TR wins in 1912

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The First Term of Al Gore

“My fellow Americans, we are finishing the first decade of the Twenty-First Century.  As we move forward, let us not forget the less fortunate, those who do not have our advantages – both American and foreign.”  President Gore, the first Democrat to be elected President in 12 years, takes office in a time of optimism.  Gore helps forward this optimism by assembling a Cabinet of well known and well respected public officials, including appointing former President Powell to be Secretary of Defense.

Secretary of State: Gary Ackerman (P-NY)
Secretary of Treasury: Robert Rubin (P-NY)
Secretary of Defense: Colin Powell (P-NY)
Attorney General: Robert E. Cooper Jr. (D-TN)
Secretary of the Interior: Tom Harkin (P-IA)
Secretary of Agriculture: Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Secretary of Commerce: Byron Dorgan (D-ND)
Secretary of Labor: John Sweeney (D-NY)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Patty Murray (D-WA)
Secretary of Education: John T. Casteen III (D-VA)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Bill Purcell (D-TN)
Secretary of Transportation: Nick Rahall (D-WV)
Secretary of Energy: Ed Markey (P-MA)
Secretary of Veteran’s Affairs: John McCain (R-AZ)

On February 15, 2009, President Gore sends Congress his landmark act, the Affordable Education Act of 2009.  The legislation, based on action taken by Gore’s Secretary of Education, John T. Casteen III when he was President of the University of Virginia, would be in effect a series of scholarships funded by the government and given to the States.  Each State would then distribute the funds to students who requested them, providing that the students were attending out-of-state universities.

In the House, there is intense debate over the AEA.  Conservatives such as Congressman Walter B. Jones (D-NC) and Ron Paul (R-TX) argue that the bill would have negative financial implications, while encouraging students to attend more expensive schools just to get the scholarships.  However, liberals like Anthony Weiner (P-NY), George Miller (P-CA), and John Dingell (D-MI) argue that the legislation would enable many Americans who otherwise would be unable to afford a good college will now have the opportunity.  On April 19, by a vote of 275-152, the AEA is passed in the House.

In the Senate, a filibuster is led by conservatives Jim DeMint (D-SC) and Judd Gregg (R-NH).  They also make the economic arguments, and Gregg, a leading member of the Budget Committee, notes that it would be almost impossible to finance the new bill.  However, liberals respond by announcing cuts in other spending areas and minor tax increases to cover the cost, rendering Gregg’s objections null and void.  On September 14, by a vote of 61-39, cloture is achieved; the AEA passes the Senate three days later, 56-35.

However, because the AEA had been slightly amended by the Senate to secure enough conservative support to pass cloture, it is sent back to the House, where there is a prolonged debate because a small number of liberals oppose the new changes.  However, the new version passes the House on October 24 by a vote of 234-191, and is signed by President Gore on October 27.

In a speech to the UN on December 5, Gore calls for “a unified, global response to the looming problem of climate change.”  In response, it is decided that a conference will be held early in 2010.

In his State of the Union Address on January 21, 2010, Gore presses Congress to ratify whatever comes out of the environmental conference, scheduled for February 8–February 14, in Brasilia, Brazil, at the behest of President Lula.

On February 8 the Brasilia Conference convenes; the leaders of every major country in the World attends, with the exception of Zhou Qiang of the People’s Republic of China, who pleads illness.  During the Conference, though, Qiang returns to the Conference, albeit in a limited capacity. 

When the Conference ends on February 14, Gore returns to the Senate asking it to ratify the Brasilia Protocol.  The Protocol’s provisions, however, run into opposition among Senate Conservatives.  The sections requiring cars to cut down on emissions is blasted as eventually forcing American car companies to cut jobs because of the more expensive products they’d be forced to make.  Meanwhile, liberals such as Joe Biden (P-DE) argue that the Treaty doesn’t go far enough.  For nearly two months, Gore parades expert after expert in front of the Senate supporting the Treaty, including former Presidents Warner and Wellstone.  Finally, on May 24, 2010, the Senate votes on the Brasilia Protocol.  As the vote begins, Gore appears to have the votes necessary to ratify.  However, as more Democrats reach the Chamber, Gore’s margin disappears.  When the final tally is read, the Treaty failed by a margin of 54-46, falling 13 votes short.  16/49 Democrats, 36/39 Progressives, and 2/12 Republicans vote for the Treaty – in the end, Gore wasn’t even able to pull 1/3 of his own Party towards the Treaty.  As noted in the first edition of Time Magazine after the vote, “If this is the level of unity in the Democratic Party in November, then President Gore is looking at the beating of a lifetime.”

The 2010 Congressional Elections

On Election Day 2010, the President has an approval rating of 46% – which is excellent when compared to the Congress’ approval rating of 17%; and it shows, as Democrats suffer fairly significant losses in both Houses.  The losses are exacerbated when, after the election, a number of liberal Democrats switch Parties, giving the Progressives even greater majorities.

House Results:
Progressives: 262 (+39)
Democrats: 135 (-37)
Republicans: 38 (-2)

Senate Results:
Progressives: 53 (+14)
Democrats: 38 (-11)
Republicans: 9 (-3)

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

How is McCain still a Republican? Aren't the Republicans basically Libertarians and Paleo-Conservatives? I'd think McCain would be a Conservative/Moderate Democrat in this timeline.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

How is McCain still a Republican? Aren't the Republicans basically Libertarians and Paleo-Conservatives? I'd think McCain would be a Conservative/Moderate Democrat in this timeline.

The John McCain of this TL was a career military man until he retired in 2001.  He is personally a Libertarian with an internationalist bent - he is largely apolitical.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I gather that as time progresses, say two years from now, we'll see the 2012 Presidential election.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I gather that as time progresses, say two years from now, we'll see the 2012 Presidential election.

Sooner than that

[Kaine for Senate '18]

On January 24, 2011, a livid President Gore delivers his State of the Union.  In the speech, Gore says, “The State of our Union is poor – it has been taken over by shills of Big Oil, putting the interests of their wallets ahead of the interests of the citizens of the United States of America.”

The next day, Gore sends Congress the Environmental Regulation Act of 2011.  The Act would place stringent requirements on all companies similar to the ones in the Brasilia Protocol.  Appearing on Meet the Press on January 30, Secretary of Energy Markey tells Tim Russert that, “These provisions received the support of 54 Senators last session – there are now more Progressive Senators who we expect to support the legislation, and so we expect it to pass.”

However, these confident predictions turn out to be more than false.  Conservative Democrats rally against what they perceive as the President trying to pass a Treaty without the required 2/3 support.  Senator Jeff Sessions (D-AL) blasts the President for, “Manipulating the American people and some members of this body into believing this is anything other than the failed Brasilia Treaty in a different outfit.”  Senator Miller (D-GA) criticizes what he sees as, “An attempt by President Gore to resurrect a failed policy.”  For nearly three months, conservatives filibuster the Bill, and Progressive Majority Leader Herb Kohl decides not to call for cloture, fearing that he would be unable to get the necessary 67 votes for cloture.

In a televised address on May 5, 2011, President Gore repeats his theme from his State of the Union, attacking conservatives for putting “money ahead of country.”  Privately, he continues meeting with wavering Senators, practically begging them to join him.  Finally, on September 7, he informs the Majority Leader that he believes he has the votes, and tells Kohl to hold the vote.  Kohl holds off, preferring instead to focus on confirming Russ Feingold to the Supreme Court after the death of E. Grady Jolly in August – Feingold is confirmed on September 30, by a vote of 66-34, with 53/53 Progressives, 11/38 Democrats, 2/9 Republicans voting to confirm the nominee of the Democratic President.

Following the Feingold confirmation, Kohl continues to try and gather up votes for cloture, making sure he has 67 before trying for a vote.  On December 8 he decides to move ahead, and calls for cloture.  The vote is humiliating, failing 58-42 – 51/53 Progressives, 6/38 Democrats, and 1/9 Republicans join together for cloture for the President’s most important legislation.  Utterly humiliated, Gore turns to what he considers an even greater obstacle – his bid for reelection in 2012.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Has America had any Conservative leadership at all since 1912?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Has America had any Conservative leadership at all since 1912?

Not really.  You've had Swanson, Reagan, and Warner - it's been mostly moderates.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The Race for the Democratic Nomination 2012

As President Gore suffers loss after loss, it becomes clear his political future is in trouble.  A poll taken on July 1, 2011 finds him at an Approval of 38%.  Then, on July 18, a bombshell drops.  Vice President Hoeven, who had been kept out of the loop on most decisions in the Administration, announces that he will be challenging President Gore in 2012.  The public reaction by Gore is muted, although a staffer tells the New York Times that "when the President was informed of the decision (by the Washington Post no less) he reacted with more rage than I have ever seen in a sane man."

For months, Hoeven hammers the President for being "essentially a Progressive, not a Democrat."  Gore says little, preferring to have surrogates like Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) do the work.

By the time the Iowa and Mississippi primaries roll around on January 3, 2012, no one knows what the result will be.  In the end, it is a split decision.

Iowa:
Hoeven: 54.2% (41 delegates)
Gore: 45.8%

Mississippi:
Gore: 56.8% (38 delegates)
Hoeven: 43.2%

The media focuses almost entirely on Gore's loss in Iowa, forgetting that Hoeven had also won Iowa in 2008.  Gore does not comment, focusing on the January 17 triple primaries in Connecticut, Florida, and Oregon.  In the end, it is a resounding win for Gore, who carries the three moderate states.

Connecticut:
Gore: 59.5% (30 delegates)
Hoeven: 40.5%

Florida:
Gore: 52.6% (57 delegates)
Hoeven: 47.4%

Oregon:
Gore: 53.2% (30 delegates)
Hoeven: 46.8%

As Gore was able to capture moderate states, the conservative electorates of Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, and Oklahoma on February 7 all go to Hoeven.

Arizona:
Hoeven: 52.3% (53 delegates)
Gore: 47.7%

Idaho:
Hoeven: 62.3% (32 delegates)
Gore: 37.7%

Kansas:
Hoeven: 59.2% (39 delegates)
Gore: 40.8%

Oklahoma:
Hoeven: 54.2% (42 delegates)
Gore: 45.8%

As the primaries drag on, Democrats begin to call for Gore to abandon the campaign.  The Dallas Morning News writes on February 12 that Gore, "Clearly lacks the support of the electorate, and it would be in the best interests of the Party for him to drop out."  Gore refuses, and shows his remaining life by winning the primaries in New Jersey and Georgia on February 14.

Georgia:
Gore: 53.1% (72 delegates)
Hoeven: 46.9%

New Jersey:
Gore: 57.7% (52 delegates)
Hoeven: 42.3%

In the media, February 21 becomes the "Do or Die Day", with primaries in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina, and Texas.  When the results come in, it becomes clear that Gore has lost the support of his party, in the clearest way possible.

California:
Hoeven: 52.3%, (173 delegates)
Gore: 47.7%

Illinois:
Hoeven: 56.5%, (70 delegates)
Gore: 43.5%

Massachusetts:
Gore: 52.7%, (43 delegates)
Hoeven: 47.3%

New York:
Hoeven: 53.8%, (101 delegates)
Gore: 46.2%

North Carolina:
Hoeven: 57.5%, (69 delegates)
Gore: 42.5%

Texas:
Hoeven: 72.8%, (140 delegates)
Gore: 27.2%

With the Popular Vote now 54.7-45.3 for Hoeven, and the Delegate Count 760-322, it clear that Gore should drop out.  However, he refuses, continuing the campaign to the bitter end, even after Hoeven clinches the nomination.

Hoeven: 54.2%, 1,501 delegates
Gore: 45.8%, 869 delegates

At the Convention, Gore insists on a roll call vote.  When the final tally declares Hoeven the nominee, Gore leaves the Convention, issuing no statement.  Hoeven’s acceptance speech announces Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, a Gore supporter, as Hoeven’s Vice President.

The Race for the Progressive Nomination 2012

Amidst the chaos of the Democratic Nomination, numerous Progressives declare.  Senator Joe Biden of Delaware is the first; he is quickly followed by Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts, Senator Kay Hagan of North Carolina (the lone Progressive Southern Senator), Governor Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin (the first openly gay person to run for President), and Congressman Kucinich of Ohio.

The first primary, held in Iowa, is a split affair, with Senator Brown winning with 29%.  Brown wins Maine with 33%, and Hagan takes Kentucky and Oregon – Kucinich drops out after Oregon.  Baldwin gains momentum after winning 52% in Maryland and also winning New Jersey – Biden drops out after New Jersey.  Brown drops out after losing both New York (to Baldwin) and Florida (to Hagan).  The primaries in California, Michigan, and Texas at the end of March become the do or die day for the Progressives – when Baldwin wins both California and Michigan, and wins George the next weekend, Hagan drops out and endorses her.

At the Convention, Baldwin selects Senator Brown as her running mate.

The Race for the Republican Nomination 2012

Sensing an opportunity, several Republicans declare, with two major candidates – Governor Jon Huntsman of Utah and Senator Susan Collins of Maine declaring.  The primaries tilt back and forth, until, following victories in both New York and Texas, Huntsman closes out the contest in February, picking Collins as his Vice President, setting the stage for the November elections.

The 2012 Presidential Election

Entering the campaign, Hoeven is at a distinct disadvantage.  The bitter campaign against the incumbent President has wrecked his image, and only 31% of voters have a favorable opinion of him on Labor Day 2012.  Hoeven spends much of the campaign trying to regain his credibility; it doesn’t help him that Gore not only refuses to endorse him, but actually lets slip privately that he will be voting for Baldwin – which is promptly leaked to the Press just weeks before the Election.

The Hoeven campaign is also hurt by homophobic remarks made by a campaign staffer shortly before the election that is accidently caught on a microphone.

On Election Day, Tammy Baldwin becomes the first openly homosexual ever elected President, in a landslide.  Although her orientation proved not to be a negative nationally, it likely contributed to her losing in states like Arizona and North Carolina.  It also, according to pundits, allowed Huntsman to do better than he otherwise would have.  Hoeven, ultimately, was “doomed from the start.  No man could have won after that primary – even a combination of Jesus, Superman, Spider-Man, and Elvis Presley would have lost that election” (The New York Times, November 8, 2012).

Tammy Baldwin/Scott Brown: 39.6% PV, 345 EV
John Hoeven/Mark Warner: 31% PV, 122 EV
Jon Huntsman/Susan Collins: 29.4% PV, 71 EV

The 2012 Congressional Elections

The Baldwin landslide, and the Democratic disarray, gives Progressives major gains in both Houses.

House Results:
Progressives: 277 (+15))
Democrats: 114 (-21)
Republicans: 44 (+6)

Senate Results:
Progressives: 58 (+5)
Democrats: 30 (-8)
Republicans: 12 (+3)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Awesome, Ben!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Good work, though I have my criticisms:
1) Wouldn't Hoeven resign from being Vice-President in order to run against his own boss?
2) It seems unrealistic that America would elected its first openly gay President in 2012.
3) How do Susan Collins and John Huntsman fit into this world's Republican Party? I had thought it was primarily Libertarian or Paleo-Conservative, and Collins is viewed more as a "RINO" than a Libertarian, while I don't know that much aboutu Huntsman.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Also, what party are the Kennedys in? Are they still Democratic (and thus probably more Conservative or moderate)?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Good work, though I have my criticisms:
1) Wouldn't Hoeven resign from being Vice-President in order to run against his own boss?
2) It seems unrealistic that America would elected its first openly gay President in 2012.
3) How do Susan Collins and John Huntsman fit into this world's Republican Party? I had thought it was primarily Libertarian or Paleo-Conservative, and Collins is viewed more as a "RINO" than a Libertarian, while I don't know that much aboutu Huntsman.

1.  Hoeven did resign early in 2012.
2.  Sure.
3.  The GOP of 2012 is not one with much of a national ideology.  In New England it is more liberal, in the Midwest and West more conservative - this TL's Huntsman and Collins are both moderate Conservatives, like Dick Lugar.

Also, what party are the Kennedys in? Are they still Democratic (and thus probably more Conservative or moderate)?

They are dead, but the 3 Brothers were moderates, with Teddy being on the left end.

[Niemeyerite]

I've just read the TL. Fascinating

[bloombergforpresident]

Wonderful  TL. What are the Kennedy's doing about now.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Wonderful  TL. What are the Kennedy's doing about now.

JFK, RFK, and Ted are dead - no other Kennedy is active in politics.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

What does a GTO Ambassador do, anyway? What is GTO?

[bloombergforpresident]

Wonderful  TL. What are the Kennedy's doing about now.

JFK, RFK, and Ted are dead - no other Kennedy is active in politics.

Awww. Too bad. By the way, who are the Senators from Missouri and Illinois?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I was re-reading parts of this and I noticed that you tend to make Western Republicans, regardless of OTL ideology, become Progressives, even having Bob Dole referred to, of all things, a "Conservative Progressive". Why wouldn't people like him just go to the Democrats in the first place? He'd fit in well there among the party of John Warner etc.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Of all people, Donald Rumsfeld is a Progressive!