Gallup with some sobering analysis re: Biden’s approval rating

[Matty]

In Gallup’s latest poll, conducted April 1-22, 38% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing, essentially unchanged from his March (40%) and February (38%) readings.

Biden continues to get extraordinarily low approval ratings from Republicans -- just 2% in the latest poll -- but his rating from independents is also weak, at 33%. The vast majority of Democrats, 83%, continue to evaluate Biden’s performance positively.

Biden averaged a 38.7% job approval during his recently completed 13th quarter in office, which began on Jan. 20 and ended April 19. None of the other nine presidents elected to their first term since Dwight Eisenhower had a lower 13th-quarter average than Biden.

George H.W. Bush had the previous low 13th-quarter average approval rating, at 41.8% in 1992. Donald Trump and Barack Obama, Biden’s immediate predecessors in office, averaged 46.8% and 45.9% job approval, respectively, at the same point in their presidencies.

Jimmy Carter is the only other president with a sub-50% average in his 13th quarter. Three of the four prior presidents who had 13th-quarter approval averages below 50% lost their reelection bids, with Obama the exception.

From a broader historical perspective, Biden’s most recent quarterly average ranks 277th out of 314 presidential quarters in Gallup records dating to 1945. That puts javascript:void(0);it in the bottom 12% of all presidential quarters.

In this election year, when Biden is hoping U.S. voters reward him with a second term, he is needing some positive momentum to put him in a stronger position to be reelected. However, that didn’t occur during the past three months, with Americans no more positive about how Biden is doing his job than they were in his prior quarter, or for most of the past three years. This is the case even after Biden delivered his election-year State of the Union speech in March, a chance for him to sell his accomplishments directly to the American people.

With about six months remaining before Election Day, Biden stands in a weaker position than any prior incumbent, and thus faces a taller task than they did in getting reelected.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/644252/biden-13th-quarter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx

[GAinDC]

Trump and Carter were experiencing a bit of a rebound at this point in their terms due to Covid and the hostage crisis, respectively. But both went on to see their approvals dip.

Of course I'd like to see Biden with higher numbers, but Presidential approval isn't what it used to be. With today's fractured and polarizing media landscape, it's really hard for any President to be above 50% for a long amount of time.

This November, one of two things will become clear: That Biden's low approval ratings made him just as vulnerable as any other one-term President, or that the extraordinary circumstances and stakes in this race mattered more than what they thought of Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isnt at 38 he's at 45 how many times does Vaccinated Bear tells us this we know you are Vaccinated Bear

[kwabbit]

Trump and Carter were experiencing a bit of a rebound at this point in their terms due to Covid and the hostage crisis, respectively. But both went on to see their approvals dip.

Of course I'd like to see Biden with higher numbers, but Presidential approval isn't what it used to be. With today's fractured and polarizing media landscape, it's really hard for any President to be above 50% for a long amount of time.

This November, one of two things will become clear: That Biden's low approval ratings made him just as vulnerable as any other one-term President, or that the extraordinary circumstances and stakes in this race mattered more than what they thought of Biden.

When it comes to 1st quarter averages, COVID wouldn't factor in that much. The first impeachment is what unified Trump supporters behind him. That's something Biden needs honestly. The Biden impeachment actually happening would've been the greatest gift the GOP could've given him. His approval is going to rise through the election and I doubt he'll be that much lower than 45% on e-day if he is lower in the first place, but it's better for him to get that ball rolling earlier.

[2016]

Trump and Carter were experiencing a bit of a rebound at this point in their terms due to Covid and the hostage crisis, respectively. But both went on to see their approvals dip.

Of course I'd like to see Biden with higher numbers, but Presidential approval isn't what it used to be. With today's fractured and polarizing media landscape, it's really hard for any President to be above 50% for a long amount of time.

This November, one of two things will become clear: That Biden's low approval ratings made him just as vulnerable as any other one-term President, or that the extraordinary circumstances and stakes in this race mattered more than what they thought of Biden.

Trumps Job Approval on E-Night 2020 per EXITS was 47 % Nationally. Biden isn't even close hitting that Number.
And even in the States Trump lost like WI, PA, MI it was over 45 % and in GA & AZ it was close to 50 %.

Biden is in profound trouble if he doesn't get these Numbers up by Summer.

[Comrade Funk]

This has been an obvious car crash since at least last summer.

[GAinDC]

Trump and Carter were experiencing a bit of a rebound at this point in their terms due to Covid and the hostage crisis, respectively. But both went on to see their approvals dip.

Of course I'd like to see Biden with higher numbers, but Presidential approval isn't what it used to be. With today's fractured and polarizing media landscape, it's really hard for any President to be above 50% for a long amount of time.

This November, one of two things will become clear: That Biden's low approval ratings made him just as vulnerable as any other one-term President, or that the extraordinary circumstances and stakes in this race mattered more than what they thought of Biden.

Trumps Job Approval on E-Night 2020 per EXITS was 47 % Nationally. Biden isn't even close hitting that Number.
And even in the States Trump lost like WI, PA, MI it was over 45 % and in GA & AZ it was close to 50 %.

Biden is in profound trouble if he doesn't get these Numbers up by Summer.

I think he will

[Bojack Horseman]

but his rating from independents is also weak, at 33%

To quote Brian Griffin, “Independent voters are the biggest idiots on the planet.” I do not understand how anyone outside the right wing media bubble can disapprove of Joe Biden. The economy is better than it was before Covid. We got gun control and infrastructure passed. Insulin is capped at $35. What is wrong with these people?

[Agafin]

Biden getting 2% (!!!) approval from republicans has to be a record low for any president from either party right? Did W or Nixon ever get that low with democrats? I guess the existence of "ancestral dems" means that even at their lowest points, these very unpopular republican presidents could still count on the support of 5-10% of dems right?

[Comrade Funk]

but his rating from independents is also weak, at 33%

To quote Brian Griffin, “Independent voters are the biggest idiots on the planet.” I do not understand how anyone outside the right wing media bubble can disapprove of Joe Biden. The economy is better than it was before Covid. We got gun control and infrastructure passed. Insulin is capped at $35. What is wrong with these people?

Everyone must be lying when they say they can't afford a house. I blame the NYT for their biased reporting. How dare they not kiss Biden's ass!

[CookieDamage]

This would be a disaster if he faced anyone other than trump.

In 1992 Clinton was absolutely walloping Bush Sr in the polls once the former wrapped up the Dem nomination. 1980 saw a much more varied polling landscape with Reagan pulling somewhat of an upset. However, he and clinton were popular challengers to unpopular incumbents. Trump is an unpopular challenger to an unpopular incumbent, so it's totally different calculus.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This would be a disaster if he faced anyone other than trump.

In 1992 Clinton was absolutely walloping Bush Sr in the polls once the former wrapped up the Dem nomination. 1980 saw a much more varied polling landscape with Reagan pulling somewhat of an upset. However, he and clinton were popular challengers to unpopular incumbents. Trump is an unpopular challenger to an unpopular incumbent, so it's totally different calculus.

Reagan in the summer of 1980 was actually leading by 20+ points and many pundits thought democrats could lose up to 50 house seats . House democrats decided to basically give up on Carter during the campaign and probably saved quite a few seats while senate democrats did not and you ended up having a massive Republican wave in the senate .

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Bidens approval is horrible but even if it's like 40% on election day it's entirely possible that it could be around 46% among the voting electorate due to turnout dynamics.

[Crumpets]

This is partly why I wait for the conventions before making any definitive predictions about the election. Obama in 2012 especially had a clean pre-convention approval doldrums and post-convention campaign season approval hype. That doesn't mean Biden is going to have the same approval as Obama come election day, and I do agree approval and vote share are pretty strongly correlated, but we still have a a long time in political terms before we even get to where we can guess how Biden's approval will look in November.

[Comrade Funk]

This is partly why I wait for the conventions before making any definitive predictions about the election. Obama in 2012 especially had a clean pre-convention approval doldrums and post-convention campaign season approval hype. That doesn't mean Biden is going to have the same approval as Obama come election day, and I do agree approval and vote share are pretty strongly correlated, but we still have a a long time in political terms before we even get to where we can guess how Biden's approval will look in November.

People keep using Obama's approvals when he had a far better approval rating than Biden at this point.

[GAinDC]

This is partly why I wait for the conventions before making any definitive predictions about the election. Obama in 2012 especially had a clean pre-convention approval doldrums and post-convention campaign season approval hype. That doesn't mean Biden is going to have the same approval as Obama come election day, and I do agree approval and vote share are pretty strongly correlated, but we still have a a long time in political terms before we even get to where we can guess how Biden's approval will look in November.

People keep using Obama's approvals when he had a far better approval rating than Biden at this point.

You only pop out of the woodwork to doom

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I trust God will chose the right person not polls

[2016]

This would be a disaster if he faced anyone other than trump.

In 1992 Clinton was absolutely walloping Bush Sr in the polls once the former wrapped up the Dem nomination. 1980 saw a much more varied polling landscape with Reagan pulling somewhat of an upset. However, he and clinton were popular challengers to unpopular incumbents. Trump is an unpopular challenger to an unpopular incumbent, so it's totally different calculus.

Reagan in the summer of 1980 was actually leading by 20+ points and many pundits thought democrats could lose up to 50 house seats . House democrats decided to basically give up on Carter during the campaign and probably saved quite a few seats while senate democrats did not and you ended up having a massive Republican wave in the senate .

The Republican Party needs to get CRUSHED mate whether you like that or not before it can be rebuilt.

[Crumpets]

This is partly why I wait for the conventions before making any definitive predictions about the election. Obama in 2012 especially had a clean pre-convention approval doldrums and post-convention campaign season approval hype. That doesn't mean Biden is going to have the same approval as Obama come election day, and I do agree approval and vote share are pretty strongly correlated, but we still have a a long time in political terms before we even get to where we can guess how Biden's approval will look in November.

People keep using Obama's approvals when he had a far better approval rating than Biden at this point.

Obama was also re-elected over 5 points ahead in the tipping point state and with 332 electoral votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Polls are rigged to put Trump ahead we saw with MC polls

[Dan the Roman]

Perhaps those polls with Haley up 15% on Biden were accurate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Perhaps those polls with Haley up 15% on Biden were accurate.

No they weren't cmon man Trump 25 up on Biden, no

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Disaster numbers.

[Bojack Horseman]

but his rating from independents is also weak, at 33%

To quote Brian Griffin, “Independent voters are the biggest idiots on the planet.” I do not understand how anyone outside the right wing media bubble can disapprove of Joe Biden. The economy is better than it was before Covid. We got gun control and infrastructure passed. Insulin is capped at $35. What is wrong with these people?

Everyone must be lying when they say they can't afford a house. I blame the NYT for their biased reporting. How dare they not kiss Biden's ass!

Thinking the president controls home prices qualifies one for the title of an idiot.

[Eraserhead]

He only has a good shot because he's up against Trump again.