TR wins in 1912

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The First Term of Ronald Reagan

In his Inaugural Address, President Reagan speaks to the economic concerns of many Americans, when he says, “The economy must be made great again, so that our children may enjoy the prosperity that we have enjoyed.”  Reagan, like his predecessors, creates a Cabinet reflecting all types of views, and from all Parties.

Secretary of State: George P. Schultz (R-NY)
Secretary of Treasury: W. Michael Blumenthal (P-NJ)
Secretary of Defense: Donald Rumsfeld (P-IL)
Attorney General: Richard Kleindienst (R-AZ)
Secretary of the Interior: Robert W. Straub (P-OR)
Secretary of Agriculture: David L. Boren (D-OK)
Secretary of Commerce: Juanita M. Kreps (D-NC)
Secretary of Labor: William Brock (D-TN)
Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare: Joseph A. Califano, Jr. (P-NY)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Moon Landrieu (D-LA)
Secretary of Transportation: Elizabeth Dole (R-KS)
Secretary of Energy: James R. Schlesinger (R-NY)

Immediately after taking office, Reagan asks Congress to pass the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1977.  Intended to help lift the nation out of the recession it had been in since 1975, the ERTA reduced marginal income tax rates in the United States by 25% over three years.

Despite having strong support from both the conservative Democrats, and Republicans, the ERTA is opposed strongly by Progressives, who argue that the ERTA will do nothing to help the economy, but will only help the rich get richer.

For several weeks, the Congressional debate rages on, with the debate becoming increasingly hostile.  Throughout, Reagan attempts to soothe liberal concerns about the ERTA; he finally promises to make concessions on other issues, and the ERTA passes on May 8, by a vote of 53-47 in the Senate; on May 12, it passes the House 262-173.

However, as soon as the ERTA controversy fades away, the issue of abortion rears its head again, as Senator Helms introduces his Amendment.  Unlike in previous years, when the Amendment was opposed by the President, Reagan supports the Amendment, and campaigns privately for it.

For almost two months, Congress debates the Helms Amendment, with increasing hostility.  On June 27, three days before the vote, Senator James Eastland (D-MS), a supporter of the Amendment, says the opponents of the Amendment are, "G-dless, hate filled heathens, who will one day get what they deserve."  The speech doesn't help, and on June 30, by a vote of 58-42, the Amendment falls 9 votes short of passing.  President Reagan, although upset, does not comment publicly, although he privately blames Eastland for the defeat.

In January, 1978, Reagan signs the Airline Deregulation Act, which removed government control from commercial aviation and expose the passenger airline industry to market forces, which Reagan had advocated during the campaign.

By April, 1978, with the economy still in a recession, Reagan signed the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1978; TEFRA rescinded some of the effects of the Economic Recovery Tax Act.  The scheduled increases in accelerated depreciation deductions were repealed, the excise taxes on cigarettes were temporarily doubled, and excise taxes on telephone service temporarily tripled.

In return for signing the hikes, Reagan received a promise from Congress for a $3 reduction in spending for every $1 increase in taxes.

The 1978 Congressional Elections

With the economy still in a recession, the Democrats suffer severe losses in both Houses.  However, in Mississippi, James Eastland retires, and is replaced by moderate Democrat Thad Cochran.

House Results:
Democrats: 196 (-34)
Progressives: 192 (+45)
Republicans: 47 (-11)

Senate Results:
Democrats: 37 (-5)
Progressives: 34 (+4)
Republicans: 29 (+1)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

A fine update, Ben.

How much more stimulation does the economy need to settle? It seems everything Reagan tries just does not work.

At this point, the major problem is that people aren't spending enough.  Unemployment has gone down since Reagan took office, but people still are making personal budget cuts.  In addition, the price of oil has gone up significantly in recent years, so people are taking fewer vacations, and spending less on tourism.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In January 1979, President Reagan visits Iran to meet with Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the monarch of Iran, and to discuss US aid to help the Shah deal with a revolution being led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.  Reagan privately promises to give the Shah whatever aid he needs, although no public statement is made.

Several days later, Reagan is forced to live up to his word when the Shah requested a massive number of American troops to help keep him in power.  Despite his previous promise, Reagan, acting on the advice of Secretary of State Schultz and Armed Services Chairman Stennis, declines to send military aid.

On January 20, the Shah and the empress left Iran at the demand of Prime Minister Dr. Shapour Bakhtiar to scenes of spontaneous joy and the destruction of almost every sign of the Pahlavi dynasty.

On February 1, Ayatollah Khomeini, leader of the Revolution, returns to Tehran, being greeted by several million Iranians.

On the day of his arrival, Khomeini made clear his fierce rejection of Bakhtiar's regime, declaring, “I will relegate him to the ash heap of history!”  He quickly makes Mehdi Bazargan his own competing Prime Minister on February 4.  Within a short amount of time, soldiers began to defect to Khomeini's side.  On February 9 at about 10 P.M., a fight broke out between loyal Immortal Guards and pro-Khomeini rebel Homafaran of Iran Air Force. Khomeini responded by declaring jihad on loyal soldiers who did not surrender immediately.

The final collapse of the provisional non-Islamist government came at 2 p.m. on February 11 when the Supreme Military Council declared itself “neutral in the current political disputes… in order to prevent further disorder and bloodshed.”

Shortly after Khomeini consolidated power, Reagan receives a request from the Shah allowing him to enter the United States to receive treatment for cancer.  The American embassy in Tehran, as well as most of Reagan’s Cabinet and Congressional leaders vigorously oppose the United States granting his request; however, after his wife tearfully begs him to consider what a good Christian would do, Reagan finally gives in, and allows the Shah to enter the United States on October 30.

On November 4, 1979, the revolutionary group Muslim Student Followers of the Imam's Line, angered at Reagan’s decision to allow the Shah into the United States, occupies the American embassy in Tehran and took 52 U.S. diplomats hostage.  When Reagan asks what the Iranians want in return for the hostages, the Iranians make four demands:
1.   The return of the Shah to Iran for trial,
2.   The return of the Shah's wealth to the Iranian people,
3.   An admission of guilt by the United States for its past actions in Iran, plus an apology, and
4.   A promise from the United States not to interfere in Iran's affairs in the future.

Refusing, Reagan begins by issuing Executive Order 12170, which allowed the freezing of all Iranian assets held within the United States.  When this failed, Reagan considered military options, and finally settled on Operation Eagle Claw, on December 20; however, the attempt backfired horribly on Reagan, resulting in the death of 8 soldiers, and the wounding of another 4.

In his State of the Union on January 27, Reagan, looking the worse for wear, apologizes for the disaster, and begs the families of the hostages to forgive him.  Despite his plea, his approval rating falls to a pathetic 23%, with 71% disapproving.

Despite his unpopularity, and continued failures to secure the release of the hostages, Reagan announces on February 1 that he will seek reelection.  However, he is faced with a surprising challenge by Massachusetts Governor Edward Kennedy, who announces on February 7 that he will run against Reagan, “To save the Democratic Party from sure annihilation.”

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The 1980 Presidential Election

In a Gallup Poll on April 16, 1980, a pathetic 29% of Americans approve of President Reagan, while 67% disapprove, and 4% have no opinion.  This leads to multiple challengers on both sides.

The 1980 Progressive National Convention

Very early on, 1976 Vice Presidential nominee Mike O'Callaghan of Nevada declares for the nomination, and is endorsed by 1976 Presidential nominee Charles Mathias.  With strong backing by the Party elders, no other challenger comes forward, and O'Callaghan selects Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska as his running mate.

The 1980 Democratic National Convention

President Reagan, with his approval ratings in the crapper, faces a major challenge from Governor Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts, who declares that his goal is to “Save the Democratic Party from sure annihilation.”

1980 Democratic Primaries:
February 21st (Iowa)
Reagan: 52%, Kennedy: 48%.

February 26th (New Hampshire)
Kennedy: 64%, Reagan: 36%.

March 4th (Massachusetts, Vermont)
Massachusetts: Kennedy: 93%, Reagan: 7%.
Vermont: Kennedy: 74%, Reagan: 26%.

March 11th (Alabama, Florida, Georgia:
Alabama: Reagan: 61%, Kennedy: 39%.
Florida: Kennedy: 54%, Reagan: 46%.
Georgia: Reagan: 57%, Kennedy: 43%.

March 18th (Connecticut, Illinois, New York)
Connecticut: Kennedy: 65%, Reagan: 35%.
Illinois: Reagan: 51%, Kennedy: 49%.
New York: Kennedy: 55%, Reagan: 45%.

March 25th (Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Minnesota, Virginia, Wyoming:
Alaska: Reagan: 52%, Kennedy: 48%.
Arkansas: Reagan: 67%, Kennedy: 33%.
California: Reagan: 82%, Kennedy: 18%.
Colorado: Reagan: 51%, Kennedy: 49%.
Delaware: Kennedy: 57%, Reagan: 43%.
Minnesota: Kennedy: 54%, Reagan: 46%.
Virginia: Reagan: 62%, Kennedy: 38%.
Wyoming: Reagan: 57%, Kennedy: 43%.

April 1st (Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina:
Louisiana: Reagan: 53%, Kennedy: 47%.
Michigan: Kennedy: 54%, Reagan: 46%.
New Jersey: Kennedy: 55%, Reagan: 45%.
Pennsylvania: Kennedy: 52%, Reagan: 48%.
Rhode Island: Kennedy: 67%, Reagan: 33%.
South Carolina: Reagan: 56%, Kennedy: 44%.

April 8th (Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio:
Arizona: Reagan: 59%, Kennedy: 41%.
Hawaii: Kennedy: 62%, Reagan: 38%.
Idaho: Reagan: 58%, Kennedy: 42%.
Indiana: Kennedy: 50%, Reagan: 50%.
Kentucky: Reagan: 56%, Kennedy: 44%.
Maryland: Kennedy: 57%, Reagan: 43%.
Missouri: Kennedy: 51%, Reagan: 49%.
Nevada: Reagan: 61%, Kennedy: 39%.
Ohio: Reagan: 52%, Kennedy: 48%.

April 15th (District of Columbia, Kansas, Mississippi:
District of Columbia: Kennedy: 90%, Reagan: 10%.
Kansas: Reagan: 57%, Kennedy: 43%.
Mississippi: Reagan: 64%, Kennedy: 36%.

April 22nd (Washington, Wisconsin)
Washington: Kennedy: 55%, Reagan: 45%.
Wisconsin: Kennedy: 53%, Reagan: 47%.

May 6th (Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Texas)
Montana: Reagan: 54%, Kennedy: 46%.
North Dakota: Kennedy: 51%, Reagan: 49%.
Oregon: Kennedy: 57%, Reagan: 43%.
Texas: Reagan: 55%, Kennedy: 45%.

May 13th (New Mexico, Utah, West Virginia:
New Mexico: Kennedy: 57%, Reagan: 43%.
Utah: Reagan: 61%, Kennedy: 39%.
West Virginia: Kennedy: 52%, Reagan: 48%.

May 27th (Maine, Nebraska, North Carolina, Tennessee:
Maine: Kennedy: 75%, Reagan: 25%.
Nebraska: Reagan: 56%, Kennedy: 44%.
North Carolina: Reagan: 71%, Kennedy: 29%.
Tennessee: Kennedy: 50%, Reagan: 50%.

June 18th (South Dakota and Oklahoma:
South Dakota: Kennedy: 55%, Reagan: 45%.
Oklahoma: Reagan: 59%, Kennedy: 41%.

Reagan: 26 states
Kennedy: 25 states

Entering the Convention, Reagan has a slim majority of delegates, but Kennedy attempts to persuade them that Reagan cannot win, and they should nominate him instead.  The ploy doesn’t work, and Reagan finally wins the nomination of the first ballot by a very slim margin.  He and Carter pledge to win in November, and Kennedy is given a prime time speaking slot.

The 1980 Republican National Convention

The Republicans nominate Senator Henry Bellmon of Oklahoma; he selects Richard A. Snelling of Vermont as his running mate.

The 1980 Presidential Election

Despite polls showing them ahead by as much as 25 points in October, O'Callaghan and Gravel campaign tirelessly until the end, in case the polls are wrong.  On election day, they become the first Progressive ticket to win since 1956, in a sweeping landslide.

Mike O'Callaghan/Mike Gravel: 46% PV, 428 EV
Ronald Reagan/Jimmy Carter: 28% PV, 99 EV
Henry Bellmon/Richard Snelling: 26% PV, 11 EV

The 1980 Congressional Elections

In what will be termed the “O'Callaghan Revolution”, the Progressives make massive gains in Congress, giving them sweeping majorities in both Houses for the first time in almost 30 years.

House Results:
Progressives: 250 (+58)
Democrats: 137 (-59)
Republicans: 48 (+1)

Senate Results:
Progressives: 47 (+13)
Republicans: 32 (+3)
Democrats: 21 (-16)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I am looking forward to Mike O'Callaghan's shining city on the hill.

Also, will Harry Reid play any role in the O'Callaghan administration?

Harry Reid will not play a major role; he is instead running for Congress in 1982, as a Progressive.

What is the US doing for energy?  The way WWII worked out, the nuclear bomb wasn't developed—and without that display of power, there also wouldn't have been nuclear power plants.  The US uses 19% nuclear power, and France uses a whopping 79%.

In addition, did OPEC form?  If it did, it had a lot less effect here in the 70's than in OTL.

The US is much more focused on alternative energy sources, such as wind and solar; President Jackson was a big supporter of such programs, and most developed nations use alternative energy more than IRL.

OPEC did indeed form, although it has had less power than IRL, in part due to less use of foreign oil by the rest of the world.

Sweet! President Reagan lost in a landslide in 1980

An excellent update as always. Although I am pleased with a Progressive victory in 1980, I'm upset that it was not Senator Charles Mathias of Maryland leading the Progressive charge against President Reagan in the 1980 Presidential Election. Speaking of Charles Mathias, will Mathias be apart of the O'Callaghan Administration possibly as Attorney-General (as he was Chairman of the Judicary Committee in RL).

Anywho, I do have one question regarding your timeline and that is about John Warner. Firstly what party is Warner apart of in this alternative universe? And will he appear anytime soon in the TL?

Senator Mathias will not be Attorney General, as he would much rather be Chairman of Judiciary, where he feels he can do more good.

John Warner served as Secretary of the Navy under President Roosevelt from 1964-1969, Ambassador to NATO from 1969-1972, Ambassador to the UK from 1972-1977, and was elected to the Senate from Virginia as a Democrat in 1978, where he is currently serving.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The First Term of Mike O'Callaghan

The first Progressive to be elected President since Earl Warren, O'Callaghan faces a bevy of difficult decisions upon taking office.  His first decision, his Cabinet, is a break with previous administrations, as it is composed almost exclusively of Progressives.

Secretary of State: Frank Church (P-ID)
Secretary of Treasury: Bob Packwood (P-OR)
Secretary of Defense: Caspar Weinberger (P-CA)
Attorney General: Edward Kennedy (D-MA)
Secretary of the Interior: Jay Hammond (P-AK)
Secretary of Agriculture: J. James Exon (D-NE)
Secretary of Commerce: Howard Cannon (P-NV)
Secretary of Labor: Harrison A. Williams (P-NJ)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Richard Schweiker (P-PA)
Secretary of Education: Carl D. Perkins (D-KY)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: William Proxmire (P-WI)
Secretary of Transportation: Elizabeth Dole (D-NC)
Secretary of Energy: James A. McClure (R-ID)

As soon as his Cabinet was settled, President O’Callaghan sends a delegation comprised of Secretary of State Church, Senators Charles Percy (P-IL), and John Stennis (D-MS), and former Presidents Roosevelt and Jackson to Tehran, to attempt to secure the release of the American prisoners.  For almost a week, the delegation stays in Iran, negotiating with the Ayatollah.  Finally, on February 3, 1981, the prisoners are released, in exchange for an American promise to send the Shah back to Iran to face a trial for war crimes.  However, before he can be sent to Tehran, the Shah dies on February 5, at his hotel room in New York City.

When the hostages return to the States on February 7, they are given a hero’s welcome, with the President, Vice President, every Cabinet member except SecDef Weinberger, 71 Senators, and House Speaker Gerald R. Ford (P-MI), coming out to greet them.  They are given a state dinner at the White House, and a parade in New York City, before finally returning home.

With the hostage crisis firmly behind him, O’Callaghan turns to domestic affairs, giving a speech on national television expressing his support for abortion rights, and his opposition to the biannual Helms Amendment, which is defeated this time by a margin of 39-61; it’s worst margin yet.

In early March, O’Callaghan signs the Family and Medical Leave Act of 1981; the Act, sponsored by Senator Charles Mathias (P-MD), would allow an employee to take unpaid leave due to a serious health condition that makes the employee unable to perform his job or to care for a sick family member or to care for a new son or daughter (including by birth, adoption or foster care).  Despite strong opposition from conservatives like Jesse Helms, Strom Thurmond, and John Tower (D-TX), the Act passes easily in both Houses.

On June 9, 1981, Justice William O. Douglas dies of a stroke; Charles Mathias is appointed to replace him.

In September, Congress begins debating the Handgun Violence Prevention Act; introduced by Senator Pat Leahy (P-VT), the Act requires purchasers to wait for a background check to occur before being allowed to purchase a handgun.  Like the FMLA, the HVPA is strongly opposed by conservatives, although moderates like John Warner (D-VA) and Thad Cochran (D-MS), push for passage, and it is approved by the Senate on October 9 by a vote of 55-45; the House approves on October 27 by a vote of 228-207, and is signed by the President the next day.

In his State of the Union Address on January 27, 1982, President O’Callaghan calls for an increase in the minimum wage; he signs a bill making it a reality on March 3.

On April 8, Congress begins debate on the Immigration Reform and Control Act.  The Act, written by Senator John F. Kennedy (D-MA), would make it illegal to knowingly hire or recruit illegal immigrants, require employers to attest to their employees' immigration status, and grant amnesty to certain illegal immigrants who entered the United States before January 1, 1978 and have lived in the US ever since.

Immediately, the Act is faced with strong opposition; Senator Helms calls it “A sellout to Mexico.”  Senator Strom Thurmond says, “I will never vote for this legislation; if Juan and Juanita want to enter this country, do it legally!”  On May 29, cloture is granted by a vote of 62-38; on June 7, it passes by a vote of 80-20; on June 28 it clears the House, and is signed by the President on July 1.

The 1982 Congressional Elections

With O’Callaghan’s approval ratings in the mid 60’s, it comes as no surprise when the Progressives make big gains in both Houses.

House Results:
Progressives: 280 (+30)
Democrats: 111 (-26)
Republicans: 44 (-4)

Senate Results:
Progressives: 50 (+3)
Democrats: 26 (+5)
Republicans: 24 (-8)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Judging by the popularity of President O'Callaghan and the Progressive Party, one can only assume that President O'Callaghan will be reelected convincingly over his Democratic and Republican opponents in the 1984 Presidential Election. Speaking of the 1984 Presidential Election, who are considered potential candidates for both the Democratic and Republican Nominations in 1984?

On the Democratic side, the only candidates to have really considered a run are former President Reagan and Vice President Carter.  However, a number of candidates have formed exploratory committees: Senator Dale Bumpers (AR), Senator Lawton Chiles (FL), Senator Sam Nunn (GA), Senator Fritz Hollings (SC), Governor Mark White (TX), Governor Jim Hunt (NC), and Congressman Trent Lott (MS).

On the Republican side, no one has declared, although Senator Pat Leahy (VT), and Governor Thomas Kean (NJ) have formed exploratory committees.

Also, what is Gary Hart doing in this timeline? Is he a Senator from Colorado, and if so which political party is Hart affiliated with? One would assume he is a member of the Progressive Party, however he could be a Democrat. If Hart is, he better be a sane one at that Also will he appear in the TL anytime soon?

Gary Hart is a Progressive Senator from Colorado; he is planning on running for President in 1988.

One more question what is Hunter S. Thompson doing in this TL? Did he write Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail 1972 based around George McGovern's candidacy for the Progressive Nomination in 1972? Just curious about one of my favourite authors.

No, Mr. Thompson never wrote the book.  He still works at Rolling Stone magazine, though.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If you get that far, will you write into the future, past our present day?

No; this TL will end with the 2008 elections.

I love Supreme Court Justice Charles Mathias.  He is one of my heroes and a Marylander at that.

Glad to see you liked it

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In his State of the Union Address on January 29, 1983, President O’Callaghan says, “I will make it a goal over the next two years to pass legislation that will provide health care to every Americans citizen, regardless of race, national origin, gender, sexual orientation, or any other factor.  I will work with Congressional leaders to fashion a bill that is acceptable to as many people as possible.”

Over the next several weeks, a group consisting of President O’Callaghan, Speaker Gerald Ford (P-MI), House Democratic leader Tip O’Neill (D-MA), House Republican Leader Jim Jeffords (R-VT), Senate Progressive Leader Mark Hatfield (P-OR), Democratic Leader Robert C. Byrd (D-WV), and Republican Leader Robert Stafford (R-VT), the Health Care Act of 1983 is written.

The Act requires every US citizen and permanent resident alien to obtain health insurance coverage by December 31, 1984.  Each citizen would be allowed to pick any health care program they desired, regardless of cost, and the government would pay for anywhere between 50% and 100% of the program, depending on the citizen’s income. 

Despite O’Callaghan’s work with leaders of all parties, the Act is met with stiff resistance from conservatives such as Helms, Thurmond, Stennis, and Herman Talmadge (D-GA) in the Senate, Richard Shelby (D-AL), Bill Young (D-FL), Newt Gingrich (D-GA), and Ralph Hall (D-TX) in the House.  Speaking shortly after the Act’s introduction, Helms says, “If Americans want free health care, than they should get a job.  This isn’t Moscow, or Havana.”

However,  eventually, the Act is saved in the Senate.  In a deal brokered by a troika consisting of John Warner (D-VA), Gary Hart (P-CO), and Pat Leahy (R-VT), the Southerners would stop their filibuster of the Act, and the President would scrap a previous plan to cut the military budget in order to fund the Act, instead cutting the budget for NASA, foreign aid and education.  O’Callaghan would also promise to not open up relations with China until they improved their human rights record.

On September 12, the Act comes up for cloture in the Senate.  Thanks to the compromise, cloture is reached, 63-37.  On September 14, it passes the Senate 67-33; on October 1, it clears the House 232-202, and the President signs the Act on October 2.

In his State of the Union on January 24, 1984, President O’Callaghan announces that he will seek reelection, and that he is proud of the Congress for passing the health care legislation.

In February 1984, despite having failed to pass his Amendment to outlaw abortion, Jesse Helms finally gets a victory with the passage of his Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 1984.  The Act prohibits the method of abortion called “partial birth abortion.”  According to the Act, a partial birth abortion is “An abortion in which the person performing the abortion, deliberately and intentionally vaginally delivers a living fetus until, in the case of a head-first presentation, the entire fetal head is outside the body of the mother, or, in the case of breech presentation, any part of the fetal trunk past the navel is outside the body of the mother, for the purpose of performing an overt act that the person knows will kill the partially delivered living fetus; and performs the overt act, other than completion of delivery, that kills the partially delivered living fetus.”  Despite strong opposition from Progressives and liberal Democrats such as John F. Kennedy (D-MA), the Act passes the Senate 53-47 on March 18; it passes the House on April 9 by a vote of 227-207, and is signed by President O’Callaghan on April 11.

The 1984 Presidential Election

In a Gallup Poll on February 1, 1984, 62% of Americans approve of O’Callaghan, while 30% disapprove, and 8% have no opinion.

The 1984 Progressive National Convention

O’Callaghan and Gravel are renominated without opposition.

The 1984 Democratic National Convention

The 1984 Democratic Primaries are a thoroughly Southern affair, as all three candidates hail from below the Mason-Dixon line: Former Vice President Carter, Senator Lawton Chiles of Florida, and Governor Jim Hunt of North Carolina.

1984 Democratic Primaries:
February 20th (Iowa)
Hunt: 39%, Chiles: 34%, Carter: 27%.

February 28th (New Hampshire)
Chiles: 40%, Hunt: 33%, Carter: 27%.

March 6th (Vermont)
Chiles: 37%, Hunt: 35%, Carter: 28%.

March 13th (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Massachusetts, Nevada, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Washington:
Alabama: Hunt: 37%, Carter: 36%, Chiles: 27%.
Florida: Chiles: 71%, Hunt: 20%, Carter: 9%.
Georgia: Hunt: 35%, Carter: 34%, Chiles: 31%.
Massachusetts: Chiles: 46%, Hunt: 32%, Carter: 22%.
Nevada: Hunt: 39%, Chiles: 35%, Carter: 26%.
Oklahoma: Hunt: 40%, Chiles: 34%, Carter: 26%.
Rhode Island: Chiles: 39%, Hunt: 36%, Carter: 25%.

After losing in every primary, including his home state's, Carter withdraws and endorses Hunt.

March 20th (Illinois)
Chiles: 53%, Hunt: 47%.

March 27th (Connecticut)
Chiles: 51%, Hunt: 49%.

April 3rd (New York, Wisconsin)
New York: Hunt: 54%, Chiles: 46%.
Wisconsin: Hunt: 50%, Chiles: 50%.

April 10th (Pennsylvania, Tennessee)
Pennsylvania: Hunt: 53%, Chiles: 47%.
Tennessee: Hunt: 61%, Chiles: 39%.

Running low on cash, and having lost 4 primaries in a row, Chiles drops out; Hunt returns the favor by making him the Vice Presidential selection.

The 1984 Republican National Convention

The Republicans nominate Governor Pierre S. du Pont IV of Delaware; he selects Vermont Senator Pat Leahy as his running mate.

The 1984 Presidential Election

As in 1980, O’Callaghan and Gravel campaign hard despite a big lead in the polls, and it pays off with a massive landslide; pundits attribute several Democratic victories to a fully Southern ticket.

Mike O'Callaghan/Mike Gravel: 50% PV, 431 EV
Jim Hunt/Lawton Chiles: 34% PV, 97 EV
Pierre S. du Pont IV/Pat Leahy: 16% PV, 10 EV

The 1984 Congressional Elections

Despite the O’Callaghan landslide, the Progressives suffer minor losses in Congress.

House Results:
Progressives: 269 (-11)
Democrats: 120 (+9)
Republicans: 46 (+2)

Senate Results:
Progressives: 46 (-4)
Democrats: 29 (+3)
Republicans: 25 (+1)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I don't think the Democrats are anything like in RL.  They seem to be becoming conservatives, like our Republicans.

That's kind of the point.  It's a "what-if", things won't go exactly the same.

I'm surprised this time lines Republicans still exist; they haven't won a presidential election since 1908, 76 years previously, and I don't think have won any congressional majority, only part of some early coalitions.  In the 1800's, that was enough time to go from Federalists and Anti-Federalists through Whigs and Democratic-Republicans to Democrats and Republicans.

They have a base in New England, at the Congressional level.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The GOP is mostly libertarian, altough some liberals remain (like Leahy and Jeffords); they are also a mostly regional Party; DuPont is their most southern member, and their only Westerner is Goldwater (who was elected again in 1968 like IRL).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Why did the Progressive Party lose seats in House and in the Senate despite the landslide reelection of President O'Callaghan in 1984? But then again, in the RL 1972 Presidential Election, which resulted in the landslide reelection of Richard Nixon, the Republican Party failed to make gains in both the House and in the Senate.

Exactly; in the HoR, most of the seats lost in '84 were generally Democratic or Republican seats, that had been brought in by the O'Callaghan landslide of 1980; same in the Senate.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The Second Term of Mike O'Callaghan

“At this time, I am pleased to announce that not a single American citizen is without healthcare.”  President O’Callaghan booms during his second Inaugural Address, referring to the success of his health care plan.

Congress soon begins debate on the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1985; FECA would place limits on contributions by individuals and groups to candidates, party committees and PACs; it also prohibited:
1) Donations directly from Corporations, Labor Organizations and National Banks
2) Donations from Government Contractors
3) Donations from Foreign Nationals
4) Cash Contributions over $100
5) Contributions in the Name of Another.

Despite strong opposition from conservatives, and moderated such as John Warner, FECA passes the Senate on May 1 by a vote of 54-46, and the House on May 24 by a vote of 228-183.  It is signed by the President on May 25.

In June, President O’Callaghan presents the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement of 1985 to the Senate for ratification.  The agreement would remove several trade restrictions in stages over a ten year period, with the goal of increasing cross-border trading.

As expected, the FTA faces strong opposition from conservatives such as Helms, Thurmond, Byrd (D-WV), and Progressives such as Chafee (P-RI), Inouye (P-HI), and Sarbanes (P-MD), it is supported by enough moderates and liberals that it passes the Senate by a vote of 59-41 on July 10, and passes easily in the House on July 27, by a vote of 250-167.

On September 30, O’Callaghan makes a major surprise when he names 48 year old Colin Powell as the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, replacing John William Vessey, Jr, over many more qualified men; at 48, he was not only the youngest Chairman, but also the first African American to hold the post.

In his State of the Union Address, O’Callaghan calls for an overhaul of telecommunications law, and sends legislation to Congress for that purpose.  The law, Telecommunications Act of 1986, would eliminate major ownership restrictions for radio and television groups.  With strong backing from all groups, the Act passes the Senate on March 1, 87-12, and passes the House 434-0 on March 17, being signed by the President on March 18.

In April, Congress begins consideration of the Warner-Nichols Act, which would rework the command structure of the United States military, and give more power to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

Under the Act, military advice was centralized in the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs as opposed to the service chiefs. The Chairman was designated as the principal military advisor to the President of the United States, National Security Council and Secretary of Defense.  With the strong backing of Warner, a former Secretary of the Navy, the Act passes the Senate 99-0, and the House 390-17, and is signed by the President on August 1.

 The 1986 Congressional Elections

After 6 years of Progressive rule, the Democrats make gains in both Houses of Congress.

House Results:
Progressives: 253 (-16)
Democrats: 132 (+12)
Republicans: 50 (+4)

Senate Results:
Progressives: 41 (-5)
Democrats: 35 (+6)
Republicans: 24 (-1)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I love this timeline!
I have a question, what is Ron Paul and Ross Perot party affiliations, is Paul D or P and is Perot an Independent still or is he a Republican maybe?

Ron Paul is a Republican Congressman from Texas, and Ross Perot is registered as an Independent.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

President O'Callaghan has been a true Progressive President, which I always like to see

Judging from the Progressive Party's losses in the 1986 Congressional Elections, I have a feeling that they'll lose the White House in 1988, even if they have Vice President Mike Gravel as their nominee. Though I'm still hoping for Colorado Senator Gary Hart to win both the Progressive Nomination in 1988 as well as the White House

Anywho, what has occurred in British politics since the 1959 General Election when Hugh Gaitskell defeated Prime Minister Harold Macmillian to become British Prime Minister?

In the UK, Gaitskell served as PM until his death in 1963, when Macmillian was elected PM; the Profumo scandal never broke, and Harold served as PM until he retired in 1969; he was replaced by conservative Edward Heath, who served until he was defeated in 1972; Heath was replaced by Labour member Harold Wilson, who served as PM from 1972-1979.

In the 1979 elections, Labour was removed from power, and the Conservatives, under Margaret Thatcher took power, and have held power ever since, most recently winning the elections on August 7, 1986.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I love this timeline!
I have a question, what is Ron Paul and Ross Perot party affiliations, is Paul D or P and is Perot an Independent still or is he a Republican maybe?

Ron Paul is a Republican Congressman from Texas, and Ross Perot is registered as an Independent.

How did Ron Paul win as a Republican in Texas? Wouldn't Texas have remained a Democratic state seeing as how the political landscape is in this TL? I could see the Progresssives gaining strength there among the working class and the minorities. Since we are on the Subject who is the Governor and Senators from Texas?

Republicans have always had enclaves of power in the South, and Paul is one of those Districts.  The Governor of Texas is Mark White (D), and the Senators are Lloyd Bentsen (D) and Phil Gramm (R).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What's the situation in South Asia?

Because the domino theory and containment never came into being, the US never involved itself in Korea and Vietnam, leading to both nations becoming untied, Communist countries.  Most of Asia is basically the same, except China is not as far developed, due to not having relations with the US, or most Western nations yet.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I love this timeline!
I have a question, what is Ron Paul and Ross Perot party affiliations, is Paul D or P and is Perot an Independent still or is he a Republican maybe?

Ron Paul is a Republican Congressman from Texas, and Ross Perot is registered as an Independent.

How did Ron Paul win as a Republican in Texas? Wouldn't Texas have remained a Democratic state seeing as how the political landscape is in this TL? I could see the Progresssives gaining strength there among the working class and the minorities. Since we are on the Subject who is the Governor and Senators from Texas?

Republicans have always had enclaves of power in the South, and Paul is one of those Districts.  The Governor of Texas is Mark White (D), and the Senators are Lloyd Bentsen (D) and Phil Gramm (R).

By the way have the Bush's moved to Texas or are they still in Connecticut? Also who is in power in Pennsylvania is there a small GOP enclave there or are Thornburg and Scranton Progressives.

1)  The Bush's stayed in Connecticut, with Prescott serving as a Senator, George HW serving in various Diplomatic posts, and George W not really doing anything at all.

2)  Pennsylvania is run mostly by the Democrats and Progressives, with Republicans having small, long time areas of power.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

South Asia remains, essentially, unchanged from OTL.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

South Asia remains, essentially, unchanged from OTL.

What about the famine in 1972 caused by Nixon withholding food shipments from Bangladesh after its independence from Pakistan?

The famine never happened, due to Jackson's support for Bangladesh.

France?

By 1987, France is basically the same as it is in RL.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

On February 4, 1987, Justice Bailey Aldrich dies suddenly of a heart attack during oral arguments.  As his replacement, President O’Callaghan nominates Sandra Day O'Connor, making her the second woman to become a Justice.

On February 10, Congress begins debate on the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1987.  Introduced by Senator John F. Kennedy (D-MA), the ADA would prohibit under certain circumstances, discrimination based on disability, with disabilities being defined on a case by case basis, and excluding certain conditions as disabilities, such as current substance abusers.

Despite strong support from liberals from all parties, the legislation faces stiff opposition from conservatives such as Helms, Thurmond and Stennis; their main argument is that the legislation is unnecessary, as these protections are already covered by other pieces of legislation.

After several speeches by Senator Kennedy show that this legislation covers new territory, the conservatives move that the legislation is unconstitutional.  This argument, too, is quickly dispensed with, as numerous Senators, including the Chairman of the Judiciary Committee Joe Biden (P-DE), give speeches proving, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the legislation is perfectly constitutional.

Finally, on March 25, after more than a month of debate, the Senate passes the ADA, 57-42; on April 10, after attempts by Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) to convince the House to not pass what he calls “A massive waste of time,” the House passes the ADA 320-91, and it is signed by the President on April 12.

In early May, President O’Callaghan becomes the first US President to ever visit Russia while in office; he meets with President Mikhail Gorbachev, who had been elected in a shocking upset in the 1986 Russian Presidential Election.  On May 8, O’Callaghan gives a speech to the Russian Parliament, calling for closer relations between the two former enemies.  Although the speech is mostly well received, it is mocked by Senator Helms, who calls O’Callaghan “Comrade O’Callaghan” upon his return.

On June 1, President O’Callaghan authorizes Operation Praying Mantis, a one-day naval strike against Iranian naval ships, boats, and command posts in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. guided missile frigate.  Despite opposition from some members of his Cabinet, and his own reservations, O’Callaghan is persuaded to authorize the strikes by Senators Stennis and Warner.

On September 17, while giving a speech to Georgetown University Law School celebrating the 200th anniversary of the signing of the Constitution, tragedy strikes when Attorney General Ted Kennedy is assassinated by a radical anti-Catholic gunman.  The gunman then opens fire on the classroom, killing three more people before he commits suicide.

The Attorney General’s funeral is attended by all 535 members of Congress, every Cabinet member, and numerous foreign dignitaries.  O’Callaghan gives a moving eulogy to Gravel, breaking down in tears at the end.  The speech by his brother, Senator John F. Kennedy, is even more moving, with Kennedy breaking down multiple times, and having to hold onto the arm of his friend Senator John Kerry (P-MA) in order to continue.  Even enemies such as Helms and Thurmond deliver kind speeches, although Helms’ is noticeably reserved.

On October 10, Congress returns to session, and begins debate on the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1988; introduced by Senator John F. Kennedy in remembrance of his brother, the Act would provide for 100,000 new police officers, $9.7 billion in funding for prisons and $6.1 billion in funding for prevention programs which were designed with significant input from experienced police officers.  In addition, the Act provided for a greatly expanded federal death penalty, new classes of individual banned from possessing firearms, and a variety of new crimes defined in statutes relating to immigration law, hate crimes, sex crimes, and gang-related crime.

With strong support throughout Congress, the Act is passed quickly, and signed by the President on October 28.

In his State of the Union Address on January 27, 1988, President O’Callaghan pays tribute to Ted Kennedy, calling him “A true freedom fighter of the highest order.”  He also announces that he will not seek reelection.

On February 9, O’Callaghan signs an executive order prohibiting off-shore drilling on the coast of Florida, claiming environmental problems.

The 1988 Presidential Election

With President O’Callaghan about to leave office, polls show that he has an approval rating of 58%, with 38% disapproving, and 4% having no opinion.

The 1988 Progressive National Convention

As expected, Vice President Gravel is nominated without opposition, and he selects Senator Carl Levin of Michigan as his running mate.

The 1988 Democratic National Convention

The 1988 Democratic primaries prove to be, unlike the 1984 primaries, an affair of North v. West, with Governor William O'Neill of Connecticut running against Senator John Warner of Virginia.

The 1988 Democratic Primaries:
February 8th (Iowa)
Warner: 57%, O'Neill: 43%.

February 16th (New Hampshire)
O'Neill: 52%, Warner: 48%.

February 23rd (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Virginia)
Alabama: Warner: 63%, O'Neill: 37%.
Arkansas: Warner: 59%, O'Neill: 41%.
Florida: Warner: 55%, O'Neill: 45%.
Georgia: Warner: 64%, O'Neill: 36%.
Kentucky: Warner: 58%, O'Neill: 42%.
Louisiana: Warner: 65%, O'Neill: 35%.
Virginia: Warner: 91%, O'Neill: 9%.

March 1st (Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas)
Maryland: Warner: 54%, O'Neill: 46%.
Massachusetts: O'Neill: 52%, Warner: 48%.
Mississippi: Warner: 72%, O'Neill: 28%.
Rhode Island: Warner: 50%, O'Neill: 50%.
Tennessee: Warner: 66%, O'Neill: 34%.
Texas: Warner: 54%, O'Neill: 46%.

After winning just 2 of the first 15 primaries, O'Neill drops out, and Warner selects Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton as his running mate.

The 1988 Republican National Convention

In a stunning upset, Congressman Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination, and selects fellow small government conservative, Senator Larry Pressler of South Dakota as his running mate.

The 1988 Presidential Election

Despite O’Callaghan’s immense popularity, the election is a toss-up for the entire campaign.  However, at the very end, a series of Gravel gaffes, plus strong performances by Warner in the debates, tip the election.

John Warner/Bill Clinton: 37% PV, 294 EV
Mike Gravel/Carl Levin: 36% PV, 206 EV
Ron Paul/Larry Pressler: 27% PV, 38 EV

The 1988 Congressional Elections

Given the narrow Warner victory margin, it is no surprise that the Democrats make minimal gains in the Congressional elections.

House Results:
Progressives: 248 (-5)
Democrats: 138 (+6)
Republicans: 49 (-1)

Senate Results:
Democrats: 40 (+5)
Progressives: 38 (-3)
Republicans: 22 (-2)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Thanks for the list, Rocky.  You're right, the Democrats do seem to have a bit of an edge in this America.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

You're right, the Democrats do seem to have a bit of an edge in this America.

Just a bit bias don't you agree Mr. Constine

Slight

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The First Term of John Warner

“We must continue to make America strong, and to make America great.  Working together, I know we can achieve this vision,” President Warner says, as an approving President O’Callaghan looks on.

Despite calls from Democrats to have a partisan Cabinet, Warner refuses, and brings leaders from all parties in.

Secretary of State: Richard Lugar (D-IN)
Secretary of Treasury: Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)
Secretary of Defense: John Tower (D-TX)
Attorney General: Howell Heflin (D-AL)
Secretary of the Interior: Norman Bangerter (R-UT)
Secretary of Agriculture: Mike Hayden (P-KS)
Secretary of Commerce: John Danforth (P-MO)
Secretary of Labor: Lynn Martin (R-IL)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Louis Sullivan (D-GA)
Secretary of Education: Terrel Bell (R-UT)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Andrew Cuomo (P-NY)
Secretary of Transportation: Andrew Card (R-MA)
Secretary of Energy: Hazel R. O'Leary (D-NJ)
Secretary of Veteran’s Affairs: Daniel Akaka (P-HI)

On January 24, Congress begins debate on the Whistleblower Protection Act of 1989; introduced by Senator John F. Kennedy (D-MA), the Act would protect federal whistleblowers, or persons who work for the government who report agency misconduct. A federal agency would violate the Act if it takes or fails to take (or threatens to take or fail to take) a personnel action with respect to any employee or applicant because of any disclosure of information by the employee or applicant that he or she reasonably believes evidences a violation of a law, rule or regulation; gross mismanagement; gross waste of funds; an abuse of authority; or a substantial and specific danger to public health or safety.

Despite having support from numerous groups, including the President, the Act is filibustered by conservatives, with Judiciary Chairman Strom Thurmond (D-SC), leading the opposition, claiming that the legislation, “Encourages people to tattle on their employers.”  However, on February 12, by a vote of 81-19, the Senate grants cloture, and approve the Act on February 16 by a vote of 85-15; the House passes it on March 6, 340-52, and it is signed by the President on March 8.

In April, Congress begins debate on the Immigration Act of 1989.  The Act would increase the number of legal immigrants allowed into the United States each year. It would also create a lottery program that would randomly assign a number of visas. This was to help immigrants from countries where the United States did not often grant visas.  The Act would also provide for exceptions to the English testing process required for naturalization set forth by the Naturalization Act of 1906.

As expected, the Act faces opposition from conservatives like Helms and Thurmond, both of whom advocate restricting, not increasing, the number of immigrants allowed in each year.  For weeks, Helms and Thurmond conduct a strong filibuster, but it is eventually defeated, and is passed on May 17, 68-32; passing the House a week later, it is signed by the President on May 30.

On August 2, President Warner is faced with a major diplomatic crisis when Iraq invades the neighboring nation of Kuwait.  After two days of intense combat, most of the Kuwaiti Armed Forces were either overrun by the Iraqi Republican Guard or escaped to neighboring Saudi Arabia.

On August 7, President Warner announced that the U.S. would launch a "wholly defensive" mission to prevent Iraq from invading Saudi Arabia, called “Operation Desert Storm.” 

President Warner and Secretary of State Lugar manage to assemble a coalition of forces to join it in opposing Iraq, consisting of forces from 34 countries: Afghanistan, Argentina, Australia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, France, Greece, Italy, Kuwait, Morocco, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Niger, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Portugal, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Spain, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States itself, while Japan and Germany contribute an additional $15 billion to the effort.

The United States and the United Nations gave several public justifications for involvement in the conflict. The most prominent reason was the Iraqi violation of Kuwaiti territorial integrity.  On September 12, Congress authorizes the use of military force to drive Iraq out of Kuwait.  The votes were 58-42 in the Senate and 270-165 in the House.

Starting with an extensive aerial bombing campaign, the coalition seeks quickly to end the war, and drive Iraq out of Kuwait.  US attempts to destroy Iraqi planes works well; their second phase of the air campaign ostensibly targeted military targets throughout Iraq and Kuwait: Scud missile launchers, weapons of mass destruction sites, weapons research facilities and naval forces.  11 of Iraq's 20 major power stations and 119 substations were totally destroyed, while a further six major power stations were damaged.

Shortly afterwards, the coalition forces assembled in full strength and launched an armored attack into Iraq on October 4, just to the west of Kuwait, taking Iraqi forces by surprise.  The Coalition advance was much swifter than U.S. generals had expected. On October 6, Iraqi troops began retreating out of Kuwait, setting fire to Kuwaiti oil fields as they left.

One hundred hours after the ground campaign started, President Warner declares a cease-fire and on October 7 declared that Kuwait had been liberated.
In his State of the Union Address on January 30, President Warner reflects on the success of the war, and says that, “Americans must never be afraid to help other nations when they are in need.”  His approval rating shoots up to 93%; it will not fall below 80% until the end of March.

On June 8, Justice John D. Butzner, Jr. retires from the Court.  President Warner appoints Antonin Scalia to replace him.

The 1990 Congressional Elections

With Warner’s approval ratings still in the high 60’s, the Democrats make major gains in Congress.

House Results:
Progressives: 200 (-48)
Democrats: 190 (+52)
Republicans: 45 (-4)

Senate Results:
Democrats: 50 (+10)
Progressives: 31 (-7)
Republicans: 19 (-3)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Judging from President Warner's popularity coming into the 1990 Congressional Elections, I would assume that President Warner would be reelected convincingly over his Progressive and Republican opponents in the 1992 Presidential Election, not to mention I sense that the Democratic Party will regain control of the House of Representatives and solidify their majority in the Senate.

Perhaps, but remember how high GHW Bush's ratings were in 1990

Anywho, a quick query. Who are the House and Senate leaders for the Democratic, Progressive and Republican parties as of the 1990 Congressional Elections?

House Leaders:
Speaker of the House: Tom Foley (P-WA)
Majority Leader: Jim Leach (P-IA)
Majority Whip: Jerry Kleczka (P-WI)
Minority Leader 1: Newt Gingrich (D-GA)
Minority Whip 1: David E. Bonior (D-MI)
Minority Leader 2: Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
Minority Whip 2: Nancy Johnson (R-CT)

Senate Leaders:
Majority Leader: Wendell H. Ford (D-KY)
Majority Whip: Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)
Minority Leader 1: Joe Biden (P-DE)
Minority Whip 1: Howard Metzenbaum (P-OH)
Minority Leader 2: Patrick Leahy (R-VT)
Minority Whip 2: William Cohen (R-ME)