Summer TL: President Henry Wallace

[hcallega]

1976 Presidential Election

The battle between Rockefeller and Reagan in 1976 was set up early on to be an intense and dramatic election. Rockefeller's folksy appeal that had helped him so much in 1972 was no longer so dramatic against the former California Governor. Early on it was clear that that the former Hollywood actor wouldn't pull any punches, as he opened up a firestorm on Rockefeller, criticzing him on everything from the economy ("President Rockefeller's policies have set this nation on the path to bankruptcy and economic collapse") to his upbringing ("Don't let the cowboy hat and leather jacket fool you, Withrop Rockefeller has never worked a day, let alone a day on the farm, in his life.") Reagan's fiery populist rhetoric helped him in his appeals to liberal groups such as blacks and hispanics who had voted for Rockefeller in 1972.

Governor Reagan campaiging in South Carolina with South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond

The President fired back with is own attacks, calling out Reagan for his policies as governor, stating that "If Mr. Reagan was to become President he would do the same things he did as governor: cut taxes, raise spending, and turn the state over to labor and his Holywood friends." However the President was on the defensive most of the race, being forced to defend his lackluster economic performance. In a townhall meeting held in Des Moines, Iowa, Rockefeller was asked this question: "Now Mr. President, I'm a small farmer with a wife and a couple of kids running around the house. Now I voted for you last time because I was afraid that I might loose the farm with the way the economy was going and all. But the way I see it things haven't gotten any better, I mean in fact they may have gotten worse. Please Mr. President, tell me why I should vote for you." Rockefeller response: "Well, you know there are a lot of reasons why the economy is in the shape that it is, and it really isn't just the actions of one man or one government, but let my try to put it as simply as I can. The economy is bad, but it could be worse. We could all be out of a job, and we could all be on welfare, but the fact is that it will get better. Things have bottomed out, and they really can't get much worse. Now I think you should vote for me because under my policies we will see the economy recover. Governor Reagan wants to go back to the policies that got us there. I don't, and that should be enough." This answer would serve as a microcosm for the failures of Rockefeller's campaign. He was unable to articulate why the economy had not recovered, or why Americans should sign on for four more years of his policies. Reagan on the other hand portrayed himself as a return to prosperity and success for America and it's people, and thus opened up a strong 12 point lead going into October.

The President with the Vice-President's Son

However the prescense of fomrer Senator Eugene McCarthy's campaign soon became a major concern to Reagan. Focusing his campaign in strongly liberal areas like New York, Philadelphia, and New England, McCarthy was attempting to gain enough support from liberals to cause Reagan to loose the election, and thus allow himself (or another liberal) to win the nomination in 1980. McCarthy himself was no radical. A fast riser in the Democratic party in the 1960s, McCarthy's fast track to national office was derailed by his personal rivalry with President John Kennedy. Much of this was do to McCarthy's staunch oppostion to Kennedy's nomination in 1964, even going as far as to endorse Nelson Rockefeller. Once Kennedy was elected, McCarthy became a thorn in his side, especially on foreign policy issues. He was also critical of his economic policies which he believed were "sinking the nation in a time when whe should rising." Once Kennedy passed away, McCarthy joined with Republicans in opposing Smathers and in support of Rockefeller. However much of his opposition was rooted in Smathers' moderate policies. After retiring from the Senate, McCarthy stayed active in the liberal grassroots, calling for single-payer health care and full civil rights for women, gays, and latinos. In 1976 he would run as an indpendent under the "National Democratic Party" banner. He would choose New York congresswoman Shirley Chisholm as his Vice-Presidential nominee in a direct attempt to rally support from blacks and women. Focusing his campaign on liberal enclaves, McCarthy would draw large crowds and polls in mid-October showed him garnering upwards of 10% of the vote. National ads portrayed him as the warm father figured focused on improving the plight of the poor and weak, while essentially ignoring the two frontrunners.

To cut down McCarthy's support however, Reagan would focus on returning to his past. Calling him out for his support of Republican nominees, Reagan criticzed McCarthy as a "tool of the Republican leadership to defeat the Democratic Party. He is a selfish man, who would rather see his party loose than accept defeat." But perhaps the biggest detrement to McCarthy was when he was not invited to either of the two nationally televised debates on the week of the election. Hovering at around 9%, McCarthy new that he would have make the most of any chance to provide a contrast between himself and the President. However without the national TV audience, McCarthy was unable to portray himself as the only real liberal in the race, and was forced to watch as Reagan and Rockefeller dueled.

[imghttp://mentalfloss.cachefly.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/ronald-reagan-GE.jpg]http://[/img]

In the debates themselves, Reagan opened up with an aggressive attack against Rockefeller as "an out of touch elitist who is in the wrong place and at the wrong time." The attacks continued as Rockefeller was unable to come up with an effective deffense. However in the second debates the focus shifted to foreign policy. Here Rockefeller was able to take advantage as his role of a leader and portray Reagan as "an agressive interventionist who will lead us down the path to war." Overall the debates were even, as each candidate took one of them. However that was not good enough for the President who trailed in the polls entering Election Night:

Reagan/Kennedy (D)-442 EVs, 52% of the PV
Rockefeller/Goldwater (R)-96 EVs, 42% of the PV
McCarthy/Chisholm (ND)-0 EVs, 5% of the PV

While many expected Reagan to win, few predicted that his victory would be so decisive. Much of the victory is credidted to higher than expected turnout among white working class voters, as well as practically every swing state breaking towards Reagan. Also, McCarthy's less than stellar 5% of the vote did little to hurt Reagan, and in the mid-west and northeast may have actually hurt Rockefeller among white liberals who had voted for Rockefeller in 1972. Reagan's victory was the biggest defeat of a true incumbent in US history.

1976 Congressional Elections

1976 was an election of new beginings in the US Senate, as there was an unusually high number of freshmen elected to the Senate. Along with Reagan's landslide however, the Democrats would gain the most, having a net gain of 1 to expand their lead to 59-41 and giving the President some more leway.
Democratic Gains
-Arizona: Dennis DeConcini
-Hawaii: Spark Matsunaga
-Maryland: Paul Sarbanes
-Nebraska: Edward Zorinsky
-New York: Daniel Patrick Moynihan
-Tenessee: Jim Sasser
-Vermont: Thomas Salmon
Republican Gains
-Indiana: Roger Zion
-New Mexico: Harrison Schmidt
-Missouri: John Danforth
-Rhode Island: John Chafee
-Utah: Orrin Hatch
-Wyoming: Malcolm Wallop

In the House the Democrats would gain several seats for new Speaker Tip O'Neill, a strong liberal but nonetheless supporter and soon-to-be personal friend of Reagan.

[hcallega]

This would probably be the only time when I would vote Republican.

I figured as much.

Wow...Was not expecting for Winthrop to loose or even loose in such a big way to former Governor Reagan.

It's the economy STUPID! (no offense, just worth saying)

[hcallega]

OMG I just thought about it...Goldwater vs. Reagan in 1980!!!

Suicide...

Remember, Reagan is by no means a true-blue conservative. He is much more of a "populist".

[hcallega]

The First Term of President Ronald Reagan

Entering the Oval Office in 1977, things did not look good for the United States of America. Inflation, a sputtering economy, and a still high deficit made it look like goods time were not just around the corner. In spite of this, President Reagan and his advisers created the three-point plan to America's economic revival: 1-Stimulate economic growth through tax cuts and increased spending on domestic projects, 2-Implement wage and price controls to slow inflation and 3-ALWAYS speak to the American people with optimism; never with malaise or in a depressing manner.

Another serious domestic issue became the energy crisis. In response to the crisis, Reagan pushed for the deregulation of oil and natural gass, as well as tax cuts for coal companies. Reagan also increased investment in alternative energies, though that was less of a priority than stimulating national industry already in place. This drew critiscm from liberals, but received strong support from moderates and conservatives.

A major focus of President Reagan's first term was foreign policy. Meeting with middle eastern leaders, Reagan paved a record as being very supportive of Israel. Increasing funds for supplying Israel with weapons, Reagan believed that not only was Israel a democratic nation in a authoritarian area, but also "a beacon of light against the forces of Communism and Communist influence in the Middle East." Reagan also paved a staunchly conservative record against the USSR, refusing to open negotiations and instead increasing military funding along the Iron Curtain.

Reagan's National Security Adviser: Jeane Kirkpatrick

On domestic policy Reagan was forced quite often to work from the middle on many contentious issues. The most obvious was universal health care. Senator Ted Kennedy took the lead on the attempt to get a universal plan passed in congress. Reagan was reluctant to push for the issue, hopeing to focus on the economy and inflation instead. Reagan also feared that he did not have the votes in congress and did not want to suffer an embarrasing defeat. However he did say to Kennedy that he would sign the bill if it passed congress. However it was shot down in comitee, as many saw it as a distraction from the pressing issue of the economy. Three Mile Island was another example of Reagan having to rise to the challenge of the times, resoundingly supporting Nuclear Energy as a way to help the energy crisis.

In 1979, after two years where the focus was squarely on the economy (and it's slow recovery) and inflation (again, also slowly lowering), the focus shifted squarely to foreign policy. In Janaury the Shah left Iran due to heavy pressure, leading to the creation of the extremist-islamic government. The Ayatollah Khomeni, a strong opponent of political liberalism and America, took over the government. At the same time in Nicaragua the Sandinistas would overthrow the government. Reagan would denounce both movements as "extremist groups who see little problem with murder and torture as means to victory." In regard to Iraq, things would only get worse when the Revolutionary Guard stormed the American Embassy, taking hostages after the Shah was given asylum in America. Reagan would call an emergency meeting of his national security council, lead by his National Security Adviser Jeanne Kirkpatrick. Kirkpatrick would urge Reagan to use force agains the Iranians, something that many in his "brain trust" would oppose. However Reagan trusted Kirkpatrick and his gut instincts, and ordered the 101st Airborne to land in Iran and rescue the hostages. He trusted that the Screaming Eagles would not fail him.

The 101st would land in helicopters on rooftops throughot Tehran near the embassy. Despite taking heavy anti-aircraft fire, all of the helicopters would land safely and deposit the paras. Securring a perimeter around the embassy, the 101st would storm the building rapidly, killing or wounding all of the guard and rescuing all but one of the hostages who was caught in the crossfire. The 101st would then return to their helicopters. However one of the choppers was shot down and crashed into the center of the city. After returning to the USS Enterprise in the Persian Gulf, the choppers would return to the scene, only to see Iranian troops surronding the crash site, making it impossible to land. Considered a sucess by many, some called out Reagan for being overly brash and agressive. However Kirkpatrick would gain much support as the new leader of the "Scoop Jackson Democrats" for her advice.

However the biggest moment of Reagan's presidency came in March of 1980. With liberal Democratic Senator Walter Mondale already challenging President Reagan due to his moderate run as President, it looked as though the President would have a tough, if beatable, challenge. The economy was recovering and inflation was going down, but many believed that the President was not being agressive enough in tackling the issue head on. Reagan had won the New Hampshire Primary, but not by as much as expected. However one event would change everything. In March of 1980, Soviet forces poured through the Fulda Gap into West Germany. Beliving that now was the time to strike, Soviet commanders had commitedd much to the attack. The Soviet 8th Guard's Army lead the way, engaging the much smaller 11th Amored Cavalry Regiment. In what is known as the "Day of the Black Horse" the 11th ACR would fight an incredibly sucessfull delaying action against the 8th Gaurds, allowing the US V Corps to arrive in the Gap. Several members of the ACR were awarded medals for their valiant defense. The epic tank fight of the V Corps vs. the 8th Guards would be "epic", as T-72s took on the M60 Pattons. The end result was a standstill, but with Soviet Reinforcements on the way the situation was dire. President Reagan knew he had to do something, and he did. Ordering the entire US force to pull back out of the Gap (as well as any civilians), Reagan ordered two B-52s to drop two atomic bombs (never before used in battle) on the Soviet forces. The key here was that with the Soviets contained in the Gap by the US forces, the blast would be isolated enough that it would only destory the Soviet columns. The explosions were titantic, and decimated the Soviet advance. Premire Breznez called on a halt to fighting and opened up negotiations with Reagan. The President would halt his campaign to negotiate. The end results were solid: the Soviet-American conflict would come to an end, while Soviet forces would withdraw back to Russia itself. From there the Eastern Bloc countries would be allowed to decide their own fate. Someone hold elections, in others the local Communist parties were strong enough to keep dictatorial rule. Either way, the Cold War was over, and the US (and Reagan) had won.

[hcallega]

Historico, you need to remember one thing: Wallace never used the A-Bomb against Japan, and therefore nuclear secrets were very tightly guarded. No country outside of the US has Nuclear technology, and therefore Brezhenv had no idea how to respond outside of surrender. This is the first time that Nuclear weapons had ever been used, essentially ending the cold war.

[hcallega]

Alright, I'm sorry for making it so implausible. I don't want to go back and edit the post itself, so consider this an edit:

The Soviets do have nuclear weapons, although the cold war is not necessarily as nuclear as before. Neither side views nuclear weapons as the key to the conflict, or the theory of mutually assured destruction. With US and Soviet forces tangling in the Fulda Gap, Reagan calls on Breznehv to negotiate. A cease-fire is called and both sides go to the negotiating table. The Geneva Peace Accords (as they are known) bring an end to the Cold War, as both sides make it clear that they have nuclear weapons and will use them if the other side does as well. Breznevh promises to pull Soviet troops out of the Gap, while both sides agree to progressively drop troop numbers in Germany.


So there you have it, no nuclear warfare but Reagan still looks like the hero for lessening hostilities. It also undercuts Mondale's criticism for Reagan's hawkish policies and bluntness.

In other news, I'm going on vacation on Sunday and won't be back for a week. I may post sporadically but I don't think I will everyday (only when I'm board or at night). So until then be content with America up to 1980.

[hcallega]

Antonio, I know you are not from America and as such may not be aware, but for most of his life (prior to the 1960s)  Reagan was a LIBERAL DEMOCRAT, and due to the nature of this TimeLine remains a Democrat and is much more liberal than in real life.

[hcallega]

1978 Senate Election

Despite the state of the economy and Reagan's lack of popularity, the Democrats would actually make gains in the Senate, bumping up their majority to 60-40, and giving Reagan a filibuster-proof majority.
Republican Gains
-Colorado: William Armstrong
-Maine: William Cohen
-Minnesota: David Durrenberger
-South Dakota: Larry Pressler
Democratic Gains
-Massachusetts: Paul Tsongas
-Michigan: Carl Levin
-Nebraska: Jim Exon
-New Jersey: Bill Bradley
-Oklahoma: David Boren

In the House however, the Republicans would make slight gains to narrow the Democratic Majority.

[hcallega]

1980 Republican Nomination

The lack of economic prosperity under Reagan, as well as the general sense that the 1980 would be a Republican rebound year made many high profile GOP leaders jump headfirst into the race. The most high-profile candidate to be courted by Republican leaders was former Vice-President and Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater. Goldwater, a popular grassroots conservative leader, was viewed by many in the conservative wing as the only potential candidate who could out-campaign Reagan and counter his dynamic charisma and rhetoric. However Goldwater quickly shot down any speculation of a Presidential run, stating that “my time as a politician is done. The reality is that those in Washington care little for actual principled governing and would rather posture and preach. I do not, nor will I ever again want to be a part of that mess.” Goldwater would also endorse conservative Illinois Representative Phil Crane in the speech. Crane, running as the “Early Bird” (he was the first candidate to declare his candidacy), attempted to rally conservative support in the same way that Rhodes had in 1968. However his lack of national name-recognition and lack of charisma doomed his campaign from the start.

The Cover of Goldwater's Best Selling Book released in 1978

Several other high-profile candidates did launch campaigns however. The most prominent was Kansas Senator Bob Dole. Dole had paved a record as a conservative critic of both Rockefeller administrations. However he was not nearly as extreme as Goldwater or Crane, and had much support from “Middle America”. Dole’s campaign theme was focused on experience and his infamous “Three-Point Plan” to revive the economy. Point one called for a reduction of corporate and income tax, point two a reduction of spending on welfare and foreign aid, and point three a gradual reduction of wage and price controls. Dole also talked a great deal about his military record, making it clear that he would bring an experienced touch to foreign policy. However Dole was not without his critics. Bill Buckley criticized him in an op-ed in the New York Times. Buckley would call Dole “A true wolf in sheep’s clothing. His supposedly conservative views have little in common with those like myself and Mr. Goldwater’s. In fact Senator Dole is far closer to President Reagan than any true opponent of big government.”

Dole's blunt campaign bumper sticker

Dole’s largest challenge actually came from the left rather than the right. Washington insider and President Rockefeller’s chief of staff George Bush was one of the first candidates to declare his candidacy. Bush repeatedly emphasized his political experience “In a time where being an outsider means learning on the job. And we cannot afford that again.” Bush also tried to tie himself to the Presidencies of the Rockefeller’s and Dewey by emphasizing that he would not “be ideologically bound in the White House. I will act independently and in the best nature of the country.” Ideologically, Bush proposed lowering spending and focusing on a balanced budget instead of generating growth via tax cuts and increased spending. Bush’s focus was inflation instead of economic recovery, believing that one would follow the other, but “we cannot afford to increase the deficit and inflation through policies that may improve the economy, but then again they might not. We know for a fact how to reduce inflation. No one’s sure about how to fix the economy.”

The consummate insider on the campaign trail

The third candidate in the race was Senate Minority leader Howard Baker. Baker, a rare southern Republican, was another moderate. However Baker staked himself out as a unique candidate by focusing his theme under a “Southern Strategy”. Baker believed that the future of the Republican Party was in the south, not in the mid-west and northeast. Baker made it clear that he did not believe that it would be a short term strategy, but rather a long-term attempt to rally social conservatives and supporters of big business in a winning coalition. Other candidates included Senator Lowell Weicker of Connecticut and Representative John B. Anderson, who both ran to the left.

Senator Baker addresses the media after announcing his decision to run for the Presidency

The opening contest of the race came in Iowa, where Dole would win a solid victory in the caucuses. Many were beginning to label Dole as the frontrunner due to his support from Republican leadership, but Bush would fire back with consecutive victories in New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Vermont. Baker would then score wins in South Carolina and Alabama, but would be upset by Dole in Florida, before another win in Georgia. The race would soon become a back and forth affair. Dole would capture Illinois, before Bush scored a solid win in his home state of Connecticut. Kansas and Wisconsin were chalked up in the Dole column, before Baker would win in Louisiana. Pennsylvania would be a key state, as Dole and Bush squared off in the key state. In the end Dole would win due to strong support from rural areas. Texas would also narrowly go to Dole, giving him a nice lead in the delegate race. D.C. would go to Bush, while Indiana would go to Dole. North Carolina and Tennessee would go to the southerner Baker. Dole would then start to separate himself from the race with wins in Nebraska, Michigan, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, California, Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Bush would pick up several states, winning Maryland, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, while Baker would win Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi.

At the Republican Convention, the focus was clearly on Dole as a war hero and Republican leader, with many in the party giving strong praise to the nominee. Dole would choose Illinois Governor “Big Jim” Thompson as Vice-President. Things looked good entering the General Election for the Grand Old Party.

Newsweek's Article on the GOP's VP Nominee

[hcallega]

1980 Presidet

The Presidential Election of 1980 could not have started on a strange enough foot. Of course there was the awkward truce in Europe, but there had also been a hostage crisis, a stalling economy, and still very high inflation. Many political observers felt that things had not changed a great deal from four years earlier at home, but in the international scene things were as different as they could possibly be. The threat of Communism vs. Capitalism seemed to be subsiding, and the possibility of a true energy crisis seemed to be unlikely. However President Reagan had been unable to single handedly give the economy CPR, and the real question was whether or not Senator Dole would be able to knock him out over that issue.

The campaign season kicked off in a fairly standard fashion. Reagan and Dole were fairly close in the polls, though the two campaigns couldn’t have been farther apart in style and theme. Reagan was the ultimate optimist, speaking of how the world “is a far safer place than it was four years ago, when the threat of total war and economic collapse seemed imminent.” Reagan’s most infamous device was his commonly recurring stump speech, dubbed by commentators and his press team “The Morning in America Speech”. The speech itself was fairly standard, but the way Reagan delivered it made it memorable:

“My friends, today is a new morning in America. We are seeing the fruits of our labor paying off all across this great land, as we no longer are restrained by the threats of war abroad, or collapse at home. We are reminded of the days following World War Two, when the people of this great nation went to work, had families, and bought beautiful houses in suburbia. They did not complain or make a fuss over their actions. No, they simply did what they believed was their duty as Americans and made this country what it is today. Today, my fellow Americans, we must do the same. We cannot be content with the victories of the past; we must work to make even greater ones for the future. Together, with your help, we can do this. It is the next great challenge for this great nation.”

The President would then add on various endings that dealt with specific issues, what was going on in the news at the time, or talk about local issues and needs. Reagan’s optimism was a major boost in areas of the nation where for many years pessimism had been ingrained in them: areas like Appalachia and the Rust-Belt, the Gulf-Coast and the Great Plains. Many would look back and say that this was the way to run if you were an unpopular incumbent.

Dole on the other hand focused his campaign on sharp and aggressive attacks against the President. He would repeatedly state that “the failures of this administration have held America back, and have put our nation into a debt that will not likely be undone for generations.” Dole was also very critical of Reagan’s foreign policy, stating that “rather than make the world safer, the President has actually made the world a much more dangerous place by aggressively pursuing war with Russia, and then claiming to have saved us from destruction by negotiating a peace that changes little. If not for the bravery and determination of our soldiers, the world would be engulfed in the fire of total destruction. We have also seen him risk the lives of American soldiers and hostages in Iran, rather than negotiate and make clear that the Iranians would pay the price for hurting any of our great people. I believe that these decisions were not made because they were right, but because they made our President look like the brave hero among men.”

The real highlight of the election came during the Presidential debates. Here Reagan and Dole’s two conflicting styles would come head-to-head in a battle to decide who would be the next President of the United States. Dole would come out swinging, attacking the President’s “Bull-Dog Foreign Policy” and “Cowboy Diplomacy.” Reagan would stay positive, repeatedly pointing out that “my actions in the international stage have resulted in victory and peace, not the death and destruction Senator Dole seems to think.”  On domestic policy Dole would call out Reagan for “claiming to have roses when he really has just weeds.” Again Reagan would avoid the low blows by stating “the economy is turning around, we can all see that. If we abandon the policies that work we will simply see more and more and more inflation, debt, and unemployment.”

But the highlight of the debates came in a showdown between Reagan and Dole in the second debate which focused on foreign policy (the first was on domestic issues, the second on foreign policy, and the third a town-hall style debate). The following is the transcript:
Moderator: Now we turn to a controversial decision by the President. When American hostages were taken in Iran, President Reagan deployed the 101st Airborne Division to Tehran to rescue them and return them to America. Some have called this brash and dangerous, while others have defended it. Senator Dole you have been a critic of the President’s decision which you have called “dangerous and ill-conceived”. What would you have done differently?

Senator Dole: What I would have done really doesn’t matter, since I was not the President but…

President Reagan: But it does, it does mater.

Senator Dole: Excuse me Mr. President but I was not done. The point is that the President made a overly risky and poorly thought out decision in the face of the death of American hostages. He made a choice that put more lives at risk for the same end result..

President Reagan: The result would not have been the same. Americans would have died who did not die otherwise. If we had tried to negotiate they would have likely killed off many of the hostages to prove their point, because they did not want concessions, they wanted to prove a point.

Senator Dole: If they wanted to prove a point they would have just killed them all. What you did, Mr. President, was put not only their lives at risk but also the lives of US soldiers.

President Reagan: Yes, but it was successful and it saved many more lives in the process. The fact is that you have still not answered the question.

Senator Dole: The question is irrelevant because I was not President when these regrettable actions occurred.

President Reagan: But it is relevant because you do not know what you would have done because you know just as well as I do that this was the only way to ensure that the hostages would be freed, because all the Iranians had were a bunch of kids with guns and we have the greatest military on earth.

Following this the moderator would end the brawl and move on to the next question. However Dole had been caught in his own trap. While trying to portray Reagan as irresponsible he had instead made himself appear as though he was unsure of what to do and was simply swinging at the President with no real alternative. Most Americans said that they believed that the President was the clear winner of the second debate, while the town hall was a draw and Senator Dole won the domestic debate if only because the economy still stunk. But it would be the exchange over Iran that would define the debates as a whole, making Reagan the winner. However it would still be close heading into Election Day.

Reagan/Kennedy (D)-299 EVs, 51% of the PV
Dole/Thompson (R)-239 EVs, 49% of the PV

The narrow results of the election were not surprising, and neither was much of the map. The economic struggles helped Dole in the mid-west and rust-belt, but Reagan's strong foreign policy moves helped him to sure up the solid south. However the closest states were Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and California. Illinois was the only one which broke for Dole, due in large part to his pick of "Big Jim" Thompson as his Vice-Presidential nominee. California was pretty close, but Pennsylvania and Michigan were real nail-bitters as Reagan's strong support from unions pushed him over the edge and countered Dole's wide margins in rural regions.

1980 US Senate Elections

Despite Reagan's narrow victory, Republicans would gain in the Senate and House, primarily in the mid-west and in states where Dole won, such as Iowa and Washington. The margin in the Senate would still be 58-42, more than enough for Reagan to continue his economic policies that drew support from many Republicans and Democrats alike.
Republican Gains
-Alaska: Frank Murkowski
-Iowa: Chuck Grassley
-New Hampshire: Warren Rudman
-South Dakota: James Abdnor
-Washington: Slade Gorton
Democratic Gains
-Arizona: Bill Schulz
-New York: Elizabeth Holzman
-Pennsylvania: Arlen Specter

[hcallega]

Lawls. Reagan the Liberal.

Doomsday for the Republicans lol

But seriously I think it's fun to imagine What-If? Reagan never left parties. I like to believe that the GOP would be more like the party of George the elder.

However it's not all good for Democrats. There are a whole lot of Dixiecrats out there like Helms and Thurmond, not to mention a certain reverend who we all know and don't love!

[hcallega]

The Second Term of Ronald Reagan

Ronald Reagan’s victory over Bob Dole represented a mandate for the President. The American people had entrusted him to lead the nation forward and to continue with his domestic and foreign policies. In his second inauguration, the President made a promise to his citizens: “And today, my fellow Americans, I will make a promise to you. I promise that everyday that I sit in the Oval Office, I will work as hard as possible to ensure that the problems of today will not be the problems of your children. This generation will not be remembered as one that failed. It will not be viewed as one which gave up on the future. No, as long as I am the President of these United States it will be remembered as the generation that fought to make America as great as its people deserve.”

The President’s opening budget of his second term showed a commitment to the promises made in the inauguration. While increasing funding in education and health care, President Reagan also reduced spending on public works and discretionary spending. He also pushed for a tax increase on the highest earners and businesses in an attempt to curb inflation. By the end of February President Reagan’s approval rating stood at a solid 62%. Many believed that President Reagan would indeed fulfill his promise to lead the American people on to a greater future than even they had inherited.

Throughout the spring months, President Reagan embarked on a cross-country tour in support of his policies and in an attempt to rally support from voters. He would start by journeying through the south, hitting Richmond, Atlanta, Miami, and New Orleans. He would then travel to the Midwest, speaking in Cincinnati, Detroit, Chicago, and St. Louis. He would then return to his home-state of California, speaking in Los Angeles and Sacramento before going to the northeast where he would speak in Boston, New York, and Philadelphia. This was to be a massive undertaking which would draw the focus to the successes and potential successes of the President’s first term. However before he was to leave, Reagan was to deliver a speech to the national Chamber of Commerce to defend his policies. This was going to be a hostile crowd, but the President was never one to back down from a fight. Yet there was one thing that he could not account for. As he walked into the Chamber’s offices, a lone gunman emerged from the crowd, firing four shots. Two of the shots hit the President, one in the abdomen, the other in the spine. One of the other shots hit the President’s bodyguard in the arm; the other hit a bystander in the leg. Neither were lethal, although the shots that hit the President were. After being rushed to George Washington for treatment, the President would succumb to his wounds after several days of fighting for life. It was a chilling moment in American history, and for many it would forever define the Presidency of Ronald Wilson Reagan.

Following the President’s death, Vice-President Robert Kennedy was sworn in as President of the United States. Addressing the grieving nation, President Kennedy delivered a moving speech, highlighted by these words: “Yesterday we did not just loose a great President, but we lost a great man. For his wife Nancy, his children, and those close to him he will never be remembered as the man that created peace in Europe, freed the hostages, or set this country on the right economic course. They will remember him as Ronald, Ronnie, Dad. It is for these people that we must never forget the President, and we must never forget what he has done for us as a Nation. Good night friends, and God Bless you all.”

President Kennedy’s first major initiative was to continue the policies of President Reagan. Embarking on President Reagan’s planned tour, President Kennedy would deliver speech after speech in defense of President Reagan’s policies. Everywhere he went the President was greeted with cheers and overwhelmingly positive crowds that saw him not only as the standard-bearer of the fallen President’s legacy, but also the standard-bearer of his brother’s. Over time these twin duties would take their wear on the new President, but for now he was simply focused on preserving the legacy of his predecessor.

The one controversial moment of the trip actually came at the end. Many expected President Kennedy to speak at the Chamber of Commerce, as President Reagan had planned to do in the beginning. However the White House had been quite secretive in regards to where they would rap up the trip, and even when the President would speak at pre-scheduled destinations. Despite this, most believed that the President would likely go to what would be a much more sympathetic crowd at the COC. This was not to be however. Instead of speaking at the COC, President Kennedy made an appearance at the AFL-CIO’s convention. Giving a speech strongly in support of organized labor, the President made himself a powerful enemy in the Chamber, which would paint him as “public enemy #1 when it comes to economic recovery.”

President Kennedy would continue to take liberal stances throughout the rest of his first term, though he perhaps was even more hawkish than his predecessor. Supporting the Air Traffic Controllers in their strike, the President was able to help negotiate a favorable settlement for the Union. When a seat on the Supreme Court became open, the President selected career politician Mo Udall. Despite drawing criticism from Republicans who saw this as an obviously political move, Udall would be confirmed, if just narrowly. The President would also support the liberal economic policies of Reagan, leading to increased economic successes and strength. On foreign policy Kennedy would take a hard-line against Communism in Latin America, while also making sure to support humanitarian regimes. In the most extreme example, Kennedy deployed troops to Grenada to help protect the American students there. Many saw this as “Reagan-esque”, a recurring view of President Kennedy’s first term. Overall, despite the tragedy, President Kennedy’s first term in office was viewed as a good one, and one which continued the legacy of a fallen hero.

1982 Midterm Elections

With the recent death of President Reagan and the overall popularity of President Kennedy’s policies, The Democrats would make good gains both houses of Congress in 1982. In the Senate they would have a 64-36 super-majority, giving the President the ability to continue to pass liberal domestic legislation.

Democratic Gains
-California: Jerry Brown
-Connecticut: Toby Moffett
-Missouri: Harriet Woods
-New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg
-New Mexico: Jeff Bingaman
-Vermont: James Guest

[hcallega]

Good installment. What was the date of Reagan's assassination?

In this timeline, April 18th. He died on the 22nd.

[hcallega]

1981

[hcallega]

1984 Democratic Nomination

Riding a wave of popularity (and sympathy), President Robert Kennedy was viewed as particularly strong heading into the 1984 Presidential Election. Voters saw him as a true continuation of President Reagan, as well as a solid President in his own right whose compassion and humanity made him relatable on a level that few Presidents had ever achieved. Despite this, he was not without challengers within his own party.

Reagan’s secretary of the treasury and former Governor John Connally declared his intention to seek the Democratic nomination early in 1983, resigning from the cabinet to focus on his campaign. Connally was a conservative who helped to gain the support of southern Democrats as well as working class whites who might have been uncomfortable with some of Kennedy’s positions on issues like bussing, civil rights, and women’s rights. Connally also courted the support of business groups such as the Chamber of Commerce, an adamant opponent of Kennedy and his Keynesian economics. In fact the COC published a fairly supportive semi-endorsement of Connally: “For our members who are registered Democrats, 1984 presents a rare opportunity to challenge the prevailing notion among party leaders that tax-and-spend policies coupled with intense regulations lead to economic success. This could not be farther from the truth, and Secretary John Connally agrees with this. Both as Governor and as Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Connally has repeatedly taken stances favorable to the growth of business and the economy, despite the opposition from his own party. Thus we encourage members of the Democratic Party to vote for Mr. Connally in their state’s Democratic Primary.”

Connally outlined his primary campaign along several key points. The major focus fell on economics, where he made clear that he would push for new tax-cuts and deregulation to grow the private sector. He also supported spending cuts on domestic programs, though not to the same degree that many Republicans did. On foreign policy Connally spoke of confronting “the Evil Empire” and continuing to push it to eventual defeat. On social issues, Connally generally took conservative positions as well, coming out against bussing and abortion. Kennedy’s campaign, by comparison, focused on the improving economy as well as improving the general welfare of Americans and fighting to end poverty. Kennedy received the support of most of the national Democratic groups, including the AFL-CIO and the Americans for Democratic Action. Connally received only the support of conservative Democratic groups and several Dixiecrat senators, though he was unable to gain the endorsements of moderate Southerners like Senator Dale Bumpers of Arkansas, Fritz Hollings of South Carolina, and Robert Byrd of West Virginia. However his fundraising from big business kept him competitive.

In the primaries, Kennedy would pick up many early victories before Connally would finally pick up victories in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana, and North Carolina. Due to his disappointing primary campaign, Connally would withdraw from the race and reluctantly endorse the President.

At the convention, many Democratic leaders feared that Southerners would leave the convention due to Kennedy’s liberalism. However Senator Thurmond (a prominent supporter of Connally and the leader of the Dixiecrats) promised that he would support the President “barring any unforeseen change in his views towards something more undesirable.” Thus, at the convention in San Francisco, Kennedy and the Democrats would emphasize President Reagan, the improving economy and taking on Soviet Russia. The two most memorable speeches of the convention were quiet different in nature. The first was by former First Lady Nancy Reagan, who had since become a strong supporter of gun control and tough anti-crime and anti-drug legislation. First Lady Reagan took the stage in support of President Kennedy, applauding him for his work “to not only protect those like my husband, but also the people who we often do not hear about, but also suffer the same fate.” The other speech was by Secretary of Defense Jeanne Kirkpatrick, who claimed that “we must continue the work of the former President. Communism, Marxism, and Leninism must never gain a foothold ever again in any country, among any people, in this world!” Kennedy would also deliver a generally well-received acceptance speech, and choose Tennessee Representative Harold Ford as his Vice-Presidential Nominee. Though generally viewed as a good choice, many Dixiecrats were annoyed by the choice of a black as Vice-President, but did like how he was a southerner and a political moderate.

[hcallega]

In regards to the primary map, in this case Connally only won a few states, so I didn't think it was worth it. I meant to do one for the 1980 GOP, but somehow I screwed up.



By the way Historico, that was a weird site that you linked to!

[hcallega]

1984 Republican Nomination

Bob Dole’s defeat in 1980 did not defer the Republican Party in their quest for the White House in 1984. Conservatives and moderates alike believed that they had the answer to their party’s electoral woes. After all, they had not had a two term President since Dewey, and two of their incumbents had been defeated. However the party was still active as the opposition to Kennedy, and many believed that since he had never run for political office before, they could effectively defeat him.

Bob Dole, the 1980 Republican Nominee for President

The Republican candidates were a very similar group to the 1980 field. Both Senator Dole and George Bush ran, and quickly established themselves as the early frontrunners. Dole had the support of many conservatives who viewed his narrow defeat as a sign that he could indeed take the White House against the liberal Kennedy. However Bush quickly ran up big leads in fundraising, drawing support from the wealthy GOP establishment and businesses that saw him as a better candidate than Dole to take the Presidency back.

Bush with Dan Quayle campaigning in Indiana

However these two men were not alone in the race. Congressman Jack Kemp of New York drew support from the conservative grassroots and followers of Senator Barry Goldwater. However Kemp also drew support from moderates due to his strong support for civil rights and ending poverty. Kemp proposed “supply-side economics”, advocating flat-taxes, free trade, and deregulation to create economic growth. Delaware Governor Pierre du Pont also ran, focusing on ending welfare and social security reform. Senator Paul Laxalt of Nevada ran as a moderate and focused on foreign policy, while often referencing his friendship with the late President Reagan in an attempt to show his leadership and bipartisanship. However it often just reminded Republicans that Laxalt wasn’t the most loyal of GOP senators. RNC chairman Ben Fernandez was the last major candidate, garnering some support from party leadership, though his resignation as party chairman (due to his candidacy) hurt his name recognition.

Kemp and Dole following the first Republican debate in Iowa

Early polling showed a close two way tie between Bush and Dole, with Kemp running a strong third. However it was soon clear that the real battles for the nomination would not be in Iowa or New Hampshire, as Dole and Bush both had commanding leads there, respectively. The real race came in South Carolina (after big Dole victories in Iowa and South Dakota, and big Bush wins in New Hampshire, Maine, and Vermont). Here the major contenders went toe to toe over issues ranging from taxes to abortion to military service. The relatively small state party in South Carolina was primarily made up of businesses, suburban whites, and some urban blacks. Bush made his appeal directly to suburban voters, emphasizing his focus on low taxes and “leading America to a brighter and safer future.” Dole on the other hand targeted military voters due to his military record, speaking on issues of foreign policy. Kemp focused on running a campaign to appeal to independents and conservative Democrats not interested in the Democratic Primary. In the end, Bush would win a narrow win over Dole, with Kemp 8-points behind the Kansas Senator. Following the big win, Bush would real off victories in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana, with Dole winning Kentucky. From that point on, Bush was the clear frontrunner, suffering defeats only in the mid-west and west to Dole, while Kemp withdrew following the “super south” races, then endorsing Bush in an attempt to gain the Vice-Presidential nomination.

At the convention, the Republicans would unite around Bush, with Dole giving his strong support in his speech. The keynote address would be given by Barry Goldwater Jr. in support of his retiring father, who also spoke but in a much more minor role. Goldwater Jr. outlined that “today we must burry any animosity and unite around an experienced, thoughtful, and brave man who will lead our party to victory in November!” Bush would choose Representative Jack Kemp as his VP selection to form a strong GOP ticket.

[img]http://www.desmoinesregister.com/assets/jpg/1988handshake350px.jpg[/img

Kemp with Republican Presidential contenders during the Convention

[hcallega]

I think picking Ford would provide that "unforeseen change in his views towards something more undesirable" that Thurmond was talking about.....

On the surface yes, but at the same time there is less racial tension in American than in OTL, so choosing a moderate southerner that happens to be black is not as big a deal as it would have been in OTL. The reality is that for Thurmond and company, choosing someone like Jesse Jackson or the like would be undesirable, but not choosing a fellow southerner and moderate.

[hcallega]

The Presidential Election of 1984

The showdown between Kennedy and Bush pitted two of the Northeast's most powerful political families against each other. However there was more to this race than simply clashing dynasties and large war chests. Both parties saw this as a major opportunity; for the Democrats a chance to win a third consecutive election, for the Republicans there best shot at defeating an incumbent since Winnie Rockefeller. It was sure to be a great race.

The opening polls showed a strong lead for Bobby, who was strongly supported by labor and minority groups who saw him as their strongest advocate. In deed, as President, Attorney General, and even Harvard Law Professor, Kennedy had been a strong supporter of Civil Rights, much more so than his brother. Kennedy also drew support from Hispanics, in part due to his faith and in part due to his strong support of worker's rights (he was close friends with the late Cesar Chavez).

Bush on the other hand was far more moderate, both a positive and a negative. On the one hand he appealed to a large swath of voters, especially suburban and middle class whites. But at the same time he did not receive outright strong support from conservative groups that had rallied behind Dole and previous nominees. In fact, many saw Bush as no better than Kennedy in the long run. However at least on the surface groups like the Chamber of Commerce were eager to endorse him over their arch-enemy in Kennedy.

Despite a narrow lead in the polls, Kennedy was eager to debate Bush in an attempt to broaden his appeal and perhaps put the nail in the coffin that was Bush's campaign. His lackluster support from conservative groups, combined with a generally weak campaign theme made it look as if this could be what finally knocked out the GOP insider. However the debates would actually be where Bush made a nice comeback. Focusing on the problems in the cities, especially crime, Bush effectively portrayed Kennedy as weak on this key issue to many voters, while coming off himself as the strong fatherly candidate. Yet on the economy Bush was unable to withstand Kennedy's barrage of attacks against Bush's "failed policies of the past." Kennedy also played up his connection to the late President Reagan, evoking "the patriotism of the past, which will guide us forward today and into the future." These images and attacks made the debates a draw, which actually favored Bush as many believed that his campaign would essentially be over with a bad performance.

Heading into election day, Bush would continue his barrage of attacks over crime and the plight of the cities in a desperate attempt to woo suburban whites, but for the most part it was too little too late. Americans felt comfortable and confident behind Kennedy and his leadership, while also fearing the possibility of a return to a recession.

Kennedy/Ford (D) 314 EVs, 54% of the PV
Bush/Kemp (R) 224 EVs, 45% of the PV

1984 Congressional Elections

Despite a mandate for the Democratic Party in the 1984 elections, the Democrats in the congress would gain relatively little. In the Senate, the Democrats would win in Iowa and Tennessee, but would fail to gain anywhere else. In the house they would make small gains aswell. The final Senate tally would be 66-34.

Democratic Gains
-Iowa: Tom Harkin
-Tennessee: Al Gore

[hcallega]

Robert Kennedy's First Term

In January of 1985, Robert Kennedy was elected to his first full term as President of the United States of America. In his inaugural address, the President addressed the growing concerns among Americans of a post-Soviet world: “The communist domination of Eastern Europe is coming to an end, but that does not mean that we can no longer pay attention to those countries and those people. For if we do, we not only run the risk of war and destruction, but of genocide. Simply because communism ends does not mean peace begins.”

Kennedy would indeed focus much of his attention in his first term on foreign policy, while also continuing to preside over the improving economy. An early positive for the President was the announcement that Mikhail Gorbachev, a moderate reformer, was the new Soviet Premier. Gorbachev would speed up the withdrawal of Soviet Troops from the Eastern Bloc, while still supporting the local Communist parties. By the end of 1985 Soviet Troops would only be occupying Russian speaking territory. Drawing on advice from new Secretary of State Jeanne Kirkpatrick, Kennedy would craft a foreign policy focused on both pressuring communist regimes while also working to spread democracy to the newly free peoples. While drawing praise from the likes Eliot Abrams and Bill Kristol, it also ran up against opposition from both liberals and conservatives. Former Senator Barry Goldwater criticized President Kennedy for “spending money on what amounts to Star-Spangled Banner T-Shirts for every little Polish boy and girl. It’s nice, but it does nothing and costs too damn much.” Some liberals, such as Kennedy ally George McGovern would also come out against the President’s foreign policy. Writing an op-ed for the New York Times, the former South Dakota Senator would call the plan “the sort of foreign policy more akin to the late British Empire…..I honestly thought that the United States of America was beyond its irrational fear of communism and socialism.” Nonetheless, most Americans supported what the President called “The Kirkpatrick Plan” in the 1985 State of the Union Address.

Other foreign policy focuses for President Kennedy would involve a passionate speech to the nation defending economic sanctions on South Africa, as well as airstrikes on Libya. However a defining moment on foreign policy for the President would be when Hezbollah terrorists would hijack an American flight. With 39 hostages held in Beirut, Lebanon, it was clear that the President would have to do something. Some proposed that the President send in the 101st Airborne or Delta Force a la Tehran, but most believed that it would be far too risky, especially in a country not already at odds with America. Secretary Kirkpatrick would come up with an option that few thought of. Several moderate members of the Iranian government had gone to the Israeli Government to request arms in their war against Iraq. In turn the Israeli’s had gone to America to receive reimbursement and support in these dealings. Kirkpatrick was extremely supportive of the plan, especially with the added incentive that it could lead to the release of the hostages. Kennedy approved of the reimbursement of the arms, though was skeptical of any direct arms deals, which Kirkpatrick saw it as necessary to the freeing of the hostages. Eventually she would back down, but only after it became clear that members of the government clearly favored going ahead with the arms sails. It would be CIA agent Jack McFarland who would directly facilitate the deal. While the details remain unclear, McFarland was able to secretly facilitate the sail of anti-air missiles to Iran, leading in turn to the release of the hostages. However, the deal would be discovered by investigative reporting by Bob Woodward following the “suspicious and immediate release of the hostages in Beirut.” Woodward would uncover McFarland’s role, leading to his arrest and testimony before congress in which it became clear to some that McFarland was taking his orders from higher up, with some Republicans claiming that President Kennedy was directly responsible. Nonetheless there was no evidence of any wrongdoing from higher up, only that somebody had taken funds from the Israeli Defense Fund to use on Iranian Arms, and that McFarland had been the middle-man. Nonetheless, Kennedy approval rating was at an all-time low.

Tom Hank's would immortalize Agent McFarland in the 2007 Blockbuster "The Deal"

On domestic policy, Kennedy would pass a welfare reform intended on promoting work over unemployment. The plan would receive widespread support and be passed by congress. Kennedy would also declare a “War on AIDS, not on those infected by AIDS”. On this issue, members of Kennedy’s own party would even break with the President over his insistence that the virus be taken head on. However the plan would receive enough support from moderates and liberals to pass in congress. Kennedy would be defeated as the Rudman (R-NH)-Hollings (D-SC)-Gramm (D-TX) bill would pass, limiting deficit spending and passing over Kennedy’s veto. Another negative for the President would be stock-market crash of 1988, derailing many positives over the economy; however unemployment would be at a generational-low. This, along with ongoing talks with Gorbachev left Kennedy at a positive end to his first term.

1986 Congressional Elections

Despite strong popularity, Kennedy would not see the Democrats expand on their super majority, as they held at 66-34. However the Republicans would see the defeat of incumbent Alan Cranston, the only incumbent defeated. In the house the Republicans would take a chunk out of the Democratic majority, narrowing the majority to aprx. 20 seats for new Speaker Jim Wright
Republican Gains
-California: Ed Zschau
-Colorado: Ken Kramer
-Missouri: Kit Bond
Democratic Gains
-Maryland: Barbara Mikulski
-Nevada: Harry Reid
-North Carolina: Terry Sanford

[hcallega]

Did we clarify or not if the 22nd Amendment still passed ITTL? If so, Bobby would be ineligable to run for a "Second" term in '88 due him having served out over two years of Ronnie's expired term. If not He's probably going down in a miserable defeat in '88 or it will be interesting to see if Ford get's the nod...Keep it comming.

It was never passed due to no real political motivation. Believe me, 1988 is going to be a heck of a race!

[hcallega]

1988: The Race that Never Was?

President Kennedy’s approval ratings were far below expected in December of 1987. Americans believed that despite all the good achieved in the realm of US-Soviet Relations and a better economy than in 1981 (when Kennedy first took office) had been undone (or at least diminished) by the Iran Arms Fiasco. Early polls pitting Kennedy against potential Republicans such as Jack Kemp of New York put Kennedy at a significant disadvantage. While liberals and southerners still supported Kennedy (for very different reasons), moderates and labor were reluctant to throw their support behind someone so controversial. Thus it was no surprise that on December 17th, President Kennedy would address the nation: “Today, in part due to the events of the past several years and in part due to the political climate, I am announcing that I will not seek nor will I accept the Democratic Party’s nomination for the Presidency of the United States.” Kennedy’s withdrawal opened up the field for a whole swath of candidates from all sides of the Democratic Party.

However many of the big names in the Democratic Party did not seek the Presidency. Vice-President Ford, a moderate southerner also popular with blacks, announced on December 19th that he would not run, instead preferring to work for political lobbying groups in Tennessee and Washington. Secretary of State Jeanne Kirkpatrick who just two years earlier was being cast as the first female Chief Executive also withdrew her name from consideration, primarily due to Iran. Liberal favorites Ted Kennedy and Mario Cuomo also held out, perhaps hopping for better pastures in 1992. Former Senator Gary Hart, a favorite of progressive, and freshmen Senator Al Gore of Tennessee also both declined to run, despite favorable polling. The field was lacking a frontrunner, and it was clear that whoever was to win would have to both raise money and make people know who the heck they were!

The first candidate to declare his candidacy was Congressman Richard Gephardt of Missouri. A political moderate and strong supporter of labor, Gephardt was a logical candidate for the early primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, but his lackluster campaigning style combined with his lack of gravitas made him a weak choice for the national party. The next choice however was certainly not a favorite of party leaders. Reverend Pat Robertson, a evangelical leader from Virginia, declared his candidacy for the Presidency. Robertson, a staunch social conservative, campaigned on “redeeming America” and reforming Washington. Despite being practically disowned by the Democratic leadership, Robertson’s populist rhetoric appealed to Southern and Westerners. But Robertson wasn’t the only man of the cloth to get in on the race. Jesse Jackson of New York declared his candidacy shortly after Robertson’s, but focused his campaign on relieving poverty and as a foreign policy dove focusing on the Middle East. However Jackson’s radicalism was also off-putting for national leaders, and they desperately courted Senator Joe Biden of Delaware to run. The self-proclaimed “New Deal Liberal” quickly took a lead nationally, but this was quickly shot down by Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis. More liberal than Biden, Dukakis was able to distance himself from Washington while still drawing support from Kennedy supporters. Finally, conservative Texas Senator Phil Gramm declared his candidacy to run as a fiscal conservative and opponent of Kennedy’s domestic policies.

Entering Iowa the public consensus was that the local Gephardt would pull off a victory. The only question was by how much, and whether it would be Biden or Dukakis who finished in second. However the results could not have been more surprising. When the caucuses opened up, many Dukakis and Biden supporters assumed that it would be a battle between the two liberals for the second spot, but in reality a third candidate would rise from the field. Before the day was done it would be Reverend Robertson who would finish in a close second to Rep. Gephardt in a stunning upset. Biden would finish in third with Dukakis in fourth, followed by Jackson and then Gramm. The national media was shocked, as were party activists. All of a sudden someone who few in America saw as anything more than a preacher and Evangelist was second in the delegate count. However Robertson’s victory wasn’t so shocking in retrospect. He poured his money into the state while energizing Evangelicals and born-agains, while focusing on getting Republicans and Independents to show up for him rather than the GOP caucuses. Now the real question was whether or not he could do it again.

Heading into New Hampshire Gephardt was the frontrunner if only because Biden and Dukakis’s campaigns were in real trouble. However Dukakis’s local presence helped him bridge the gap and he finished with a narrow win over Gephardt with Biden in third, followed by Jackson, Robertson, and Gramm. Following the results Gramm would withdraw from the race, endorsing Robertson: “He truly understands what is wrong with Washington. I hope to work with him when he is elected President. It will be a privilege to serve with a man of God.”

The next test came in South Dakota where Gephardt would capture a major victory, followed by a Dukakis win in Vermont. With South Carolina on the immediate horizon, it looked like a race between Dukakis and Gephardt, with the other candidates on the fringes. However both Robertson and Jackson polled well in the conservative state. But with support from both black and white evangelicals and conservatives, it would be Robertson who would capture his first victory of the primaries, followed by Gephardt and Jackson, with Biden and Dukakis finishing with disappointing results. Biden would withdraw afterwards and endorse Gephardt: “This is a man who understands the plight of working people and I urge my supporters to follow him to victory!”

March 8th was Super Tuesday, and few knew who would prevail. The plethora of races across the country made it unsure of who would come out on top, primarily due to the geography. National polls showed Gephardt in the lead followed by Dukakis, but Robertson and Jackson both hoped to pull off wins in the Deep South to continue the chaos. Jackson would capture his first (and only) victories in Georgia and North Carolina, with Robertson winning in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Gephardt would be victorious in Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Nevada, and Idaho. Dukakis would stay alive with wins in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Washington, but it was clear that he was not likely to win.
Due to the upcoming races however, Dukakis would stay in the race, vowing “I will never give up on America, and this election is so key to preserving what we believe is right in government and what we believe is wrong.” On this mark he was correct, upsetting Gephardt in Illinois by less than 2%. This victory was significant due to Gephardt loosing a neighboring state and one with a strong union presence if that. However Dukakis would do very well among ethnics in Chicago, with Jackson doing well among blacks in the city. Dukakis would also win in Connecticut, this time by a big margin. Gephardt would bounce back however with big wins in New York (helped by support from the state party), Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, making him the clear frontrunner. Jackson would pick up another victory in D.C., but had no real impact. Gephardt would win in Indiana and Ohio by big margins, as he picked up more momentum and more delegates. He would continue to dominate, winning in Nebraska, West Virginia, Idaho, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and finally North Dakota, with Dukakis winning in Oregon.

Image Link[/img]

At the convention in Atlanta, Jesse Jackson would give the invocation, delivering a powerful prayer. Speakers included Ted Kennedy, Robert Byrd, and Robert Kennedy, as well as Nancy Reagan. Pat Robertson would give a very stirring speech, praising Gephardt as “a man who believes in the true promises of Jesus Christ, and with our help he can fulfill the promises of God to the United States of America.” Gephardt would choose Tennessee Senator Al Gore as his Vice-President, creating a moderate ticket in an attempt to distance themselves from President Kennedy.

[hcallega]

1988: The Republican Field

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1988 was a new year for the Republican Party, and one which many saw as full of opportunity. The incumbent was unpopular and the Democratic Party was divided, with many looking for a new leader who simply was not there. Republicans however were also in quite a mess. Lacking a unifying figure, the party went into 1988 hopping that whoever won the nomination would unite the party and lead it to victory.

The early frontrunner for the nomination was former Congressman and 1984 Vice-Presidential Nominee Jack Kemp. Kemp was the closest thing to a unity candidate around, as he drew support from both the waning northeastern establishment and the growing conservative wing. Granted Kemp was not the most exciting candidate in the field, but he definitely was the most established and most electable in the current political map. Trailing Kemp in the polls were several high-profile candidates, none of which holding the same name recognition or political sway. New Hampshire Governor John Sununu was one of the first too declare his candidacy, focusing on his close ties to George Bush and GOP leadership, while also emphasizing his center-right views. Senator Nancy Kassembaum of Kansas was another popular alternative to Kemp, running as a traditional western Republican. Senator Richard Lugar also ran in 1988, focusing his theme on criticism of Robert Kennedy’s foreign policy proposals and reeling in domestic spending. Finally, Governor Tom Kean of New Jersey ran as the most liberal of the GOP candidates, attempting to move the party back towards the center and the victorious candidacy’s of the Rockefeller’s and Dewey.

The race was characterized by the media as “Jack Kemp and the four dwarves”, an effective metaphor for the field. Kemp was not only the favorite in the polls but also in the fundraising and endorsement field, as groups like the NRA and National Right to Life Committee campaign furiously for the social conservative. However the Chamber of Commerce and other fiscally conservative and pro-business groups were not so quick to endorse Kemp over his competitors. Using this as campaign fodder, Lugar would run a series of ads critical of Kemp’s anti-poverty views, especially the Time article that named a young Jack Kemp “The Greatest Fighter of Poverty since FDR”. However Kemp spun this in a good direction, claiming that it proved that he was not simply going to do whatever his party told him and instead “do what I know is right in my heart.”

Unfortunately the reality of the race did not favor Kemp to begin with. In Iowa Kassembaum would win a narrow victory over Kemp, benefitting from her mid-western roots. New Hampshire wouldn’t be any better, as Governor Sununu won a solid victory. The next three primaries would be of no help either, as Kassembaum would capture South Dakota while Sununu won in Vermont and Maine. Rolling into South Carolina, Time Magazine would brand Kemp as “The Frontrunner who never won”, while characterizing the race as wide open. However Kemp would score a major victory in the Palmetto State, winning over half of the vote with Lugar in second. Following Kemp’s victory in South Carolina, he would reel off a streak of wins in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, and Louisiana, before being upset by Kean in Maryland by a narrow margin, Sununu in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, and Kassembaum in Oklahoma on Super Tuesday. However Kemp was clearly in control and all but Kean would withdraw from the race, endorsing the frontrunner from New York. However Kean would mount a “crusade against the radicals within our party who wish to slash away at government until it serves no purpose but to wage war and throw people in jail. I want to see a good government! A government which people can have faith in to do the right thing! A government which protects its people but also helps them in times of need! A government which we can truly call GOOD!” Kean’s passionate speech would become an instant classic and rallying cry for liberal republicans, who would help Kean win in Connecticut, D.C., and New Jersey before the primaries were over.

At the convention held in New Orleans, Republicans played up how Democratic leadership failed the people of the nation, focusing on the poverty in New Orleans, a city under one-party rule. Kemp would receive strong support from all branches of the party (outside of liberals and some moderates), including business and fiscal conservatives who doubted his willingness to take on a Democratic congress over the budget. In deed even Grover Norquist would deliver a keynote address at the convention, calling on all Americans “to rally behind the first nominee in a long time who truly cares about making government small again, and allowing the people of this nation to be free to work and prosper.”  Kemp would choose Texas Businessman and “paleo-conservative” Ross Perot as his Vice-Presidential nominee. A strong opponent of Kennedy’s internationalism and spending policies, Perot appealed to westerners and opponents of big government.

However the conservative GOP ticket would ruffle some feathers in the party. Worried that the party was taking a right-ward route, and not satisfied with the Democratic ticket that “was in the deep pockets of organized labor”, liberal republican leaders would nominate Illinois Congressman John Anderson as a Presidential Candidate for “The National Republican Party”. Not intended to be a third party per say, the National Republicans simply wanted to make a point that they were not privy to the conservative takeover. Anderson would choose Admiral James Stockdale as his Vice-Presidential nominee, symbolizing the reform elements to the parties ticket.

[hcallega]

Anderson/Stockdale 88'!!!!!!!!!

I figured as much. That's part of why I added in a third party, as posters like you kept asking for someone else to vote for!

[hcallega]

The 1988 Presidential Election: Three Congressmen, One White House

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For the first time in US history, both major party nominees highest political office was in the United States House of Representatives. Gephardt, a rising star in Congress, had chosen not to pursue the Speakership (a position many saw him as perfect for) and instead attempted to cross the tight-wire that is the Presidential Election. But with strong support from organized labor (especially the UAW), Gephardt would capitalize on the lack of a clear frontrunner and take the nomination by storm. His choice of moderate Tennessee Senator Al Gore was viewed as a perfect compliment, as he was conservative on social issues (crime, abortion, school prayer) but also liberal on issues key to party leadership (labor, health care, environment). It goes without saying that he would also help hold the upper-south, an increasingly Republican part of the country.

On the other side of the aisle was Jack Kemp, the 1984 GOP Vice-Presidential Nominee and favorite of both conservatives and moderates within the party. As the early frontrunner for his party’s nomination, Kemp was able to control the debate, choosing to focus on the failures of the Kennedy administration on the home front, in particular the deficit and the President’s increasingly unpopular “tax-and-spend” policies. This was further reinforced by the choice of Texas Billionaire Ross Perot as Vice-President. Perot, though an isolationist and social liberal, was a strong opponent of Kennedy on domestic policy and had become a prominent national figure via his “Ross Talks” political infomercials. The ticket looked very strong going into November, but one of the keys was holding the GOP coalition together.

The threat to the GOP was primarily from within it’s own party. On the one hand there was the “National Republican” Ticket. Moderate GOP congressman John Anderson and former Admiral and POW James Stockdale lead disgruntled liberal Republicans angered by Kemp’s conservative policies. They focused on running a campaign based on fiscal responsibility and social liberalism. The National Republican’s would draw most of their support from suburban whites in the northeast and west-coast who were turned off by Kemp’s views, but were also very unhappy with President Kennedy’s policies.

On the surface this race seemed like it would be uninteresting and passion-less. Indeed both Kemp and Gephardt were viewed as almost boring, while Anderson was no firecracker either. However this would not turn out to be the case. Gephardt, down in the polls following the nominating conventions, would fire the opening salvo with an advertisement called the “Trade Ad”. The ad, attacking Kemp’s support of the Free Trade Agreement of America Agreement, showed a satellite image of the United States. As the image panned across the screen, the lights of the cities started to go out, while clumps of new lights formed in Canada and Mexico, specifically around the border. The narrator, talking in a dark voice, made the point that Kemp “has always sided with big business when it comes to trade. He says he is simply supporting growth. That’s true, and Mexico and Canada are looking forward to seeing their economies grow while ours continues to suffer.” The ad was focused on dispelling Kemp’s “Blue-Collar” image, and was initially quite successful. Wisely the Kemp camp would send Perot, an opponent of the trade deal, to the media. “Congressman Gephardt is just trying to change the debate. If the problems in America were all routed in trade, do you think I would be standing with Jack Kemp? No I certainly wouldn’t, and that’s because the real problems are a massive deficit and debt that threaten to put a stranglehold on our nation for eternity!”

However Kemp would use some dirty tricks as well. Running a national ad critical of Gephardt, he would call out the congressman as a flip-flopper. The ad showed clips of Gephardt along with quotes in regards to issues ranging from taxes, the economy, and foreign policy. This would become a major focus for Kemp’s campaign, as he attempted to portray Gephardt as saying one thing at one time, and then going back on it when the political climate changed. These ads seemed like standard fare on the surface, but reinforced the reputation of the Democrats as untrustworthy in the wake of the Iran Arms Deal. Heading into October, Kemp still had a fairly strong lead in the polls.

But it was impossible to count Gephardt out just yet. Running what his advisors called the “Heartland Blitz”, the campaign would stop campaigning in states and areas where the focus was not on issues Gephardt could run on. This meant ignoring New England and the West Coast, while focusing on the rust-belt, Midwest, and South. Focusing on trade, education, and jobs, Gephardt’s biggest focus was on casting himself as the candidate of the people. Kemp’s campaign still ran as the frontrunners, campaigning in states ranging from California to Connecticut. Anderson also ran an aggressive campaign, but was uninspiring at best.

The key for the campaigns soon became the debates. For Gephardt it would be a chance to either take the lead or at least pull even. For Kempt it could be the nail in the coffin that he could deliver to Gephardt. Anderson was simply focused on getting in, an achievement he would be unable to deliver. So with the two industrial area congressman going at it, the sparks soon began to fly. Gephardt called Kemp “big businesses best friend” and “a tool of the Republican special interests” while emphasizing his own “consistent support for industry and workers in this great nation.” Kemp would retort with his own harsh words, calling Gephardt “the most inconsistent Presidential nominee that we have seen…EVER!” and making it clear that “while my opponent has made jobs the focus of his campaign, he has forgotten my record on the matter. I believe that jobs are the key to fixing the problems of this nation, whether they be poverty or, of course, unemployment. Yes, I support Free Trade, but that is because it will provide better jobs and lead to greater economic growth, which also provides jobs. So yes, as President I will push for a North American Free Trade deal, but not because I am some tool of special interests, but because I want to see this great nation move forward as a globalized one, not an isolated one.”