I think recent Scottish local byelections have pretty accurately shown the SNP's decline from previous electoral domination, but I do still suspect they show the Tories doing a bit better than they are likely to in a Westminster election - where Sunak's mob are currently no better regarded than in England.
I think there's evidence of a fairly high "neither SNP nor Tory" vote for an area where politics has been a contest between the two for some time: note the decent increases for both Labour and the Lib Dems, albeit from a low base, and the high rate of exhaustion when the Labour candidate was eliminated.
What that vote will do in a General Election is I think an unknown. It might end up just going Labour or Lib Dem, leading to the potential for either the Tories or SNP to win seats on low vote shares. (Though this actual ward will be in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry, which is essentially the successor to Dundee East and not a likely Tory seat; the Election Maps UK nowcast has Labour in second there.)
