Alternate France

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A random timeline, no idea where it will go from here.

1968 Legislative Elections

In June 1968, following the largest strike in French history (the May 1968 events), President Charles de Gaulle decided to dissolve the National Assembly. The 3rd National Assembly, elected in 1967, had a right-wing majority, but the Gaullists needed to rely on the Christian democrats for a workable majority.

By dissolving the Assembly, de Gaulle hoped to solidify a majority for the UDR.

The election resulted in an absolute majority for the UDR on its own. The UDR won over 43% by the first round, inflicting a serious defeat on the PCF (20.02%) and the FGDS (16.53%). 166 deputies were elected by the first round, 124 of which were UDR Gaullists (the Communist also elected 6 deputies by the first round, but the FGDS elected none). Change is compared to the composition of the 1967 National Assembly at the time of dissolution.

UDR 294 (+97)
Independent Republicans 64 (+21)
PDM¹ 27 (-15)
Other right 9 (-)
Right: 394 (+103)
FGDS² 57 (-61)
PCF 34 (-39)
PSU 0 (-3)
Left: 91 (-103)

The Unified Socialist Party (PSU), the only party that actively supported the student riots earlier that year lost all its seats, 3 in total, including Yves Le Foll's seat in Saint-Brieuc. The PCF collapsed, the FGDS lost 61 seats from its 118 seats a year prior. The left's collapse led to implosion of the "united non-communist left" (represented by the FGDS, uniting Socialists and Radicals) created by Mitterand in 1965. In fact, Mitterrand's own party, the Convention of Republican Institutions (CIR) lost all its seat save for Mitterrand in the Nievre. The SFIO later re-created its own independent parliamentary group.

¹ Progress and Modern Democracy (PDM) including the Democratic Centre, CNIP, and CR
² Federation of the Democratic and Socialist Left (FGDS) including the SFIO, UDSR, and Radicals

The Couve de Murville and Chaban-Delmas Government

Charles de Gaulle nominated Maurice Couve de Murville to replace Georges Pompidou as Prime Minister. The Murville government included only 15 ministers, of which most were from the UDR.

Major cabinet posts, as of July 10, 1968:

Prime Minister: Maurice Couve de Murville (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Cultural Affairs: André Malraux (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Social Affairs: Maurice Schumann (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Parliamentary Relations: Roger Frey (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Constitutional Reform and Regionalization: Jean-Marcel Jeanneney (UDR)
Minister of Justice: René Capitant (UDR)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Michel Debré (UDR)
Minister of the Interior: Raymond Marcellin (RI)
Minister of the Armies: Pierre Messmer (UDR)
Minister of the Economy and Finances: François-Xavier Ortoli (UDR)
Minister of National Education: Edgar Faure (UDR)

Other cabinet ministers included Albin Chalandon (UDR) in Equipment and Housing, Jean Chamant (RI) in Transportation, André Bettencourt (RI) in Industry, and Yves Guéna (UDR) in PTT.

In November 1968, Edgar Faure, the Minister of Education introduced his reform of the universities, which ended the Napoleonic universities and replaced them with new universities encouraging autonomy and participation.

On September 22nd 1968, indirect Senatorial elections were held to renew a third of Senators.

RI 54 (-6)
UDR 36 (+6)
RPCD¹ 47 (+9)
PS-PSU 52 (-)
Democratic Left² 43 (-7)
PCF 18 (+4)
CRARS 19³ (-)
Non-affiliated 14 (+3)

Charles de Gaulle submitted an ambitious project of decentralization (creation regions) and a reform of the Senate to the Prime Minister and the National Assembly. With a large majority, the text was approved in its first reading by the Assembly. However, the PCF, FGDS, Radicals, and Democratic Centre (CD) deputies voted against. The reform included the creation of decentralized regional councils, with budgetary autonomy but no legislative autonomy.

Jacques Chaban-Delmas, UDR deputy from Gironde and Prime Minister from June 1969

In June of 1969, Jacques Chaban-Delmas replaced Maurice Couve de Murville as Prime Minister to continue towards the implementation of the planned reforms, which were submitted to referendum for August 1969.

Major cabinet posts, as of June 20, 1969:

Prime Minister: Jacques Chaban-Delmas (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of National Defense: Michel Debré (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Cultural Affairs: Edmond Michelet (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Parliamentary Relations: Roger Frey (UDR)
Minister of Justice: René Pleven (PDM)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Maurice Schumann (UDR)
Minister of the Interior: Raymond Marcellin (RI)
Minister of Economy and Finances: Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (RI)
Minister of National Education: Olivier Guichard (UDR)

The government was split on the issue, with the RI (Giscard d'Estaing) supporting the "no" side and the left united in its opposition. However, the referendum passed, barely, with 51% voting in favour, with 21% abstaining. Charles de Gaulle stayed on as President, after announcing during the campaign his intentions to step down if it failed.

In March 1970, the UDR and its allies won a good result in the cantonal elections (which were historically favourable to the left). The PCF still came out on top in terms of raw votes with around 20% against 17.8% to various right-wing candidates and 15% to official UDR candidates. The SFIO collapsed to barely 14%, even lower than the FGDS' pitiful 16% in 1968.

By June 1970, the Assembly approved the creation of 26 total regions, including 22 in metropolitan France. However, on November 9, 1970, President de Gaulle died in Paris. The country mourned the "man of the 18 juin".

The centrist President of the Senate, Alain Poher (CD) became interim President and was constitutionally responsible for organizing elections. The left scrambled to field a candidate(s)... the UDR had to choose between Georges Pompidou and Jacques Chaban-Delmas and the centrists were divided as to fielding a candidate or not.

¹ Centrist Union of Progressive Democrats (UCDP) composed of CD Senators
² Democratic Left (GD) composed of Radical-Socialist Senators
³ Republican Centre of Rural and Social Action (CRARS) composed of CNIP and some RI Senators

Updated March 12, 2009

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1970 Presidential Election

The left, now divided following its 1968 electoral rout, scrambled to field a common candidate, as in 1965, but the PCF wanted to run its own candidate. Mitterrand, the left's candidate in 1965 was discredited by his actions in 1968 and Guy Mollet's SFIO refused to support a Mitterrand candidacy, as did the Communists. In the centre, Jean Lecanuet was rumoured to be thinking about another run, while Pompidou seemed to be the candidate of the UDR, having received the endorsements of the party heavyweights.

The election date was set by the Constitutional Council for March 7, 1971 and March 21, 1971. In late November of 1970, the interim President, Alain Poher finally announced that he would not be a candidate, leaving the road open for Jean Lecanuet. The left finally ran divided, divided between the hard-line Communist Jacques Duclos, and the Socialist Gaston Defferre. The PSU did not gather enough signatures to field a candidate. Two other candidates also ran, Jean Royer, the traditionalist and conservative Gaullist Mayor of Tours and Alain Krivine of the Trotskyst LCR.

Jean Lecanuet, who had entered the race with good polling numbers, led a campaign based on the rejection of the left's anti-clericalism and Marxism and on the right's Eurosceptism and opposition to NATO. For a moment, it seemed as if his message was striking a chord. Jean Royer, the candidate of the "moral order" running on a platform similar to that of the Poujadists in 1956, attracted attention. Royer led a campaign with "unusual" priorities: the crusade against pornography, abortion and the contraceptive pill. His campaign was also marked by a series of errors, errors which Royer was nonetheless generally successful in minimizing the effects.

Georges Pompidou, candidate of the UDR

Sofres Poll (December 25, 1970)
Georges Pompidou (UDR) 37%
Jean Lecanuet (CD) 29%
Jacques Duclos (PCF) 18%
Gaston Defferre (SFIO) 11%
Jean Royer (Ind. UDR) 4%
Alain Krivine (LCR) 1%

The same poll indicated that Pompidou was leading Lecanuet in the runoff by 53-47.

The late campaign, uneventful and uninteresting, was marked by the discussion of economic and social issues by the candidates. The events of May 1968 were still important campaign events, with Jacques Duclos decrying the Grenelle Accords as too little to workers.

Duclos criticized Lecanuet and Pompidou as "politicians of the same stock" and called on communists and socialists to rally around his candidacy against "Lecanuet's clerical MRP and the authoritarian Gaullists". The parliamentary right under Pompidou was also loosing some of its supporters to the traditionalist conservative Jean Royer.

A first in French politics, the Socialist candidate, Gaston Defferre, an admirer of late American President John F. Kennedy and of the American political system, formed a "ticket" with his "running mate" Pierre Mendès-France, who would likely become Prime Minister if Defferre won. However, this "ticket" did not inspire voters and the SFIO's poll ratings fell from 11% to 9%, while the Communists rose up to 23%.

Sofres Poll (March 1, 1971)
Georges Pompidou (UDR) 35%
Jean Lecanuet (CD) 26%
Jacques Duclos (PCF) 23%
Gaston Defferre (SFIO) 9%
Jean Royer (Ind. UDR) 6%
Alain Krivine (LCR) 1%

Updated March 1, 2008

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note: please discard all posts after this one. timeline is being re-vamped.

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Comments?

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1971 Presidential Election Results

On Sunday, March 7, 1971, over 29 million voters were called to choose their new president in the first round of voting. At 8PM, abstention was recorded to be at at 21.13% (+5.88% over 1965) and pundits all predicted the high probability of a Pompidou-Lecanuet runoff, with a net advantage to the UDR candidate.

Election Results
Abstention: 21.13%
Voting: 78.87%
Blank and Void: 2.13%

Georges Pompidou (UDR) 36.19%
Jacques Duclos (PCF) 23.22%
Jean Lecanuet (CD) 23.21%
Gaston Defferre (SFIO) 13.29%
Jean Royer (DVD) 3.12%
Alain Krivine (LCR) 0.97%

Duclos' lucky entrance into the runoff against the candidate of the UDR alarmed American and other Western newspaper editors. On March 8, the New York Times headline read "Marxist in French election runoff". However, no reaction to the results came from Moscow.
Gaston Defferre called on his voters to abstain from voting in the runoff, while Jean Lecanuet remained silent on an endorsement.


Analysis of the First Round

Electorates

According to the Sofres, Pompidou was able to heavily dominate the seniors vote, while Lecanuet and Duclos dominated the younger vote by a whisker. As expected, workers voted massively for Duclos, who also barely won the unemployed. Pompidou won the vote of the agricultural sector and barely won those working in liberal arts, education, or industry against Lecanuet.

Geography

Pompidou won easily in Corsica, his native region of Auvergne, and in some départements of south-western France (such as the Pyrenées-Atlantique). He also narrowly defeated Jean Lecanuet in the traditional catholic-moderate regions of Bretagne and Alsace. Jacques Duclos won the Nord and the Pas-de-Calais as well as the Bouches-du-Rhone (Marseille) and parts of the suburban area of Paris, most notably the new Seine-Saint Denis department. He also did well in the Red Limousin and in some of the Massif Central departments. Lecanuet obtained his best results in western France and in the Catholic east, but also in his home town of Rouen. Defferre polled well in his home department (Bouches-du-Rhone) and in Radical-Socialist southwestern France. Jean Royer benefited from the favourite son factor in his home turf of Indre-et-Loire, where he polled 33% (compared to his deceiving 3% nationally).


March 8-18, 1971

There pressure increased on the Lecanuet camp to announce their endorsements. By the end of the week, Lecanuet finally called on his electors to support Pompidou in the runoff "only to prevent a Communist victory, rather than to elect Pompidou". It was rumored that in return for such an "endorsement", the UDR would "give" certain constituencies to CD in the 1973 general election ('give' meaning no UDR opposition to a centrist candidate). However, both the UDR and CD denied such an electoral alliance. By the end of the first week, Jean Royer announced his endorsement of Georges Pompidou in the runoff, but also announced his future political ambitions: the creation of a new socially conservative Gaullist party, the Union nationale française (UNF).

However, according to polls, Pompidou did not really need the support of Royer or any other candidate. The last poll gave him 60% to 40% for the Communist candidate. Asked in the same poll, 94% of respondents predicted that Pompidou would win.

Sofres Runoff Poll (March 17, 1971)
Georges Pompidou (UDR) 60%
Jacques Duclos (PCF) 40%

Updated March 1, 2008

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COMMENTS PLEASE.

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1971 Presidential Election Results

The first abstention estimation at 8pm showed that it was slightly lower than in the first round with 20.05% (-1.08% over R1, +4.32% over 1965 R2). Political analysts awaited a strong vote in favour of Pompidou, who, according to most observers, would win a convincing victory.

Results of the Second Round:
Abstention: 20.05%
Voting: 79.95%
Blank and Void: 6.99%

Georges Pompidou (UDR) 56.93%
Jacques Duclos (PCF) 43.07%



Although Pompidou won, he won only by 12.86% instead of 20% as pollsters and analysts had predicted the day before. Numerous Lecanuet and Defferre voters stayed home or spoiled their vote- invalid votes were calculated to be nearly 7%, up from 2.13% in the first round.

Jacques Chaban-Delmas was reconfirmed as Prime Minister the next day and kept his pre-election government.

Updated March 1, 2008 and map revised

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The Second Chaban-Delmas Government

Pompidou, elected on a promise to continue the Gaullist leadership did just that. A month following his election, he asked the National Assembly for support on a vast plan of industrial modernization. His vast plans, which included an amibitious highway construction plan in Paris and Lyon were set out. However, due to the opposition of ecologist groups and the left, the highway plans for Paris and Lyon were soon scrapped.  In August 1971, however, the first RER train line was opened in Paris¹.

In a speech to the National Assembly, Prime Minister Jacques Chaban-Delmas outlined his ambitions for a new society of greater civil liberties, participative industries, and further decentralization. In the same speech, he repeated the statements made by Pompidou during the presidential campaign on his desire for a more competitive public audio-visual service (ORTF). Chaban-Delmas hoped for active competition between the two channels of the ORTF.

On June 23, the EEC approved the adhesion of the United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark, and Norway to the EEC. However, Pompidou, true to his campaign promise, organized a nationwide referendum on that matter. All the parties of the right (UDR, CD, RI) except for Royer's UNF campaigned in favour. On the left, the PCF was against, but the SFIO called on voters to abstain.

Delayed local elections, scheduled for March 7 and 14, were held on April 4 and 11 in order not to coincide with the presidential election.  At stake in the election was the control of all cities (mayors and councillors). The results were a satisfaction for the UDR, who conquered a few cities lost in 1965, mostly in the south-west. Jean Royer won re-election in Tours as the UNF candidate, unopposed by the UDR. The Communists performed deceivingly, losing a few cities in the Nord and Pas-de-Calais departments. The SFIO was able to minimally improve its standing.

On the left, after the 1968 defeat and the poor results of the SFIO in 1971, Alain Savary, the leader of the SFIO (supported by party strongman Guy Mollet) opened negotiations with the Communist Party. The June 1971 SFIO Congress was held in Epinay-sur-Seine in the Parisian region. Mitterrand's small grouping, the CIR was welcomed to the congress, and by the end of the congress, Mitterrand had effectively taken over the SFIO, which became the Socialist Party (PS). The SFIO, in existence since 1905, was dissolved. The new party's leadership, led by Mitterrand, continued negotiations with the Communists and Radicals on a common program for the unity of the left.

Francois Mitterand, leader of the new Socialist Party

On September 22nd 1971, indirect Senatorial elections were held to renew a third of Senators, those elected in 1962.

RI 59 (+5)
UDR 46 (+10)
UCDP 46 (-1)
PS-PSU 43 (-9)
Democratic Left 35 (-8)
PCF 23 (+5)
CRARS 16 (-3)
Non-affiliated 13 (-1)
UNF² 2 (+2)

On April 23, 1972, 70% of French voters approved the enlargement of the EEC. However, 45% of registered voters abstained. The next day, the European Monetary System (SME) was created.

Two new other political parties were born in 1972. Firstly, the old Radical Party, now under the leadership of Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber, refused to co-operate with the PCF in the view of the creation of the Common Program of the Left. Servan-Schreiber also oversaw a sharp transition to the centre-right. The left-wing factions of the Radical Party split from the party and started co-operating with the PS and PCF. The centre-right Radicals joined Lecanuet's CD and various centrist parties to form the Mouvement des reformateurs (MDR). The new parties first electoral test would be the 1973 legislative election.

In July 1972, the Socialists, Left Radicals, and Communists signed the Common Program of the left. On the general theme of "live better and change life", the Common Program proposed a 35-hour work week, a raise in all wages, a generalization of social security, regulation of markets, nationalizing industries, decentralization, and increased civil liberties. The program also called for a foreign policy of peace. Among the foreign policy propositions, the Common Programme favoured the abandonment of France's nuclear capability, and the utopist idea of dissolving both NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The UDR and the centre criticized the left's foreign policy but also the lack of clear financing information for the program.   

Pompidou, feeling at odds with the "new society" of Chaban-Delmas asked him to resign, which he did in July 1972. He was replaced by Pierre Messmer, who nonetheless continued Chaban-Delmas' reform of the ORTF. A third TV station was also created.

Major cabinet posts, as of July 6, 1972:

Prime Minister: Pierre Messmer (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of National Defense: Michel Debré (UDR)
Minister of State, and Minister of Social Affairs: Edgar Faure (UDR)
Minister of Justice: René Pleven (MDR)
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Maurice Schumann (UDR)
Minister of the Interior: Raymond Marcellin (RI)
Minister of Economy and Finances: Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (RI)
Minister of National Education: Joseph Fontanet (MDR)
Minister of Equipment, Housing, and Development: Olivier Guichard (UDR)
Minister of Cultural Affairs: Jacques Duhamel (MDR)
Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development: Jacques Chirac (UDR)

¹ The RER is a suburban train in Paris and its suburbs
² The UNF does not have enough Senators to form a Senate group of its own (15) and the UNF sits with other non-affiliated Senators. For the purpose of this table, they are shown separately from the other non-affiliated Senators.

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I realized that I wasn't PCF-friendly in my map enough for a 56-44 race in the second round, do you think I should revise it?

I'm sorry about Defferre, the Pompidou period is my weak point and I didn't find any indications on a decent site to point towards Defferre's relation with the PCF.

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No Communist France yet.

Very disappointing.

If I was doing such a timeline I'd have started in 1945, not 1968.

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Do an islamic france TL.

Uhm no, I'm doing this one.

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To be continued soon enough

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Do an islamic france TL.

Uhm no, I'm doing this one.

Too bad. A TL with the emirate of Al Firanja would have actually been interesting.

Nothing keeps YOU from doing one.

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Bump

All posts have been revised, colourized etc.

Update coming soon, and I'm not lying!

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1973 coming up tomorrow morning, first thing.

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Very Good

Thankfully you've added French Presidential maps. It would be cool if you had some First Round ones though.....

Little use in that, Lecanuet did well in Brittany and Alsace where Pompidou was in the 40%-50% range. Duclos won the 93, Nord, Pas de Calais, and the Somme.

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1973 Legislative Elections

The left entered the 1973 elections united under the Common Program. The election also saw the entry of public, scientific opinion polls for the first time. The first polls out in November 1972 showed the PS-PCF-Radicals at 42%, to 58% for the UDR-RI-MDR.

The Common Program was the main issue of the campaign. Its defenders pleaded the necessity to nationalize banks and companies which were in a situation of monopoly. The members of the Presidential Majority denounced a collectivist project and warned against the nomination of Communists in the government if the left won. The MDR tried to express a third way rejecting the Marxism of the left and the euroscepticism of the Gaullists.

The race tightened by January, with the right reduced to 52%. However, both the PS and PCF numbers changed little, never lower than 40% but never above 49%.

Sofres Poll for Le Figaro (February 24, 1973)
UDR-RI 36%
MDR 15%
UNF 3%
Right 54%
PCF 23%
PS-Rad 19%
PSU 4%
Left 46%

Abstention fell to 18% by the first round of voting. In the first round, the UDR-RI won around 32% to 22% to the Communists. The PS did relatively well with 20%, but failed to win more votes than the Communists. The MDR won 17%, the UNF surprised observers with 5% and the PSU took 4%.

UDR 179 (-105)
Independent Republicans 60 (-4)
MDR 54 (+27)
Other right 7 (-2)
UNF 2 (+2)
Right: 302 (-92)
PS-MRG 112 (+55)
PCF 73 (+39)
PSU 3 (+3)
Left: 188 (+97)

While the right still had the absolute majority, the UDR did not have the absolute majority by itself. The MDR had done well, gaining 27 seats since 1968. The Socialists and Communists gained 94 seats in total, while the PSU gained 3 seats, lost in 1968.

The Sofres exit poll showed that the Communists had lost votes among workers compared to 1971, with only 37% of workers voting PCF, compared to 42% in 1971. The Socialists made inroads among employees; the PS was only 4% behind the UDR-RI in that category. Among voters identifying as leftists, the Socialists largely dominated, with 50% to 30% for the Communists. In 1971, it had almost been vice-versa, with Duclos dominating left-leaning voters. On the right, the MDR won only 35% of centrists, with 43% of centrists choosing the UDR-RI. The Socialists did relatively well among centrists too, with 13%. The UDR dominated right-wing voters with 71% and far-right voters with 88%.

Following the elections, Pierre Messmer re-shuffled his cabinet. Among the new faces, Jean Taittinger (UDR) in Justice, Michel Jobert (left-wing Gaullist) in Foreign Affairs, and Robert Galley (UDR) in Defense.

The Messmer Government

Pierre Messmer was a classical and conservative Gaullist. Amongst UDR deputies, he was preferred over Chaban-Delmas. Centrists, however, preferred Chaban-Delmas' progressivism to his conservatism.

The first crisis faced by the new government was the international oil crisis as a result of the Yom Kippur War in the Middle East. The OPEC decided to increase oil prices considerably, but France was not part of the embargo. However, the government saw the energy dependency of France. In December, the Arab nations lowered production and increased prices by 25%, the price of crude oil went from 5,092 $ to 11,651 $.  In March 1974, the government adopted a plan of investments in nuclear technology to end the energetic dependency of France.

In late September, in the cantonal elections, the Presidential Majority (UDR-DVD-RI-MDR-UNF) won, but lost 2% compared to 1970. To the Socialist's deception, they failed to win more votes than the Communists, who remained stagnant at 22%. The PS won 21%.

On March 11 to 13, images of President Pompidou's frail face increased the rumours on his sickness. While the government kept the information secret, Pompidou's facial changes were due to Waldenström macroglobulinemia. On April 2, 1974 Pompidou died in Paris and Alain Poher (MDR) became President by interim once more.

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1974 Presidential Election

Rumours on Pompidou's health had been circulating since late 1973, and the parties had, in private, started planning for an early vote. As Alain Poher became President on April 2, the parties formally started looking for candidates.

The left, unlike in 1971, was now committed to fielding a common Socialist (and not a Communist) candidate that would rally the left under the Common Program. That candidate, was certain to be Francois Mitterrand, the leader of the new Socialist Party and deputy from the Nièvre department. On April 8, as Valéry Giscard d'Estaing announced his candidacy from Chamalières, the PS, in an extraordinary congress, confirmed the candidacy of Mitterrand. His candidacy received support from unions (CGT, CFDT etc.) and later from the PSU; which had, at one time, toyed around with the idea of a Charles Piaget candidacy. The Left Radicals and the Communists joined the PS in confirming Mitterrand one day later. Mitterrand became the candidate of the "Union of the Left". Even if some Communists had showed their coldness towards the Mitterrand candidacy, the party nonetheless actively joined the campaign.

On April 4, two days after the death of Pompidou, former UDR Prime Minister Jacques Chaban-Delmas declared his candidacy. However, his progressive ideas were far from being accepted by the entire UDR. Pierre Messmer, urged by conservative Gaullists such as Jacques Chirac or
Marie-France Garaud, declared his interest at one time, but on April 10, he dropped out; as did the Minister of Social Affairs, Edgar Faure. Chaban-Delmas won the support of the UDR on April 12. However, the conservative factions of the UDR and its traditionalist ally, the UNF, rallied the candidacy of Chaban-Delmas very reluctantly. Chaban-Delmas received, on April 13, the support of the Progressive Democrats (DP), a strongly pro-government component of the MDR led by Jacques Duhamel, the Minister of Cultural Affairs.

On April 6, Jean Lecanuet announced his intentions not to run for President a third time, leaving the centrist field wide open for Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, leader of the Independent Republicans (RI) and Finance Minister. On April 8, from his hometown of Chamalières in the Puy-de-Dome, Giscard announced his candidacy. On April 9, the RI's 60 deputies endorsed his candidacy unanimously, and on April 11, all MDR (led by Jean Lecanuet) parties except the DP endorsed his candidacy and Lecanuet actively campaigned for him.

Other candidates joined the race for the presidency over the month of April and early May. The first female candidate, Arlette Laguiller, jumped into the race for the far-left Workers Struggle (LO); 70-year old René Dumont ran as the first ecologist candidate ever; Alain Krivine ran for the LCR (Krivine had also been a candidate in 1971); Bertrand Renouvin, the left-wing monarchist; and Guy Héraud, a European federalist candidate. In late April, Jean Royer, the leader of the UNF and Mayor of Tours decided to announce his candidacy, citing the lack of conservative candidates.

Giscard's campaign decided, more or less, to ignore Chaban-Delmas' candidacy and focus on Mitterrand. Instead of using the right's traditional anti-communist tactics against Mitterrand and the left, Giscard focused on the "generational" difference between the two. To the centrist candidate, Mitterrand represented the defunct Fourth Republic and political longevity, while he was the candidate of the people. To emphasize this new image, Giscard was seen playing an instrument, football, or commanding an helicopter. A struggling Chaban-Delmas re-used his government's "New Society" in the election and ran a campaign that distanced itself from traditional Gaullism. He did not stress foreign policy issues, but instead social issues. His candidacy still attracted widespread criticism from the conservative wing of the party, but also from Jean Royer, who painted both Chaban-Delmas and Giscard as socially liberal centrists. In early May, around 40 UDR deputies, including Jacques Chirac, Pierre Juillet, and Marie-France Garaud, joined the presidential campaign of Valéry Giscard d'Estaing. The UDR was now split open, with Chaban-Delmas fighting to keep his poll ratings up.

As to polls, they changed drastically over the course of the campaign. The first Sofres poll in early April showed Chaban-Delmas second, with Giscard 3 points behind him. In late April, a Publimetrie showed him drop to 19%, 10 points behind Giscard (29%) and far behind Mitterrand (42%). Royer and the others had 10%.

Valery Giscard d'Estaing, the RI-MDR candidate

Sofres Poll (April 30, 1971)
Francois Mitterand (PS-PCF-MRG) 36%
Valery Giscard d'Estaing (RI-MDR) 30%
Jacques Chaban-Delmas (UDR) 16%
Jean Royer (UNF) 8%
Rene Dumont (Ecologist) 2%
Arlette Laguiller (LO) 2%
All Others (LCR, NAF, PFE) 1%

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Royer 8%.
It's a joke ?

Royer is less of a joke in this timeline.

Remember he was at 9% in my 1971 timeline and got 3%.

In RL, he polled up to 7%.

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I relly doubt that the beginning of the 70's was a prosperous period for the social conservatives in France.
But why not ! I just hope he will never be President here...

Polling 7% isn't a lot. You can't say from 8% in polls for a social conservative that the era is automatically prosperous for social conservatism.

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No, but there is some other evidence of that. Neuwirth and  Veil laws, the total failure of Royer in 74, Chaban and VGE popularity among right-wing electorate...
It will change at the end of the 70's and even more with the election of Mitterand. The UDF was then less and less popular, and the RPR was very conservative on social issues at this time.

Remember that this is an alternate history; some things obviously need to be different.

I'd also think Royer's failure was partly due to the joke his candidacy became. He got pissed at a rally at some guys, his wife said some stupid things, the whole girl getting naked in Toulouse, he went cuckoo on porn and abortion etc.
At the start, he was polling 6-7 percent, and dropped to 5, 4, and 3% IIRC. Royer is comparable to de Villiers; localized support (Vendee for de Villiers and Indre-et-Loire for Royer), similar Christian conservative ideas, long-time dominance of local politics in their areas (de Villiers in the department of Vendee, Royer as Mayor of Tours until 1995) etc. Hint... Royer's UNF I created will take a role similar to the LDI/MPF (if that isn't obvious yet).

And once again, I don't count 8% as a big success; and he probably won't get 8% in this story.

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and he probably won't get 8% in this story.

Well, it will be a great story. I really hat this guy.

I personally don't hate him, I find that he's an irrelevant joke. Like de Villiers.

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Update soon?

Maybe tonight. I need to update by database with 2002-2007 by-elections first; which isn't an easy task.

If not tonight, tomorrow for sure.

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1974 Presidential Election Results

On Sunday, May 5, 1974, over 30 million voters were called to choose their new president in the first round of voting. The campaign had captivated the minds of  voters and the early  turnout estimates placed abstention at a record low, 15.02% (-6.11% over 1971), after a record high in 1971.

Election Results
Abstention: 15.02%
Voting: 84.98%
Blank and Void: 1.02%

François Mitterrand (PS-PCF-MRG) 42.79%
Valéry Giscard d’Estaing (RI-MDR) 32.13%
Jacques Chaban-Delmas (UDR) 17.02%
Jean Royer (UNF) 4.22%
Arlette Laguiller (LO) 1.98%
René Dumont (Ecologist) 1.01%
Alain Krivine (LCR) 0.39%
Guy Héraud (FED) 0.24%
Bertrand Renouvin (NAR) 0.22%

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Yay Mitterand!

Don't cry victory too early, nothing is decided yet. You have to remember he is the only candidate of the parliamentary left.

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Analysis of the First Round

Electorates

According to the Sofres vote breakdown, Giscard d'Estaing, like Pompidou in 1971, won among those over 65, but trailed Mitterrand by 24% among those younger than 34. While Mitterrand still won the 35-49 and 49-65,  Giscard d'Estaing trailed by less. Mitterand also won the male and female votes, but Giscard and Chaban-Delmas both did better among females than males.

On an employment basis, Giscard won among farmers, small shopkeepers/artisans, and those in liberal arts. Among those in liberal arts, Chaban did very well, winning 27% of that category, a few points behind Mitterrand. Mitterrand easily won workers with more than 50%, winning most of Duclos' 1971 electorate. He also won among employees and retired/inactive workers.

Mitterrand dominated the vote of those identifying as leftists, winning it 85% to 5% (for Giscard). Mitterand won only 9% of centrists, while Giscard won 56% and Chaban won 26%. Ironically, Giscard did even better among rightists, winning them 58-31 against Chaban-Delmas. Giscard also won far-right voters, with over 60%.

Geography

The significant raw vote difference between Mitterrand and Giscard in the first round gave Mitterrand victory in most departments, from the generally socialist ones to more right-wing ones, where Chaban-Delmas and Giscard split the centre-right vote.



Mitterand won over 50% in numerous southern departments that were generally favourable for the left, such as the Aude or Ariège. He won Provence, but the left lost numerous votes compared to their 1950 levels in those areas, such as the Var. He also did well in the rural Communists areas of Limousin, Allier, and his home department of the Nièvre. Mitterand won the Nord-Pas-de-Calais and the Aisne by large margins, industrial regions where Communists did well. While he was defeated in Paris, he won the eastern suburbs of Seine-Saint-Denis and the Val-de-Marne, two departments also dominated by the PCF.

Giscard's vote reflected very much the traditional Catholic lands that favoured the MRP under the Fourth Republic. Apart from the Socialist holdout in the Côtes du Nord, he won all Breton departments and most departments in the Pays de la Loire. He also won Alsace, another traditionally Catholic region. In his home region of Auvergne and the surrounding departments of Aveyron and Lozère (two other Catholic regions), he benefited also from a favourite son factor, narrowly winning his own department of Puy de Dome.

Chaban-Delmas did well in his home department of Gironde, but failed to win it, even if he did poll over 30%. His support split into the other neighboring departments of Aquitaine, coming in  second in a good number of them.

Royer increased from his 33% in Indre-et-Loire in 1971 to poll 37% and narrowly beat Mitterand (who won 36.5%) for first place. He polled 20% in the neighboring department of Indre and over 7% in a few other departments in the Val de Loire and Pays de la Loire. Elsewhere, he either lost votes compared to 1971 or minimally increased his marginal standing.

Arlette Laguiller's map ironically did not reflect the industrialized working-class departments of the Nord, but instead the rural regions in the Limousin. Dumont did well in the east (Rhône-Alpes, Alsace) and also in Ile-de-France, overall in the better off and richer areas while doing poorly in working-class regions of the North.