand. Mitterrand also won the votes of 73% of non-religious Catholics and 55% of those of another religion. Both candidates split the vote of non-regular church-attending Catholics, which was narrowly won by Mitterrand 52-48. Women voted for Giscard 53-47, but men favoured Mitterrand by a similar margin.

Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, elected third President of the Fifth French Republic on May 19, 1974 with 50.11%

Giscard needed not to worry in the end about Chaban's and Royer's voters, which voted for him with 81% and 79% respectively. Vote transfers from Laguiller and Krivine to Mitterrand were, on the other hand, less than perfect for the candidate of the left.

On May 24, the Ministry of the Interior officialized the results and the election of Valéry Giscard d'Estaing to the top job. On May 27, 1974; Giscard was to be sworn in, along with his new Prime Minister...


Michel Poniatowski, Jacques Chirac, Michel d'Ornano... Who?

[Хahar 🤔]

[Math]

Michel Poniatowski, Jacques Chirac, Michel d'Ornano... Who?

Poniatowski would be fun. Why not JJSS :-)

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Continues to be quite good. In your face Mitterand!

This is giving me ideas of my own, Iron Bob loses in '61 anyone?

[Hash]

The Giscard Presidency: 1974-1975

On May 27, 1974; Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, 48 years old, was officially sworn in as President of the French Republic at the Elysée.

Lengthy negotiations between the UDR, RI, MDR and the Radicals had taken place since Giscard's victory on the night on the 19^th of May. According to the rumour spreaders, two candidates were disputing the post of Prime Minister: Jacques Chirac (UDR), the 42-year old rising-star of the Gaullist movement and Michel Poniatowski (RI), a confident and close collaborator of Giscard.

Michel Poniatowski was finally chosen as Prime Minister, to the discontent of Jacques Chirac and many of Giscard's UDR supporters. However, Chirac was named Minister of the Interior, and Minister of State (and thus, the second-in-command).

Major cabinet posts, as of May 28, 1974:

Prime Minister: Michel Poniatowski (RI)
Minister of State, and Minister of the Interior: Jacques Chirac (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Justice: Jean Lecanuet (MDR)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Jean Sauvagnargues (Ind)
Minister of Economy and Finances: Jean-Pierre Fourcade (RI)
Minister of National Education: René Haby (RI)
Minister of Equipment, Housing, and Development: Olivier Guichard (UDR)
Minister of Cultural Affairs: Robert Galley (UDR)
Minister of Agriculture: Christian Bonnet (RI)
Minister of Industry: Michel d'Ornano (RI)

Other cabinet ministers included Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber (Radical) in Governmental Reform, Michel Durafour (MDR) in Labour, Simone Veil (Ind) in Health, Vincent Ansquer (UDR) in Commerce, and Olivier Stirn (UDR) in DOM-TOM Affairs.

Michel Poniatowski, Prime Minister

Elected on the theme of change and modernization, the first year of Giscard's presidency was marked by large-scale reforms. Under the Poniatowski ministry, various liberal-minded economic reforms were introduced. Among them, an anti-inflation crusade, and and budgetary savings.

The government experienced its first shaking on June 9, when the Radical Minister of Reforms, Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber, resigned over disagreements about the continuation of nuclear tests.

On July 5, the parliament adopted the law lowering the age of maturity from 21 to 18. This law became the first major social reform of Giscard's presidency. The same day, the new Secretary of State for Foreign Workers, Paul Dijoud (RI), decided to suspend the immigration of non-European foreign workers.

On September 22, indirect Senatorial election to renew a third of seats, those elected in 1965, were held.

RI 57 (-2)
PS-PSU 51 (+8)
UCDP 50 (+4)
UDR 40 (-6)
Democratic Left 35 (-)
PCF 24 (+1)
RIAS¹ 15 (-1)
Non-affiliated 10 (-3)
UNF 1 (-1)

In October, the PSU imploded at the pleasure of Mitterrand's Socialist Party. Michel Rocard and his followers joined the PS, while another faction joined a Marxist-Leninist fringe party. However, a small faction led by Huguette Bouchardeau continued a smaller, fringe PSU.

On December 4, the second Neuwirth Law was passed, opening the access of the contraceptive pill (legalized in 1967 by the first Neuwirth Law) to minors without parental consent and reimbursed by the social security. Jean Royer, the leader of the UNF and Mayor of Tours led a very vocal opposition to the law, but the final blow was to come to his social conservatism.

On January 17, the Veil law, proposed by the Minister of Health, Simone Veil (a former Auschwitz detainee), was passed, legalizing abortion. Jean Royer tried desperately to rally anti-abortion activists and other social conservatives, and threatened to end the UNF's support of the parliamentary centre-right.

On January 6, after the ORTF's implosion in December 1974, the ORTF was divided into Radio-France, the INA, SFP and the TV channels TF1, Antenne 2, FR3-Regions, and TDF. In response to the after-effects of the oil crisis, President Giscard d'Estaing announced a plan to "help the economy" and specifically businesses suffering of the follow-up to the oil crisis.

1975 was also marked by other social reforms, among them the law facilitating divorce by mutual consent, a law of 'orientation' in favour of handicapped persons, and the Haby law on secondary education ("unique high school", education of regional languages).

The government's second major crisis came with the Aleria affair, in Corsica, where Michel Poniatowski and Jacques Chirac ordered the intervention of the police to break up a nationalist cell led by Edmond Siméoni. As a result of the action, 2 gendarmes were killed. The Socialists and Communists blamed Chirac and Poniatowski for the use of force in the affair.

On November 23, the first ever G6 summit was held in Rambouillet, France under the leadership of Giscard d'Estaing. In attendance were Gerald Ford (US), Helmut Schmidt (Germany), Aldo Moro (Italy), Takeo Miki (Japan), and Harold Wilson of the United Kingdom.

The year ended with a bad note for the Minister of Labour, Michel Durafour (MDR), with the number of unemployed breaking the symbolic million.

¹ Independent Republicans of Social Action (RIAS): Successor group to the CRARS. Composed primarily of CNIP and some RI Senators.

[Hash]

The Giscard Presidency: 1976-1977

The year 1976 started with the government shuffle on early January, marked by the entry of new ministers and the departure of others. Among major changes, Jean Lecanuet (MDR), Minister of Justice, became in addition a Minister of State (along with Jacques Chirac). However, the cabinet shuffle, was overshadowed by the obvious political differences between Chirac and Giscard.

On February 8th, at its 22nd Congress, the Communist Party, under the leadership of Georges Marchais, renounced to its idea of a "dictatorship of the proletariat", continuing the trend of the PCF to the parliamentary left (the Socialist Party) as opposed to being an independent left-wing opposition party.

The parliamentary left won anmportant victory on March 7 and 14, when the Socialists and Communists won the cantonal elections. The total vote for the left (PS-PCF-MRG-DVG) was 56.3%, compared to 49.9% in 1971. The Socialists largely overtook the Communists as top vote-getters, winning 27.5% to the PCF's 22.9%. Left Radicals won 2.3% and miscellaneous left candidates won 3.6%. In addition, the left gained the control of 15 departments.

On April 29, two years after decreeing "zero immigration", the decree was changed, allowing family reunification.

In late May, at the congress of the Movement of Reformers (MDR), two component parties- Lecanuet's CD and the DP (whose membership favoured Chaban-Delmas in 1974) merged to formed the Centre des démocrates sociaux (Social and Democratic Centre, or CDS). The Radicals, the only other major component party of the MDR, remained outside of the CDS. The MDR movement ended, and was effectively replaced by the CDS.

In early August, with relations between Giscard and Chirac becoming terrible, Chirac resigned as Minister of the Interior. Olivier Guichard, another UDR, replaced Chirac as Minister of the Interior and became number two of the Poniatowski government. However, the unhealthy relationship had divided the UDR and the Giscardian RI.

On November 5, Chirac, eager to take control of the UDR, created the the Rassemblement pour la République (RPR) to succeed the UDR, which dissolved into Chirac's new political machine.

Jacques Chirac at an early meeting of the RPR

On December 24, Jean de Broglie, an RI deputy, was assassinated. Olivier Guichard and Poniatowski laid the blame on Patrick de Ribemont, who was finally found not guilty. France, however, was found guilty by the European Human Rights Court and forced to pay back Ribemont. The opposition called for the resignation of Guichard and Poniatowski, who saw his approval dwindle a few months ahead of the March 1977 local elections.

The new year, 1977, started with the inauguration of the Georges Pompidou (Beaubourg) centre in Paris, an art gallery, by the President and Prime Minister, who took the opportunity to remember the former President.

The good times ended on March 13 and 20, when the left won a huge landslide in the local elections. The Socialists gained Angers, Brest, La Roche-sur-Yon, Cherbourg, Meaux, Chartres by the first round. The PCF gained Reims and Saint-Quentin by the first round. In the runoff, the PS won Chambery, Poitiers, Montpellier, Nantes, Rennes, Saint-Malo, and Angoulème. In Le Mans, Saint-Etienne, and Bourges, the PCF won. In the first ever elections to elect a Mayor of Paris, Jacques Chirac (RPR) defeated the left, but, most notably, Michel d'Ornano, the RI candidate.

On May 19, the Independent Republicans became the Republican Party (PR), possibly the first step in the fulfillment of Giscard's hope for a united liberal-christian democratic centre, expressed in his 1976 essay Démocratie française.

On June 27, Djibouti, or the French Territory of the Afars and the Issas obtained their independence, after voting 98% in favour of it a month earlier in a referendum.

On September 25, indirect Senatorial election to renew a third of seats, those elected in 1968, were held. The Socialists won an important victory, picking up 11 seats. The Radical group split between the Democratic Left (right Radicals) and a MRG group.

PS 62 (+11)
UCDP 59 (+9)
RI 52 (-5)
RPR 35 (-5)
Democratic Left 25 (-10)
PCF 23 (-1)
RIAS 17 (+2)
MRG 11 (+11)
Non-affiliated 10 (-)
UNF 1 (-)

In October, the parliament passed a law protecting private citizens in the wake of modern technology.

[Hash]

1978 Legislative Elections

The defeat of the majority in the 1977 locals worried the right. The outlook for the 1978 legislative elections were not rosy. The thoughts of a Socialist Prime Minister, likely Mitterrand, in opposition to a centre-right President, became common in January 1978.

However, the left shot themselves in the foot. With the situation between the PCF and the PS being very tense, and Georges Marchais calling for a revision of the Common Programme of the left, divisions were clear in the Union of the Left. On December 28, the United Left became the disunited left. Mitterrand, on his part, was committed to place first, before the PCF in the legislative elections. The PS began a not-so-clean attack on the PCF.

On February 1, under the direction of Jean Lecanuet (CDS) and Jean-Pierre Soisson (PR), the Republican Party joined with the United Centre and the Radicals to form the UDF, Union pour la démocratie française. The UDF would be a confederation of independent parties, that would nonetheless sit as one group in the National Assembly. After the left, the right, it was now the centre's turn to unite.

With polls indicating that a Socialist Prime Minister was likely, the RPR, but mostly the UDF, warned voters of the Common Programme and Communist cabinet ministers, but also of the potential disasters of cohabitation with the left, something never seen before.

Sofres Poll (February 21, 1978)
PS-MRG 30%
PCF 21%
EXG-PSU 3%
Left 54%
RPR 20%
UDF 18%
UNF-DVD 5%
Right 43%
Ecologists 2%
Others-FN 1%

Down the poll results, two other questions produced interesting results. Firstly, when asked to prognosticate the victor, respondents were split: 40% said the right would win, 40% said the left would win, and 20% did not know. When asked who they wanted to win, respondents once again split evenly: 45% wanted the victory of the majority, 45% wanted the victory of the left, and 10% did not know.

Sofres Poll (March 9, 1978)
PS-MRG 29% (-1)
PCF 21.5% (+0.5)
EXG-PSU 2.5% (-0.5)
Left 53% (-1)
RPR 20% (=)
UDF 19% (+1)
UNF-DVD 3% (-2)
Right 42% (-1)
Ecologists 3% (+1)
Others-FN 2% (+1)

When asked who would win, 40% prognosticated the left, 35% said the majority, and 25% were unsure. However, only 43% wanted the victory of the left, with the other 43% wanting the right to win. 14% did not know.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Firstly just a question about French Politics in General. This might sound like a stupid question to you but I'd thought I'd ask it. What is the difference between President and Prime Minister in France?

Looking forward to the upcoming 1981 Presidential Election, any ideas on potential candidates? Will Chirac and Le Pen run?

[Hash]

Firstly just a question about French Politics in General. This might sound like a stupid question to you but I'd thought I'd ask it. What is the difference between President and Prime Minister in France?

In normal cases ('normal' doesn't apply to Sarkozy oc):

President: head of state; takes care of foreign policy (and in Sarkozy's case, attend the funerals of everybody). Promulgates laws, names PM (but can't fire him), C-i-C of the armies, grant pardons, dissolve Assembly, name other officials etc.
PM: head of government; takes care on interal stuff/unpopular social policy.

Looking forward to the upcoming 1981 Presidential Election, any ideas on potential candidates? Will Chirac and Le Pen run?

Wait and see

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Firstly just a question about French Politics in General. This might sound like a stupid question to you but I'd thought I'd ask it. What is the difference between President and Prime Minister in France?

In normal cases ('normal' doesn't apply to Sarkozy oc):

President: head of state; takes care of foreign policy (and in Sarkozy's case, attend the funerals of everybody). Promulgates laws, names PM (but can't fire him), C-i-C of the armies, grant pardons, dissolve Assembly, name other officials etc.
PM: head of government; takes care on interal stuff/unpopular social policy.

Looking forward to the upcoming 1981 Presidential Election, any ideas on potential candidates? Will Chirac and Le Pen run?

Wait and see

Thanks for clearing that up .

[Hash]

1978 Legislative Elections

Giscard had reason to be worried. The total PS-PCF had around 50 to 52% in polls, or up to 54-55 if the PSU was included. The right, already divided between the pro-Giscard UDF and the Giscard-critical RPR, was badly trailing in polls and the idea of a Socialist Prime Minister in opposition to a centre-right President was often discussed.

The campaign had interested voters, and abstention fell 2% compared to 1976: down to approximately 16% in the runoff (15% in the first round). Rumours started to fly by 19:00 that the Socialists had won, big according to some. For others, the right had squeaked out a narrow victory.

In fact, to the general surprise, voters had given the right a narrow victory. The RPR came first in terms of votes by a matter of a mere thousand votes (23%), the PS closely behind (23%). The UDF was in third, with 20%, barely in front of the PCF (20%). All small parties were far behind. The UNF and DVD had around 6%, the PSU and the far-left had 3%, the ecologists had done well (3%) and other parties, including the far-right FN did poorly (2%).

RPR 142 (-37)¹
UDF 129 (+15)²
Other right 6 (-1)
UNF 2 (-)
Right: 279 (-23)
PS 111 (-1)
PCF 89 (+16)
MRG 11 (+11)
PSU 1 (-2)
Left: 212 (+24)

¹ Compared to the 1973 result of the UDR
² Compared to the 1973 combined results of the RI and MDR

According to the Sofres exit poll, the Socialists had made big inroads among workers, who gave only 36% of their vote to the PCF and 29% to the PS-MRG. In other categories, the Socialists had also made large gains- amongst the most surprising, it took 26% with those 65+, 30% and a victory amongst employees (20% RPR, 13% UDF). With the youngest voters, which still voted Communist, the Socialists were now only 3% behind them.

With his popularity at a low and the Broglie affair making waves again, Michel Poniatowski tendered his resignation as Prime Minister.

[Хahar 🤔]

-47 seats total? Why?

[Hash]

-47 seats total? Why?

Thanks for catching, t'was supposed to be +24, not -24 oc.

[Hash]

The Barre Government

After Poniatowski's resignation, the parliamentary majority agreed on the nomination of the independent centrist Raymond Barre, who was in the best position to rally the UDF and RPR, as Prime Minister until the 1981 presidential elections, at the least. His new government resembled the post-Chirac Poniatowski cabinet, with most Ministers remaining in their posts.

Major cabinet posts, as of March 31, 1978:

Prime Minister: Raymond Barre (UDF)
Minister of the Interior: Christian Bonnet (UDF-PR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Justice: Alain Peyrefitte (RPR)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Jean-François Poncet (UDF-Radical)
Minister of National Defense: Yvon Bourges (RPR)
Minister of National Education: Joël Le Theule (RPR)
Minister of Economy and Finances: René Monory (UDF-CDS)
Minister of the Budget: Maurice Papon (RPR)
Minister of Agriculture: Pierre Méhaignerie (UDF-CDS)
Minister of Co-operation: Robert Galley (RPR)
Minister of Industry: André Giraud (RPR)

Other cabinet ministers included Michel d'Ornano (UDF-PR) in Environment, Simone Veil (UDF) in Health, Jean-Pierre Soisson (UDF-PR) in Youth and Sports, and Jacques Barrot (UDF-CDS) in Commerce.

The RPR continued its governmental participation, despite tensions between the UDF and the RPR. In fact, in December 1978, Jacques Chirac had broadcast the Appel de Cochin calling the UDF the parti de l'étranger (the foreign party), a remark aimed at the UDF's pro-European policies. This came months before the 1979 European elections, the first to be held under direct universal suffrage.

On March 18 and 25, the left won the cantonal elections, again, and picked up 9 additional presidencies while losing 1, a net gain of +8. However, public attention was focused on the European campaign. The major lists in competition were the PS-MRG list (Mitterrand), the UDF list (Veil), the RPR-UNF list (Chirac), the PCF list (Marchais), and other lists. Despite it being a European elections, the motivations of many voters were based on French economic and social factors, not issues of European construction.

Interest for the campaign grew from April (48% interest) to May (54% interest). In opinion polls, the race was close between the PS-MRG list and the UDF list, the PCF in third with the RPR badly trailing in fourth with about 18%.

On election day, June 10th, 61% of voters turned out to vote. According to exit polls, most of the voters who hadn't voted were Socialist or Communist. This led to the victory of the UDF list, which took 26.9% against 24.2% for the PS-MRG. Marchais' Communists took a disappointing 20.9%, while the RPR was badly defeated with only 16.2%. Ecologists took a distant fifth with around 4%. Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber's UDF dissident (Radical) list was also badly defeated, with less than 2%.

The composition of the French delegation to the European parliament:

UDF 24
PS-MRG 23
PCF 20
RPR 14

The rest of 1979 was tough for Giscard. In October the satirical newspaper Le Canard enchaîné revealed the Bokassa diamonds affair, directly involving the President. Giscard's response to the scandal was feeble, unlike the fiery responses from the seats of the opposition.

In July 1980, the minimum wage was raised by over 2%, but the 2% raise was little in comparison to the important rise in food and commodity prices. Public transportation and train passes also increased importantly that month.

On September 28, indirect Senatorial election to renew a third of seats, those elected in 1971, were held. The two major UDF factions, the CDS and the Republicans continued to sit in different groups.

PS 70 (+8)
UCDP 65 (+6)
UREI¹ 52 (=)
RPR 42 (+7)
Democratic Left 26 (+1)
PCF 23 (=)
MRG 12 (+1)
Non-affiliated 13 (+3)
UNF 2 (+1)

¹ Union of Republicans and Independents (UREI): Name adopted by the group composed primarily of UDF-PR and other liberal Senators.


Next: Campaign '81! Are we ready?

[Хahar 🤔]

Next: Campaign '81! Are we ready?

YES!

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Next: Campaign '81! Are we ready?

YES!

I really hope that the next update involves the 1981 Presidential Election Hashemite. I wonder who the candidates will be?

[Hash]

1981 Presidential Election

The 1981 election, scheduled for April 26 and May 10, 1981 was extremely uncertain. The economic situation, various financial scandals, a new found strength on the left, the new RPR and its ambitious young leader, Jacques Chirac, seriously handicapped Giscard, who wasn't, however, dead just yet.

The new centrist union, the UDF, had held its first congress in Paris in 1981, where UDF members confirmed Valéry Giscard d'Estaing as the 1981 presidential candidate.

For the RPR, which had obtained a deceiving result in the 1979 EU election after coming out on top of the presidential majority in the 1978 elections, the party chose its President and the Mayor of Paris, Jacques Chirac as its candidate. However, his candidacy was contested by his former councillor, Marie-France Garaud, a conservative right-wing Gaullist. Former UDR Prime Minister Michel Debré, who threw his name into the hat for the election. The 1971 and 1974 UNF candidate and Mayor of Tours, Jean Royer, declined to run for a third time and insisted that he supported no candidate of the right.

After the breakup of the Common Programme between the PS, PCF, and MRG, the left was not united behind Mitterrand as it had been in 1974. Even Mitterrand's own leadership had been contested at the Metz Congress by the former PSU leader Michel Rocard, who still thought of a candidacy in his own right. With Mitterrand's intentions still unsure, Jean-Pierre Chevènement of the CERES (a faction of the PS) put his name in that hat for the nomination, on condition that Mitterrand did not run.

The leader of the Communist Party, Georges Marchais, announced his candidacy under slogans including "The Anti-Giscard candidate". The other party of the Common Programme, the Left Radicals nominated the Mayor of La Rochelle, Michel Crépeau. The remaining faction of the PSU nominated Huguette Bouchardeau for president. Brice Lalonde became the ecologist candidate for the presidency, running for a coalition of small ecologist groups known as the MEP¹.

On the far-left, Alain Krivine thought of a new candidacy for the LCR, but with bad poll numbers and his failure to pick up 500 endorsements, Arlette Laguiller of LO became the sole candidate of the far-left.

On October 10, 1980 the popular humourist Coluche (Michel Colucci) announced his candidacy, loyal to his traditional humour. He called on drug-addicts, homosexuals, seniors, Arabs, black, prostitutes, insane people, and communists, among others, to support his candidacy and to "shove it up their asses with Coluche".

Announcement of the Coluche candidacy in October 1980

His candidacy soon attracts an alarming 10% to 16% of support and third place in opinion polls for numerous papers.

In January 1981 at the Creteil Congress, Mitterrand was chosen as the candidate of the Socialist Party with full support and no other candidacies. His program was titled 110 Propositions for France, with many ideas from the Common Programme. His candidacy received the support of the 1974 royalist candidate Bertrand Renouvin, who declined to run again. Mitterrand trailed Giscard in polls for both rounds.


¹ Movement of Political Ecology (MEP) is an alliance grouping various small ecologist and green parties.

[Хahar 🤔]

Go Coluche!

[Kevinstat]

Something tells me Coluche is going to get into the runoff.

[Hash]

1981 Presidential Election: The Campaign

The 1981 campaign, which had started in the favour of Giscard soon turned against him. His poll numbers slid, his approval ratings went into the red for the first time.

The RPR candidate, Jacques Chirac, imitated the newly-elected American President Ronald Reagan. His main theme was to lower taxes. However, his poll numbers were very low, with only 10 or 11% of voting intentions.

Mitterrand too, lagged far behind Giscard in polls, with Georges Marchais closely trailing him, with a potential for a Giscard-Marchais runoff. However, after the Creteil Congress and his official nomination, Mitterrand surpassed the symbolic 20% bar and widened his lead over his Communist rival. In February, the Sofres poll had him on 25%, trailing Giscard, who had 27%. Marchais had 18%, and Chirac had only 13%.

The Sofres did not poll the Coluche candidacy, which had started worrying Giscard and Mitterrand. Giscard didn't want Coluche to bring up the Central-African diamond affair scandal to the spotlight and Mitterrand saw Coluche as a threat for his election to the Presidency. Giscard had the state media boycott Coluche to limit his press time. The three state channels and Radio France ignored his candidacy. Giscard also turned to illegal actions: he had the Ministry of the Interior investigate Coluche's past for a scandal, with little turning up. Far-right groups and other anonymous letters threatened his life.

On April 16, the deadline for the 500 endorsements fell. Coluche, who had boasted over 500 endorsements a week prior, obtained only 9. Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Front National (FN) leader, failed to run, due to another failed candidacy from the PFN (Parti des forces nouvelles) leader Pascal Gauchon. Michel Jobert, a left-wing Gaullist, former cabinet minister, and founder of the Jobertist movement also failed to meet the requirements.

The first Sofres poll after the deadline showed Giscard far ahead of Mitterrand.

Sofres Poll for Le Figaro (April 16, 1981)
Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (UDF) 28%
François Mitterrand (PS) 22%
Georges Marchais (PCF) 19.5%
Jacques Chirac (RPR) 18.5%
Brice Lalonde (MEP) 4%
Michel Crépeau (MRG) 2%
Arlette Laguiller (LO) 1.5%
Michel Debré (DVD) 1.5%
Marie-France Garaud (DVD) 1.5%
Huguette Bouchardeau (PSU) 1.5%

Chirac received a net boost, from 15% in the preceding poll. He still trailed fourth, but his difference with Marchais got smaller. He distanced two dissidents from the RPR, Debré and Garaud, who polled only crumbs.

Mitterrand urged Socialist voters to turn out en-masse in the first round and the runoff. Socialist electors had shown in past elections their lack of motivation and lower turnout than UDF-RPR voters.

The first round was scheduled for April 26, 1981. The last poll, on the 24th, was almost identical to the above-mentioned poll, with only little changes within the MoE.


First round next.

[Хahar 🤔]

It'd be interesting to see Marchais get into the second round.

[Hash]

It'd be interesting to see Marchais get into the second round.

Giscard President 1974-1988.

[Хahar 🤔]

It'd be interesting to see Marchais get into the second round.

Giscard President 1974-1988.

Quite right.

[Kevinstat]

A Socialist v. Communist runoff would be interesting.  That would only take just over a 2.5% shift from the two main candidates on the right to the two main candidates on the left from that Sofres poll to happen if the two candidates on each side split their side's vote 50-50.