Recent Posts
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 07, 2024, 09:26:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

Filter Options Collapse
        


Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 10

 1 
 on: Today at 09:24:09 AM 
Started by SnowLabrador - Last post by Xing
Considering that she overperformed Evers by 10 in her most recent race, I don't think it's accurate at all to say that she has "no crossover appeal." Crossover appeal is not based solely on ideology. I obviously don't think she'll overperform Biden by 10, but I do think she will by 3-5%, which will very likely be enough to pull out a win unless Democrats are having a really atrocious night. Baldwin +4 is my current guess.

 2 
 on: Today at 09:21:42 AM 
Started by freepcrusher - Last post by Skill and Chance
During the housing bubble, getting a mortgage for a suburban home was much easier (not because houses were cheaper, but just because banks were more reckless in handing out mortgages). Nowadays, suburbs, even if socially more diverse, are more out of reach economically than they were, say 20 years ago. At the same time, we're at a point where the generation of 80s-90s tech entrepreneurs are hitting retirement age and, even if most probably aren't newly moving to the suburbs for the first time, that's one of the cadres that can afford to, and which might be looking to leave the city. So the educational/career background of suburbanites is also shifting.

I don't think this is quite true.  The current housing crisis is a very recent phenomenon (at least outside of NYC/SF metros), especially for people who are willing to move to the suburbs.  On a national average, housing prices are now 1.5X what they were at the beginning of COVID.  In parts of the Sunbelt, its >2X.  When you combine that with rising interest rates, your mortgage payment is >2X what it would have been in 2020 for the very same house. 

However, the 2010's were a totally different story.  If you kept your job after 2008, the early 2010's were literally the best buying opportunity for suburban single family homes since WWII! You had people with only modestly above average incomes becoming mega landlords during this period.

And while prices gradually increased in the late 2010's, they weren't obviously increasing faster than incomes.  There was actually a slight nominal price decline after the initial efforts to raise interest rates in 2018-19.  Suburban homes were more affordable than the historical average literally until the eve of COVID.  Yes, underwriting standards were stricter, but if you could get a loan, mortgage rates were <= 5% for over a decade.  IMO this is a hugely underrated factor in why so many voters keep counterintuitively saying the economy was better in 2020.

 3 
 on: Today at 09:18:25 AM 
Started by Virginiá - Last post by Open Source Intelligence
Good listen on taking a long look at the war from its beginning, where the U.S. first overestimated and then underestimated Russia, and geopolitical ramifications from War on the Rocks (was recorded just before Congress passed the supplemental bill):

http://www.warontherocks.com/2024/05/ukraine-and-a-fractured-world/

I completely agree on the "fractured world" take at the end. The geopolitics of this war and how we've left the post-Cold War world for good is not really talked about outside of D.C. think tank circles in this country. I think the Israel-Gaza conflict shows in its own way we've also left the post-Cold War world.

Something I learned from this is Zelensky's justice minister has put forward a bill in the parliament to conscript convicts like Russia has.

 4 
 on: Today at 09:16:25 AM 
Started by VBM - Last post by Hindsight was 2020
Beat me to it

 5 
 on: Today at 09:14:36 AM 
Started by Minnesota Mike - Last post by H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY

 6 
 on: Today at 09:10:00 AM 
Started by Matty - Last post by Skill and Chance
Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.
Those where Trump internals.

This wouldn’t be guaranteed lead to a Republican 08 but it could lead to a 269-269 tie

My point is that this is a 9 point swing right from 2020.  And from a polling outfit traditionally associated with Dems!

Yes, the most recent close MN and VA polls were Trump internals.  However, there have been non-partisan polls in both finding similar results in the recent past.  There was a Biden +2 Survey USA in MN earlier this year, for example. 

 7 
 on: Today at 09:09:05 AM 
Started by 🦀🎂🦀🎂 - Last post by Filuwaúrdjan
Oh there's always a fair amount of churn in local elections at ward level, even in years that are Bad for one party or other. Turnout would have needed to have been a bit higher across the board for a total steamroller effect.

 8 
 on: Today at 09:07:25 AM 
Started by JMT - Last post by Xing
Probably Trone. Either one will underperform Biden by a lot... and still very easily win.

 9 
 on: Today at 09:04:27 AM 
Started by VBM - Last post by Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
Redban for obviously reason pretending to be an RFK fan and wants him to split the vote for Trump

Even if you are middle class I don't see how you support Trump, he is for the wealthy . Ever since Reagan they have been explicitly for the Bankers class.

Trump Toupee who thinks Trump is the best President that ever lived

 10 
 on: Today at 09:02:07 AM 
Started by Matty - Last post by Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
This is a poll MOE, and it's a good poll for Biden not bad polls, we expected Biden to win NE 2 by a landslide and he isn't but he is making gains all over look at CA 27 and it's not October yet

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 10


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 12 queries.