UK General Election Date Announced

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not going to comment on contemporary stuff until I've worked through some interesting census stuff (more on that at some point), but on a few historical points...

I'm sure that Michael Portillo once thought that too

Usually. The key word is usually

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True o/c

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I have to disagree here; in many working class areas (typically the sort that mirror closely areas full of "Reagan Democrats" in the States) 1987 was worse for Labour than 1983. What you had in 1987/92 was, on the one hand, the final collapse of the once large traditional Working Class Tory vote in old industrial areas and a steady erosion of support amongst the professional section (especially in the public sector) of the middle class and on the other a big increase in Labour support amongst low-ish income white collar workers (much of which was taken directly from the Alliance). I think this is shown off quite well by the fact that after 1992 Hornsey and Cambridge had Labour M.P's while and Edmonton and Batley didn't (which seems as absurd now as it would have done a decade before 1992). In many respects voting patterns here were becoming much more American.

[afleitch]

Oh I'd agree with that. I was just generalising general shifts putting the '79ers' into context. Really, as you've probably guessed we're looking at a whole new battleground in 2009/2010 which, if current trends stick will see an unwinding of the allegiances (and shifts between them) that we've seen in the UK since 1979.

Ideologically, the Tories have shifted from 'post-Thatcherite' politics and political concerns, something that suprisingly Labour have failed to do (and in my opinion must do if they want to win) Now this doesn't quite mean that we're now in a post-Blair era; it's too early to determine the impact Blairism has had, though the Conservatives apparent acceptance of high levels of public spending and taxation, at least initially is telling. What it means now is that Thatcherite achievements and failures are no longer the benchmarks on which to base policy or reaction to economic and social situations.

In my own opinion, the Tories are moving back to their '79-'82/3' positioning. The Tories, while led by Thatcher were not Thatcherite. Economically they certainly were not Thatcherite that Keith Joseph fed ideology came later but that's an essay in itself.

[afleitch]

I think Brown will wait until the scandals has been forgotten or a tory scandal emerges, but I can only see 1 victory at the next election (that sounds really odd, like 2 people could win)...unfortunately.

Scandals are affecting the Tories less and less. A few years ago the Conway scandal would have floored us. Now the public are fairly unmoved. Remember that scandals in themselves don't shift the polls only if they are part of something wider. It's not scandal alone that has caused this government trouble.