This is partly why I wait for the conventions before making any definitive predictions about the election. Obama in 2012 especially had a clean pre-convention approval doldrums and post-convention campaign season approval hype. That doesn't mean Biden is going to have the same approval as Obama come election day, and I do agree approval and vote share are pretty strongly correlated, but we still have a a long time in political terms before we even get to where we can guess how Biden's approval will look in November.
Obama was also re-elected over 5 points ahead in the tipping point state and with 332 electoral votes.
