The New Spain - 1987 General Election

[Lumine]

March 1987

The Republic is now firmly established,
but there remains much to be done

CONTEXT: The formation of a broad coalition from the right to the center-left (PP, UCD, PSE) pushed through the new Republican Constitution of 1987, establishing a weak presidency and enacting drastic electoral reform. Despite this, the reform of the healthcare system and other achievements against inflation, the coalition proved unpopular within the government parties themselves, leading PM Guerra to call a snap election before a President could be elected for a full seven year term.

As well as electing a new government, the new Cortes will get to elect said President to replace - or perhaps re-elect - Acting President Areilza.

RULES: The 1977 electoral system was fully replaced by the 1987 Constitution, expanding the Cortes to 400 seats. Partly inspired by the German model, 200 of them are elected through FPTP; and the other 200 through party list PR with a 3% cut off for each federal region.

As a government seeking re-election, the PSE will lose 1% to the largest non-government party. The dice yielded no other penalties or bonuses. The 5% non-left bonus remains.

The Parties:

Partido Popular (PP) - Center-right, Conservatism, Atlanticism / After a year in government as Deputy PM, Calvo-Sotelo is up for a rematch, basing his campaign around the notion of "economic competence". While upholding the usual pro-NATO, law and order, and social conservative planks, the PP is putting all emphasis on the need to battle inflation and jump start the ravaged economy, pledging to pursue substantial economic liberalization across Spain. On the presidential front, the PP intends to re-elect Acting President Areilza, whom they hail as a moderating influence.

Partido Socialista Español (PSE) - Left to center-left, Democratic Socialism, socially liberal / Having won his battles thus far, the mordacious Guerra is back for more, promising the electorate that the Socialists are "just getting started". Claiming that only PSE can lead the Republic into the 90's, Guerra promises the temporary expansion of public employment to tackle unemployment, close coordination with the unions, social liberalization, opposition to NATO and fulfilling entry to the EEC. Playing for the left, Guerra is rumored to be thinking of famed union leader Nicolás Redondo for the Presidency.

Partido Carlista (PC) - Left-wing, Carlism, Titoist / Life-long Carlist and recently Premier of its Navarre stronghold, Mariano Zufía has succeeded the Red Prince after his temporary withdrawal from politics. Seeking to revive the party, Zufía has targeted his appeal against the "centralist government", seeking maximum devolution for the regions and then for local governments within those; as well as dialogue with "alienated nationalist groups". Historic planks on social conservatism and Titoist socialism remain, the party expected to put Carlos Hugo up for the Presidency.

Partido Comunista de España (PCE) - Left-wing, Marxist, pro-Soviet / Having found success last year, the fearsome Ballesteros promises his cadres "one more heave" to surpass the "reactionary Carlists" and "bourgeois Socialists". For PCE, the 1987 Constitution constitutes a betrayal, leading them to propose a new "Popular Constituent Assembly" to establish a People's Republic. The rest of the party's planks remain, ranging from alignment with the Warsaw Pact, to Marxist economics and Euroscepticism. Ballesteros is likely to put up his mentor and former leader Gallego for President.

Unión de Centro Democrático (UCD) - Center to center-left, Progressivism, Liberalism / With Suárez forced to relinquish the leadership, his "shield bearer" Agustín Rodríguez Sahagún has taken up the mantle of centrism. The son of a Civil War Republican, the tireless new leader has embraced the Republic, asserting that it's UCD's job to ensure the nation remains "governable". Thus, the party stands for coalition politics, support for the EEC and an independent foreign policy, tempered economic liberalization, and targeting unemployment over inflation. Suárez is expected to be the presidential nominee.

Izquierda Republicana (IR) - Left-wing, Radicalism, federalism / After the flop of the ecologist-based AR alliance, the IR is on its last gasp but still standing. Recruiting famed writer and poet - and lifelong nonconformist - Antonio Gala as leader, the IR denounces the divisions within the left, declaring its willingness to help bring about a left-wing coalition that restores the spirit of a progressive Republic. Among other planks, the IR defends federalism, secularization and pacifism, pledging to reduce the power of the Church and - controversially - expel the House of Bourbon from Spain.

Three days.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

PC!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the electoral system MMP or MMM? That makes a pretty big difference.

[Lumine]

Is the electoral system MMP or MMM? That makes a pretty big difference.

That's a good question and a very embarrassing one on my end, since it seems I used the wrong term out of inertia. I never contemplated compensation in the PR seats - partly since the government coalition didn't want a fully proportional system -, so the correct term should have been MMM.

(Apologies!)

[S019]

PP

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the electoral system MMP or MMM? That makes a pretty big difference.

That's a good question and a very embarrassing one on my end, since it seems I used the wrong term out of inertia. I never contemplated compensation in the PR seats - partly since the government coalition didn't want a fully proportional system -, so the correct term should have been MMM.

(Apologies!)

Gotcha, no problem.

But this means we really can't afford to split the vote this time. Vote PSE for a strong and stable left-wing government!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PC

[Senator Spiral]

Carlism now, Carlism tomorrow, Carlism forever!

[RGM2609]

It is due time for a People's Republic!

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

PSE, though IR definitely tempts me.

[Continential]

Meant to vote for UCD but accidently voted for IR.

[Elcaspar]

IR for advancing the Republic!

[GoTfan]

PSE. The Republic is in danger until it's consolidated; the government must be headed by the one party proven to be fully committed to the Republic.

[VPH]

Sticking with the Partido Carlista as per usual

[ReallySuper]

the exploited peoples of the spanish state will not let themselves be fooled again by the traitorous bourgeois thugs who strung along the workers in their rise to power only to betray them by wholeheartedly selling out to the derechistas. izquierda republicana has always been the only principled force in spanish politics and finally the people are waking up

[Antonio the Sixth]

Once again the left is winning in a landslide but due to the usual combination of fragmentation and Lumine putting his thumb on the scale, we'll probably be denied an effective left-wing government.

[Lumine]

Once again the left is winning in a landslide but due to the usual combination of fragmentation and Lumine putting his thumb on the scale, we'll probably be denied an effective left-wing government.

(Similarities to the European left in RL are a mere coincidence)

One day left, turnout surges back to 77' levels, PSE and PP fighting for the lead, IR right behind in shock surge.

[RGM2609]

Once again the left is winning in a landslide but due to the usual combination of fragmentation and Lumine putting his thumb on the scale, we'll probably be denied an effective left-wing government.

I don't know, a PSE-IR government might get a majority and be fairly straightforward.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Once again the left is winning in a landslide but due to the usual combination of fragmentation and Lumine putting his thumb on the scale, we'll probably be denied an effective left-wing government.

I don't know, a PSE-IR government might get a majority and be fairly straightforward.

Nah, because of the anti-left penalty PP is going to have a strong lead and sweep the FPP seats.

[Lumine]

And closed! Looks like another hopelessly split parliament and a major scare for Guerra... but the Socialists may yet save the furniture as the only plausible lead for a government. Stay tuned.

(I swear it's not intentional, but there's a certain hilarity in Alfonso Guerra - of all people - falling into pseudo-Pedro Sanchez territory as a survivor thus far)

[Lumine]

Guerra meets his match

1987 General Election

The left prevails under the new system,
and Alfonso Guerra gets the scare of his life

Party		Votes	Seats
PP (Calvo-Sotelo)		26.6%	145 (+24)
PSE (Guerra)		19.2%	92 (-8)
IR (Gala)		19.0%	88 (+88)
PCE (Ballesteros)		11.2%	20 (-25)
PC (Zufía)		8.9%	11 (-37)
UCD (Rodríguez Sahagún)		4.8%	8 (-9)
Nationalists		7.2%	32 (+15)
Others		2.8%	4

Not one year ago, Alfonso Guerra had been seen by many angry and disenchanted swing voters as someone whose dark and dismissive sense of humor more or less voiced some of their frustrations. Although the approach had failed upon the revival of the anti-establishment PCE and the disappointing PSE performance, for the Socialist Premier it was but a bump on the brilliant road he'd built through fire and scorched earth since 1985. After a year in government, and having delivered on the new Republican constitution, this was to be the crowning achievement: the PSE would at long last consolidate the left-wing vote, and coast to a triumph enabled by the new electoral system.

Dismissing the PCE as unelectable and PP as tired and dull, Guerra saw no bumps on the road ahead. He was not wrong in regards to the bulk of his 86' rivals, all of which suffered from a disappointing campaign to one degree or the other. The Popular Party remained stuck in polling within a society that appeared to be at the very least 60 to 65% left wing; Ballesteros was mired in controversy after an initially unequivocal backing of the Soviet Union after Chernobyl blew up in his face; Rodríguez Sahagún had to lead a UCD undergoing rapid decomposition as the political center kept evaporating; and Zufía, the Carlist miracle worker in little Navarre, proved very much out of his depth running a national campaign.

Facing such competition, Guerra still expected to walk it, paying little attention to the reorganization of Izquierda Republicana. At most, he felt, they'd take votes away from Communists and Carlists. He dismissed its new leader too, famously being caught on a microphone stating "I'll send that third rate poet crying back to Córdoba". Little to no opposition research was conducted either. And yet something unexpected happened: the tired masses listened to what the inexperienced poet had to say... and they seemed to like it. A similar hot mic incident only endeared Gala further to people when he was heard to remark "we're being badly governed by a cabinet of pricks". He profusely apologized, but the cheers only got wilder from there.

And then smaller parties of the left jumped on the bandwagon, and so did quite a few regionalists. The Carlist vote was quickly gobbled up and so was a part of the left, and as the polling surge kept going, so did PSE start getting intro trouble. The controlling Guerra lost his nerve, and PSE started to slid. On election night, a stunning surge only comparable to Carlos Hugo's entrance in 79' pushed the resuscitated IR to only 4 seats and 0,2% of the vote behind the Socialists. Had the campaign gone over for another week, stated El Pais, they might well have won. With the left-wing vote thus split, the PP overperformed in the new FPTP seats, only to be once again painfully short of seats and allies.

For the second time, Alfonso Guerra was left as the king of the ashes. The only plausible premier... and now wholly dependent not just on the "third-rate poet", but on the same nationalist parties he had so thoroughly alienated after a year of "centralist" government. Acting President Areilza, who knew he had no shot at being elected President by the new majority left-wing Cortes, allegedly blurted: "Alfonso better learn to say "please" in Catalan right away."