Alternate France

[Kevinstat]

A Socialist v. Communist runoff would be interesting.  That would only take just over a 2.5% shift from the two main candidates on the right to the two main candidates on the left from that Sofres poll to happen if the two candidates on each side split their side's vote 50-50.

[Hash]

Bump

I had a reply, but then Firefox ed up with it. Tomorrow, if I have time.

[Хahar 🤔]

Horray, update coming momentarily!

[Hash]

1981 Presidential Election Results

On Sunday, April 26, 1981, over 36 million voters were called to choose between ten candidates in the first round of the 1981 presidential election. The top two candidates were the same than in 1974, Giscard (UDF) and Mitterrand (PS). Voters had been interested by the late campaign, but less so than in 1974. First estimates of voter abstention at 20:00 placed it at 18% (+2.98% on 1974), higher than in 1974 but still relatively low.

Election Results
Abstention: 17.85%
Voting: 82.15%
Blank and Void: 0.98%

Valéry Giscard d’Estaing (UDF) 28.64%
François Mitterrand (PS) 22.34%
Georges Marchais (PCF) 19.53%
Jacques Chirac (RPR) 18.33%
Brice Lalonde (MEP) 4.31%
Arlette Laguiller (LO) 1.85%
Michel Crépeau (MRG) 1.52%
Michel Debré (DVD) 1.42%
Marie-France Garaud (DVD) 1.23%
Huguette Bouchardeau (PSU) 0.83%

The first round presented a favourable scenario for the left, Mitterrand in particular. Mitterrand, Marchais, and Crépeau obtained a total of 43.39% of the votes, up from Mitterrand's 42.79% in 1974, when he stood as the PS-PCF-MRG candidate. Giscard, despite getting first place, lost votes (a bit more than 3%) from his 1974 result of 32.13%. Chirac finished an honourable fourth with 18.33%, still a strong result to play a role in the close runoff. Lalonde obtained over 3% more than Dumont, the ecologist candidate in 1974. Michel Debré and Marie-France Garaud, the so-called "true Gaullist" candidates in the race, obtained a total of 2.65%, crumbs. Without the support of any party, their dissident candidacy against Chirac had failed and Chirac prevailed as the candidate of the Gaullist right.


Analysis of the First Round

Electorates

According to the Sofres vote breakdown by age, Giscard won the seniors vote, with 47% of those voters by the first round, Mitterrand being a distant second. At the other extremity, Marchais won those 18 to 24, with 27% against 23% for Mitterrand and Giscard. Lalonde did well with those voters too, taking 12%. For Marchais, the younger the voters, the more votes. For Chirac, those 50 to 64 were his best, taking 23% among those voters.

On an employment basis, Giscard won among farmers, small shopkeepers/artisans, and retired/inactive workers. Among those in liberal arts, Chirac did well, winning them with 34%. With the PCF in the race, the close PS-PCF race for the worker's vote continued. Marchais won, narrowly, 30-28 against Mitterrand, Giscard trailing with only 19%.

Marchais won the far-left, with 55%, but lost left-wing voters to Mitterrand 53-24. Centrist voters didn't go heavily for the candidate of the UDF, only 39% of centrists preferred him. Chirac won 29%. Mitterrand won 16% of centrists. However, Giscard won right-wing voters against Chirac, taking 60% against only 31% for Chirac. Giscard also won far-right voters and independents.

Geography

As in 1974, where Giscard and Chaban split the right-wing vote, in 1981 Mitterrand and Marchais split the left-wing vote.



Giscard did best in the traditional centrist regions, as in 1974. Apart from the Socialist holdout in the Côtes du Nord, he won all Breton departments and all departments in the Pays de la Loire. He also won Alsace, another traditionally centrist region. In his home region of Auvergne and the surrounding departments of Aveyron and Lozère (two other Catholic regions), he benefited also from a favourite son factor again, winning his own department of Puy de Dome. From 1974, he won the departments of central of France where Mitterrand had won (on Giscard-Chaban divisions) in 1974, the Rhone-Alpes departments around Lyon and did well in the conservative departments of Lorraine and Champagne. In the Nord and Picardie, he won based on the strong showings obtained by Marchais there.

Mitterand, after winning many departments in the first round of 1974, was reduced to only the most Socialist departments of the Radical south-west and other areas. He won his home department of the Nièvre.

Marchais split the left-wing vote with Mitterrand in most departments. He himself won five departments, all reliably Communist areas. He won the eastern suburbs of Paris, composed of Seine-Saint-Denis and his home department of the Val-de-Marne. He won the Allier, a rural region where the PCF dominated politics. In the Bouches-du-Rhone, the Communist areas of northern Marseille, the Marseille suburbs, and Arles carried him to victory. In the neighboring Gard, the Communist departmental capital, Nimes got him a narrow victory over Mitterrand.

Chirac also won five departments, despite polling minimally better than Chaban had done in 1974. However, he had a very strong base in two areas. In Paris, the city where he was the Mayor since 1977, he had a big advantage and won the city. In his home department of the Corrèze, where he was well known, he won too, by a large margin. His name recognition in Corrèze carried over into the conservative Cantal (the department of Pompidou), but also in the Creuse, where Marchais had come in second (with Mitterrand still getting a strong showing).

[Хahar 🤔]

So much analysis.

I like it. Please continue.

[Hash]

Debate + all the pre-runoff dealings coming tonight.

[Hash]

I finish early today, so I'll update this then.

[Hash]

April 27-May 9, 1981

Mitterrand came out of the runoff with a narrow advantage over the incumbent Giscard d'Estaing. The third man of the election, the Communist Georges Marchais immediately threw his support behind Mitterrand, calling on his voters to defeat Giscard.

In addition, Giscard had seen his popularity drop below 50% for the first time in January 1981. Mitterrand and the Socialist Party enjoyed high approval and favourability ratings. Mitterrand had the upper hand, even in polls.

Sofres Poll (April 29, 1981)
François Mitterrand (PS) 52%
Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (UDF) 48%

However, Giscard was not dead. Chirac was still holding out his decisive endorsement and undecideds remained high. However, in the first round, the highest percentage of abstentions came from the ranks of the PS and PCF. Mitterrand needed those voters to come out for him.

On May 5, 1981, the presidential debate between Giscard and Mitterrand was held, with Jean Boissonnat and Michèle Cotta as moderators. The debate was a revenge for Mitterrand, whose defeat in the 1974 debate tilted the election to Giscard, very narrowly (50.11%). Mitterrand took his revenge well. He called Giscard "the man of the past" and attacked him on rising consumer prices, unemployment, and inflation. Mitterrand was seen to have won the debate.

The next day, Jacques Chirac, who had come in fourth in the first round with 18.33% announced, with little enthusiasm, that he would "personally" vote for Giscard. Many Chirac voters, according to polls, were ready to vote for Mitterrand or abstain, the worst scenario possible for Giscard. In addition, Brice Lalonde (MEP candidate who took 4.31%) announced his personal support for Mitterrand. His voters, according to polls, seemed ready to follow him, but not overwhelmingly.

[Хahar 🤔]

Looks very good.

[Hash]

May 10, 1981

On Sunday, May 10, 1981, voters were called to the voting booths two weeks after the first round for the runoff, opposing left and right. Mitterrand led in polls, but most observers and voters predicted a Giscard victory. They remembered all too well the 1978 defeat of the United Left by the Presidential Majority in the legislative election. Would it be different? Mitterrand hoped so. Turnout rumours indicated better turnout amongst PS and PCF voters than on April 26, and about the same turnout amongst RPR, UDF, and UNF voters. The first turnout reports at 19:30 indicated an abstention of about 14%, almost 4% lower than the 17.9% abstention on April 26. This was a good early sign for Mitterrand. But all hope was not lost in Chamalières for the UDF candidate.

At 20:00, the Honeywell-BULL exit poll was broadcast live on national radio and television. The President of France, 1981-1988 is...

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Great to see this Timeline of yours back up and running Hashemite. It is one of my favourite timelines on the Election What If's board presently. Shame you couldn't tell us whether Giscard or Mitterand won the French Presidency though, you better by the next update or else....

[Hash]

1981 Presidential Election Runoff Results

The exit poll broadcast at 20:00 on national television projected the election of François Mitterrand with 52% of the votes. If the exit poll held, as it was likely to, François Mitterrand had become the first ever Socialist President of the Fifth Republic and the first to defeat an incumbent President. Valéry Giscard d'Estaing took 48% of the voters, and voter turnout was 85.77%.

Election Results
Abstention: 14.23%
Voting: 85.77%
Blank and Void: 1.02%

François Mitterrand (PS) 52.02%
Valéry Giscard d’Estaing (UDF) 47.98%

Crazy and ecstatic Mitterrand supporters nationwide rejoiced at Mitterrand's election. Loud supporters delayed Mitterrand's first speech as President-elect in Chateau-Chinon, his Nièvre stronghold.

François Mitterrand, fourth President of the French Republic and first Socialist President ever

The election was split along lines similar to those seen in 1974. Voters 18 to 34 gave Mitterrand over 60% of the votes, and voters 50 and older gave Giscard over 50%. Mitterrand prevailed amongst middle-aged voters (34 to 49) with 51%. Giscard handily won those in agriculture, artisans, and liberal arts, all with over 60%. He also won inactives and retirees with 54%. Mitterrand won 67% of the worker vote, and 58% of employees. The election also split heavily on partisan lines: Mitterrand won left-wing and far-left voters with over 90% and Giscard won right-wing and far-right voters also with more than 90%. He also won centrists with 69%.



On May 21, 1981, Mitterrand and his new Prime Minister, Pierre Mauroy, were sworn in into office. The same day, at the Panthéon, they commemorated historical heroes of France, including Jean Moulin and the early 20th century socialist leader, Jean Jaurès.

On May 22, Mitterrand dissolved the National Assembly and called for legislative elections.

[Хahar 🤔]

Can't wait to see how these elections play out.

[Hash]

1981 Legislative Election

The National Assembly was dissolved on May 22, 1981 by President Mitterrand in order to give the PS and its allies a parliamentary majority to push through their ambitious reforms. The election was scheduled for June 14 and 21.

The PS hit at the right time. The UDF was still recovering from its defeat on May 10, and the RPR-UDF relations were at their lowest point in many years. However, they still formed the Union pour la nouvelle majorite (UNM) alliance for the election. But voters were skeptical of the quick RPR-UDF reconciliation in appearance.

The PS was riding high in polls. The RPR-UDF was reduced to a scare campaign against the entry of four PCF ministers in the Mauroy government. But the PCF didn't scare the population as it had in 1971 or before. For one big reason: the PCF wasn't the top party on the left.

Sofres Poll (June 4, 1981)
PS-MRG 34%
PCF 18%
EXG-PSU 2%
Left 54%
RPR 20%
UDF 18%
UNF-DVD 5%
Right 42%
Ecologists 2%
Others 1%
FN 1%

One thing worried both parties: turnout. A bit over a month since a active and interesting presidential election, voters seemed tired of elections. All sides encouraged participation, of course, but both sides worried about the effects of low turnout on their seat numbers.

Their worries were right. 25.5% abstained in the runoff, and a bit less than 30% abstained in the first round. However, a reversal of 1978, the UDF and RPR voters were the ones that abstained in higher numbers.

The parliamentary left, the PS in specific, won big. The PS won or tied with the UDF or RPR in all professional categories. They performed well in all groups, even in those that normally went for the UDF or RPR. The PCF suffered a big defeat and obtained one of its worst percentage result since 1936. The PS, like the UDR in 1968, got a parliamentary majority on its own, with 280 Socialists elected. In all, the Union of the Left obtained 69.7% of all seats.

PS 280 (+169)
PCF 48 (-41)
MRG 14 (+3)
PSU 0 (-1)
Left: 342 (+130)
RPR 80 (-62)
UDF 59 (-70)
Other right 5 (-1)
UNF-CNIP 5 (+3)
Right: 149 (-130)

Pierre Mauroy, as per tradition, resigned on May 22, and Mitterrand promptly re-nominated him as Prime Minister. The Mitterrand presidency, one of ambitious reforms, could start.

[Хahar 🤔]

PCF -41

[Hash]

PCF -41

What'd you expect?

[Хahar 🤔]

PCF -41

What'd you expect?

But still...

Are they participating in the government?

[Hash]

This. Yes. Update tomorrow or whenever I get the time to do so.

[Hash]

The Mitterrand Presidency 1981-1982

The new Mauroy government took office on June 23, 1981.

Major cabinet posts, as of June 23, 1981:

Prime Minister: Pierre Mauroy (PS)
Minister of State, and Minister of the Interior and Decentralization: Gaston Defferre (PS)
Minister of State, and Minister of Foreign Commerce: Michel Jobert (MD)¹
Minister of State, and Minister of Transports: Charles Fiterman (PCF)
Minister of State, and Minister of Planning and Territorial Development: Michel Rocard (PS)
Minister of State, and Minister of Research and Technology: Jean-Pierre Chevènement (PS)
Minister of State, and Minister of Justice: Robert Badinter (PS)
Minister of External Relations: Claude Cheysson (PS)
Minister of National Defense: Charles Hernu (PS)
Minister of National Education: Alain Savary (PS)
Minister of Economy and Finances: Jacques Delors (PS)
Minister of the Budget: Laurent Fabius (PS)
Minister of Agriculture: Édith Cresson (PS)
Minister of Industry: Pierre Dreyfus (PS)

Other cabinet ministers included Michel Crépeau (MRG) in Environment, Jack Lang (PS) in Culture, Jean Auroux (PS) in Labour, Jack Ralite (PCF) in Health, André Delelis (PS) in Commerce, and André Henry (PS) in Free Time².

Pierre Mauroy (PS), Prime Minister

The Mauroy government led a very left-wing policy from the start of its term, and the parliamentary majority ratified a 10% increase in the SMIC (minimum wage), and a 25% increase in family allocations. Other measures included a reduction to a 39-hour workweek (from 40), a fifth week of paid vacations.

The most significant measure of 1981 came with the abolition of the death penalty by the National Assembly in mid September 1981. A majority of the RPR, but not Jacques Chirac, voted against, as did a narrow majority of UDF deputies. Almost the entirety of the PS and PCF groups voted in favour. The five UNF deputies voted against, and Royer was noted for his violent speech in opposition at the tribune of the National Assembly. The text narrowly passed the right-wing Senate, with various centrists voting with the PS and PCF in favour.

In December 1981, the government passed the law on nationalizations, which saw the nationalization of numerous industries. The Constitutional Council rejected the first text, but approved a later text re-passed by the Assembly in February 1982.

The government's foreign policy adopted a very critical vis-a-vis of the United States. The Mitterrand presidency condemned the continuing US embargo on Cuba, and Jack Lang (PS), Minister of Culture, stirred controversy by boycotting the American Film Festival in Deauville, Normandy.

In 1982, the government continued its quick and ambitious reform programs. Amongst the reforms of 1982 was the Defferre law on decentralization that continued upon the 1969 reform of the regional council. The new law included the direct election of the regional council, which to that date was composed of representatives of various organizations, unions, and local powers as well as local elected officials.

In the March 4 and 21 cantonal elections, the right scored a narrow victory, but the PS limited the losses to only 10 seats. The PCF, on the other hand, suffered a cold shower with only 16% of the vote and the loss of over 65 seats. On the right, the big winner of the election was the RPR, which won 18% of the vote.

The G7 summit was held in July 1982 in Versailles, France under the direction of President Mitterrand. Also in early July 1982, France won the World Cup by defeating Italy 2-1 in the July 11 final.

However, the government's popularity quickly slided with the emergence of economic worries and talk of recession. Prices and wages were frozen for six months in June 1982. Various industries and stores were forced to reduce prices, which sparked a demonstration by business owners in fall 1982.

¹ Movement of Democrats (MD) was a small party led by left-wing Gaullist Michel Jobert.
² The Ministry of Free Time dealt with youth, sports, pastimes, and tourism.

[Hash]

The Mitterrand Presidency 1983-1984

Elected in 1981 on an ambitious program of socialist reforms, the Mitterrand presidency now faced growing discontent over its handling of the economic crisis. Mauroy had negative approval ratings, and Mitterrand's own ratings had taken a major hit.

By the time of the March 1983 local elections, Mauroy had a 37% approval, but Mitterrand still had a narrow positive rating. The left suffered a major defeat in the municipal elections, but the PCF was the biggest loser, with loses in Reims and Saint-Étienne, two cities it had gained in 1977. The PS also fared relatively poorly, by losing cities like Grenoble or Roubaix, though it held Nantes. In Paris, Jacques Chirac's RPR-UDF lists won a 20-arrondissement grandslam, soundly defeating the PS lists. In Marseille, Gaston Defferre was narrowly re-elected with the narrowest of majorities in terms of seats, despite losing the popular vote to Jean-Claude Gaudin (UDF-PR). Pierre Mauroy resigned as a result of the election, but was re-nominated by Mitterrand. His new government was composed of about the same faces as before, with only a few shuffles. The PCF kept its four cabinet spots. Michel Crépeau (MRG) was moved from Environment to Commerce, with the Environment portfolio being downgraded to a Secretary of State position, given to Huguette Bouchardeau (PSU).

In mid-1983, François Mitterrand announced a new economic policy, abandoning socialist policies in favour of traditional capitalist policies. The past policies of the Socialist government had led to a capital outflow, and the French Franc was in a tough situation. Communist leader Georges Marchais, however, condemned the final blow to the Common Programme, and traditional left-wing voters became disillusioned with the Socialist government. Though the popularity of both Mauroy and Mitterrand dropped, both were convinced that the new pro-market policies would help them in the long term.

On September 4, the far-right National Front took an excellent result in the Dreux local by-election, with over 18% for the FN list led by Jean-Pierre Stirbois. The question of electoral alliances between the parliamentary right (UDF and RPR) and the FN divided the UDF and RPR. Former Prime Minister Michel Poniatowski (UDF) came out in favour of such alliances, and compared it to the Socialist alliances with the far-left Communist Party. He also claimed that the UDF "had no lessons to learn from a party that allied with communists".

On September 29, indirect Senatorial election to renew a third of seats were held. The RPR continued its excellent performance in recent elections with a gain of 16 seats.

UCDP 70 (+5)
PS 68 (-2)
RPR 58 (+16)
UREI 51 (-1)
Democratic Left 25 (-1)
PCF 24 (+1)
MRG 11 (-1)
Non-affiliated 6 (-7)
UNF 5 (+3)

By the end of 1983, the unemployment rate broke 2 million.

The first Savary Law, proposed by the Minister of Education, Alain Savary (PS), was abandoned in early March 1984, after mass protests, one of which had up to two million demonstrators, were held to protect private education.

Attention turned to the June 17, 1984 European elections. The UDF and RPR led a common list under the leadership of Simone Veil (UDF), Lionel Jospin led the PS list, Georges Marchais led the PCF list, Jean-Marie Le Pen led the FN list, Didier Anger led the list of the new Green Party, Olivier Stirn (ex-RPR) led a list of Left Radicals, ecologists, and other independents. Finally, Jean Royer led a UNF list condemning the RPR union with the UDF and took a conservative and eurosceptic tone, similar to that of the RPR in 1979. The Veil UDF-RPR led with a massive lead throughout, with about 45% of voting intentions. Jospin's PS list had only 21% of voting intentions, Marchais polled about 15%, and Le Pen fluctuated between 7 and 8%, a surprisingly high result. The Greens saw their poll numbers fall from 6% to only 2%, while Stirn polled 4% throughout. The election saw a large victory for the parliamentary right (UDF-RPR) with 45% of the vote. The PS polled only 20%, the PCF won a pitiful 13%, and the FN won a record 10%. The Greens defied polls and won 4.9%, just under the threshold, and scored its first real electoral success. The UNF list, led by Jean Royer, won barely 1%. The election was a major defeat for the PCF and a major victory for the FN.

The composition of the French delegation to the European parliament:

UDF-RPR 41 (+3)¹
PS 20 (-3)
PCF 11 (-9)
FN 9 (+9)

Mitterrand asked Alain Savary to abandon the Savary Law, which Savary did. Following this, Savary submitted his resignation to Mitterrand. The entire Mauroy government followed suit.

Laurent Fabius was named Prime Minister to continue the government's new liberal economic policies. In protest, the PCF walked out of the government and joined the opposition in September 1984.

Major cabinet posts, as of July 17, 1984:

Prime Minister: Pierre Mauroy (PS)
Minister of State, and Minister of Planning and Territorial Development: Gaston Defferre (PS)
Minister of Justice: Robert Badinter (PS)
Minister of Defense: Charles Hernu (PS)
Minister of External Relations: Claude Cheysson (PS)
Minister of Economy and Finances: Pierre Bérégovoy (PS)
Minister of Social Affairs, Health and Solidarity: Edmond Hervé (PS)
Minister of National Education: Jean-Pierre Chevènement (PS)
Minister of Agriculture: Michel Rocard (PS)
Minister of the Budget: Laurent Fabius (PS)
Minister of Agriculture: Édith Cresson (PS)
Minister of the Interior and Decentralization: Pierre Joxe (PS)

Other cabinet ministers included Édith Cresson (PS) in International Trade, Michel Crépeau (MRG) in Commerce, Roland Dumas (PS) in European Affairs (and also spokesperson for the government), Michel Delebarre (PS) in Work and Labour, and Huguette Bouchardeau (PSU) in Environment.

In December, the PCF voted against the Socialist budget, sealing the era of PS-PCF governmental co-operation.

¹ Compared to the combined UDF and RPR seat totals in 1979

[Hash]

The Mitterrand Presidency 1985-1986

The new government, led by Laurent Fabius, selected to continue the new liberal economic policy in the wake of the economic crisis, was much more popular than the Mauroy government. However, the new economic policies had alienated the PCF and die-hard socialist voters. However, the popularity of Laurent Fabius was not enough for the PS to win the cantonal elections, held on March 10 and 17 of 1985. The PS and PCF both lost seats and votes compared to the 1979 election (the last time the 1985 seats were up for election). And in 1985, contrarily to 1982, both the PS and PCF took a cold shower. The PS, which had won about 30% of the vote in 1982, fell to 25% and the PCF fell to barely 12%. The UDF dominated for the right, with around 18%, with the RPR taking 17% and DVDs taking around 13%. On the far-right, the FN, which had won around 0.1% in 1982 built on its 1984 EU success and won 8% but only 2 cantons. The FN's success brought up the controversial question of FN-UDF and FN-RPR alliances in local councils, especially a year from the first ever elections to regional councils (which were to be held by one-round 5% threshold PR).

With the cantonal results in the back of his mind, Mitterrand decided to keep his election promise of holding the 1986 legislative elections using proportional representation. Mitterrand saw PR as the only solution to keep a left-wing majority for his policies. The switch was announced in the JO on April 3, and passed by the National Assembly on June 26. The system was a simple 5% threshold proportional vote by department. In addition, the number of seats would be increased to 577. However, the decision was far from popular. On the right, the RPR and UDF criticized the system, which they claimed would strengthen the FN at the RPR-UDF's expense. In his own government, Michel Rocard (PS), Minister of Agriculture, resigned on April 4 in protest over the system, which he said would lead to the election of FN deputies. Jean-Marie Le Pen, the FN leader, said that "the parties of the system are scared of the people's rejection of their corrupt policies".

On July 10, the French secret services, the DGSE, blew up the Greenpeace ship Rainbow Warrior in Auckland.  The opposition demanded the resignation of Charles Hernu (PS), the Minister of Defense. Hernu refused to do so.


The 1986 Legislative Election, Part One

The 1986 elections, scheduled for March 16, 1986, became the new political topic of discussion. In November 1985, in an electoral first, the Prime Minister and the Mayor of Paris, Jacques Chirac (RPR), held a televised debate on policy ahead of the 1986 elections. Chirac criticized the government's economic policies, and ironized on the growth of unemployment (9% by the end of 1985), a subject which Mitterrand had passionately attacked Giscard on during the 1981 campaign. In the debate, the RPR leader also changed his party's tone on economic and European issues. In 1981, he stood on a Eurosceptic platform and policies that reminded voters of US President Ronald Reagan. In 1985, Chirac abandoned dirigiste policies and instead opted for economic liberalism. On Europe, he dropped his eurosceptic tone, something that sent the anti-European RPR voters to the FN or UNF.

On January 6, 1986, the RPR and UDF put aside their past differences on policies and united under a common programme. In numerous departments, they constituted common RPR-UDF lists, but the two parties ran separately in some other department. To Jean Royer, the long-time UNF leader, the RPR's move to the centre was too much. He rejected forming large lists with the RPR-UDF (and most RPR-UDF leaders were against a union with the UNF) and decided to run independent UNF lists in all departments, even his home department of Indre-et-Loire. It was a politically risky move for the UNF, which suffered from terrible ground organization outside of Royer's base in Touraine. However, his move received the support of the old CNIP, which joined the UNF lists. Many CNIP members got spots on UNF lists, most of them in the Paris region. The FN also ran independent lists in every department, and Jean-Marie Le Pen stood at the top of the FN list in Paris. The PS and MRG constituted common lists in most departments, and the PCF ran independent lists everywhere. Bouchardeau (PSU), whose reformist faction had become a minority within the party, got a spot on a PS list in the Doubs. Elsewhere, the PSU either failed to run or ran strongly far-left lists. Ecologists, most of them members of the new Green Party, ran independent lists in most departments. Brice Lalonde stood at the top of a ecologist list in Ille-et-Vilaine.

The RPR-UDF coalition had a large advantage in polls over the PS, with the PCF and FN fighting for third place. In the UNF vs. FN fight for the votes of traditionalist conservative voters, the FN dominated.

Sofres Poll (February 12, 1981)
RPR-UDF 45%
DVD 2%
UNF-CNIP 2%
Right 49%
PS-MRG 26%
PCF 11%
EXG-PSU 3%
DVG 2%
Left 42%
FN 7%
Ecologists 2%

Regional elections were also scheduled for the same day in 22 metro regions.


Next: Election(s) '86

[Hash]

The 1986 Legislative Election

On March 16, 1986, French voters went to the polls in an historic election, held through proportional representation. As voters went to the polls, the polls indicated a significant lead for the right-wing opposition, led by the RPR-UDF.

Sofres Poll (March 13, 1981)
RPR-UDF 43% (-2)
DVD 3% (+1)
UNF-CNIP 2% (-)
Right 49%
PS-MRG 28% (+2)
PCF 10% (-1)
EXG-PSU 2% (-1)
DVG 2% (-)
Left 42%
FN 8% (+1)
Ecologists 2% (-)

Regional elections, the first of the type, were also held that day in 26 regions, 22 of which were in Metropolitan France.

On election day, abstention, which was 30% in the first round of 1981, fell to barely 20%, a monumental 10% drop, comparable to the similar drop in 1967. Abstention was only slightly higher in the regional election. The first estimates for all parties, at 20:00 showed an unexpected good result for the PS-MRG over the RPR-UDF. While still ahead, the total of all RPR-UDF, RPR, and UDF lists was only 40.74% of the votes. The surprise from the right came from the excellent result by the UNF, seen as a fringe list the day before. Royer's party obtained 4.42% of the vote, many of those votes coming from CNIP voters, over 60% of which had voted for the UNF. With 284 seats and 46.3% of the vote, the election was a success for the parliamentary opposition. The PS-MRG defied polls with its honorable 30.11%, and the PCF resisted relatively well with 11.04%, but the result was still an historic low for the Communist Party. The far-left barely broke the 1% line, with the various PSU lists doing very poorly. However, Huguette Bouchardeau, standing on a PS-PSU-MRG list in the Doubs, won a seat. The FN obtained an excellent result, with 10.01% and 40 seats in total. Jean-Marie Le Pen was elected in Paris, in addition to Bruno Megret in the Bouches-du-Rhone and Jacques Peyrat in Alpes-Maritimes. The election was more disappointing for the Greens, whose lists obtained barely 1%. Brice Lalonde's ecologist list in Ille-et-Vilaine won only 2% of the vote, and a Green list in the Haut-Rhin led by Antoine Waechter won only 4%, below the result of the Greens in that department in the regional elections.

RPR 149 (+69)¹
UDF 115 (+56)²
Other right 12 (+7)
UNF-CNIP 8 (+3)³
Right: 284 (+135)
PS 197 (-83)
PCF 50 (+2)
MRG 3 (-11)
Other left 2 (+2)
PSU 1 (+1)
Left: 253 (-89)
FN 40 (+40)

The seat totals in the National Assembly went from 491 in 1981 to 577 in 1986.

French voters made history by defeating the majority of the incumbent President and created a new situation: a President and National Assembly led by two different parties. Some in the UDF, such as Raymond Barre, called on Mitterrand to resign and call new elections to the Presidency. Others, such as Jacques Chirac (RPR) and Charles Pasqua (RPR), called on the new adventure of cohabitation of the left and right. Mitterrand himself favoured that option, telling journalists he preferred "to embark on the adventure of cohabitation than resign today for no reason". On March 20, four days after the PS defeat, Mitterrand nominated Jacques Chirac as Prime Minister, the first Prime Minister to be from a different party than the President.

Regional elections

The RPR-UDF coalition fared even better in the simultaneous regional elections. Out of 22 metropolitan regions, the PS won the presidency of only three of those: the Nord-Pas-de-Calais, the Limousin, and Haute-Normandie. The RPR and UDF split the rest of the regions. In Auvergne, former President Valery Giscard d'Estaing (UDF) was elected and in Aquitaine former Prime Minister Jacques Chaban-Delmas (RPR) was elected. However, in a few regions, the RPR and UDF presidencies relied on minorities, and the divisive question of RPR/UDF-FN alliances came up again, after first being evoked in the wake of the FN's double digit result in Dreux (1983). However, in ten regions the RPR-UDF executive had a majority to rely on.

The FN also obtained a good result in the regional elections, with the FN winning seats in all but one region (Limousin). In regions such as PACA or Alsace, they formed an important group. The ecologists and Greens did better in the regional elections than in the general election, and two Greens were elected in Alsace on a Green list. These two Green councilors became the first two French Greens ever elected to a large legislature. For the Alsatian Green leader Antoine Waechter, it was a "small step in the good direction" for the Greens. Waechter was a founder of the Green Party in 1984 and a candidate on the Green list for the 1984 EU elections.

¹ The RPR elected 81 MPs on independent RPR lists and 68 on RPR-UDF lists.
² The UDF elected 48 MPs on independent UDF lists and 67 on RPR-UDF lists.
³ Of the 8 MPs elected on a UNF-CNIP list, 4 were members of the UNF and 4 were members of the CNIP. Jean Royer was elected in Indre-et-Loire.


Next: The Chirac government, the Chirac years, and then off into campaign '88!

[Хahar 🤔]

Cohabitation.

[Kevin]

Excellent!

[Hash]

The Mitterrand Presidency 1986-1988

On March 20, President Mitterrand nominated Jacques Chirac (RPR) to the office of Prime Minister. The next day, the new Prime Minister announced the composition of the first government of cohabitation.

Major cabinet posts, as of March 21, 1986:

Prime Minister: Jacques Chirac (RPR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Economy, Finances: Edouard Balladur (RPR)
Minister of the Interior: Charles Pasqua (RPR)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Jean-Bernard Raimond (RPR)
Minister of Defense: André Giraud (RPR)
Minister of Justice: Albin Chalandon (RPR)
Minister of Cooperation: Michel Aurillac (RPR)
Minister of Employment and Labour: Philippe Séguin (RPR)
Minister of Culture and Communications: François Léotard (UDF-PR)
Minister of Agriculture: François Guillaume (RPR)
Minister of Industry, Posts, Telecommunications and Tourism :Alain Madelin (UDF-PR)
Minister of National Education: René Monory (UDF-CDS)

Other ministers included Pierre Méhaignerie (UDF-CDS) in Equipment, Bernard Pons (RPR) in DOM-TOM affairs, and André Rossinot (UDF-Rad) in Parliamentary Relations. Former Prime Minister Jacques Chaban-Delmas (RPR) won the Presidency of the National Assembly.

On May 20, 1986; the National Assembly voted to return to a two-round majority voting system. The RPR and UDF voted in favour, as did numerous Socialists. The FN was staunchly opposed, realizing that their 40 seats were the product of proportional representation. Under the old system, the FN would probably have won no seats. The Greens were also opposed. On October 24, the Assembly passed the Pasqua law on constituency redistricting. The new plan, proposed by Charles Pasqua (RPR), kept the number of seats at 577 and created (or removed) single-member constituencies. The left, most notably the PCF, were opposed to the Pasqua redistricting, the PCF feared gerrymandering in favour of the parliamentary majority.

PCF poster criticizing the redistricting of the electoral map

The first goal of the Chirac government was to overturn the economic reforms of the Mauroy and Fabius years. In the 1986 campaign, the RPR-UDF coalition campaigned against the nationalizations. As a result, the new government passed the law on privatizations on July 31, but Mitterrand refused to sign the law. This would be the first in a series of measures that Mitterrand refused to endorse. Chirac was forced to govern through Article 49.3 of the Constitution. By August 1986, Mitterrand had a 57% approval rating, and Chirac had a 48% disapproval. Only months after the victory of the RPR-UDF, the new government failed to convince French voters.

In September, from the 1st to the 30th, France was hit hard by a series of Islamic terrorist bombings. Charles Pasqua, with his reputation as a hard-line conservative, led the crackdown, along with Robert Pandraud (RPR), his delegate charged with security. On September 17, seven died and over 60 were injured. On September 18, Colonel Christian Goutierre was severely injured in a bombing in Beirut, Lebanon. In all ten people died in the wave of attacks, which the Hezbollah claimed responsibility for. Chirac saw his popularity skyrocket to 60%.

On September 28, indirect Senatorial elections to renew a third of the seats were held. The election saw a very strong push of the RPR, based on its success in recent local elections.

RPR 73 (+15)
UC¹ 68 (-2)
PS 64 (-4)
UREI 55 (+4)
Democratic Left 26 (+1)
PCF 18 (-6)
MRG 8 (-3)
UNF 6 (+1)
Non-affiliated 2 (-4)

On immigration, the government toughened regulation after the liberal and open years of Mitterrand 1981 to 1986. In October, 101 Malians were expelled by order of Charles Pasqua. On November 17, the CEO of Renault, Georges Besse, was killed by far-left extremists. The Chirac government accused Mitterrand's past PS governments of being too soft on far-left terrorists. Pasqua and Pandraud began the crackdown on the far-left extremists. In February 1987, the leaders of Action directe, the far-left group responsible for the death of Besse, were arrested by the police.

In November 1986, the government faced another education crisis, that had doomed numerous Ministers in the past, including Alain Savary only a few years prior. Large demonstrations against the Devaquet law on university reform rallied up to 600,000 people in Paris. On December 6, the strikes turned violent. Police killed a demonstrator named Malik Oussekine. The death of Malik Oussekine sparked a huge outcry against the government and the Minister of Universities, Alain Devaquet (RPR). Devaquet resigned. Robert Pandraud sparked outcry when he said that "if I had a son under dialysis (like Oussekine), I'd prevent him from going out and play stupid in a demonstration". Pandraud refused to resign over his comments.

In May 1987, the FN leader sparked a controversy and outcry when he called on the expulsion of immigrants and the isolation of HIV/AIDS patients in Sidatoriums. On May 11, another far-right personality, this time none other than the Butcher of Lyon, Klaus Barbie went on trial in Lyon. On July 4, he was condemned to a life sentence in prison.

On August 14, a referendum was held in New Caledonia on auto-determination or independence. Over 98% voted in favour of staying in France, but the nationalists boycotted the vote.

In early 1988 the National Assembly voted in favour of the first law on campaign finances and political party funding. The law had been proposed by President Mitterrand.

Approval ratings by February 1988:

Mitterrand: Approve 60% Disapprove 36%
Chirac: Disapprove 52% Approve 43%

¹ Centrist Union (UC): New name given to the UCDP group.