Indiana Governor 2008: Daniels Expands War Chest (user search)
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  Indiana Governor 2008: Daniels Expands War Chest (search mode)
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Author Topic: Indiana Governor 2008: Daniels Expands War Chest  (Read 3503 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,489
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« on: July 17, 2007, 11:43:51 AM »
I am inclined to think that 1 out of the 2 are most likely to go and I think Daniels is the more likely one.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,489
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2007, 09:55:30 AM »
« Edited: July 18, 2007, 10:12:04 AM by Quincy »
As I recall, while Kerry was leading in MO in the summer of 2004, Blunt was trailing McCaskill and then the race changed in the fall. I think that it is a still a tossup. Daniels on the other hand has raised consumer taxes and I think it is a pitfall for him in IN. Blunt has never raised taxes in MO.  I think both are tossups at this point.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,489
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2007, 01:00:41 PM »
I didn't say that Blunt was going to win, he isn't out of it either. With GOP probably carrying MO this election cycle and the Dems winning key congressional districts in IN I think both states are going to go down to the wire.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,489
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2007, 01:51:13 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2007, 01:55:54 PM by Quincy »
Quote from: Alcon on July 18, 2007, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: Quincy on July 18, 2007, 09:55:30 AM
As I recall, while Kerry was leading in MO in the summer of 2004

Kerry only ever led one poll in Missouri, a Zogby in May.  A July Gallup showed a tie.  The results were close-ish throughout the summer but pulled away increasingly in September.

Some may not think online Zogby polling is accurate, but the online polling of Zogby shows Kerry leading in MO all of July and most of August.  http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html.

As for the races of IN and MO. I wasn't saying that Blunt was going to win, he is clearly the most vulnerable GOP incumbant governor out there. But if anyone can come back is Blunt, he did it against a top notch candidate like McCaskill so he can do it the same. Blunt is more likely to come back from election defeat than Daniels, that was the point I was trying to get across.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,489
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2007, 08:28:01 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2007, 08:29:44 PM by Quincy »
Zogby did have the VA race a battleground in 2006 before every other pollster, when most pollsters had it Allen favorite. I think sometimes you have to balance the national polls with the Zogby polls.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,489
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2007, 01:11:42 PM »
The national journal/Hotline newspaper had Kerry ahead in MO as well in the summer of 2004.  So, I wasn't going solely on Zogby flawed methology.
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